Questions
1. What is the Town EV (probability of the Town winning) for each setup?
a. 1:11 Vanilla -
b. 2:10 Nightless - Assuming 1 scum dies before it gets to 5-player lylo, I'd say 85% town,because 83% of the players are town to start with. To get to 5-player lylo, 5 townies in a row need to die, which is about 25% chance, and scum has a very good shot to win at that point, so I'll take 20% away from the 85% to reach
c. 3:9 Double Day.
d. 4:8 PairedLovers.
2. In each setup, what does X need to be in order for a 10:X setup to be as close to a 50-50 balance (each side has a 50% chance of winning) as possible?
a. Vanilla - 300 (practically much less, as buddies will be found)
b. Nightless - 50 (practically much less, as buddies will be found)
c. PairedLovers - 100
d. PairedLovers Nightless - 25
e. PolyLovers - 11, technically, but it would play differently. Probably 13 with practical considerations (i.e. it is less likely than 10/21 that a scum will be lynched even if there are 10 scum out ouf 21 players, because scum-lynch = scum-loss)
f. Treestump - 55 (based on nightless guess of 50). If town wins, there will be 9 more dead townies than in nightless(9 more night phases)
g. White Flag - 250. No idea. I'm assuming that town needing to lynch one fewer scum more than offsets the ~5 fewer townies the scum need to get rid of to win.
h. Double Day - 150. Probably halfway between Vanilla and Nightless.
3. Put the following setups in order from lowest Town EV to greatest Town EV (least likely for the Town to win to most likely):
g
h
f
c
a
b
d
e
1. What is the Town EV (probability of the Town winning) for each setup?
a. 1:11 Vanilla -
60%.
b. 2:10 Nightless - Assuming 1 scum dies before it gets to 5-player lylo, I'd say 85% town,because 83% of the players are town to start with. To get to 5-player lylo, 5 townies in a row need to die, which is about 25% chance, and scum has a very good shot to win at that point, so I'll take 20% away from the 85% to reach
65%
.c. 3:9 Double Day.
40%
. No idea.d. 4:8 PairedLovers.
60%
. No idea.2. In each setup, what does X need to be in order for a 10:X setup to be as close to a 50-50 balance (each side has a 50% chance of winning) as possible?
a. Vanilla - 300 (practically much less, as buddies will be found)
b. Nightless - 50 (practically much less, as buddies will be found)
c. PairedLovers - 100
d. PairedLovers Nightless - 25
e. PolyLovers - 11, technically, but it would play differently. Probably 13 with practical considerations (i.e. it is less likely than 10/21 that a scum will be lynched even if there are 10 scum out ouf 21 players, because scum-lynch = scum-loss)
f. Treestump - 55 (based on nightless guess of 50). If town wins, there will be 9 more dead townies than in nightless(9 more night phases)
g. White Flag - 250. No idea. I'm assuming that town needing to lynch one fewer scum more than offsets the ~5 fewer townies the scum need to get rid of to win.
h. Double Day - 150. Probably halfway between Vanilla and Nightless.
3. Put the following setups in order from lowest Town EV to greatest Town EV (least likely for the Town to win to most likely):
g
h
f
c
a
b
d
e