Mini 1401 - Game over!

[Kthxbye]

SK: So 1 more scum AND even night SK? If that were the case, why no kill N2? Possible, but on the 'our mod is fuckin crazy' scale...

[Kthxbye]

I'm still more inclined to think GF or RB. I think that would balance it out pretty closely.

[SaintKerrigan]

Actually, why think NS is a cop, specifically? My thought was that he was some kind of role that could confirm townies without actually being a cop. I was speculating hider, myself.

[SaintKerrigan]

SK: So 1 more scum AND even night SK? If that were the case, why no kill N2? Possible, but on the 'our mod is fuckin crazy' scale...

I was just doing crazy-ass speculating anyway, but it's still possible both kills hit Mala last night, if an even-night SK were a possibility. It's prolly not the actual case, though.

[Kthxbye]

TheConman17

-

Mafia 1xBulletProof Goon

Huntress

-

Town Mason

havingfitz

- Vanilla Townie

qwints

- Mafia Goon

Malakittens

-

Town Mason

rofl:-------------- VT
SiN:-------------- VT
d3x:------------- VT
Slandaar:------- VT
Gorgon:--------- VT
NS:---------------

Cop

SK:--------------- VT
Kthx:-------------

Odd Night Vig

Tis what we have so far if I'm not mistaken. I'll speculate on PR's after we all claim.

Updated

Final

Reposting to put at the top of the page for easy reference.

p.edit: Possible. Either way he's town. Don't wish to waste time speculating HIS role.

[Gorgon]

This is totally wild setup speculation on my part, but 1xBP goon seems overpowered to counter an odd-night vig. What if there's also an even-night serial killer?

It might be overpowered to counter

just

an odd-night vig, but with two masons and a cop (or whatever NS will claim) in the town mix it just might be pretty balanced overall.

I believe the last scum (assuming 3) MUST have a PR. The likely possibilities are God Father or Role Blocker imo. We'll know which soon as NS tells us if he got a result last night. No result = RB, result = GF. I honestly hope he got no result last night because I'd like to cross SK off the list of suspects.

This is pretty much what I was thinking as well.

Now, I've been away awhile, so I don't know if it's out of the question for scum to have a 4-man team or not. Town does seem heavy on the PR's tbh. Thoughts?

I've been away for quite awhile myself as I've no doubt mentioned before. Back in the day the standard size for a mini was 12 players and now it seems to be 13. Scum always seem still to be 3 though. Looking at old games I've yet to see a game with 4.

[Gorgon]

Either way he's town. Don't wish to waste time speculating HIS role.

Yup. He'll show up soon enough no doubt, and I think scum would never softclaim like this that early in a game.

[roflcopter]

regardless, our goal today is to lynch mafia. if the game doesn't end after a third mafia lynch we'll know we're hunting an sk.

on that note, everyone should wait for ns to show up and round out our massclaim, then proceed to pile on sin for the win

[Kthxbye]

I really hope NS claims hider. We'd have 2 conf town then.

[Nobody Special]

Sadly, I'm not a Cop.

I'm Town JOAT. 1-shot each of Gunsmith, RB, Vig.

N1 I gunsmithed SK; no gun. Thus my reversal from D1 > D2 on him.

N2 I didn't send in an action before night ended.

My having one Vig shot is why I was pretty sure there was a Serial killer rather than another Vig, but I see I'm wrong (maybe).

If we don't win today, I have either a kill or a block. Discuss.

[roflcopter]

ns' block is as good as an investigate with two scum already down. should be coordinated so as not to target the same person as kthx's odd night vig shot tonight.

i'm thinking something along the lines of lynch sin, if game is not over vig d3x / roleblock slandaar, if game is still not over (and a mafia kill went through) lynch gorgon... profit

and on top of that we'd have an insurance vig bullet left in ns' pocket if he lives through the night

seems like town autowin from here dudes. hop on the sin bandwagon.

