Open 202 - Friends JK 9 (Game Over)

[don_johnson]

woot! /confirmatory playas!

[don_johnson]

vote: semioldguy

obvscum

[don_johnson]

my knowledge of lowell is that he lurks. fatally so. i've read him lynched as doctor. i have yet to read a game of his where he participates a good deal and responds to pressure. he's a good candidate for policy lynch, however, i have yet to see a policy lynch on this site hit scum. so...

[don_johnson]

post 63 seems to imply that TDC is scummy, but semi votes wdjat. why?

also, what are the "good points" raised by lowell and SA?

[don_johnson]

i am here. maybe we should lynch each other. that always seems to get a game going.

[don_johnson]

wait, unvoting from L-1 is abad thing?

[don_johnson]

didn't see that but i just noticed his "townsperson" tag. i don't really see any reason to lynch serrose at this point. probably more suited to be a night target for one of our power roles.

unvote, vote: sleepless in seattle

he seems to have the worst case so far.

[don_johnson]

Where did this sudden epiphany come from? You have several unrelated posts above, so what caused you to build this case?

maybe it was a knee jerk reaction to my brilliant case on his scumpartner.

[don_johnson]

@don_johnson
Sleepless Assassin also seems to be missing. Why is his case the worst in your opinion? Please make comparisons to other bad cases to show why his is worse than other bad cases you see.

odd. never said their were any "bad" cases. just that sleepless had the worst. worst olympian on the podium is still pretty good, so whatever. read into it what you like. he voted ness with weak reasoning. now he pushes suspicion on confid with weak reasoning. he's making the worst cases. of course, i do need to reread the last couple of pages, but noone else is sticking out to me yet.

122: semi was my random vote. had to unvote to drop my first serious one.

Any perticular reason you're directing power roles, DJ?

offering suggestions is far from "directing". i am confident that power roles can make up their own minds. i was more alluding to the fact that it is not in town's best interest to lynch a player who is ultimately null tell. null tell players are better targeted with night actions. doesn't make a difference what set-up you are in.

[don_johnson]

not really sure what you're asking here. you just double voted serrose. obviously, you think your case is good. i need to read it before i agree, but why do you need me to compare it to SA's vote if ytou are so sure of it that you double voted? do you think SA is playing well? i guess i just don't understand why you are defending him.

[don_johnson]

at the time SA voted, we were still in a seeming joke vote stage. there wasn't much going on. he switched his random vote to what i can only assume was a serious vote with poor(and piggybacked) reasoning. hence, at that time it was the "worst" case in my mind. it also seemed like joke vote # 2, which would be alright on page 1 or 2, but i believe he was attempting to leave the RVS which is what makes it a bad vote. until he returns and participates i see no reason to move my vote at this time.

dry-fit: null tell means you can't read a player. they appear as neither scum nor town.

[don_johnson]

That being said, if you are scum, Lowell is town.

^^ this is a horrendous false dichotomy. please explain.

unvote, vote confid

Three reasons:
1) OMGUS
2) His passing mention of his predecessor's play is strange. It's like he wanted to cut off a potential liability (if there was one) before anyone could bring it up. His staged diplomacy in the process and in the post after is basically useless.
3) He's made an "anyone here?" post, but hasn't followed up with anything to get the game moving, other than a spiritless attack on someone (me), which he quickly caveats by saying it could be nothing. Kind of an... obvious thing to say. Like a cheap out to be used later on if needed.

2 seems to restate my point and I agree with 3.

2 is null tell. it is in a townies best interest to separate themselves from their predecessors play if it is, in fact, questionable. nothing wrong with three. there is not much activity here, you say agree with a contradiction. "he hasn't followed up with anything". wrong. a spiritless attack is still something.

Actually, my initial suspicion came from Nessa, who Confid replaced. Confid just hasn't looked town enough for me to forget how scummy Nessa was and there's even some points against Confid himself.

a nice summary of the case would be helpful.

When did I random vote?

you voted lowell with no posted reasoning. never explained why you switched your vote off him and it occurred during the RVS. i consider that "random". not by the strict definition of the word, but i loathe semantics arguments. if it wasn't random/joke, then what was it?

Also, I disagree about my reasoning being weak. And I didn't piggyback anyone. I think for myself most of the time.

you capitalized on wdjat's pressure. hence, piggybacking. then you push suspicion at wdjat directly after lowell votes him in post 57/58.

I never even made joke vote 1, so how could I make a second? And how can you call my vote on Nessa both a joke vote and a serious vote. It's one or the other. Either there is a reason for it (there was) or there isn't. You can't have both.

i didn't call your nessa vote a joke vote. if it is a joke vote, please say so. if its not, then your reasoning is poor. again, how do you classify your first vote of the game? what caused you to unvote that player? please don't argue semantics of the words "joke" and "random".

And what is wrong with leaving the RVS?

nothing. is that what you were doing? if so, then you have to concede that your first vote was random/joke. so please, explain further.

