Mini 1439 -- Game Over

[MrBump]

Because SK has no shot tonight if he survives as taking a shot is pretty much claiming SK.

I don't see how it's risky to lynch RC but not risky to lynch into five people hoping that we hit the scum.

[Ztife]

Because SK has no shot tonight if he survives as taking a shot is pretty much claiming SK.

I don't see how it's risky to lynch RC but not risky to lynch into five people hoping that we hit the scum.

Because to DJ, its possible to be a 3scum + sk WITH BP setup, possible to be a VIG setup, but not a 2-scum + 2-scum with possible town PR.
Because to DJ its impossible for town PR not to claim today, when I have repeatedly explain that town PR should not claim today.
Also because DJ thinks im 100% scum because im pushing the SK lynch (I can be scum for pushing a SK lynch but not townie.. this seems to be something which he is obviously not very cautious about saying)

If im the last scum, why would I push so hard for RC lynch today and not tomorrow?
If im scum and I know that SK has abilities left and I want him lynched, this means that town needs him lynched to win too or there will be 2NKs tonight. I have explained that why a crossfire is not happening because any chance of sk or scum or multi-ball winning involves getting to D5.

So if SK has abilities, he needs to be lynched today in both the interest of scum and town. If SK has no abilities, he doesn't need to be lynched today.. so why is "scum Ztife" pushing for an SK lynch today so hard again? Oh, because it COULD be 3scum + SK, therefore Ztife must be 100% scum.

Well, I supposed I could spare some time to make a case today.

[Ztife]

From start of D4 855 till now my theory has been consistant. SK needs to be lynched, and the only reason not to is because RC is VIG or its 3scum + SK, which I have repeatedly said how unlikely it is.

Back in D3, I already had my suspicions because RC's claim was stupid, and not believable at all. I asked him who he shot,733 and why he claimed TWICE (because he refuses to answer) 749, and why he shot Bacde, 790 but he kept replying that he has his reasons and refuse to cooperate. I wanted to question epm and ankamius more but yeah well.. D3 just ended with a scummy hammer. I never found his vig claim to be believable, and yet nobody else seems to question this.

Do you think you can get any answer out of RC? Or believe what he says? Stop the act, please 974. The reason he is not answering is simply because he has no consistant answer to give and no excuses to cover up his shit. RC is anti-town for sure, because if he flips town I swear I will make him a PL in every game I play. And this is why penguin, I know we have to lynch him today because im sure he's anti-town.

D2 was crucial when I tried to pressure vote the lurkers into posting too, which is pretty much the fucking key and the reason why town got this shitty mess in the first place. If you remember D2 I rejected Red Dragon's theory of feg being scum and that it was more important to get the replacements to post. Feg is a easy lynch for scum no matter how you look at it.

Vote Count 2.3

Fegelein (3) -- don_johnson, Red Dragon, Secret Agent Sloth

Notice how the wagon started vote wise.

or we could just get on with the business of lynching you?

vote: feg

step 1) lynch feg.

that is another good reason to simply lynch him.

Why was feg lynched again?

As for D1, discussion was mostly between townies (bacde vs feg) and the end voting was town and town. Scums have no reasons to choose either particular wagon, and most people were just replacing in. Mostly null/weak reads for me here.



Big question here is, why would DJ defend RC so hard? (if TL:DR, I'll summarise it below)
DJ and RC is scum buddies in a multi-ball. I have said repeatedly this is still a possibility and i'm not sure why we would want to ignore this.
RC is SK, and DJ is SAS partner/last scum. If a townie gets lynched today instead of RC, RC is likely not to aim DJ because RC does not know if DJ is scum, and keeping DJ around could keep RC alive for another day. If RC shoots DJ then its obvious RC is SK and he will be lynched tomorrow. There are multiple possibilities that could happen after that but this is a possbile scenario to gain 2 NKs tonight.

ztife: you are basically saying that our only hope is to lynch RC, pray that he is mafia and not sk or vig, then hope that scum

crosskill

. do i have that right? it seems like an awfully faith based shot in the dark type way to play this game.

