Oldy Mafia (Game Over, who won?)

[HackerHuck]

I think I've played with everyone but Lord Gurgi and Shanba.

Vote: MBL

Welcome back

[HackerHuck]

Plan B: Start a wagon on a lurker.
Hmm. Don't really see anyone lurking yet. Closest is HH, but even he posted 48 hours ago.

Hey, I'm trying.

Maybe we should all be voting for the guy who isn't voting. MBL needs reminding how to play mafia.

[HackerHuck]

Not liking Ythill's lurker defence here. It makes sense to pressure people by forcing them to be active or be replaced. If someone keeps skating by then there is a good chance they're scum.

Unvote: MBL
Vote: Ythill

I do realise the slight hypocrisy in unvoting someone who has not been posting, but I think Ythill's behaviour is suspect.

[HackerHuck]

I don't like the idea of letting people get away with lurking just because we're OK with them eventually getting replaced by the deep bench there is here. I don't want to give him an excuse for not going after lurkers. I only see it as helping scum in that way.

[HackerHuck]

I don't like the idea of letting people get away with lurking just because we're OK with them eventually getting replaced by the deep bench there is here. I don't want to give him an excuse for not going after lurkers. I only see it as helping scum in that way.

That's fine, but you didn't really answer my question, which is "do you think Ythill's comments about lurkers were scum motivated or if it was just incorrect mafia theory?" Like, do you actually think that he's scum who's deliberately setting up something to encourage people to lurk as part of a long-term plan to sabotage the town?

Kind of thought I did. I wouldn't vote for him because I disagree with his mafia theory. The setup of your question is a little troublesome. My point - obviously not clear enough - is that I could see it being a setup for a scum defence against lynching or even pressuring lurkers. It's kind of early to tell at this stage, but if he's scum and has a partner that he's worried about lurking, then I could see him trying to set that thought process up early before anyone has really began to lurk.

Lots of darts flying around here is making it harder for me to get my bearings. I'm off work until next Monday and between classes at school so I should be able to catch up in the meantime.

[HackerHuck]

I'm going to agree with Shanba on this. Although I'm struggling to find his train of thought for most of his posts, I think that Ecto's coming off as genuine and townish.

YTHill's vote switch doesn't make sense to me. His reasons for suspecting Mert haven't really been explained well yet and then he claims that the vote was some kind of setup for Chamber, which he so conveniently found. I could see this going either way - either Chamber 'chainsaws' or he ignores it and both cases would be scummy.

[HackerHuck]

he claims that the vote was some kind of setup for Chamber

That would be silly.

I don't remember you tunnelling like this in Geezer. What gives?

This seems a bit defencive, but I must admit that I misread your post about Chamber and thought that your vote on Mert was specifically to attract Chamber's attention.

Yos2 is poking a stick in the hive here with Ecto. I see a lot of scum reasons to continually ask these questions that Ecto has answered and make Ecto upset, the most obvious one being making Ecto out to be stubborn to garner more Ectovotes.

I don't like it. I also don't believe that I can get a Yoswagon going right now.

Probably not, but I agree with you here. I don't understand why he's been interrogating Ecto the way he has. It seems a little over the top. He started to do the same with me about my YTHill comments (even though Mert expressed similar concerns about what YTHill said). Maybe he's changing up his playstyle for this game, but I've never seen him play like this before and I think I've only played with him as town.

[HackerHuck]

Probably not, but I agree with you here. I don't understand why he's been interrogating Ecto the way he has. It seems a little over the top. He started to do the same with me about my YTHill comments (even though Mert expressed similar concerns about what YTHill said). Maybe he's changing up his playstyle for this game, but I've never seen him play like this before and I think I've only played with him as town.

You've never seen me...relentlessly question someone over behavior that appears to be scummy, while holding my vote off them until I either get some answers or until it appears I'm not going to get answers? I'd be surprised if that was true; that's one of the main methods I use to find scum.

I find the way you've been framing your posts to me pretty interesting. I expect questioning of scummy-looking people since that's generally a description of how to play mafia. I don't recall seeing your questioning as so aggressive (for lack of a better word) in some of the other games I've played with you. I would describe your questioning in previous games (we've been in together) to be more deliberate and methodical than what I'm seeing here. Your responses seem very deliberate, but the questioning seems very pointed.

I like MBL's post above.
[preview edit] - the one about Ythill. I don't like the most recent one so much.

The above post is true, and I apologize for any infraction of out-of-game talking rules.

However, I would love to see some input on the present situation from chamber, as well as from others such as Shanba, Mert (whom I'm sure is still very busy but thank you for your perseverence), HH, CTD. UT and BBM.

I'm not sure what specifically you're looking for here. If I were forced to vote on one of the 'leading' wagons (I'm guessing UT/Ecto/Chamber) it would probably be the UT wagon. I'm finding Ecto to be townish and the Chamber wagon seems just random and I'm not too keen on the two people leading it. UT also seemed random, but there's been enough movement on that wagon that it would yield some information.

[HackerHuck]

InHim and Huck, what leads you to believe Ecto is town?

