Oldy Mafia (Game Over, who won?)

[MrBuddyLee]

That's not entirely how I'm basing my read, but it's a significant confirmer/refuter of my own thoughts. If you both disagree with my lean that Porochaz is more likely scum than CES, obviously I'll reconsider. If one of you gives enough of a shit to make a good case, that means something. And unless CES is busing, we're probably going to lose unless all three townies vote together.


Your argument about CDB and Prozac not busing each other to start D6 is interesting. Do you have meta information to share about them or is it just common sense? And if so, what do you think of CES voting Prozac now? Does it make them less likely scumpartners?

I think that if you want to, you can make a convincing case for anyone being scum, given enough information. Winning an argument is based more upon the skill of the arguer than the merit of the case. I've said this before earlier on.

I'm not trying to win an argument per se, I'm just trying to present different angles on the situation. I don't even know who I'm arguing with. Two of you are basically ignoring what I say so you can pursue your scum agenda. Obviously, not every case town makes is correct. But if a bunch of cases synch up, particularly if they're from multiple people, they're more likely correct. I'm trying to get town to work together to attack this from different angles to find a complete story that makes sense.

But anyway, if the goal of the scum is to be right and not persuade anyone, isn't that what you just admitted to? Failing to get us to lynch CDB until now, etc. etc.?

Well, considering:
HackerHuck (6) -- Cogito Ergo Sum, ChannelDelibird, Lord Gurgi, Shanba, Zorblag, Ether
I guess you're right. Have you gone back to look at D4 to see who made the weakest cases on Huck, like I pointed out at the time? At least two scum were voting Huck if not three. Wouldn't you expect their cases to be the weakest because they're fabricated and knowingly false? Or at least smell funny?

Stated reasons for voting HackerHuck:

Flying under the radar, lurking, gut, the Glrok innocent result.

(My comment: the Glork result is a horrid reason to tack on, and without it, CES's read could just as easily be on CDB or Poro)

This is the main thing that I'm seeing with HH, that he just doesn't seem to be that bothered that he's not really having a great deal of influence on the game. Like, we keep seeing town corpses and he's just kind of sitting contentedly on the fact that he thinks Ether is scum. He's taken the points for taking an unsheeply stance on her but looks pretty happy not to have that tested any time soon.

Vote: HackerHuck

for now, subject to change if I find someone scummier but I'm interested enough to see where this goes.

(Not sure what I think about this. Pretty thin argument. Lazy man's genius? )

So I'm more in favour of lynching Huck today than I am MBL. VOTE: Huck

This is a really long post with very little substance

amongst a sea of lurkers. Active lurker alert.

See, saying the guy you just took your opinions from is scum is not kosher with me.

(Sound observations.)

The key things I think about Hackerhuck's play are the poor reads. It's one thing to be

wrong

, to make mistakes,

it's another to have bad analysis/reasoning for your reads. I think the latter is significantly scummier. Particularly, I'm not seeing that he has any feel for the game in the way I might expect a good townie to

- there's no sense of

when something happens

, he turns around and goes "whoa, what was that!" All the analysis he did, more or less, is rereading the thread. I think this is an indication of scumminess - I think town react far more to what's going on than scum do, and it's been setting off my gut for a while."

There is some immediate reacting going on, but when it happens it's fairly blunt. Like with inhim, he just goes "oh your claim is scummy

vote inhim

." I think that's honestly fairly opportunistic, and I think a townier approach to the wagon would involve more "WTF" and less "OMG VOTE INHIM". I'd note there's very little emotion in his play, but that

there's also little of the in depth analysis that non-passionate players (the likes of vollkan etc.) tend to thrive on.

It could be a playstyle thing, but it feels totally off.

His reads have been the same since pretty much his first post of day 2

- in particular, he's thought me and ether are scummy since his first votecount analysis thingy of that day. MBL, have your reads been the same since then? And yet he's not tunneling on us exactly. Sometimes people get locked into a viewpoint where they go "rah x is scum and damn the consequences I am gonna lynch the bastard" but then they tend to be actively pursuing the guy for as long as the madness lasts. People with weaker, less passionate reads tend to be more likely to let go. It's rare, I think, for someone to think that a person is scummy, get convinced that someone else is scummier and lynch them, and then go back to having the first guy as a mid level suspect, which is roughly how I'd characterise his play.