[don_johnson]

ebwop: the semi quote is not semi. please attribute it to "sleepygaspasser".

[don_johnson]

unvote

good response. i will have to reread the timeline on the "piggybacking" accusation, but if your timeline is correct, then i will retract it. if you want your earlier game votes to be taken seriously, they should be fleshed out when they are given. i don't think its out of line for me to interpret them as random/joke when the reasoning is not concretely attached. that said, i think i have a new case a brewin.

That's what I thought. Just because you aren't able to read him, why does that make you think the rest of us can't?

i need to iso your posts, but you are rubbing me the wrong way. you seem to be attributing comments to me that i never made. i don't think i said i was unable to read him, and i also don't think i said the rest of you can't either. please go back and read what i posted in its context and get back to me. in the meantime, i am going to analyze your contributions.

[don_johnson]

ebwop:

unvote

[don_johnson]

you are isolating the comments from the discussion they were in. hence, taking the quotes out of context.

the first quote is a general statement of mafia theory. it was posted in response to another player voting for someone who, by their own posts, indicated a null-tell read on another player.

the second is me defining a term for you.

it was not me "describing him" that way. it was me interpreting another players description of his play. read the quotes in context with the discussion and it should be obvious.

[don_johnson]

i am not sure what the dj/dry spat is about either. he seems intent on twisting my words and ignoring context, though, which is just getting annoying.

164: i don't see any reason to take confid off the list at this point. there have been a couple good points made by lowell and tdc. i am not sure why wdjat is even being considered. is there a case against him?

[don_johnson]

@DJ: After rereading the thread, I'm still not sure who you were referring to that said he was null, but I'm willing to drop it.

sorry. noone actually said he was null. the case against him seemed to be because players couldn't get a good read on him. to me, that implied that he was what i would refer to as "null-tell". my strategy with null-tell players is to target them with things like vig kills, investigations, etc. it was a general statement of mafia theory. not meant to direct anyone. but yeah, we can drop it. the conversation seemed to be in a negative spiral. on to bigger things:

vote: confid

L-1. nobody hammer. let's get a claim. he doesn't look good on reread. two days to deadline. discuss...

[don_johnson]

extension doesn't really alter my view here. lurkers need to post.

[don_johnson]

hello and thanks for replkacing in. this game is breathing heavy and labored. i can support a dry-fit wagon. its nice to see that someone noticed his odd behavior besides me. i always find it difficult to build a good case against someone who is attacking you without having it look like omgus and being discredited, so i appreciate your insight there.

first inconsistency i see in your posts, though, is the idea that my early semi vote could be a buss. this is just after you give semi a strong townie read. just seemed nonsequitur to me. i would like to look through your posts a bit more. with five days to deadline i think we need more participation. i am not moving my vote unless confid comes back and convinces me to at this point. dry-fit being my number two and not being on the confid wagon also makes me think we might have this one right, but we'll have to see and get more participation from others.

[don_johnson]

unvote, vote dry-fit

i agree that this is not the correct reaction and as i said before, i am down with the dry wagon. confid is being replaced. i consider that slot our deadline lynch if need be. to scummy players flaking under pressure should not be ignored. in the meantime...

[don_johnson]

Even if the point is good, making these suggestions can be scummy, because it attempts to divert an investigative night action away from oneself. It would be in scum's best interest to do this.

my post was made in response to what i percieved as a "bad" case. that not withstanding, directing power roles is only scummy if scum is directing them. suggesting that a particular player be investigated can actually help a newb powerrole or inexperienced player find scum. anyone pushing the idea that what i said was "scummy" is just looking for town points imo. we have no guarantee that the player i suggested be "targeted" is, in fact, town. dry-fit is twisting words and took my post completely out of its context. my statement wasn't made to "direct" power roles. sure you can interpret it that way, but when placed in the original context it is obvious that the intent is to point out a poor case, and not to actually direct anyone.

[don_johnson]

unvote

off to bed. i kind of see what you are saying, and redoing iso on dryu i kind of get where he was coming from as well. my biggest issue with him was iso 9. i felt like that is where he really took my comments and tried to give them a life of their own. i need to reread biohazard and your response. i am fairly comfortable with you at this point. i'll get back to this tomorrow.

[don_johnson]

semi, did you notice this?

I'm not too happy with the was semioldguy is jumping to Dry-fit's defense either. Either he's falling prey to some buddying or he's doing some buddying of his own. I suspect it's the former.

if wdjat is implying that dry-fit is "buddying", then that implies that he is scum. so, in wdjat's opinion, the scum team is bio/dry. what do you make of that, and do you agree/disagree with the comment?

[don_johnson]

pretty sure bio is at L-1 and has already claimed. no need to lynch just yet.

[don_johnson]

Clearly I did notice it. I quoted and commented on it.

Buddying is not exclusive to scum, but possible implications are also noted.

sorry, a bit rhetorical. i realize you commented on it, but i want to know what you think of wdjat. the comment doesn't strike you at all as odd? wdjat is clearly implying scumpartners imo. clearly going for one and not the other. i want your take.

