Open 540 - a C9 + + (Over)

[~Jordan`]

DDD doesn't seem like the safest lynch here.

There are four possible groupings of scum from my results

Drake - DDD - GS
Drake - DDD - ???
Drake - GS - ???
DDD - GS - ???

If we rule out DDD-GS, then Drake is scum in all four possible groupings.
What's the point of a massclaim if we don't use the information we get from it??

[Gunslinger]

Wow that's a lot of do what I want or it's useless.

Answer why Beast is obvtown. It colors everything you are doing.

There is

DDD -- Beast --- ???

You are missing that one.

You are also missing

Beast --- DC -- ???

While I don't see this as likely, I don't see how it is impossible from a cop POV.

Also if you rule out DDD GS, you only have two scenarios available not three (the first has DDD GS in it).

Why are you so resistent if lynching any of the people insite confirms your theory?

The more you are talking, the less I am liking this Jordan.

I'd like someone else to come in and talk for a moment.

[Gunslinger]

Also, I am using this information to see what is going on and it colors why we should no lynch. The scums have to give us more information if you are indeed town or they have to confirm you. I'd like to see which they choose as neither is a good position if you are cop but some of your language (the town) will suck if you are gone. Why didn't you say we? It almost seems like you view the town as an outside entity.

[Aegor]

I have only the most rudimentary understanding of what is going on.

It seems to me that the most productive thing to do is to ask these two questions to everyone:

1) Do you believe BC's Vig claim?
2) Do you believe Jordan's Cop claim?

Everyone: go

My answers:

1) Yes.
2) Meh; idk. I hate mylo claims but I will need to think about this for a few days. The timing bothers me and it could be a way to expedite a scum victory, but it hardly seems worth it for scum to gambit so unnecessarily. Of course, we could always no lynch, but some people seem bloodthirsty. And if Jordan is scum, we still are just postponing the inevitable anyway.

[~Jordan`]

Answer why Beast is obvtown. It colors everything you are doing.

His play is textbook eager VI. His claim has been consistently town. Just look at his "I'ma vig RC schtick".
Besides, if he were scum, he would have claimed 1-shot vig midprocess in order to introduce setup ambiguity and protect himself if another PR claimed.

He has been my clearest townread all game and I don't understand why it surprises you that I've never doubted him.

Why are you so resistent if lynching any of the people insite confirms your theory?

One of those three people is probable town, GS. There's a godfather in the game, GS. So just lynching anyone won't do, GS. We have to avoid a mislynch, GS.

You observed less than a page ago that there's a godfather, so once again I'm quite confused about what you're going on about. How can you expect me to be okay with lynching DDD when your posting seems so frantic right now?

[~Jordan`]

I have only the most rudimentary understanding of what is going on.

It seems to me that the most productive thing to do is to ask these two questions to everyone:

1) Do you believe BC's Vig claim?
2) Do you believe Jordan's Cop claim?

Everyone: go

My answers:

1) Yes.
2) Meh; idk. I hate mylo claims but I will need to think about this for a few days. The timing bothers me and it could be a way to expedite a scum victory, but it hardly seems worth it for scum to gambit so unnecessarily. Of course, we could always no lynch, but some people seem bloodthirsty. And if Jordan is scum, we still are just postponing the inevitable anyway.

More questions:
3) If I am cop, aren't I right that Drake is the most probable scumlynch??
4) Lynch today or tomorrow?

[~Jordan`]

Why do I always think things like these will go beautifully??

Bottom line, guys.
Right now, I'm only open to a Drake or a No Lynch. I have a midterm to study for. Scum are Drake / GS / Aegor and should be lynched in that order. You guys have at it.

Why didn't you say we? It almost seems like you view the town as an outside entity.

If I'm dead, I don't get to participate in lynches anymore.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

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[RadiantCowbells]

Hi hi.

Detailed response later

[~Jordan`]

should i sleep and then study
or study and then sleep

[~Jordan`]

i choose both!

[DeasVail]

No lynch is the proper procedure here, unless we have outed scum. However, it should come AFTER massclaim and all discussion.

