/in-Vitational Game 4 (Game Over!)

[charter]

Well that is ridiculous.

Also, when are you going to stump?

When I am ready.

I'm going to see if I can make up a nice case on Balter, Pooky already did, I'll just try and capitalize and use full words and whatnot.

[mith]

Vote Count:

3 to lynch.

PookyTheMagicalBear: 1 (VP Baltar)

Not Voting: 3 (charter, elvis_knits, PookyTheMagicalBear)

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

o wow

u saying i aint using full words and capitalizing?

dem be fighting words.

[charter]

POOKY, WHY DID YOU WANT TO LYNCH ME DAY TWO?

This is an important question, Pooky.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

lol

well it was a joke

lol

i didn't actually want to lynch you without telling you why.

but it would've been hilarious if it happened.

[charter]

This is just starting from page 27, I don't think there is really anything before page 27.

ekim is creating a whole lot of noise, but i'm unclear on what any of it has actually accomplished aside from detracting from the attention clergyman should be getting.

more serialclergyman votes please. vp baltar should come back to the wagon. yos2 should join us as well. and all you nonvoters need to get off your butts and do something.

serialclergyman has the official roflcopter "this is a solid wagon" seal of approval

This is right after ekim and Balter are going back and forth.

Yos, this is the second time you're on, why are you failing to comment on the pretty dramatic turn of VP related matters? Seems that you're just picking any negative comment against you from the thread and retorting to those.

This is true, happens after the Balter-1 page.

VP Baltar's wagon grew way too fast to not suspect some baleful influence (well, this is somewhat regardless of his alignment - scum would want to be on that wagon either way). The way he attacks ekiM somewhat clears VP for me (a bit like with serialclergyman). His somewhat random attacks on me don't look too much like scum either.

This is pretty solid against Balter. If Balter was town, zu faul would just say, 'oh, Balter is obviously town, scum are on his wagon' kind of like what I said. Instead, he throws in the qualifier that scum are on Balter's wagon, independent of Balter's alignment. This allows him to accuse others of bussing when Balter flips scum. If Balter was town, he wouldn't need this qualifier. I don't think Zu faul put it in to trick us or play mind games either, I haven't seen anything in his play to suggest that, while there is quite a bit to suggest that it is a slip, such as Thesp is a good citizen and whatnot.

Anyway, doing a re-read of VP baller's posts now...I'm not really impressed by his scumhunting in general. I don't really get his attack on Iamusername at all, his vote for B&B was understandable but not based on much. His case on ekiM is more reasonable, but I kind of have a gut feeling at the moment that eikM might be town.

All in all, I could see lynching VP today. He wouldn't be my first choice, or my second, but his play in general looks pretty weak to me.

For the record, his first two choices are Serial and Kmd. Note that Xyl is currently hovering at 5-9th most suspicious (which can be seen in post 836).

i really don't like the baltar wagon. serialclergyman had a serious case of having his cake and eating it too in posts 772-773. joining the baltar wagon, and the turning around and slinging mud at ekim for joining the baltar wagon? i don't think there's a more obvious way to admit that you know the wagon you're on is bullshit.

Chainsaws Balter pretty hard.

Post 880, Yos joins the Xyl wagon right after rofl. All his suspicions above Xyl have magically disappeared, including Balter.

As for the VP claim debate, no vanilla town should ever claim vanilla town, except possibly in a mass-claim; claiming vanilla town in response to pressure is just an anti-town thing to do. It's not a very reliable scumtell, because it is a mistake pro-town people do make fairly often (B&B did it in this very game), but it certainly is another point against VP.

This is what Yos says about VP claiming vanilla, about eight pages after it happened. Pretty sure he normally lynches claimed vanillas, but don't make me go find evidence for that.

Ugh, rest of the case is my post 2113, 2118, 2119. Should be pretty self explanatory.

[VP Baltar]

As I stated about twenty times, I think rofl and yos were using me to boost their claims if necessary. Their buddying wasn't really reciprocated by me. I felt rofl was town early, but even that faded after he had claimed vanilla cop because it seemed too convenient to me and was suspicious for how hard he was working it. My guess is that they devised their vanilla cop claim after night 1 and I just happened to be the first vanilla who had to claim after that.