This is a post made mostly by my gut and theorycrafting. Logical rational shit doesn't come into it much here because a lot of my read on hackerhuck

is

gut and this is my attempt to quantify it.

(Sound observations.)

The HackerHuck lynch is find today and is probably my top choice.

A huge part of that is how he's interacted with Glork. It seems like there were a couple times when he was coming up with short lists that included Glork and somehow Glork just never got into the picture. I disliked how he reacted to the claim yesterday and he spent more energy than I think was reasonable arguing against a Glork lynch even as it became more apparent that it was a decent way to go

(but without going the over the top mindless being wrong route that Ether took.) The day one switch to a wagon that no one else was on when we were almost at deadline doesn't feel like a town move and overall I feel that he's just not a pro-town presence.

(Well-argued, nuanced point about interactions with known scum.)

Start of D4:
Ether votes Huck (1-0)
CES votes Huck (2-0)
CDB votes Huck (3-0)
The Cop votes CDB (3-1)
Ether wavers, cites Huck's vote on Porochaz
Shanba says he wants Huck dead today (4-1)

Ether

hops off Huck for a very shallow reason (3-1-1)

Ether

, why did you hop off Huck and stay off all day?

Townies give a shit. They pay attention. They take risks, hoping to lynch scum. Scum are more typically lazy, play it safe, and make mild remarks that don't get their scumpartners in much trouble and/or can't come back to bite them. Shanba, Zorblag and you sounded like townies while lynching Huck. Ether, CES and CDB didn't, and Poro didn't bother to vote or persuade despite finding Huck townish. Meanwhile, I was actively trying to get people to join CTD and me on CDB instead of afking or letting town+scum have their way or whatever. Sure, I'd make ok cases as scum. Maybe some long ones. But it's town's job to spot the truth in good cases and proclaim the casemakers town. Not to ignore the substance of cases and instead flip a coin at endgame because they think two players wouldn't have bused each other.

[Porochaz]

Sorry guys, didnt happen.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Your argument about CDB and Prozac not busing each other to start D6 is interesting. Do you have meta information to share about them or is it just common sense?

I think it's more likely to be uncommon sense.

MBL, were you really expecting an impressive case from me? In fact, I think that's something I'm more likely to do as scum.

[Lord Gurgi]

That's not entirely how I'm basing my read, but it's a significant confirmer/refuter of my own thoughts. If you both disagree with my lean that Porochaz is more likely scum than CES, obviously I'll reconsider. If one of you gives enough of a shit to make a good case, that means something. And unless CES is busing, we're probably going to lose unless all three townies vote together.

I guess I think that while my reasoning might not be convincing to someone who disagrees with the premise, I feel that CES just as much goes against your measure of a townie as the rest of us. Nonetheless you seem to give him a lot of slack.

Your argument about CDB and Prozac not busing each other to start D6 is interesting. Do you have meta information to share about them or is it just common sense? And if so, what do you think of CES voting Prozac now? Does it make them less likely scumpartners?

CDB and Prozac might not have participated this game much, but I still think they're decent players and decent people. They have the common sense not to make it a dilemma between teammates. That's about it for my reasoning on this.

I think that if you want to, you can make a convincing case for anyone being scum, given enough information. Winning an argument is based more upon the skill of the arguer than the merit of the case. I've said this before earlier on.

I'm not trying to win an argument per se, I'm just trying to present different angles on the situation. I don't even know who I'm arguing with. Two of you are basically ignoring what I say so you can pursue your scum agenda. Obviously, not every case town makes is correct. But if a bunch of cases synch up, particularly if they're from multiple people, they're more likely correct. I'm trying to get town to work together to attack this from different angles to find a complete story that makes sense.

This is where I make a difference between what we two are doing. Your style of argument is evidenciary, and you make cases by providing incidents where you feel someone is being anti-town. Now, I believe quite fundamentally that you could take the posts from any person in this game and provide evidence of such behaviour. It's inevitable. This is why I don't find that sort of case is expeditious for finding scum, as opposed to finding people who are doing a poor job of appearing town.

But anyway, if the goal of the scum is to be right and not persuade anyone, isn't that what you just admitted to? Failing to get us to lynch CDB until now, etc. etc.?

