Mini 1439 -- Game Over

Ztife · Post Post #950 (ISO) » Fri May 31, 2013 9:55 am

Again with the misquotes and role fishing.

You keep saying that RC could be vig because he's the only claim despite being proved that odds are low.
You keep saying that if we kill SK, town loses because it could be a 3scum + SK setup, which is low chance. In a SK + 2 scum scenario, we need RC lynched, but you would rather risk a mislynch and possible end game odds with a multi-ball setup.
You keep insisting there's no PR when no one claim, yet a player of your experience refuse to believe that there could be unclaimed PR.

why would the pr not have claimed?

All we have are setup speculations. Would a doc claim help with anything? Sure, it makes the setup more "balanced", but end of the day its still speculation. Would a doc knows if he did a successful protect? Even if we have a claim doc, does it means we automatically know the setup? Does a claim doc automatically means we have a multi-ball? It doesn't, and at this point we need our doc to stay hidden for our odds of winning to increase. Its bizarre how you totally eliminate this explanation and choose to stick to your vig/3scum+sk theory. Incidentally you were the one who pushed the mass claim.

If we lynch RC and he's SK, our odds of winning increase because we dont have to risk 2 NKs.

we may just need to lynch you and then the impotent sk.

There's no reason for scum to want to lynch an impotent SK.

I have explained why town PR should not claim and why this could still potentially be a multi-ball. Im townie, therefore I know we don't have much room for error today and we need to have the SK lynched. In the most likely scenario that this is multi-ball or a 2scum+sk setup we will need SK lynch today, because this could potentially snuff out one more kill tonight.

A town PR, single target NK from 2 factions, or either mafia not killing/messing up/gambit. All it takes is 1 for setup speculations to be balanced.

Unfortunately you don't see this, you seem to keep harping on the fact that this is 3scum+sk or RC is vig, and additionally there is no town PR, which is just hilarious. Your adamant attitude in defending RC and finding "scum" by repeatedly attacking my words from different angles just suggests that this is a multi-ball and you need to lynch the last scum to win.

I could keep explaining this to you, but you always seem to choose to stick to the bizarre odds. You are right, because there is no 100% way of determining roles and there is always a small catch in any theory. But over here we are trying to stick to the bigger odds and give ourselves the best chance to win the game, but your mind is already set to the point of defending RC ridiculously. This implies heavily to me that you are scum buddies with RC.

I could make a case from previous days about DJ, but quite frankly im too lazy to ATM. As I have said repeatedly RC's flip is key to determining the setup and finding the remaining scum and as much as possible, im opposed keeping SK alive because there could be 2 NKs, and im opposed to lynching SAS's partner in terms of multi-ball. Thus EPM (my highest suspect) will be safe for today. As paradoxical as it may sound, lynching SK gives us the highest chance of winning, UNLESS YOU STILL BELIEVE THAT ITS 3SCUM + SK OR RC IS A VIG.

evilpacman18 · Post Post #951 (ISO) » Fri May 31, 2013 10:28 am

I love how I went from possible SAS partner to his highest suspect without even posting. Ztife is absolutely scum.

Ztife · Post Post #952 (ISO) » Fri May 31, 2013 10:36 am

you're my highest suspect for sas partner, not sure how you misrep that.

If you think im absolute scum, put your weight in your words and vote for me then. Because eitherway we need all 4 of us to get RC or we lose. Simple as that.

evilpacman18 · Post Post #953 (ISO) » Fri May 31, 2013 10:38 am

vote: Ztife

don_johnson · Post Post #954 (ISO) » Fri May 31, 2013 5:45 pm

i'm not wall posting with you anymore ztife. i can't imagine a scenario where you are town and arguing this insanely against common sense and hard evidence.

i think 2p scum/sk/vanillatown is more likely than multi-ball.

i think 3pscum/townwithvig is more likely than multi-ball.

based on those two scenarios, there is no need to lynch RC today. he can be dealt with tomorrow. only player who really needs him lynched today would be a scum player. so whatevz.

enjoy your noose.

penguin: i am starting to think it is more likely 3pscum vs town with vig. lets make sure to take a hard look at everyone tomorrow. i say this because you are the only player here i trust as absolute town and one of us may not be here in the morning. but who knows. i'm not sure what more we can get out of this day, but if we want more discussion i am fine with that. personally i am ready to lynch ztife. i can't see him flipping town after this nonsensical ranting.