I was quoting possibilities, but over here he seems to suggest that he is not willing to take the chance of crosskill.

this is incorrect. HUGELY incorrect. if we lynch scum, sk and final scum can

crosskill

, or one kill can fail(due to possible bp/doc protect) and town can still end up in a 3p or 4p lylo/mylo with chance to win. chances are waaayyyyy better for town in this instance if we lynch scum. game is fucking over if we lynch sk. this a main crux of my argument that you seem to continually gloss over.

Over here he suggests a crosskill can happen just to argue with me that we can win LEAVING THE SK ALIVE because there might be a cross-kill. Also, I've proven why there will not be a crosskill in this scenario.

So there, CLEARLY, we need the SK lynched today, and there is no real answer to whether scum wants SK lynched because we don't know if he has bullet-proof or multi-ball or how many scums in the game or whatsoever. Unless there is extreme setups, all reasoning points to lynching RC today. That's all.

(Unless you believe its 3scum + sk. Actually, it could be 4scum + vig too HOLY SHIT WHY DIDNT I THINK OF THAT lets be on the "err side of caution, don_johnson" and not lynch the frickin SK /sarcasm)

We have 5 days left btw, and RC is V/LA and even he's back he probably won't answer anything. And EPM is probably back to reading 5 sentences a day. So stop beating around the bush.

@penguin
What are you actually thinking or considering about? If you are attempting to scum hunt, ask questions. Ask me, ask DJ, ask bump whatsoever. You can ask RC and EPM, but I doubt you will get anything. And think what what I have asked you.

Also, please answer this penguin

. Do you think RC is SK and do you think he needs to be lynched today? Assuming you are 100% sure of who scum is, what makes the difference between lynching them today and tomorrow?

By lynching SK today you also eliminate the possibility of having 2 NKs tonight. Also, compare the possibility of how sure of you who the SK is and how sure of you who the scum is precisely why im telling you to lynch RC first, and you can go for me (or dj or whatever) tomorrow. Why is that hard to see? Do you also understand that to lynch RC we probably need your vote and we still have to convince EPM?

[MrBump]

Surely if it was 4 Scum, we'd be 3v3 here and instalose?

Yeah Ztife pretty much hit the nail right on the head.

VOTE: RadiantCowbells

Makes no difference whether we hit scum or not, I think. If Radiant is Town, we lose anyway because we'd be lynching SK tomorrow. I'm tired of this running in circles.

[RadiantCowbells]

What if you lynched me never because I'm town?

[RadiantCowbells]

I shot Bacde N1 and SAS N2.

I know Ztife is scum and I'm not sure who the other scum is yet.

[don_johnson]

Big question here is, why would DJ defend RC so hard? (if TL:DR, I'll summarise it below)
DJ and RC is scum buddies in a multi-ball. I have said repeatedly this is still a possibility and i'm not sure why we would want to ignore this.

because evidence suggests otherwise. 2/3 nights with only one kill and no claimed protective role.

So there, CLEARLY, we need the SK lynched today, and there is no real answer to whether scum wants SK lynched because we don't know if he has bullet-proof or multi-ball or how many scums in the game or whatsoever. Unless there is extreme setups, all reasoning points to lynching RC today. That's all.

nope. multi-ball is paranoia. evidence does not suggest it. its the

least

likely scenario given the evidence. but you keep pushing it as though it is the most likely.

We have 5 days left btw, and RC is V/LA and even he's back he probably won't answer anything. And EPM is probably back to reading 5 sentences a day. So stop beating around the bush.

so you are content to just ignore epm? you are tunneling me based on the least likely scenario(multi-ball), but are ignoring the chance that RC could actually be vig and that epm could be lurking to a win.

why exactly do you have a town read on epm?

Also, please answer this penguin

. Do you think RC is SK and do you think he needs to be lynched today? Assuming you are 100% sure of who scum is, what makes the difference between lynching them today and tomorrow?