[don_johnson]

i guess what's odd to me is that wdjat is implying that dry-fit might be scum with bio,

and

that dry-fit might be scum with you(though he clearly favors scum with bio). it seems like the speculation of a player who thinks dry-fit is scum, and yet votes elsewhere(popular bandwagon). the post implies(imo) that wdjat has a stronger scum read on dry than on bio(though he obviously attempts to say different.) my contention here would be that this would be an awfully convenient distancing ploy for a dry-fit/wdjat scum team. i know i know, scum teams on day 1 is just speculation, but the behavior seems odd as well coming from a townie. if bio flips town, wdjat clears himself of responsibility for pursuing dry(arguably his stronger scum read) based on his pairing. honestly it makes me

not

want to lynch bio. i'll have to think on this a bit more...

[don_johnson]

what exactly was so scummy about serrose?

[don_johnson]

vote: biohazard

more likely scum imo.

[don_johnson]

Why hadn't the jailer jailed Semi, it was quite clear he needed the protection...

how was it "quite" clear?

Also, the tracker should claim if they got a guilty report last night. We can use the jail keeper to protect them the remaining nights leaving us having a clear alive throughout the game, and also a mafia down.

no. tracker should not "claim" yet. tracker doesn't get innocent, guilty results. they see if someone moved at night. jailer doesn't only "protect" either. they also roleblock. you seem eager to out town's power roles. you made a similar suggestion yesterday.

dry-fit hasn't posted today, so what exactly would have "disproved" your suspicions by now?

[don_johnson]

Yes, I'm used to EpicMafia.com where power-roles come out fairly early, share their information and help us catch the mafia. Tracker would know they have a guilty, not sure what you're on about because wouldn't the mafia visit Semi the dead who clearly the jailer did not visit otherwise Semi wouldn't be dead.

um, okay. that makes sense, but unless tracker has that result they should definitely not claim.

The night death, the lead up to the hammer and what alignment Bio flipped.

not following you here.

going into last night i was pretty sure dry-fit was scum, so i'm not going to argue with you too much here.

i just don't think power roles need to be claiming right off the bat. even if tracker has positive results, there is still the matter of finding the other mafia. i'd like to see more opinions first.

reg: i often follow the "one scum on, one scum off the vanilla townie day1 wagon" theory. do you think it applies here?

[don_johnson]

@Don, why, who would you have considered as the 'obvious protect' or more likely to die at night?

i would have "protected" TDC. however, in this set-up, i imagine the jailer was looking to jail scum.

[don_johnson]

its not a complicated theory. its just the idea that both scum avoid being on the same wagon on day 1 due to the heavy application of "bandwagon analysis" that goes on on this site. but obviously, you don't buy into it, so that's fine. i'll have to iso dry-fit, but ic ould definitely drop a vote there today. i want to see where he professed Bio being townie.

is there anybody out there?

[don_johnson]

"if we lynch mafia" is the key phrase there.

TDC: i have no idea. i have only used the theory twice, and it rang true both times(if i remember correctly), however, one time i was scum so i knew ahead of time. i wouldn't call it reliable just yet. i more or eless wanted an answer from regfan. he's really got me fence sitting. the power role talk and the nk speculation makes me want to lynch him, but its hard to argue with some of his points.

needing more input from others...

[don_johnson]

it is a pipe dream of mine to someday sit down with a team of research analysts and comb hundreds of mafia threads and accumulate enough data for serious statistical voting analysis, but alas, i have other things to do.

lowell: do you have any other relevant thoughts on who to lynch?

[don_johnson]

Don_Johnson, is Regfan your scumbuddy?

i do not have a scumbuddy. did i miss something? are we back in the rvs? contributions like this are rather weak. hows about you try some scumhunting. if you think one or both of regfan and myself are scum then making a case would be the proper way to proceed. otherwise you are active lurking...

[don_johnson]

wdjat: reads on anyone else?

[don_johnson]

lurking lurkers are lurking...

that said, i'd be happy with dry-fit or wdjat.

[don_johnson]

ebwop: actually, i would be willing to lynch SA over dry-fit. keep forgetting he's here... with bio flipping town, i think regfan is less likely to be scum, no?

[don_johnson]

dry-fit: i'll answer you later, but i was looking for others to answer my question.

vote: wdjat

i think this is the most likely scum at this point. gut town read on Lowell makes no sense.

[don_johnson]

i was just wondering if anyone had them paired. didn't regfan defend bio a bit yesterday? i could be wrong about regfan, but i think his effort is certainly pro-town. lowell on the other hand, has gotten considerably anti-town(winks at wdjat)...

having a "gut" town read on a lurker doesn't make sense to me.

My gut says Lowell is town. His play play is not that great, but it reads to me like a decent town player trapped in the body of a crappy player.

the whole "trapped" bit really seems off.

i think SA should be lynched, though.