RadiantCowbells · Post Post #955 (ISO) » Fri May 31, 2013 6:19 pm

Going V/LA for two days

unvoting so that no one hammers in my absence and we get more discussion time in.

evilpacman18 · Post Post #956 (ISO) » Fri May 31, 2013 6:53 pm

do we particularly need more discussion time?

Ztife · Post Post #957 (ISO) » Fri May 31, 2013 9:18 pm

We're not gonna win with a stupid town in our hands. Good job bringing EPM to the last day, scums deserve this win.

MrBump · Post Post #958 (ISO) » Sat Jun 01, 2013 12:08 am

In post 940, don_johnson wrote:penguin: thanks for paying attention. i am starting to lean the same direction thinking that bump is just angry with me and will never see eye to eye.

bump: how do you feel about epm?

Bump hasn't posted for a day or two and Bump also posted why your connection with SAS is cripplingly bad, but do keep ignoring me.

EPM is Town.

Doc/RB can be Mafia Roles. Mafia tend not to claim their roles. It seems more likely they might have a Doc/RB for multi-ball, too, even though I don't think it is multi-ball.

Did RC not do the proper unvote tags? I'm not sure if that's L-1 or not...

If we seriously lynch Ztife over this I will cry myself to sleep and if he's scum I'll probably smash my head off a wall for being wrong but I just simply cannot understand how we can ignore simple logic.

The last four pages have literally been Ztife and DJ posting walls against each other and both refusing to acknowledge each other's logic while DJ gets angrier and angrier and Ztife gets more and more frustrated. I still think we're far better off lynching RC if just because we know for a fact he's 100% either Vig or SK and it's a hell of a lot more likely to be SK. It's better to lynch someone who's a likely SK than just taking shots in the dark at people we disagree with.

Honestly, I can still see Ztife as Scum, but I just see DJ a hell of a lot more.

MrBump · Post Post #959 (ISO) » Sat Jun 01, 2013 12:17 am

Oh, and I never replied to the "optimal scum play in one sentence". I'll give you a few sentences more, mmkah?

Let's assume the setup is currently one scum, one SK and four VT like I believe it is. The scum in this scenario would suspect the same as two Scum vs 11 Town isn't really fair. If the scum lynches the SK today, they go into Day 5 in four-way MyLo and I believe at this point the scum could probably be caught easily. However, if the SK is

not

lynched and Town is mislynched instead, the Scum knows they're invincible for the night as if the SK shoots him, he's claiming SK as he only had two shots before and he fired another one, meaning Town instantly win. Scum lynches SK, kills overnight and wins. Of course, that relies on Scum not being lynched today, but I do think that optimal scum play does not plan to get lynched.

don_johnson · Post Post #960 (ISO) » Sat Jun 01, 2013 4:01 am

whatevz. most likely scenario we all seem to agree on is 1 scum, 1 sk, 4 townies. if that is the case, then ztife is the scum. because ONLY the scum needs the sk lynched TODAY. i don't get how you don't see that. the possibility that there could be two scum left is why you lynch scum over sk in this situation, with the possibility of sk being vig adding to the weight of that decision.

its pretty standard shit. you NEVER lynch the sk in this situation. you go for scum, especially when they make themselves obvious by trying to twist logic and convince everyone that the sk NEEDS to be lynched. only scum NEEDS that.

no, RC did not unvote, which certainly leans towards sk play. but it is irrelevant as i have been saying all along. we need scum here and ztife is a really good bet. but whatevz.

don_johnson · Post Post #961 (ISO) » Sat Jun 01, 2013 4:03 am

bump, if theres a mafia doc and an sk(or multi-ball), how do you explain a powerless town? that don't make sense.