^^ this is ztife trying to live to see another day.

By lynching SK today you also eliminate the possibility of having 2 NKs tonight.

nope. if there are two scum left thats game if we lynch sk. if only one scum, then lynching sk should only leave one nk.

Also, compare the possibility of how sure of you who the SK is and how sure of you who the scum is precisely why im telling you to lynch RC first, and you can go for me (or dj or whatever) tomorrow. Why is that hard to see? Do you also understand that to lynch RC we probably need your vote and we still have to convince EPM?

ok. heres my conclusion i was saving until RC spoke up. but in my estimation, mr. bump can only be scum with ztife. bump cannot be scum with dj, RC,epm, or penguin. its just not possible.

epm is likely town, because as scum he would have little motivation not to lynch RC, and no motivation to townread bump.

penguin, well, if he's scum, i will hand him the win. i just don't think he is.

so here are the possibilities i see:

ztife/SAS scum team against RCbpsk against all vanilla town.

or

ztife/bump/SAS scum team against town with RC limited vig.

so we lynch ztife first. sort out between bump and RC tomorrow.

i really don't see any other possibilities at this time. currently i think the 2pscum/sk thing is where we are at, but bump's infuriating denial of the most likely scenario at this time is just baffling.

most likely scenario based on the evidence at hand(taking into account claims, nk's and gameplay):

ztife/SAS vs RCbpsk vs vanilla town.

bump: why are you against the ztife lynch? in other words, who do you believe to be partnered with SAS?

[don_johnson]

RC:

you have done yourself no favors.

[don_johnson]

i also love how ztife keeps saying "we could have a doc" when its totally fucking obvious that noone here is a doctor. and yet, all of the scenarios that i have thrown out are "crazy". he is not acting like his own lynch would end in a town loss. he is just trying to argue to keep himself alive. my bet is he is SAS partner and is honestly unsure of whether or not we are in multi-ball which is why he is pushing the idea so forcefully. that and because if he can convince us of that then he gets to live another night.

if only bump wasn't buddying ztife so hard here i would be 100% sure....

[penguin_alien]

Things I agree with: we have an all-vanilla town and RC is an SK, likely BP to some degree. If this were multiball, RC shouldn't be BP and so would have no reason to gambit like he did, as the other scum team should have killed him. If RC is a vig, he hasn't...argh, trying not to be gratuitously insulting here...played in a pro-town fashion? I'll leave it at that and reserve the right to rant in post-game if he's a vig.

Not sure about 3 vs. 2 man scum team. Thinking of other 12-13 player game set-ups. Near-Vanilla is three goons balanced by a doc and JK. Fire and Ice has two 2-man goon teams balanced by nullified overlap-kills and a doc. While the BP SK weakens the Mafia, it doesn't really help the town and possibly requires us to lynch four anti-town players.

Looking at this again. If we are against a three-man scum team, even lynching the correct scum sends us into night 3-1-1, with the possibility of it being 1-1-1 come morning, which if RC is BP, leaves town screwed. Actually, there Mafia has to hope RC's BPness has run out and shoot him at the 3-1-1 night, leaving it at 2-1-0, 3-0-0, 2-1-1, or 3-0-1.

Since I don't think evilpacman18 or MrBump is scum, the only possibility to me is a don_johnson-Ztife-SAS scum team. In which case the survivors are bussing like crazy.

@penguin
What do you think are the possibilities of town winning if we hit scum and town losing if we hit town?

@penguin
What are you actually thinking or considering about? If you are attempting to scum hunt, ask questions. Ask me, ask DJ, ask bump whatsoever. You can ask RC and EPM, but I doubt you will get anything. And think what what I have asked you.

Also, please answer this penguin. Do you think RC is SK and do you think he needs to be lynched today? Assuming you are 100% sure of who scum is, what makes the difference between lynching them today and tomorrow?