Well, considering:
HackerHuck (6) -- Cogito Ergo Sum, ChannelDelibird, Lord Gurgi, Shanba, Zorblag, Ether
I guess you're right. Have you gone back to look at D4 to see who made the weakest cases on Huck, like I pointed out at the time? At least two scum were voting Huck if not three. Wouldn't you expect their cases to be the weakest because they're fabricated and knowingly false? Or at least smell funny?
<snip>

I think is connected to the above. I think the weakest case might be produced by the worst arguer, or someone that has the time and interest to generate a good case. Good men go to jail and bad men go free. I'd say that a lot of the time this has to do with the skill and motivation of public defenders.

Townies give a shit. They pay attention. They take risks, hoping to lynch scum. Scum are more typically lazy, play it safe, and make mild remarks that don't get their scumpartners in much trouble and/or can't come back to bite them. Shanba, Zorblag and you sounded like townies while lynching Huck. Ether, CES and CDB didn't, and Poro didn't bother to vote or persuade despite finding Huck townish. Meanwhile, I was actively trying to get people to join CTD and me on CDB instead of afking or letting town+scum have their way or whatever. Sure, I'd make ok cases as scum. Maybe some long ones. But it's town's job to spot the truth in good cases and proclaim the casemakers town. Not to ignore the substance of cases and instead flip a coin at endgame because they think two players wouldn't have bused each other.

So you don't think it's substantive to base my play off of what I am. But I think you have to question your way of doing things by now. You have reached a point where everyone in the town is not performing as you believe the town should. That has to imply some sort of fault with that line of thinking.

[Patrick]

Votecount

Porochaz (1) -- Cogito Ergo Sum

Not voting: Ether, Porochaz, Lord Gurgi, MrBuddyLee
5 alive, 3 to lynch.

[Ether]

I'm inclined to vote Porochaz.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Woo.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

The deadline is Thursday by the bye.

[Porochaz]

I was going to make a larger post than this, and I hopefully will but can anyone tell me in the meantime how much of an impact CES has had in this game?

[MrBuddyLee]

Hey Porochaz, do you think CES is scum or not?

[Porochaz]

I do, but Id prefer to make a proper post detailing why before I vote.

[Lord Gurgi]

Well I got prodded. I guess I was no longer the last player to post.

[Ether]

I'm really more waiting on your acknowledgment of my last post than Porochaz's.

[MrBuddyLee]

Porochaz's behavior at present is unusual, to say the least.

[Porochaz]

If your talking about my one liners I have an exam today that Im revising for.

[Ether]

vote: Porochaz

[MrBuddyLee]

Aaand you can eliminate MBL-CES as a possible scumteam.

[Ether]

Yay.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

*hi-fives Ether*

[Porochaz]

Direct U-turn much? Post coming...

[Porochaz]

Ecto-Ythill argument is boring.

Unvote, vote: Untrod Tripod

I hate this post a lot, Im fairly sure it came up in the initial reread, not only stifling what was useful and the only decent line of questioning but it came with a baseless vote, which regardless of arguments is a bad vote. Its his third one of the game. His 6th post.

Granted you have your rvs but not one iota of content so far.

[Porochaz]

Hey Yosarian, take it from me: there's no reason to be voting for chamber currently. Try voting for Ectoplascum instead.

Post 12, and here is an example of CES trying to direct people's votes. Now tajo and Parama do this as well to use 2 examples but they are a lot more agressive about it and usually at least say they have a reason

No posts yet have content.

[Porochaz]

Mert, Glork, CES, Yos, DGB, why specifically are you voting Ecto?

The same reasons why I originally switched my vote to him, just on a broader scale. Yos2 and Ecto's recent crossvoting looks like distancing, too.

Fritz and CES, is the guy scum?

Yes.

Post 19 (18 is iso, Im including 0 as a post) and we are getting slightly more but he has lead the charge on yos with what reasoning? For something to me which doesnt make sense and because his suspicion of chamber was "suspiciously high" really?

[Porochaz]

You just have the wrong opinion. Mertlynch is the only viable course of action.

This was always wrong.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Those two quotes were about Ectomancer, not Yos.

P.S. directing votes away from a townie strikes me as a good thing.