Ztife · Post Post #962 (ISO) » Sat Jun 01, 2013 5:17 am

In post 960, don_johnson wrote:whatevz. most likely scenario we all seem to agree on is 1 scum, 1 sk, 4 townies. if that is the case, then ztife is the scum. because ONLY the scum needs the sk lynched TODAY. i don't get how you don't see that. the possibility that there could be two scum left is why you lynch scum over sk in this situation, with the possibility of sk being vig adding to the weight of that decision.

its pretty standard shit. you NEVER lynch the sk in this situation. you go for scum, especially when they make themselves obvious by trying to twist logic and convince everyone that the sk NEEDS to be lynched. only scum NEEDS that.

no, RC did not unvote, which certainly leans towards sk play. but it is irrelevant as i have been saying all along. we need scum here and ztife is a really good bet. but whatevz.

Why would I need SK dead today if i'm scum? What difference would it make if its tomorrow? You keep saying this, but I see no justification.
Also, you're still on the far fetched idea that it could be 3scum+sk, and vig to justify that a scum me would need SK dead today because simply you have no other explaination.
In which in any other case, it would be safer and make alot more sense to lynch RC whom we are sure off, and check for the flip, rather than "obvscum ztife".

Unfortunately its pointless arguing between me and you because as far as I know, you're anti-town. Good job winning EPM over because we will need all 4 to stand any chance at all. Im sure penguin will see this as well. What makes me mad is all the posting and not realizing the predicament we are in and going with an OMGUS vote. Yeah I think EPM is scummy. I've said that all game and I have tried to pressure vote him to posting as well in the earlier days. There's no inconsistency in that. But fact is we need RC dead today to have an idea what this setup could be. Someone who spends time reading comments about himself rather than seeing what is needed to be done for him just deserves to lose. #951 1 sentence reply after our whole exchange just ticks me off. After half the town is dead and only one anti-town flipped and you think we have the luxury to take chances and "scum hunt, we can always lynch the obvscum/anti-town another day" then something must be seriously wrong with your logic, or you're just anti-town.

Also, I've overlooked that SAS's partner AKA EPM can possibly want to lynch a townie at this point. One of you will be NKed by him tonight, and if you cross-fire EPM then town wins. Otherwise it turns into a 3 way fight D5 which possibly ends in a draw.

If he's town and he decides to OMGUS instead of looking at the mountain of exchanges we have, then we deserves to lose. He practically spent about 20minutes in this entire game anyways.

don_johnson · Post Post #963 (ISO) » Sat Jun 01, 2013 5:48 am

Ztife wrote: Why would I need SK dead today if i'm scum? What difference would it make if its tomorrow? You keep saying this, but I see no justification.

you aren't this dense. sk could shoot you overnight, eliminating your chance to win. sk may be bp, which you may already know or think, making killing him at night impossible. so yeah. plenty of motive for scum to want and/or need sk dead. i'm done explaining this.

ztife wrote:Also, you're still on the far fetched idea that it could be 3scum+sk, and vig to justify that a scum me would need SK dead today because simply you have no other explaination.

a) neither scenario is far fetched. b) 2p scum + sk fits this scenario just fine as well. i am not on any single idea. i am taking all of the possibilities and making the best judgement call.

ztife wrote:In which in any other case, it would be safer and make alot more sense to lynch RC whom we are sure off, and check for the flip, rather than "obvscum ztife".

nope. we are not "sure of" anything except RC has nk powers of some sort and that the evidence suggests those powers are limited or that he is bp or both. considering that there are no claimed town pr's, that increases the odds of him actually being vig. so vig or sk is way more likely than scumRC given the evidence. and there is no reason to lynch RC when we have caught scum. caught scum is the guy who is desperately trying anything he can to get RC lynched.

ztife wrote:But fact is we need RC dead today to have an idea what this setup could be.

most likely, given the evidence, lynching RC is death knell for town.