Ok, now this is just odd to me. Why after massclaim and discussion? My impression is that it would be best to limit discussion (especially claiming!) as much as possible if taking the no lynch route, so that scum have less idea of who to kill going into night.

Me being alive serves no purpose right now. I will serve a purpose if we ever lynch the RB but my lynch actually helps the town. It gives them the information that I am right about the RB. I don't care if I get lynched.

Uhhh...?

~~

Ok, Jordan ended up becoming my strongest townread going into today, and I still think he's town now. There are many things that don't make any sense from scum, and while it's obviously possible that I've been completely fooled, I think I'm just going to assume he's town and hope for the best.

The other thing I'll say is that I don't like Gunslinger's sudden reversal on Jordan following the claim, especially using the Hermy thing as a point, when I think it's pretty irrelevant? I know I don't usually target my no. 1 scumread as an investigative role. If I already know they're scum, why should I? However, I have become very unsure recently about my previous feelings about Gunslinger, and I'm not sure that I'm sticking by what I said earlier. I'll sort it out later.

I'm going to try going through what I think the possible scumteams are, but I'm not ISOing people tonight, so some things (and ruling out unlikely pairings) will be based on the impressions I've gotten and I may change my mind later.

So I'm going with Jordan-town and me-town.

I think that beast is town. Him getting upset about the whole RC thing, where scum would know they were just faking the whole being roleblocked thing, is really weird from scum, and while it could theoretically be planned out, that kind of thing doesn't generally happen, especially with the early claim suggesting that he's not super savvy if scum (no offence beast). I may include DDD/beast as a possible pair here though, as I could see DDD telling beast to do something like that.

Aegor not rolling with Jordan's claim as a GF seems unlikely unless he's scum with Drake, as if he was scum with Drake-town, then I'm pretty sure he'd be able to get that lynch fairly easily from his PoV?

Fairly incompatible scumpairs from memory are DDD/RC and Drake/beast. I'll look more closely at this later.

So, the possible trios I'm thinking of are:

DDD/Beast/Gunslinger
Aegor/DDD/Drake
Aegor/Gunslinger/Drake
RC/Gunslinger/Drake? (I'm not sure how I feel about RC-scum)
DDD/Drake/Gunslinger

That seems like it to me, but I'm tired so am probably missing something and I've probably made too manty assumptions. I'll look at things more closely later.

As for actual reads on people, I'm planning to reconsider pretty well all of them, so that will happen too.

[Drake Crusader]

I have to digest this claim from jordan later on. At this moment I still don't see BC as town in anyway. Don't like his claim and would be certain of his lynching today.
DDD seems town to me. Aegor does not. I feel that he has rigged the results to protect one of his scum partners.

[~Jordan`]

BC is flawless and you know it. I completely agree that Aegor doesn't seem town and have said so. But we can't lynch him today.

[Aegor]

Aegor does not. I feel that he has rigged the results to protect one of his scum partners.

What? How does that make any sense? I actually do not even know what you mean.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

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[~Jordan`]

Ladies and gentlemen.

I have decided to take up the responsibility from now on of reposting everything DDD says in a font that is legible.

All scenarios work off the “assumption” that I’m town since I am and I’m assuming if you’re lying about your role that you’re scum.

Scenario 1) Jordan and BC are both telling the truth. Setup is TTVVCCC which means scum have a godfather, role blocker, and goon. Gunslinger and Drake Crusader are both scum (goon and roleblocker) and one of RC, Aegor, and DV is the godfather that Jordan returned an innocent on.

Lynch DC or Gunslinger ->
a) If we lynch the roleblocker then scum probably have to kill Jordan because they have to leave RC/Aegor/DV alive for maximum WIFOM and me and other player as possible scum pairs. They could kill BC but then Jordan gets to investigate me/other player and we have a confirmed lynch of another scum in the other of DC/Gunslinger the next day before a no lynch into a likely DDD/DV/Aegor/RC MYLO and then a DV/Aegor/RC LYLO.
b) If we don’t lynch the roleblocker then things get a fair amount worse and scum would likely RB BC yet again and kill Jordan leaving BC as a possible mislynch still but at that point we probably no lynch right back into them and force them cut down the WIFOM somewhere.