By lynching SK today you also eliminate the possibility of having 2 NKs tonight. Also, compare the possibility of how sure of you who the SK is and how sure of you who the scum is precisely why im telling you to lynch RC first, and you can go for me (or dj or whatever) tomorrow. Why is that hard to see? Do you also understand that to lynch RC we probably need your vote and we still have to convince EPM?

If we hit Mafia and it's a three-man scum team, i.e. 3-1-1 going into night, it's a crapshoot depending on night kills and a possible kingmaker scenario for town if RC is full BP. Which Mafia would almost certainly claim is the case. Hitting town with a two-man team is the same scenario, except if RC kills Mafia we don't know for sure that all Mafia is dead.

At this point, I'm assuming one of you (Ztife) and DJ is scum. I find it less odd that DJ didn't mention SAS than that SAS didn't mention you, given the way some of the early days went. As far as scum hunting goes, you've both made your stances quite clear, and the longer things go on, the less I think I want to lynch either of you today. If I'm around tomorrow and we're trying to find scum, there will be plenty of time to investigate then. Or more likely at 3-1, move to no-lynch and hope the choice gets dumped on some other townie's shoulders.

DJ, if RC is a 2-shot vig, we're screwed any way we go, since we're lynching him today or tomorrow. A three-man scum team with a correct scum lynch today with RC as a vig out of shots has one scum left and one NK, but let's face it, we're all betting on RC being an SK and would lynch him as responsible for the single kill in that case. I don't see the mod having an X-shot vig where X = # of Mafia when a near-vanilla town is presumably in place to make us rely on the day phases for victory. A 2-man scum team forces the survivor to narrow the pool via NKs if we no-lynch at MyLo.

ztife/bump/SAS scum team against town with RC limited vig.

so we lynch ztife first. sort out between bump and RC tomorrow.

So it's 3-1-1. Two NKs, likely on town, leaves town as kingmaker. Even 2-1-1 leaves town screwed. And like I said, sorting out between MrBump and RC is almost certainly going to result in lynching RC. I'll tell you right now that that would be my choice. If we're going to lose because we're up against a three-man scum team, I'd rather do it now.

[Ztife]

i also love how ztife keeps saying "we could have a doc" when its totally fucking obvious that noone here is a doctor. and yet, all of the scenarios that i have thrown out are "crazy". he is not acting like his own lynch would end in a town loss. he is just trying to argue to keep himself alive. my bet is he is SAS partner and is honestly unsure of whether or not we are in multi-ball which is why he is pushing the idea so forcefully. that and because if he can convince us of that then he gets to live another night.

if only bump wasn't buddying ztife so hard here i would be 100% sure....

How is it "fucking obvious" again there is no doc again? What advantage would it have for town for a doc to claim now? Please enlighten me.

Keep going in circles to keep your "arguements" alive dj, its pathetic.

[Ztife]

@DJ
Keep going in circles, saying that multi-ball is unlikely but still harping on the possibility of 3scum + SK when I have shown in the likely scenarios it will be beneficial for town to lynch SK today to win. Who's tunneling?

Things I agree with: we have an all-vanilla town and RC is an SK, likely BP to some degree. If this were multiball, RC shouldn't be BP and so would have no reason to gambit like he did, as the other scum team should have killed him. If RC is a vig, he hasn't...argh, trying not to be gratuitously insulting here...played in a pro-town fashion? I'll leave it at that and reserve the right to rant in post-game if he's a vig.

Not sure about 3 vs. 2 man scum team. Thinking of other 12-13 player game set-ups. Near-Vanilla is three goons balanced by a doc and JK. Fire and Ice has two 2-man goon teams balanced by nullified overlap-kills and a doc. While the BP SK weakens the Mafia, it doesn't really help the town and possibly requires us to lynch four anti-town players.

Looking at this again. If we are against a three-man scum team, even lynching the correct scum sends us into night 3-1-1, with the possibility of it being 1-1-1 come morning, which if RC is BP, leaves town screwed. Actually, there Mafia has to hope RC's BPness has run out and shoot him at the 3-1-1 night, leaving it at 2-1-0, 3-0-0, 2-1-1, or 3-0-1.