ztife wrote: Someone who spends time reading comments about himself rather than seeing what is needed to be done for him just deserves to lose. #951 1 sentence reply after our whole exchange just ticks me off. After half the town is dead and only one anti-town flipped and you think we have the luxury to take chances and "scum hunt, we can always lynch the obvscum/anti-town another day" then something must be seriously wrong with your logic, or you're just anti-town.

i have been in this situation countless times. i have lynched vig's and lost as town, i have played as scum in this position and done exactly what you are doing which is to try and convince town that the sk needs to be lynched. i have played as sk and claimed vig. i have been lynched as vig. in all my years of experience, lynching the sk/vig in this scenario is the wrong move.

ztife wrote:Also, I've overlooked that SAS's partner AKA EPM can possibly want to lynch a townie at this point. One of you will be NKed by him tonight, and if you cross-fire EPM then town wins. Otherwise it turns into a 3 way fight D5 which possibly ends in a draw.

i'm not scum, so whatevz. i'm not so sure epm is scum at this point either. i agree, that if you are town, then this is the wrong move. but i think you are scum.

ztife wrote:If he's town and he decides to OMGUS instead of looking at the mountain of exchanges we have, then we deserves to lose. He practically spent about 20minutes in this entire game anyways.

wonderful AtE. wonderful. your feigned concern about the fate of our town is moving.

MrBump · Post Post #964 (ISO) » Sat Jun 01, 2013 6:24 am

I don't. I'm explaining Ztife's thought process to the best of my own knowledge. Stop putting words in my mouth.

I just explained why lynching into five people hoping to hit Scum is incredibly risky. You thinking Ztife is Scum does not make him Scum. If he is, it's a good lynch, but it's too risky. I literally just explained and you ignored my post completely and utterly with a "whatevz". You asked the question for what I assume was information or to understand my thought process then proceeded to not even accept that it existed?

DJ wrote:sk could shoot you overnight, eliminating your chance to win

YEP YOU DEFINITELY IGNORED MY FUCKING POST

YOU FLAT OUT DID NOT READ WHAT I JUST SAID

THAT IS MY ONLY EXPLANATION

WHAT THE FUCK

YOU ARE LITERALLY NOT EVEN READING THE ARGUMENTS PRESENTED

THAT IS WHY WE ARE GOING IN CIRCLES, LADIES AND GENTLEMEN

don_johnson · Post Post #965 (ISO) » Sat Jun 01, 2013 7:21 am

bump: you are ignoring the possibiliity that RC is vig. you are also ignoring the possibility 3pscum + sk.

i read your post. i just disagree. thats why we are going in circles. you need to let it go. if we lynch RC and he is vig, then its a town loss. if we lynch RC and he flips sk then it is either a town loss to 3p scum, or surviving 2pscum kills overnight and we go to 4p mylo. in that instance i agree with you that it

may

be easier to find scum. but what if the 4p left are you, me, ztife, and epm? thats basically where we have to choose from today. noone but ztife is buying into the multi-ball theory as far as i can tell. ztife is just using fear mongering to push the RC lynch. the only way the RC lynch helps us is if he flips scum, which is the least likely ting for him to flip given the evidence. but whatevz. let's try again:

do you think penguin is town?

would you consider a no lynch today?

why do you think ztife is town? let's start there because we are not agreeing on the best course of action atm.

don_johnson · Post Post #966 (ISO) » Sat Jun 01, 2013 7:41 am

ok. consider my vote on ztife as still there. but

unvote

i have a few conclusions to share but i will do that later. in the meantime i want bump to answer the questions. lets cut the angry rhetoric, bump. just answer the questions i asked. ask some of me if you need to.

RC:

who are the 2 final scum and why?

who did you shoot and why?

penguin:

what is your read on bump?

epm:

what is your read on bump?

evilpacman18 · Post Post #967 (ISO) » Sat Jun 01, 2013 8:40 am

I'm pretty sure bump is town, I've played with him over multiple sites and known him for a good 3 or 4 years, we've been in a hydra together, the only reason I replaced into this game is because we haven't played together in a while, etc., so I like to think I'm pretty solid at reading when his rage is town him actually mad because he thinks everyone is being an idiot, and when he's just faking it to match his meta. Pay attention to the fact that he's not using his perception of you not even trying to listen to him as an excuse to side with ztife in lynching you. He genuinely wants to be understood, which is obv town.