[SaintKerrigan]

I think the most obvious thing to do is to have both NS and kthnx vigging tonight, and that we ought to figure out today their targets. (Unless, of course, we lynch scum today for the win.)

[SaintKerrigan]

i'm thinking something along the lines of lynch sin, if game is not over vig d3x / roleblock slandaar, if game is still not over (and a mafia kill went through) lynch gorgon... profit

Hmm actually this looks interesting. Need to think.

[SaintKerrigan]

So yeah roflcopter's plan is foolproof. Which means he's not scum.

I say we execute the plan, unless the doomed scum decides to hasten the inevitable by giving up and claiming.

[Gorgon]

i'm thinking something along the lines of lynch sin, if game is not over vig d3x / roleblock slandaar, if game is still not over (and a mafia kill went through) lynch gorgon... profit

I support using the roleblock over a vig tonight. The roleblock actually functions as an investigation now that there seems to be just one scum left. No mafia kill -> blocked player is probably scum.

I have been thinking that based on what Kthx has said today he would probably want to vig me tonight if SiN gets lynched (which seems most likely and makes the most sense today IMO, although I must say that from rereading D1 he still looks pretty town on that day, but his later play is not nearly as solid) and turns out to be town - so I have been preparing a defense explaining what makes me unlikely scum that I might post eventually, but then I thought that the best defense is always offense. So this is what I was thinking along those lines ...

I'm not quite sure who is scum if it's not SiN although it seems obvious now that it's highly likely that it's one of Slandaar, d3x, and rofl (in that order of likelihood the way I see it). But killing one of d3x or Slandaar makes a lot of tactical sense since three outcomes are possible:

1) The killed player is scum. Yay.
2) They are both town. The one who didn't get killed stops tunneling on the other and can make himself useful in other more fruitful ways.
3) The surviving player is scum. He then can no longer hide under the smokescreen of tunneling on the killed player.

I don't think it makes much of a difference in the long run who is vigged tonight though, since I think there is very little chance that town loses no matter how this plays out. But that's no reason not to play it as optimally as possible.

[Gorgon]

My having one Vig shot is why I was pretty sure there was a Serial killer rather than another Vig, but I see I'm wrong (maybe).

Actually, the gunsmith thing does fit with a SK, as gunsmiths don't get a guilty result on SKs. But it also fits with a vig since gunsmiths get a guilty result on

those

. So there's still no solid evidence to support an SK.

Also, no cop means that there's no need for a GF, so if the surviving scum has a PR it's probably a blocker IMO. This role would work best for balance against two active town PRs.

[Slandaar]

So, the last scum is in the VT's of;
rofl/sin/d3x/gorgon/Me

the other 3 are basically clear.

Lynch 1
vig 1 leaves 3 with a rb/vig

if vig leaves 2, scum shoot leaves 2/2 is not a win with RB left or Vig after lynch (both is win but scum won't leave both)
if rb town leaves 2 suspects alive
Scum shoot clear leaves 3 clear town alive with one of the 3 clear + the original 2 = 3/2 so that is a win lynch/lynch remaining unclear.

if rb town + scum doesn't shoot, leaves 3 clear and 3 unclear still, but assume the rb'ed is lynched leaves 3/2 scum shot + NS shot is 2/1 is a win.

if rb scum basically is the same scenario as above except lynch on rb'ed player is the win.

The only issue is when Scum have another PR.

So;
JOAT/Masons/ONVig

Seems quite a lot; scum had 1shot bp/goon/unknown, I think its close, if they have another PR it is probably something weak and I honestly can't think of what, odd night mafia doctor? seems outrageous honestly so I think we are ok to follow the rb plan for an autowin.

Basically (I know my workings out are a mess) Vig tonight from NS and vig from kthx doesn't guarantee win, RB however does as long as the RB'ed player is lynched if no kill from scum AND scum have no other PR which I think is likely; there really isn't anything scum RB is too strong for the setup with 1shot bp a second 1shot bp? then the vig shots are absolutely pointless.