Since I don't think evilpacman18 or MrBump is scum, the only possibility to me is a don_johnson-Ztife-SAS scum team. In which case the survivors are bussing like crazy.

@penguin
What do you think are the possibilities of town winning if we hit scum and town losing if we hit town?

@penguin
What are you actually thinking or considering about? If you are attempting to scum hunt, ask questions. Ask me, ask DJ, ask bump whatsoever. You can ask RC and EPM, but I doubt you will get anything. And think what what I have asked you.

Also, please answer this penguin. Do you think RC is SK and do you think he needs to be lynched today? Assuming you are 100% sure of who scum is, what makes the difference between lynching them today and tomorrow?

By lynching SK today you also eliminate the possibility of having 2 NKs tonight. Also, compare the possibility of how sure of you who the SK is and how sure of you who the scum is precisely why im telling you to lynch RC first, and you can go for me (or dj or whatever) tomorrow. Why is that hard to see? Do you also understand that to lynch RC we probably need your vote and we still have to convince EPM?

If we hit Mafia and it's a three-man scum team, i.e. 3-1-1 going into night, it's a crapshoot depending on night kills and a possible kingmaker scenario for town if RC is full BP. Which Mafia would almost certainly claim is the case. Hitting town with a two-man team is the same scenario, except if RC kills Mafia we don't know for sure that all Mafia is dead.

At this point, I'm assuming one of you (Ztife) and DJ is scum. I find it less odd that DJ didn't mention SAS than that SAS didn't mention you, given the way some of the early days went. As far as scum hunting goes, you've both made your stances quite clear, and the longer things go on, the less I think I want to lynch either of you today. If I'm around tomorrow and we're trying to find scum, there will be plenty of time to investigate then. Or more likely at 3-1, move to no-lynch and hope the choice gets dumped on some other townie's shoulders.

DJ, if RC is a 2-shot vig, we're screwed any way we go, since we're lynching him today or tomorrow. A three-man scum team with a correct scum lynch today with RC as a vig out of shots has one scum left and one NK, but let's face it, we're all betting on RC being an SK and would lynch him as responsible for the single kill in that case. I don't see the mod having an X-shot vig where X = # of Mafia when a near-vanilla town is presumably in place to make us rely on the day phases for victory. A 2-man scum team forces the survivor to narrow the pool via NKs if we no-lynch at MyLo.

ztife/bump/SAS scum team against town with RC limited vig.

so we lynch ztife first. sort out between bump and RC tomorrow.

So it's 3-1-1. Two NKs, likely on town, leaves town as kingmaker. Even 2-1-1 leaves town screwed. And like I said, sorting out between MrBump and RC is almost certainly going to result in lynching RC. I'll tell you right now that that would be my choice. If we're going to lose because we're up against a three-man scum team, I'd rather do it now.

Precisely, multi-ball with a doc(fire and ice setup) and sk + 2 scum + 10 VTs are more possible setups since they are balanced, and in these cases lynching RC is priority to winning. If its multi-ball and we lynch SAS's partner it means town loss. In the other scenario if we mislynch town instead of scum it would end up in the 1-1-1 D5.

In my other game with 3 scum + SK we had tracker and doc and neighbors.

Even though we lynched 3 scums in 4 days town

still loss

. If there's no town PR, dj claims that multi-ball is unlikely but 3scums + SK is possible. If only you would even see how paradoxical this statement is. I agree that in this setup we lose if we lynch SK, but fact is town loses

anyway

. In a tight situation like now where we cannot afford to mislynch we have to have the SK lynch, especially when we are so sure of it. If it was mult-ball even if we hit SAS's partner we would lose instantly. SK is third party, if SK is functional and scum wants SK dead then its the best interest for town to want SK dead as well. If scum wants SK alive then all the more town would need SK lynched because scum would only keep SK alive for anti-town purposes. So even if you think that me and dj are probably scum, think about why we have to lynch the SK today.