RadiantCowbells · Post Post #968 (ISO) » Sat Jun 01, 2013 10:16 am

VOTE: Unvote

I would consider a NL today, yes.

@Ztife- I may be OMGusing to an extent, but you have a deathtunnel on town, and if you weren't scum I'd need your vote to lynch scum.

don_johnson · Post Post #969 (ISO) » Sat Jun 01, 2013 4:53 pm

RC: answer the questions.

epm: thanks. i am going to try and understand him.

penguin_alien · Post Post #970 (ISO) » Sat Jun 01, 2013 6:48 pm

In post 954, don_johnson wrote:penguin: i am starting to think it is more likely 3pscum vs town with vig.

Since RC is still avoiding answering my question, how do you reconcile his incredibly anti-town behavior with his claim? Add in his AtE:

In post 926, RadiantCowbells wrote:I believe that's game for town.

Ztife and EPM as a scumteam makes little sense so there's at least one town willing to vote me, so getting a lynch on legitimate scum is impossible.

GG WP. Sorry if I wasn't the best PR, town.

We have a week. The wagon he's pushing is at L-1 at the time he posted this. Where is that coming from?

Bottom line, for whatever reasons our goals converge: no lynching RC, attempt to lynch scum.

MrBump is probably the least likely scum as far as I can tell. evilpacman18 is establishing some town reads at this stage of the game, and given how things have been shifting, I'm not sure he as scum would commit so heavily to town reads right now. scum-evilpacman18 has little motivation to explain with such conviction why MrBump is looking towny, and I tend to agree that MrBump isn't seizing on disagreements as reasons to push a lynch as would be quite easy to do as scum here.

So it's Ztife, who SAS ignores and lots of eliminated town players wanted dead, or don_johnson, who might be playing me.

No real conclusion yet except that I'm not in a very 'trust my reads' place right now.

Ztife · Post Post #971 (ISO) » Sat Jun 01, 2013 9:42 pm

In post 963, don_johnson wrote:
Ztife wrote: Why would I need SK dead today if i'm scum? What difference would it make if its tomorrow? You keep saying this, but I see no justification.
you aren't this dense. sk could shoot you overnight, eliminating your chance to win. sk may be bp, which you may already know or think, making killing him at night impossible. so yeah. plenty of motive for scum to want and/or need sk dead. i'm done explaining this.

ztife wrote:Also, you're still on the far fetched idea that it could be 3scum+sk, and vig to justify that a scum me would need SK dead today because simply you have no other explaination.
a) neither scenario is far fetched. b) 2p scum + sk fits this scenario just fine as well. i am not on any single idea. i am taking all of the possibilities and making the best judgement call.

ztife wrote:In which in any other case, it would be safer and make alot more sense to lynch RC whom we are sure off, and check for the flip, rather than "obvscum ztife".
nope. we are not "sure of" anything except RC has nk powers of some sort and that the evidence suggests those powers are limited or that he is bp or both. considering that there are no claimed town pr's, that increases the odds of him actually being vig. so vig or sk is way more likely than scumRC given the evidence. and there is no reason to lynch RC when we have caught scum. caught scum is the guy who is desperately trying anything he can to get RC lynched.

ztife wrote:But fact is we need RC dead today to have an idea what this setup could be.
most likely, given the evidence, lynching RC is death knell for town.

ztife wrote: Someone who spends time reading comments about himself rather than seeing what is needed to be done for him just deserves to lose. #951 1 sentence reply after our whole exchange just ticks me off. After half the town is dead and only one anti-town flipped and you think we have the luxury to take chances and "scum hunt, we can always lynch the obvscum/anti-town another day" then something must be seriously wrong with your logic, or you're just anti-town.
i have been in this situation countless times. i have lynched vig's and lost as town, i have played as scum in this position and done exactly what you are doing which is to try and convince town that the sk needs to be lynched. i have played as sk and claimed vig. i have been lynched as vig. in all my years of experience, lynching the sk/vig in this scenario is the wrong move.