[don_johnson]

welcome back lowell.

i'd rather not vote for dry-fit today.

lowell: if you think dry-fit/regfan is a possibility, would you consider switching to reg?

[don_johnson]

sorry. maybe i am misposting here. i am not trying to "coerce" lowell to do anything. just trying to gain clarity as to his stance. i read his post as having a dry-fit/don suspicion and a regfan/don suspicion. voting dry-fit doesn't really seem to clear that up. it would make more sense for him to vote me as he thinks i am scum in both situations, no? perhaps i am misreading. looking at it again he does not seem to imply reg/dj as a necessity.

dry-fit was my number one suspect going into night phase. but no, not so much now. regfan is kind of all over the place for me. some of what he posts makes sense, but some of the stuff just seems so scummy. wdjat(i think replaced serose?) seems like the best lynch atm. so i guess my list would look like this:

wdjat
regfan
dry-fit.

dammit. i keep forgetting that SA is in this game. i don't like the fact that he's getting a pass here.

unvote, vote: sleeplessassasin.

let's see what happens. right now i think that lowell and TDC are the two players i am least likely to vote.

[don_johnson]

306 is wierd. i need to look at that a bit more. you seem to be condeming reg for something dry-fit did as well while actually exhonorating dry-fit from actually doing it. this game is confusing me. i think a reread is in order.

[don_johnson]

mod: hows about a votecount?

[don_johnson]

a quick iso of wdjat shows a consistent and dynamic avoidance of any suspicion regarding lowell. not sure how to read that. try it. its fun.

[don_johnson]

So do you see him as necessarily anti-town in the way he's acting?

lowell on the other hand, has gotten considerably anti-town

That's hardly an answer to my question.

actually, its quite a direct answer to your question. also, please note that as soon as the subject was broached, lowell showed up with a post. certainly resembles "active" lurking... beginning to rethink the whole "i doubt i'll vote lowell" thingy.

[don_johnson]

unvote, vote: regfan

we're going nowhere fast. this:

I myself would consider voting Wdjat later within the game

makes no sense to me.

not sure why people are giving SA a pass.

that's L-1.

[don_johnson]

Where did that SA vote coming from? Is he getting a free pass because a couple of people said they have a town read on him?

i think SA should be lynched. noone else seems to be suspicious of him. i am not sure why people are giving him a free pass.

[don_johnson]

i have already covered that. its not the only way to get a lynch by any means and i never indicated that was the case. there was(is) zero interest in the SA wagon, so I moved to who i feel is the more suspicious of the two leading candidates.

lowell: do you think reg is town? calling a dry/don scum team before reg's flip, with SA lurking just seems premature. but whatever. no reason to move my vote. if you want dry lynched you have time to do it and both TDC and wdjat aren't voting. go ahead and make your case.

[don_johnson]

While I'm not sure I understand it either - if you're more suspicious of wdjat than of reg.. why are you not trying to convince him to vote wdjat now rather than later? Instead you're trying to make sure there is no later for him?

he's at L-1. i didn't hammer. i have tried convincing people to vote wdjat. you are bordering on an either/or fallacy here. the statement seems off to me, and the case on reg exists. reg's flip helps town either way.

You'll find that I questioned his Regfan vote and that he hasn't posted ever since.

Are you bothered by your fellow co-wagoners being SA and Dry-fit?

yes and no. tomorrow is possible lylo if reg is lynched and flips town. open set-up means thats a given(i.e. no vig/sk shenanigans). he's not claiming power which means town still has pr's to work at night against two goons. we're not going to find scum by twiddling our thumbs and hemming and hawing. it seemed to me that the decision was between reg and dry. i have been pretty consistent in laying out my suspicions. i think lowell, SA, and wdjat are all fine candidates for scum if reg flips town. i am thinking dry if reg flips scum.

[don_johnson]

reg, you said that you think dry is scum. if you are scum, then why would we take your advice and lynch who you think is scum the next day(wifom)? if you flip scum, i think a good case could be made that dry is actually your partner as bussing is quite common, and considering two town power roles are still in play means that scum needs to buy some townie cred. just because you are voting each other, also doesn't guarantee that either of you would get lynched. it could be a scum ploy gone bad. i don't know.

conversely, if you flip town, all of your insight into the game will be taken from that pov, so dry would most likely come under pressure which is what you(as town) would want. i'm not sure what the problem is here. i'm not going to give dry a pass if you flip town, but if you are scum, he remains at the top of my list. also, i didn't make a case on you. i never stated that i did. if you recall you are not my top choice. the case on you was made by others. your defense is wifom. if you claim a pr and are actually scum, then someone here will know 100% that you are scum. by claiming vanilla you have a better chance at survival without outing yourself. this is an open set-up. if scum claims power, power doesn't necessarily need to counterclaim right away. if you are town, i will take your thoughts into consideration. if you are scum, well then... please refrain from referring to my thoughts as "stupid". its unecessary. if you are who you say you are and you end up being lynched you need to keep trying to be helpful. i am trying to explain my thought process the best i can.