I'm also happy to see that pooky has switched back to his "lol, don't lynch me, tee hee" routine now that the pressure is off.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

lol

this is the equivalent of the mafia don carrying the bloody knife sitting in the courtroom with his giant cigar, his entire crime family turned state's witness, a mountain of evidence against him charging him with racketeering, murder, extortion... and he points his finger at the teddy bear in the corner and says....

"LOOK! THE TEDDY BEAR IS LAUGHING!!!!!!!!!!!"

[charter]

Balter, your play is not really the reason I am suspicious of you. It is that ALL FOUR of the other scumbags acted like you were their buddy.

The play of yours I find questionable is how you tried to pull a no lynch over a tajo lynch. No lynch would have been, unquestionably, the worst play of that day. You did try really hard to not lynch tajo. Then you try saying they both could be scum. Of course, for you to try and pull this off, you have to lynch tajo first, which you finally went with. But even then, you still say you'll jump over to Pooky first chance you get.
There's other stuff of yours I find scummy, but I'm pretty sure Elvis won't see it the way I do, so no sense in explaining it and weakening the already air tight case against you.

Plus, I highly doubt Pooky is scum. All of the scum tried lynching him, but none of them had good reasons. If Pooky was scum, and we lynched him over tajo, WE'D JUST LYNCH TAJO THE NEXT DAY! There was literally no way they could keep their fakeclaims going if we lynched Pooky and he was scum.

[elvis_knits]

I got poked.

I will read what I intended to read today. Then I will give my thoughts.

[VP Baltar]

I need to post here today. Sorry for the inactivity.

[charter]

Ok, this was the votecount 11 hours before deadline

PookyTheMagicalBear: 6 (iamausername, populartajo, roflcopter, Thesp, Yosarian2, zu_Faul)
populartajo: 6 (charter, ekiM, elvis_knits, Kmd4390, SerialClergyman, VP Baltar)
iamausername: 1 (PookyTheMagicalBear)

Now, I'm going to see if it is at all possible for the scum to have faked their claims another day if Pooky is scum. I doubt I'm going to get this right the first time, so please point out errors/faulty assumptions.

So, if Pooky was scum, this is what I see happening.
Serial gets NK'ed night three, most likely protecting Kmd. I don't think username would be killed, since that would be a HUGE blow against rofl being town.
tajo would have to hide again, say he hid behind zu faul.
Rofl would have to investigate again, investigate Thesp.
Then, there would be the following people cleared: tajo, charter, rofl, yos, balter, zu faul, thesp, kmd.

The people still living would be: user, ekim, elvis
Frankly, this is a complete and total unwinnable situation for them. It wouldn't be LYLO, so we could lynch ekim, then when he flips town, have him venge kill tajo, and that would be game over.

Even if I'm more constraining with the theoretical night actions, I still don't think it leaves any way for them to win.
Serial still gets NK'ed. Really no other choice. Killing anyone but him or ekim would raise huge question marks. Don't think it really matters which one.
tajo could hide behind rofl again.
rofl would still investigate, say thesp.
These people are cleared: tajo, charter, rofl, yos, balter, thesp, kmd
Leaving: user, ekim, elvis, zu faul

Once again, as soon as ekim gets lynched, it becomes obvious tajo is lying he gets venge killed.

The only thing I can see is if they try this.
Serial nightkilled.
tajo hides behind rofl.
rofl investigates elvis, says she isn't vanilla.
We lynch ekim, try and make him venge kill elvis, but not going to work, since there would be too many confirmeds to make up a scumteam. We'd still figure out that tajo has to be lying, venge kill him, and then steamroll the other scum.

Even in all my Pookyscum theories, if Serial isn't killed and ekim is (since I guess ekim is better in these situations), we can still lynch one of the unconfirmeds, but they're going to flip town and the jig will be up.