No Lynch -> Scum have to block or kill Jordan because if he gets another result and lives then DC and Gunslinger are lynched for sure. They probably go the simple route and kill Jordan and block BC again putting us in actual LYLO but we have some pretty broken open pools to work from.

Lynch is clearly the optimal strategy here, I would bet on Gunslinger being the roleblocker given the way he’s been willing to take shots at DC and not the other way around.

Scenario 2) Jordan is telling the truth but BC is lying. Setup is TTTTCCC which means there are two goons and a roleblocker. Scum team is Gunslinger, DC and BC.

Lynch DC or Gunslinger -> They have to kill Jordan because he can destroy the entire scum team we lynch the other of the two the next day and if we ever hit the roleblocker then BC is probably outed as the last scum when we don’t have two kills in one night. If BC is the roleblocker we’ll likely end up in something like a DDD/BC w. one of DV/Aegor/RC LYLO. Tricky but very winnable given a vig who never got a shot off.

No Lynch -> They kill RC and we shift into the above lynch plan or they block Jordan and start to kill in his confirmed innocents either way we get scum one day and probably the next and end up in roughly the same place I think.

Lynch is probably slightly optimal but it looks like it’d mostly be an issue of when we no lynch not if we do.

Scenario 3) Jordan is lying and BC is telling the truth. Setup is TTTTVVC which means there are two goons and a roleblocker. Scum team is Jordan and oh fuck who knows.

Lynch DC or Gunslinger -> Assuming Jordan doesn’t lead a lynch on his scum partner then they roleblock BC and kill to go to 3 scum vs. 3 town and win the game.

No Lynch -> Things get sticky here because almost all the scenarios that make sense for scum when Jordan is town is that they kill him ASAP so if say BC ends up dead instead then we’re in a mighty curious position and we have a chance to audible out of the scenario; the only problem is that’s an incentive for scum to make this slightly optimal move if they think the optimal move leaves them in a bad position and they think WIFOM is the better route.

No lynch is obviously better but in the end we have to make the decision to follow Jordan or not.

Scenario 3) Jordan and BC are lying. Setup is TTTTTTC which means they are the scums.

Lynch DC or Gunslinger -> Mislynch, go to six players and the game is basically over in favor of the town because the game isn’t already over and both the claimed power roles are still alive. This pretty much can’t be a realistic scenario in that case.

No Lynch -> Ends up in pretty much the same situation.

~~

Conclusion: There’s basically no way Jordan and BC are scum together because when we get to five/six players and we haven’t already lost it’s obvious they’re scum. That means the real decision point isn’t whether or not we no lynch but whether you believe Jordan is town or not, if we do then it’s probably slightly better to lynch today and if we think he’s scum then it’s vastly better to no lynch but that really only defers the decision a day with a bit more information.

You are all welcome.

[~Jordan`]

DDD you forgot to answer the key questions.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

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[~Jordan`]

Aegor was just so badgerable. >_<
Even now he's a walking waffle.

I think emphasizing a RB lynch isn't particularly good because BC shouldn't vig for the rest of the game, anyway.
Besides, its more important to focus on lynching accurately. We won't have to rely on PR results if we have a flipped scum to reason over,

[Aegor]

So...we have all of the claims. We are waiting for RC's input. It seems like the consensus is that if we believe Jordan's claim, we should lynch today. Is that correct?

[~Jordan`]

im so glad i used my real name as my user
every mention just feels that much more intimate

[beastcharizard]

I believe the claim and want to lynch.

@Jordan:

I would shoot Drake if I could shoot anyone. Aren't they basically confirmed scum?

[~Jordan`]

If we lynch someone else and they flip scum, then sure. But since we aren't and it's not clear who's scum between GS and DDD, it's a bad idea.

No one man should have that much power.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

If we lynch someone else and they flip scum, then sure. But since we aren't and it's not clear who's scum between GS and DDD, it's a bad idea.

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