Really? Why would they shoot themselves in the foot like that?

bussing is rather standard play for scum. how are they "shooting themselves in the foot"? if the scum team is dry/reg, and we back off reg because we believe he is vanilla and lynch wdjat or lowell, then what? they haven't shot themselves in the foot at all. too many people are jumping to conclusions. are we just going to say "reg is town because he says he is?" or if he flips vanilla town, would it be the smartest thing to off and lynch dry based on reg's suspicions? no. there is more to this game than one players suspicions. we get reg's flip, we get another night of actions, possibly a flip in the morning, and then we reevaluate. static reasoning applied to a dynamic game is poor form.

this game is more intricate than that. we have two town power roles alive. if reg is town, pushing someone else to claim has the oppurtunity to greatly diminish town's chances of winning. this is an open set-up. you have to play a bit differently imo. scum and town.

you currently have a vote on noone. if you think dry is scum, then you should have put him to L-1 and asked for a claim. if you want to still do that, go ahead. i don't have a problem with the dry lynch, i would just prefer to lynch elsewhere.

seeing as how reg already claimed and claimed vanilla, i think the smart play is to see this through. i would like a bit more input from our lurkers before a hammer, but if we start flailing we may end up playing into scums hands. especially if all the active players are town.

[don_johnson]

But I'm finding it a bit disingenuous to be all "let's complete the lynch so we don't force a PR claim by wagoning someone else, he's the best lynch regardless of alignment now".

whoever gets lynched gets lynched "regardless" of alignment. all i'm saying is that we don't know reg's alignment. he may very well be scum. i'm entitled to my opinion. if you have a better idea, by all means.

I am yet to hear why SA is actually part of the claim wagon and I'd rather like to read that before deciding where I put my vote.

like i said: SA is my top choice.

Why would I put my vote on Dry and ask for his claim right now (or as you seem to infer, even before you voted Regfan), when I might well end up preferring SA? That would only risk ending in the same way as the Reg wagon..

put your vote wherever you want. i'm just saying that the choice is yours. you seem to be implying that i have some sort of power over you. i do not. do as you please.

Not sure why you appear to be in such a hurry.

i don't feel like i'm in a hurry. somebody has to be the player that advances the game. if everyone sits around twiddling their thumbs we get nowhere. i find that boring.

By the way, what do you think about the argument I had long ago with SA regarding Regfan's lack of knowledge of how night kills work on this site?

from what i recall you found reg's lack of knowledge rather genuine. personally i think its a bit wifom. regardless of how genuine it

seems

it inevitably becomes more valuable after reg's flip when we know whether or not it actually

is

genuine. could help to further analyze SA at that point.

regardless of reg's flip, i think town will be in a good position for tomorrow. hence, i'd rather not start flailing and risk weakening our position. i agree that if reg is town, it would be better to try and find scum, but then we are assuming that reg is in fact town, and we are increasing our chances of outing a remaining power role. so given the chance that reg may very well be scum, and that even if he is town his lynch will be informative, our best action may well be to simply move forward(after discussion is satisfied).

[don_johnson]

In response to Wifom I'm going to quote something I said in a finished game that I've already linked which is this:

you could call anything that's happened WIFOM really. That's why when you see everything, you consider both possibilities and make a decision, that's what I did and you seem to refute it only by posting the word WIFOM.

i am considering both possibilities. not sure what you are getting at here.

Go read your post again, it is indeed stupid you said this:

i think lowell, SA, and wdjat are all fine candidates for scum if reg flips town.

Meaning

when I flip town, you're not even going to consider my biggest suspect, the person I'm sure on.

bolded is the key word. you are attaching more meaning to my words than was intended.

So, you don't really suspect me, you don't think I'm mafia, but you want me lynched, again wtf? How about re-read Dry throughout the game and do an iso on him and vote an actual mafia.

i do suspect you. i think there is a good chance you will flip scum. if not, then we move on with that information to work with.

YOU YOU YOU, put me at L-1. YOU, forced me to claim. Now YOU are saying that since I've claimed you might as well lynch me. Do you not see how you are the one pushing this lynch now?

i can't vote you again. yes. i support your lynch.

And do you honestly think I would buss with a tracker and jailer alive and town still having a msylnch, because that's pure stupidity.

no. bussing is a surefire way for scum to gain town cred. also, the possibility exists that you are scum with someone else.

I don't think you will be I think somehow Dry is going to slip out of getting lynched and mafia will win.

^^ this AtE does not help your case.

there are other players in this thread and we need more input from them. i'm not going to wagon hop around putting everyone at L-1.

[don_johnson]

there are other players in this thread and we need more input from them. i'm not going to wagon hop around putting everyone at L-1.

That's what you did to me.

no. you are not "everyone". you are one player.