ztife wrote:Also, I've overlooked that SAS's partner AKA EPM can possibly want to lynch a townie at this point. One of you will be NKed by him tonight, and if you cross-fire EPM then town wins. Otherwise it turns into a 3 way fight D5 which possibly ends in a draw.
i'm not scum, so whatevz. i'm not so sure epm is scum at this point either. i agree, that if you are town, then this is the wrong move. but i think you are scum.

ztife wrote:If he's town and he decides to OMGUS instead of looking at the mountain of exchanges we have, then we deserves to lose. He practically spent about 20minutes in this entire game anyways.
wonderful AtE. wonderful. your feigned concern about the fate of our town is moving.

@penguin
What do you think are the possibilities of town winning if we hit scum and town losing if we hit town?

In your perceived case where im scum, what difference does it make to lynch me tomorrow than now when you are more or less sure that RC is SK?
Assuming im scum and RC is SK and the rest is 4 townies. Lynching me and SK does not make a difference, except that if I flip town we lose.
Assuming im scum and RC is SK, and I have another scum buddy and there's 3 townies. This is unlikely to begin with, and whether you lynch scum or SK at town has already loss. I could type our the scenarios AGAIN but if you take a bit of time and picture it you will see this.

MrBump · Post Post #972 (ISO) » Sat Jun 01, 2013 11:55 pm

Penguin wrote:So it's Ztife, who SAS ignores and lots of eliminated town players wanted dead, or don_johnson, who might be playing me.

It's worth nothing that DJ doesn't even say SAS's name or mention him once in the entire game before his flip.

Coming round more to the idea of Ztife, he made some poor posts in earlier days but if I had to lynch one person not called RC, it'd still be DJ.

2birds1stone · Post Post #973 (ISO) » Sun Jun 02, 2013 1:31 am

Vote Count 4.6

penguin_alien (0)
RadiantCowbells (1) -- Ztife
MrBump (0)
don_johnson (0)
Ztife (1) -- evilpacman18
evilpacman18 (0)

Not voting -- penguin_alien, MrBump, RadiantCowbells, don_johnson,

With six alive, it takes four to lynch

Day Four ends in (expired on 2013-06-08 22:51:00)

don_johnson · Post Post #974 (ISO) » Sun Jun 02, 2013 6:43 am

penguin_alien wrote:
Since RC is still avoiding answering my question, how do you reconcile his incredibly anti-town behavior with his claim?

thats the hard part. and the more this goes on the more likely i think he is actually sk and not vig. i need him to answer my questions. either way, i think ztife's push to get rid of the sk before scum is worth lynching first. ztife is correct, if he is the final scum and RC is sk, then it really doesn't matter which player we lynch today, i would personally just err on the side of caution. once RC answers my questions i will expand more on my recent conclusions.

penguin wrote: MrBump is probably the least likely scum as far as I can tell.

i agree. there is really only one scenario in which i believe bump could be scum at this point. i'll expand later.

penguin wrote:So it's Ztife, who SAS ignores and lots of eliminated town players wanted dead, or don_johnson, who might be playing me.

No real conclusion yet except that I'm not in a very 'trust my reads' place right now.

i can see where this is coming from. it makes no sense for scumdj to fight so hard in defence of an alleged sk. literally no sense.

bump wrote:It's worth nothing that DJ doesn't even say SAS's name or mention him once in the entire game before his flip.

Coming round more to the idea of Ztife, he made some poor posts in earlier days but if I had to lynch one person not called RC, it'd still be DJ.

i would have to look back as i don't recall interacting with SAS, but i don't remember him as being a big factor or participant in this game. and my first two days were mainly just coasting. but i guess i have to rely on your common sense as well here. why would scumdj be fighting to keep the alleged sk around? if he is sk, theres a good chance he is bulletproof and theres a good chance scum would know that. so yeah. i don't know. if you have any questions here just ask. i will post a bit more once RC answers the questions.

RC: ANSWER THE QUESTIONS