Will check this later after work to make sure I didn't screw it up horribly but I think it is right.

[Gorgon]

I think its close, if they have another PR it is probably something weak and I honestly can't think of what, odd night mafia doctor?

A mafia doc would actually work pretty well for balance, come to think of it. He could protect against the viggings and would also not be detected by a gunsmith investigation (Regarding that role I am of course going by what's in the wiki btw, for reference). This possibility does of course mean that SK could in theory still be scum but I don't think that's very likely. It depends on too many contingencies to really take that thought seriously.

[Gorgon]

Oh, I have an idea. I offer myself up to be blocked tonight. The scum then has the option to kill and pretty much confirm me as town, or not kill and pretty much royally bone himself as he would most likely (the way I've calculated it) end up, in his very best case scenario, in a 3-player LyLo against two of {Kthx, NS and SK} which would be a complete a nightmare for him; this is assuming that scum is not to be found among these three which is a highly likely assumption. The most likely (relatively speaking) among these to be scum is SK but if he is he will probably end up in a 3-player LyLo no matter what town does anyway.

I dare anyone to explain how this offer makes any sort of tactical sense for me if I am scum, since if it is accepted and acted upon it will make the most sense for town to lynch me tomorrow if there is no mafia kill to eliminate me as a suspect no matter what I say, and I would not object to it.

The only thing that could throw a spanner in these works is if the scum is a RB though ... that would complicate things somewhat but I still think it's a good plan to try.

[Slandaar]

I actually meant even night so that the vig/doc didn't clash (a counter to JOAT sort of thing) odd night would be too strong as it would give 2/3 scum immunity to odd night vig making the vig fairly useless for town.

But yes, unlikely, it would only matter if it was SK which is too wildtheoryesque to worry about.

[roflcopter]

its not going to be a mafia doc. why would mafia have a 1xbulletproof and a doc.

look we have enough town directed kills left to clean up pretty much every unconfirmed person myself included, so lets just get on with it. the last scum is 99% either sin or d3x.

[Gorgon]

Yeah ...

VOTE: Singer is Nachomamma

*Throws egg on own face*

[Gorgon]

As to why I'm unlikely scum, I think the main reason is to be found in my play against qwints near the end of yesterday. I realize I am invoking WIFOM here, which I have berated other players for doing, but Slandaar did make a very good point regarding it in #719.

Anyways, "All you have to do is divine from what you know of me. Am I the sort of man who would go after his partner like that near the end of the day and end up in the hopless position I am in now?"

There were unpredictable factors in play but I still think I would have been taking a huge and needless risk as scum. I think this post is particularily pertinent as I kept pushing hard on qwints while defending both Slandaar and rofl. It pushed Kthx away from Slandaar and I like to that believe that my push against qwints had a lot to do with him ending up getting lynched. He was getting away with lurking and not answering important questions and I spotted it and kept the case going. Of course, as scum I could not have predicted, for instance, that he would keep ignoring me - but there still would always have been leeway for me to play this more tactically, such as not pushing that hard, lurking a bit more or like, you know, not explicitly defending others from getting lynched.

I am a pretty risk averse guy and I am pretty sure that I would never have done what I did as scum. And risk aside, it would just have been stupid play IMO, and I like to think that I'm not stupid.

But it's up to the rest of you to make of this what you will of course.

[d3x]

I say we Lynch one of teh VTs, then have Kthx and NS both Vig Tonight. I'd have both declare targets so there's no crossfire. If NS RB's Tonight, there's a chance he will be NKed before being able to Vig. Short of Scum FakeClaiming one of our PRs {almost impossible}, I don't see how we can lose this.

I don't see SiN being our remaining Scum, but the weeding out has to start somewhere.

VOTE: SiN

[Kthxbye]

Everyone list their top 2 town reads of the claimed vt's please.