And I'm still waiting and I'll repeat again since you seem to be dodging my question, what is this 'Case'?

the case is that you have been acting scummy. several players have pointed this out, even TDC. currently, all you are doing is saying "i am town". that's not going to change my mind. at this point i would like your flip so as i can then analyze the actions taking place around you. there is nothing more i can do to achieve that end. other players will need to chime in. i expect good reasoning from anyone wielding a hammer vote. if you can convince enough players to change wagons and choose a different lynch, then so be it.

SA: you have basically been lurking and not contributing. that is what i am referencing in "the pass". i thought i already posted some suspicions of you, i will recheck. if not, i will go back and flesh them out. at this point i am not interested in pursuing another lynch candidate, however. so we'll see.

[don_johnson]

If you care to read back, I've done a player-by-player evaluation, an updated evaluation, and an Iso on my biggest suspect, is there honestly any more you want from me, or that I can do?

no. we need other players to participate.

[don_johnson]

Both of them leaning on the Regfan lynch based

purely on momentum

is really scummy. I mean, I get how the votes got there in the first place but the reasoning their both using to encourage that fourth vote.

noones "encouraging" a fourth vote. i explicitly asked that a hammer vote be well explained. i have also suggested to the players who are not happy with this wagon to feel free to work on getting other ones started. not sure what the bolded is supposed to mean. i believe we both independently stated that we don't think moving is a good idea in order to protect town power roles. do you disagree? if so, why?

So, you're saying, you pretty much refuse to change your vote right now. Instead you'd rather just keep the lynch going and then 'Read whats happened when I flip town'? That seems unproductive.

you seem to be heaping the responsibility of "productiveness" solely on me. TDC and wdjat are the ones with an oppurtunity to shift the focus of the day's activities. i do not have a solid reason at this point to move off the wagon of a claimed vanilla whose alignment is questionable.

[don_johnson]

Prod Dry-Fit Please

whole lotta fence sitters...

[don_johnson]

active lurk much?

seriously. five minutes after i mention your name? awesome.

He's scummy because no one is suspicious of him?

no. those were two separate sentences.

he's scummy.

no one else seems to be suspicious of him.

I don't see you implying any suspicion of him since page six. Why is he your preferred lynch?

all of this inactivity kind of bothers me, but he seemed the most likely to flip scum. the fact that nothing is really happening in this thread is a bit worrisome. the fact that you haven't posted here in five days, but chime in with a half-assed misrep five minutes after i bolded your name is a bit odd too. if you read my post, you will see that SA seemed to drop off of

everyones

radar for quite a while. not just mine.

what is your read on SA?
what is your read on Reg and his claim?
what is your read on TDC?

[don_johnson]

*crickets*

[don_johnson]

yes. lowell's reasoning would imply that reg is scum.

wdjat: please place your vote where you feel it will best serve town. i am not going to argue with you about the semantics of the word "encourage". if you don't like the reg wagon then do something about it. i have done my part. now its your turn.

dry: would you mind regurgitating what it was about serrose that was scummy? you seem to be implying that you are lynching reg for serrose' actions, not reg's. if that's the case i would like a quick rehash of the case on serrose. i agree about TDC. SA i will have to take another look. there are a couple of points that have been made against him. i will look back and try to organize them for you.

[don_johnson]

dry: okay. just wanted clarity.

wdjat, TDC: you guys gonna place a vote?

[don_johnson]

unvote

let's get some activity. wdjat needs to vote, and those on a wagon should discuss more about why they don't to move(unless they do).

i'm willing to move to a SA wagon for previously stated reasons.

[don_johnson]

v/la til april 3.

[don_johnson]

back. will post tonight.

[don_johnson]

please tell me thats not a lynch.

[don_johnson]

did we get a claim? if not, we probably should.

[don_johnson]

tru dat. i'll hammer before deadline. you need to claim unless lowell switches here.

vote: reg

there's some incentive.

[don_johnson]

unvote, vote: dry-fit

failure to claim by deadline. hope you're not a pr.

[don_johnson]

FoS Wdjat

for not voting all day yesterday. is this a no lynch situation? hey scum, if you both claim now i'll buy you popsicles. deal?

[don_johnson]

no lynches are strategically more effective without conversation. unless pr's are confident in lynching today i suggest we just move on once we have majority.

[don_johnson]

Firstly I'm not mafia. And before we no lynch I believe the best play is for tracker to claim, out all of his reports and then the jailer jails him. Therefore the chance a power-role can die is lessened greatly. Changing it from 2/3 of a power-role dying to a 1/2.

your wording is incorrect but your math looks right. its 2/4 to 1/3. unfortunate thing, is that your plan increases the scum chances of hitting the jailer while neutering further results from the tracker. its a nice plan. no kill last night to wifom the jailer, get the tracker to claim an innocent on you or your buddy. then increase your chances of hitting the jailer to eliminate that threat in case your plan goes south while leaving one of you as virtually confirmed. having jailer jail the tracker is too much.

vote: regfan

i am the jailer. i jailed dry-fit night one. last night i stayed home. TRACKER SHOULD MOST CERTAINLY NOT CLAIM!!