Possibly, this could happen.
ekim nightkilled
tajo hides behind rofl
rofl investigates zu faul, says he isn't a vanilla.
This would give us these people confirmed: tajo, charter, rofl, yos, balter, kmd
Leaving: elvis, serial, user, thesp
And supposed scum with zu faul.
We would probably lynch zu faul in this scenario.
Zu faul flips scum. Go to night four.
I am thinking the only way of doing this is if scum kill me.
These people would be confirmed: tajo, rofl, yos, balter, kmd
Leaving elvis, serial, user, thesp
Rofl would have say that elvis or thesp was scum, saying they are town won't leave enough people alive for the claims to check out.
Tajo could say he didn't hide.
Say we lynch elvis, flips town.
Leaves these people alive going in to the night. tajo, rofl, yos, balter, kmd, serial, user, thesp. This would mean they kill off serial here.
Day five would leave these people alive: tajo, rofl, yos, balter, kmd, user, thesp.
Rofl would be confirmed scum in day five, after elvis flips vanilla. By extension, tajo would, and Yos would die, game over, town wins.
There isn't a possible way for them to come out of this with a win.
The only thing I can think of, is if you take this same scenario, rofl says that thesp is town. We lynch elvis day four.
Leaves these people alive: tajo, rofl, yos, balter, kmd, serial, user, thesp
This would, I believe, be the absolute best possible scenario for scum to enter night four in. None of the claims have been false yet, and this would still leave a four person scum team.
Day five breaks, serial is dead.
tajo, rofl, yos, balter, kmd, user, thesp are alive, three scum alive.
They have to convince everyone that user and thesp are scumbuddies, and there is a roleblocker.

I can't see another scenario that would lead to them winning the game, other than this one right here.


Really the only Pookylynch scenario that makes sense is if Pooky is town and scum can pull off one more mislynch at some point in the game. I'm just not seeing it possible for Pooky to be scum and scum make up at least another day of fakeclaims.

[charter]

Oh wow, I went a little overboard there.

[charter]

I guess what I'm saying is, Balter needs to come up with a Pookyscum theory that would let scum win had Pooky been lynched day three. If he can't, then I don't see why we need to drag this game out much longer.

[charter]

Hmmm, might have another one.

ekim nightkilled.
Tajo hides behind rofl or doesn't hide.
rofl investigates Thesp, says he's vanilla.
These people would be confirmed: tajo, charter, rofl, yos, balter, kmd, Thesp
Leaving: elvis, serial, user, zu faul
We would lynch elvis.
Night four, scum have to kill off thesp or charter, say charter.
Day five would be these people alive: tajo, rofl, yos, balter, kmd, thesp, serial, user, zu faul.
Tajo doesn't hide.
rofl has to investigate zu faul. I suppose he could try and pull that zu faul is vanilla.
However, that would mean the scumteam would have to be serial, user, Pooky. Not gonna fly.
What if he says zu faul is not vanilla. Lynch Zu faul.
Night five scum would have to kill Thesp.
Day six, these people are alive: tajo, rofl, yos, balter, kmd, serial, user
They would have to try and pull a lynch on serial or user, saying the scumteam is serial, user, zu faul, pooky.

Still, doubt anyone is going to buy it. As this would mean that scum are killing off vanilla's instead of tajo or rofl or kmd, or any power roles. Pretty sure someone would have figured this out.

I REALLY don't think Pooky can be scum.

[charter]

Hmmm, what about.
ekim nightkilled
rofl investigates zu faul, innocent.
tajo doesn't hide.
Confirmed: tajo, charter, rofl, yos, balter, kmd, zu faul
Leaving: elvis, serial, user, thesp
Lynch Elvis or thesp, say elvis, she flips town.
rofl has to investigate thesp, pretend to get a guilty.
Nightkill charter.
Day breaks with these people alive: tajo, rofl, yos, balter, kmd, zu faul, serial, user, thesp
These people would be confirmed: tajo, rofl, yos, balter, kmd, zu faul
Would mean the scumteam would have to be thesp, serial, user, Pooky. Might be able to push a lynch on to thesp there and push the rest of that scumteam.

This is the most likely scenario I can come up with, still, I dunno. Completely implausible since Thesp and username were voting Pooky. Scum would have to say bussing, but yeah, don't think that would fly.

I think if Balter can't come up with a strategy for scum to win that's better than this one with Pooky being scum, than I think Balter is confirmed scum. This one right here is pretty shaky, but it's the best thing I could think of.

Like I said, point out things I'm missing, but I'm not sure I'm missing anything in this latest one. I think the pivotal things I assume are ekim absolutely must be nightkilled and rofl can only investigate claimed vanillas.

