Newbie 783 - Mongol Mafia - Game Over

[ekiM]

Hi, ivan.

No lynch is no good; it cedes control of the game to the scum and pins our hopes on power roles we may not even have.

Vote: Jarmo

. Lurker scum.

[ivanavich]

I agree. In my 1st game I had the nolynch mentality till I realized the vote is just to get the game moving. Mathematically speaking it would hurt the town if there was a no lynch also.

[Jarmo]

Btw, the vote for a no-lynch is sorta silly since we only have a 50-50 chance of getting a cop for investigative results. Otherwise we're just giving the mafia a free kill and putting the town at even numbers (which is bad, due to endgame situations, see the following...)

Lynch today:

9 lynch to 8
8 NK to 7
7 lynch to 6
6 NK to 5
5 lynch to 4
4 NK to 3 - Mafia win

- Town gets 3 lynches

OR

No Lynch today:

No Lynch
9 NK to 8
8 lynch to 7
7 NK to 6
6 lynch to 5
5 NK to 4 - Mafia win

- Town gets 2 lynches.

The lynch is the only way for the town to kill mafia. Even if we're taking a random shot, it's better than no shot at all. Any naysayers?

I completely agree. A no lynch on the first day, while, yes, chances are greater of hitting an innocent, still has odds of hitting a mafia, while night lynches (for the first few nights at least) are typically 100% innocent killings.

Not to mention all the valuable information garnered from the discussion of choosing a player to lynch. You can tell a lot about a person by what they say and how they vote.

Along the same thought process, the person that stands out to me from current voting is Blyndsikick. A no lynch favors the mafia. It gives them a free day.

Vote: Blyndsikick

No lynch is no good; it cedes control of the game to the scum and pins our hopes on power roles we may not even have.

Vote: Jarmo. Lurker scum.

Hopefully, my name starts to be cleared of the lurker scum label. I didn't think I would be associated so quickly with such a title! Shame on me.

[Pablo Molinero]

unvote, vote: Blyndsikick

Blyndsikick, what is your exposure to mafia? Have you played before (here or elsewhere)? Actually anyone that wants to answer that question, that would be grand.

[ekiM]

I've played a couple of games on another forum, and have a couple of finished games here. I'm a newbie, but I'd like to think I'm picking things up fairly quickly.

Jarmo, Pablo Molinero: Do you think it's productive to vote for people for not knowing basic theory? Is there any possibility that Blyndsikick is wily scum who knows that NL is bad and is aiming to somehow trick us into doing it anyway?

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

it'd be my first game on this site, 3rd game overall (if that matters...)

^From the Newbie Queue.

Probably doesn't have much experience with game theory and voting for him without him giving a response to Pablo's posting of the math behind no lynch being a bad idea seems premature.

[Jarmo]

it'd be my first game on this site, 3rd game overall (if that matters...)

^From the Newbie Queue.

Probably doesn't have much experience with game theory and voting for him without him giving a response to Pablo's posting of the math behind no lynch being a bad idea seems premature.

At this point in the discussion, I have to go off what is out there. For the moment, he seems the best vote to me. It may change, at which point, my vote will change.

We;re all kind of going blindly in the dark together. We go off what we have.

I've got experience playing this game on other sites and through live games. I'm currently hosting my own Mafia game through in-game forums at Kingdom of Loathing.

[ivanavich]

I agree DDD. I can relate as I was just in his shoes last game.
While it isn't a good reason to lynch (unless he doesn't see the light) it is a reason at least to make a vote. How many of the votes cast are based on any relavent evidence at this point?

This is my second online game. Played plenty in person though.

[Shadeaux]

Too true, no-lynch is detrimental to townies, *especially* a quick one D1. Maybe Blynd realized this and is trying to sucker newbies.

But honestly though? I think he's just mistaken (this *is* a newbie game after all), but better not to take the chance.

I would wait to hear his reply though, before jumping into voting.

[purple princess]

This is my first game ever! I thought I would just make a random vote just to add to the disscusion.
Sorry penguana your name just stood out, I'm sure I'll change my my mind before the end of the day.

[Pablo Molinero]

Jarmo, Pablo Molinero: Do you think it's productive to vote for people for not knowing basic theory? Is there any possibility that Blyndsikick is wily scum who knows that NL is bad and is aiming to somehow trick us into doing it anyway?

To the second part: possibly, but I sorta shot that idea to hell (for good reason) and the whole town is against it, so the point is moot now.

To the first: voting early is a great tool to gauge people's reactions (the person you're voting and the surrounding town). Quicklynches happen every once and a while, but it looks like no one is in terrible danger in this game.

[BlyndSikick]

If we lynch a townie today, then tomorrow the townie:mafia stands 5:2 lynch another townie and it's 3:2 in a lylo situation... (43% chance of happening)

If we lynch a townie today, and no lynch tomorrow it's 4:2 (un-calculable)

If we lynch a townie today, and mafia tomorrow, it's 4:1 (19% chance of happening)

If we lynch a mafia today, 6:1 and mafia tomorrow, game over (3% chance of happening)

Do what you will with these stats

[BlyndSikick]

I play on debate.org, however games regularly consist of 25-ish people... we get all sorts of roles, roles that might be truly detrimental if lynched and usually enough information is gained on night phase 1 to help the town come day phase 2... It kinda never occurred to me that with this few people, and such a limited amount of resources as far as night actions go that we might not get info come tomorrow, hence my no-lynch vote...