[don_johnson]

its not lylo. the no kill plus tracker claim with results plus jk keeping tracker is actually a perfect way for you to coast the rest of the game as virtually "confirmed" town. i'm making perfect sense. i'm betting the game that the scum team is reg/lowell. your strategies haven't made sense from the start. you've been trying to out power roles since you came into this game. now, your buddy is joining in. its pretty cut and dry here. we lynch you. if you're not scum then its game over. if you flip scum(which i overwhelmingly think you will) then tracker calls in a target and i keep my action to myself. scum most likely no kills again. tracker claims tomorrow and the two of us figure out the last scum. only hitch to the plan is wdjat. but whatever. let's get some more thoughts in here. we are not no lynching today. [/spoiler]

[don_johnson]

No Don it's not lylo, but it is mylo meaning lynching me does result in a loss. My plan of tracker claiming for protection was actually a really really good one and would have resulted in a higher chance a vanilla townie dies tonight. Yet you're too blind to actually see that and you will continuously push on me throughout the whole day, I can already foresee that.

what good is a tracker with no results? if they hit the jailkeep then not only would they have false results from last night, but tracker would be completely exposed if game went another night. also, trakcer may have tracked jailkeep already and those results would then expose jailkeep anyway. give it up. you're trying to out power roles. you got one, but its cost you the game.

[don_johnson]

you heard the man. vote him.

[don_johnson]

no lowell. i think scum deliberately no-killed. i stayed home to avoid this exact situation. i figured scum would try and find either myself or the tracker, but for some reason they chose to no-kill. the fact that reg is setting us up to get tracker results in thread, then neuter the tracker while increasing the chance of hitting jk makes me think he is scum. the fact that you avoided his wagon yesterday makes me think you may be his partner. SA is a close second. i am pretty sold on TDC town. wdjat is a bit of a problem, but i honestly think 2 scum is in lowell/reg/SA.

i'd like to hear from wdjat' slot if possible and a bit more from SA and TDC. i guess at some point a tracker claim would be a good idea seeing as how if i am wrong then its game. but i want some opinions on the table before it happens.

unvote

no lynch is no longer a good option. let's get some opinions, maybe a tracker claim, and then we lynch.

[don_johnson]

I'm not a jailkeeper.

Tracker shouldn't claim.

Regfan should be lynched followed by TDC (assuming no counters).

why TDC?

[don_johnson]

Cuz you are town unless you are fakeclaiming in which case we'll find out soon enough.

repeat question. why TDC? what about him are you suspicious of?

[don_johnson]

So, not to get too meta about this, but the scum

have

to be the inactives at this point, right?

uh, no. not at all. no kill is a viable strategy to out a power role and further confuse town. if you want to think about it, the fact that there was no night extension actually would serve the idea that wdjat is in fact town. but that kind of logic is not in the spirit of the game. so lets not go there. lets lynch reg. or SA. no lynching at this point hands the game back to scum. i think we have a bit of advantage here in that

we know for a fact

that scum no-killed last night. most mods will randomize actions if powerroles fail to report. scum was obviously trying to either get themselves clear, or hope that jk would come out with a "successful" action. my thinking is that reg knew he would be tracked and/or locked up and decided to stay home. if tracked, he'd show innocent. if kept, then jk might claim and it could then go either way. gives his partner an easy way on the wagon if a bus is necessary, and the subsequent discussion may get the tracker to claim. the fact that reg was pushing for a tracker claim off the bat is a good indicator that i am correct.

[don_johnson]

its called playing it safe. scum stayed home. if one is tracked, then he's clear. if one is jailed, jk has to decide whether or not he saved a kill or stopped a kill. next day, suggest jailer keep tracker. narrow down chances of hitting jailer. lylo occurs(jailer most likely dead, tracker claiming possibly false results)= high chance for scum win. its not that difficult to understand.

[don_johnson]

Uhm, how is he cleared if nobody dies? That makes no sense.
Even if somebody dies, it could still have been his partner. Not going anywhere does not clear anyone unless there's only one scum left AND someone dies.

hypothetical. suppose i didn't claim. we no lynch after tracker claims today. wake up tomorrow and jk(me) is dead after having kept tracker. you sift my iso and realize i probably kept dry-fit night one but can't seem to figure out who i kept night two. tracker says, "i tracked lowell night one and regfan night two. neither went anywhere." this significantly increases both of their odds of being seen as innocent. lets not argue semantics. the jist of what i am implying should be extremely clear. arguing it helps noone but scum. FACT: SCUM NO KILLED LAST NIGHT. they obviously did so for a reason.

SA: you are starting to win me over.

vote: regfan

[don_johnson]

sorry, but 448 reads like a gambit. i don't buy it. funny thing, is i was actually reconsidering here and thinking about an SA/Lowell team, but after that contrived bullshit i am thinking SA/Reg.

no tracker claim. let's lynch reg, i'll keep who i feel like.