In order for this scenario to work, scum would have to make us believe that username and thesp bussed Pooky. This seems pretty ridiculous when either of them, especially username, could have voted tajo claiming that rofl's story conflicted with his. I dunno, it's just not making sense.

[elvis_knits]

OMG...

Reading the beginning of Day 3...

serial, iam, thesp, pooky all try to get a VP wagon going.

rofl, yos, zu, tajo, all against VP wagon.

Then rofl wagon gets going to force his claim, which ends up much later resulting in tajo lynch. And we all know how that goes. But the way Day 3 starts and people wna tto return to the VP wagon after mislynching xyl, the reactions are so telling. I SEE NO POSSIBLE WAY VP IS NOT SCUM.

i don't think there's any chance that ojanen investigated baltar

Doing a re-read on ojanen now. Re-reading her, I doubt she investigated either eikM or VP; early in day 2 she voted eikM, and didn't mention VP, and later in day 2 she voted VP and didn't mention eikM.

-Day 2 started Augest 23rd, she voted eikM on the 24th, didn't vote VP until she did a iso read on him on the 28th. If she had a guilty on VP, I doubt she would someone else for 4 days and 8 posts.

Sorry, why is noone voting Baltar?

I'm not sure that's a logical case, until we know VP's alignment. I mean, I could just as easily say that the wagon on you came very close to a lynch and then was massively derailed by the VP Baller wagon.

It's especially iffy since your case against VP seems to be assuming that ROFL is scum, and I tend to doubt that.

Vote: VP Baltar

Do not look at my scumlist in post 1157

My argument to lynch Baltar is for ALL the reasons he should have been lynched yesterday (which you voted for, coincidentally)
PLUS the fact that it's hard to explain the shift away from him to a different townie if VP is town
PLUS the fact the wagon is now more sound due to the flips of those that were pushing it

i'd put baltar higher than either kmd or IAM on the list of "i think are scum" tho.

mostly cuz after yesterday you'd expect the push to be for baltar due to the whole gooncop pointing at baltar all day yesterday. instead iam opens up with this comment about how VP baltar is still scum then pushes at me with a vote.

Vote: VP Baltar.

I thought VP Baltar was scummy yesterday, but I'm really uncomfortable with the line of reasoning people are using. They're basically one of the below:

1. "There are two people who were attacking him yesterday who we now know are pro-town!" Translation: the scum killed someone last night who was attacking VP Balter yesterday, except no one seems to want to put it that way, I guess because if they did then it would be obvious that it was a weak WIFOM argument.

2. "A goon cop was voting him!" Do you really think she had a guilty on him? It seems pretty clear to me that she didn't, reading her posts. She didn't "waffle" on her initial vote, she came out hard against eikM and stayed there for a long time.

That being said, I'm really not happy with VP's level of contribution this game; he hasn't been lurking, but he hasn't really been scumhunting much either. VP, who do you think is scum, and why?

i don't like the return to the vp baltar wagon. i think he's telling the truth about his role.

I got a feeling Baltar is not the way to go. I doubt he was investigated by Ojanen. She did not even mention him until others voiced their suspicions of him.

Pooky has done nothing to easy my suspicions. His argument against VP Baltar is: "Well, Goon Cop voted him." Also, he is trying to misinterpret KMD. It looks like he grabs whatever argument is conveniently lying around, regardless of its value, instead of actual scumhunting.

VP IS SCUM. I AM VOTING HIM. NO POSSIBLE WAY ALL SCUMBAGS BACK YOU UP LIKE THAT WHEN A BUNCHA TOWNS WANT YOU DEAD.

Even Yos, who made a soft buss on VP day2 protected VP on Day3.

VP IS SCUM.

[charter]

Ok, was waiting for Elvis to make a decision.

I AM TREESTUMP

I wanted to come up with some clever post for that, but meh.

[charter]

ps GO TOWN!

[elvis_knits]

I think you're supposed to say "I AM A TREESTUMP."

[elvis_knits]

BLAH.

Who cares.

Charter is not scum.

vote vp baltar

[elvis_knits]

charter, if your stumping didn't count, feel free to just vote VP. He has to be scum. I don't care about you stumping at this point.

[VP Baltar]

[charter]

Well, Balter just confessed. Just waiting for pooky now.

[elvis_knits]

Pooky hasn't voted VP Baltar? What is his problem?! lol... pooky!