[Ztife]

Mod can you remove the double post? Thanks

[MrBump]

I went from ProbTown to ProbScum with Ztife, who I'm buddying by saying he's probably scum, and, in response to your question, I've said multiple times I think you're the last scum. It's worth noting that the question is "Who do you believe is partnered with SAS?" as if he

knows

that there is only one scum left, but it's possible you were just asking it to be from my perspective. You've buddied RC most of the day and now turn on him and somehow that makes your actions disappear?

I have said my stance time and time again that if we lynch RC today, we go into tomorrow 4P MyLo (I only really accept 2 Scum + 1 SK as the scenario tbh). RC's flip gives us a lot of information and then we can just find the scum tomorrow or NL into 3P LyLo. I think our odds and chances are far better to do that than to lynch into five people hoping we hit scum when we have guaranteed importance somewhere else.

[2birds1stone]

Vote Count 4.7

penguin_alien (0)
RadiantCowbells (2) -- Ztife, MrBump
MrBump (0)
don_johnson (0)
Ztife (1) -- evilpacman18
evilpacman18 (0)

Not voting -- penguin_alien, RadiantCowbells, don_johnson,

With six alive, it takes four to lynch

Day Four ends in (expired on 2013-06-08 22:51:00)

[RadiantCowbells]

VOTE: RadiantCowbells

I've just about had it with all the trash talk.

Just end this.

[RadiantCowbells]

If RC is a vig, he hasn't...argh, trying not to be gratuitously insulting here...played in a pro-town fashion? I'll leave it at that and reserve the right to rant in post-game if he's a vig.

Get the fuck over it you crybaby.

[MrBump]

Well, you're a PL for future now, at least.

[don_johnson]

ok. that selfie looks like a last ditch effort by a desperate sk. i'll bite on the 2p scum vs sk vs all vanilla town.

bump: you need to let go of your anger.

vote: radiant cowbells

let's see what happens..

if its an sk flip and the game continues, last scum is either ztife or epm imo. most likely ztife. bump and penguin should be clear.

[don_johnson]

I think our odds and chances are far better to do that than to lynch into five people hoping we hit scum when we have guaranteed importance somewhere else.

this is such a misrep. i really feel we just lost the game here to ztife/bump/SAS. its like you are ignoring the fact that we aren't just "hoping we hit scum". we are scumhunting. but whatevz. its done. are you scum?

[penguin_alien]

If RC is a vig, he hasn't...argh, trying not to be gratuitously insulting here...played in a pro-town fashion? I'll leave it at that and reserve the right to rant in post-game if he's a vig.

Get the fuck over it you crybaby.

Seeing as you apparently have no such qualms, I'll be quite leery of playing in any future games with you, regardless of your flip.

[don_johnson]

yo P: do you agree that an sk flip clears bump? i think ztife is most likely scum if game continues, but we need to take a look at epm as well.

[RadiantCowbells]

Assuming I'm right about two scum left, that's game.

No, I'm a vig. And please penguin, don't play with me again.

This game has been so unpleasant with the attitude from everyone; not people thinking I'm scummy which is fine, just all the constant insinuations that I suck, am a shitty pr, not pro-town, etc.

I am very happy to have it over, and hopefully any of the town that are in the group that I'm referring to will learn to relate differently.

In closing, yeah I was feeling pretty anti-town most of the game. You should take some time to reflect among yourselves why I felt that way.

If the game's not over, lynch Ztife tomorrow.

[don_johnson]

RC: get over yourself. you should have worked harder. seriously. its not that you suck, but there were a couple things you should NOT have done. onnce you claimed, you should have become the most protown player in the world. that scummy hammer really ruined it for you. but oh well. oh and you should have explained your kills better, especially when i spent all day defending you and then you just seemed to dodge my questions.

if its bump/ztife i just want to say "i told you so."

bump, if you are town, you need to learn to listen. lynching sk/vig in this scenario is NEVER EVER EVER the right move. but whatevz. its been fun, even with the ridiculous amounts of ad hom.

[evilpacman18]

Eh I don't feel good about this