[don_johnson]

there is no reason for me to unvote. takes four to lynch. convince me who is scum if its not you. explain to me why they would no-kill. don't say "guys, i'm town," because we've heard enough of that. if you are town, tell us who is scum and why, don't bother explaining why we

shouldn't

lynch you.

[don_johnson]

funny that both you

and

reg are putting wdjat on the scumteam. the guys not even here. and no, we're not no lynching. if we do, we should get a tracker claim. no lynch should occur with zero discussion, but now that i'm out, we may as well narrow down the field and take the "counterclaim in lylo" card away from the scumteam. a mylo counterclaim is much better.

[don_johnson]

um. scum's prolly not going to kill tonight. its too risky. if they go for tracker the kill might fail, if they go for me, they might get tracked. most likely they no kill and hope i jail a vt. then push for the lynch based on "jk stopping the kill". that plan is all but shot to shit, which is why tracker should claim and we should lynch today. if scum want to counterclaim, make them do it now. if we get

two

believable tracker claims we can no lynch and let the trackers track each other while i randomize protection. i'm back to SA/Regfan. SA has been playing with a real lackidaisical attitude until now. all of a sudden he seems bent on looking town.

[don_johnson]

so who do you think is scum? do you want to lynch or no lynch?

[don_johnson]

whatever. if tracker doesn't want to claim then please realize i may keep you tonight. i will try to jail scum to prevent myself from being killed, but i may get you. it would be a shame if tracker winds up dead tonight and we get zero results from nights one and two.

[don_johnson]

tracker still targeted night two. who they targeted would probably help make the claim more believable, but yeah, with no movement its not that important. i still think we should just be lynching regfan. we got a huge emotional response to his fake hammer, a promise of new content, and no delivery. i don't see any reason to no lynch. scum has no reason to kill tonight and if tracker claims they kill tracker. if i jail tracker, we get no tracker results and we are in the same boat tomorrow. only thing going to night phase really does is give scum a chance to kill me. the fact that reg is obvscum should get us lynching today. then scum would really be forced into killing tonight if they want to bring the numbers down. and if they still didn't kill(assuming reg is scum), tomorrow won't be lylo.

vote: regfan

[don_johnson]

its been more than 48 hours. regfan blew a bunch of smoke up your asses and you fell for it. whatever. i'm staying on the lynch wagon.

[don_johnson]

>96 hours...

[don_johnson]

*crickets*

somewhere in the distance, a voice...


"regfan is scum..."

[don_johnson]

reg: who should i jail tonight? r u positive that TDC is town? could he be scum holding off to avoid exposing himself?

[don_johnson]

rules state no lynch at deadline. i really think the fact that scum no killed last night indicates reg as scum. unless they were hoping to have him jailed and then frame him. no kill is always "sub optimal" scum play, though, so it makes me think it was done for fear of tracking and nothing else.

reg's resoponse as to why he self voted is also weak. one vote doesn't put him in lynch range. it doesn't follow with his constant "I play mafia a certain way" statements. he claims that he would

never

no-kill as mafia, and that he thinks power roles should

always

claim early. then he self votes out of frustration? doesn't fit. yeah, i don't agree that TDC is cleared, but without reg's flip we can't be sure of anything. its risky, but necessary.

[don_johnson]

i don't see TDC scum without regscum. i can't really argue with 506. SA is my gut town read right now, but a regtown flip means he is scum with chnorek. period. no way scumTDC is stalling on a townie hammer in mylo. not sure what lowell is trying to accomplish here. sorry if you're town, reg, but you are the lynch.

TDC please hammer.

[don_johnson]

How do you think a no-kill last night makes me scum in any way, if anything it should be more proof that I'm town

considering I find no-killing wrong

.

you were most likely to be tracked last night. you are the one who benefits the most from staying home. bolded is subjective. its as good as saying "i'm town". its meaningless. you can type wahtever you want. it doesn't mean its the truth.

If you can really not see that chnorek is mafia from his recent posts, then this game is already over, and there isn't much point to continue to discuss anything as you've clearly got your mind stuck.

a) here we go with the fatalistic AtE again...

b) my mind is not stuck. we need your flip to make sense of this mess. letting you slide is a mistake. if you are town, then scum has played well. even if you are scum, your partner is really up in the air. so whatever. more likely than not, you are going to flip scum. so my vote stays and i again ask TDC to hammer.

[don_johnson]

ok. its obvious TDC doesn't want to end the day so i'll reread chnorek.

[don_johnson]

yeah. still not seein it.

[don_johnson]

if reg flips scum i'll jail TDC. hammer away.

[don_johnson]

oh well. i tried. i had TDC in the back of my mind, but regtown made me almost positive on the SA/chnorek duo and i telgraphed my town read on SA to hopefully draw him into sending in the kill.

note to mod: lack of kill send in should result in a randomized selection. just my opinion. otherwise, good job.

reg: sorry man. i need to stop relying on AtE and subjective data as scumtells. my last few games have all but disproved those theories. your posts were very town but i got hung up on those theories.

lowell: good job, but your lack of content is always going to hurt your credibility.