With all the strategy brought to light, I see error in my thinking and

UNVOTE

[Kublai Khan]

End of Day Monday May 4th 2009 Votecount

Jarmo - 2 - penguana, ekiM

BlyndSikick - 2 - Jarmo, Pablo Molinero
penguana - 1 - purple princess
Pablo Molinero - 1 - Debonair Danny DiPietro
ekiM - 1 - ivanavich

Debonair Danny DiPietro
ivanavich
purple princess
Shadeaux

Not Voting: Shadeaux, Blyndsikick

With 9 players, it takes 5 to Lynch.

[Pablo Molinero]

If we lynch a townie today, then tomorrow the townie:mafia stands 5:2 lynch another townie and it's 3:2 in a lylo situation... (43% chance of happening)

If we lynch a townie today, and no lynch tomorrow it's 4:2 (un-calculable)

If we lynch a townie today, and mafia tomorrow, it's 4:1 (19% chance of happening)

If we lynch a mafia today, 6:1 and mafia tomorrow, game over (3% chance of happening)

Do what you will with these stats

Well that is, of course, on the truly random-voting plane. Hopefully the town's intuition will boost those numbers a bit.

Also,

unvote

seeing as you have not played with this setup before.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

What an unexpected result.

[Pablo Molinero]

Quiet you.

What is everyone's favorite role (or what you most want to play as if you've never played before)? I find the deduction of being plain-ol' vanilla town is the most fun and that I still have no damned idea how to play as a good mafia member.

And

Vote: ekiM

for questioning my brilliance in his last post.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

What is everyone's favorite role (or what you most want to play as if you've never played before)?

Replacement coming in after this humdrum phase of the game.

Unvote

Vote: Jarmo

Bandwagon-a-go-go.

[penguana]

@Pablo Molinero
I have never played mafia before so i cant say.


@purple princess
Don't worry about it. I am used to those reactions about my nickname.

[penguana]

Also

I have an avatar now

[Kublai Khan]

End of Day Tuesday May 5th 2009 Votecount

Jarmo - 3 - penguana, ekiM, Debonair Danny DiPietro

ekiM - 2 - ivanavich, Pablo Molinero
BlyndSikick - 1 - Jarmo
penguana - 1 - purple princess

Pablo Molinero
Debonair Danny DiPietro
ivanavich
purple princess
Shadeaux

Not Voting: Shadeaux, Blyndsikick

With 9 players, it takes 5 to Lynch.

[ivanavich]

Non-voters care to coment?

[ekiM]

At this point in the discussion, I have to go off what is out there. For the moment, he seems the best vote to me. It may change, at which point, my vote will change.

We;re all kind of going blindly in the dark together. We go off what we have.

Purely out of interest, did you actually find his move scummy or was it one of those reflexive vote-for-the-anti-town-newbie moves?

I play on debate.org, however games regularly consist of 25-ish people... we get all sorts of roles, roles that might be truly detrimental if lynched and usually enough information is gained on night phase 1 to help the town come day phase 2... It kinda never occurred to me that with this few people, and such a limited amount of resources as far as night actions go that we might not get info come tomorrow, hence my no-lynch vote...

Anyone else fine it vaguely amusing that debate.org Mafia games are more about power roles than, well, debate?

What is everyone's favorite role (or what you most want to play as if you've never played before)? I find the deduction of being plain-ol' vanilla town is the most fun and that I still have no damned idea how to play as a good mafia member.

Vanilla townie. It's more fun to be figuring things out than to pretend to be.

And

Vote: ekiM

for questioning my brilliance in his last post.

Pff. Voting for the newbie who suggests no lynch isn't especially brilliant!

Unvote

Vote: Jarmo

Bandwagon-a-go-go.

I heartily endorse this.

[Jarmo]

At this point in the discussion, I have to go off what is out there. For the moment, he seems the best vote to me. It may change, at which point, my vote will change.

We;re all kind of going blindly in the dark together. We go off what we have.

Purely out of interest, did you actually find his move scummy or was it one of those reflexive vote-for-the-anti-town-newbie moves?

It was a vote for the anti-townie move. This, remember, was prior to knowing he was such a newbie (granted the thread kind more or less gives the odds of him being a newbie). I've found those voting for no lynch the first day right off the bat tend to be either mafia or those that aren't quite sure how to play through a game. Both ways, in my opinion, can hurt the townie chances of winning.

However, he has since shown an interest in crunching a few numbers and looking into more debate and has taken his vote back. In which case, so will I.

Vote: Unvote

.

Unvote

Vote: Jarmo

Bandwagon-a-go-go.

I heartily endorse this.

That's just disheartening.

[ekiM]

At this point in the discussion, I have to go off what is out there. For the moment, he seems the best vote to me. It may change, at which point, my vote will change.

We;re all kind of going blindly in the dark together. We go off what we have.

Purely out of interest, did you actually find his move scummy or was it one of those reflexive vote-for-the-anti-town-newbie moves?

It was a vote for the anti-townie move. This, remember, was prior to knowing he was such a newbie (granted the thread kind more or less gives the odds of him being a newbie). I've found those voting for no lynch the first day right off the bat tend to be either mafia or those that aren't quite sure how to play through a game. Both ways, in my opinion, can hurt the townie chances of winning.

Interesting. Can you link to any games where mafia have seriously pushed for a no lynch on day one (and it would advantage them if it went through)?