I've found his responses to the attacks to be genuine. That's really enough for me right now. It seems more like he's a townie frustrated by the attention he's receiving rather than a scum who is scrambling to cover himself after being caught. I also don't think that 'having bad reads' is a good reason to lynch someone. That kind of information is useful to the town because it's going to be a dissenting voice, which helps discussion, and I just don't see it as a very good scum tactic.

That, plus I disagree with those who claim they wouldn't take the bet. Put yourself in chamber's shoes. He doesn't just have an inkling I'm scum. He's calling for people to follow him. He's suggesting that other players should be able to see why just by reading my iso. He's

convinced.

Or so he would have us believe. Until there are concequences to him. If he's so sure I'm scum, wouldn't it be tempting to lynch me D1

and

make me wear a silly avatar? If he's so sure I'm scum, wouldn't it be worth it to bet something really small, just so people can see my reaction when he calls my bluff? His quick reversal from overconfident to well-I-might-be-wrong back to overconfident seems contrived.

Really? I doubt that even the players in this game would have a much better than 50/50 success ratio in pegging scum day 1 when playing with a standard player group and in this case they're up against better talent.

Super Awesome HH-inHim-Fritzie-Glorkie Voting Bloc, ho!

Not a bad idea, actually. If I am one of three frontrunners and survive, I'll be able to get a nice start on tomorrow's VCs because I'll know two of the three alignments. Obviously I prefer one of my scumreads to me but I'm a better choice than someone like Gurgi or MBL. I'm certainly a better choice than all this small-cluster loitering.[/quote]I'm not sure exactly what you mean by this. Could you clarify it?

Skimming back, did HH just weasel into the UT camp muttering about superior information?

No.

[HackerHuck]

The back and forth with Yosarian and Ythill is not helping my reads any. I think that Ythill's attack on Yos seems like he was pulling out all the stops and it seems like it's too much. I do find Yos kind of scummy for his similar scum-hunting attacks - I don't buy the excuse he gave me - , but I don't know how Ythill busses and the whole third party exchange didn't seem like it's something that partners would do to each other. I'm happy with my vote where it's at. I'm still trying to catch up, but it will probably not be until Sunday before I can go back through and look at more of the players.

[HackerHuck]

Yes, the Ecto votes really need to move.

I took a look at the leading wagons (yes I'm still behind on reviewing everyone) and didn't find anything I really liked. I would say that out of these three (Ecto, MBL, Inhim) I'd choose InHim to avoid a lynch, but I didn't really seem much that was scummy. The worst would probably be his obsession with Mert that doesn't really have any stated substance. However, in reading Mert, there's a wagon that I would actually go along with. His hop on the Untrod wagon was looked like it was slipped in there to avoid being noticed and he even dodged the question when called on it. The way he went after Ecto by using Ecto's first newbie game seems like a huge stretch as well. I doubt there are many people that haven't changed from their very first game. I'm a little bothered that Ythill is looking at him so closely, since I'm still feeling him to be scum, but that could be bussing.

unvote: Ythill
Vote: Mert

[HackerHuck]

If no one comes around in the next half an hour, I'll consider. I don't like this idea, though.

Do you think that MBL or InHim are really better options?

[HackerHuck]

Votecount

Ectomancer (2) -- stark, Mert
inHimshallibe (3) -- Lord Gurgi, Shanba, chamber
MrBuddyLee (2) -- Glork, Fritzler
Mert (10) -- HackerHuck, Ythill, DrippingGoofball, inHimshallibe, Ectomancer, ChannelDelibird, CrashTextDummie, Cogito Ergo Sum, Yosarian2, Flameaxe

Not voting: MrBuddyLee
18 alive, 10 to lynch

-------------------------------------------

Mert - Vanilla Townie - lynched day 1

Night 1 falls, with a 72 hour deadline.

Bound to be at least one scum out of Stark, Lord Gurgi, Shanba, Chamber and Glork. That's where I'm going to start. Not sure I'll be using the scumputer though. I'm not trusting DGB if she doesn't find me even a little bit scummy
.

[HackerHuck]

That's not a very bold statement, HH. There will almost certainly be at least one scum out of {one third of the living playerlist}.
My pressing question: Why did you omit MBL from that list?


Mulling over where I want to put my vote right now, but it will probably wind up somewhere among {Yos2, Shanba, HackerHuck}.

Umm, I wasn't really trying to make a statement, but I'm kind of lazy right now, so I wanted to look at the smallest list of players that I would find scum in. I expect at least two scum on the wagon, but that's a lot more people to look at right now. I exempted MBL, because I think there is at least one scum in the list of players that were voting for alternate wagons. If you want to bet that there aren't any scum in that list of five, I'd actually take you up on that.

[HackerHuck]

Happy Birthday MBL

So I took a look at the five voting for alternate wagons at day's end - Stark, Lord Gurgi, Shanba, Chamber and Glork
Had I not found anyone scummy Glork, I would have added MBL into this group.

[STARK]

His vote on Ectomancer in post 112 seems pretty scummy to me. He's attempting to criticise Ecto for scumhunting his own way by portraying it as selfish. I don't see how it's more important for Ecto to be trying to appear pro-town versus trying to find scum. In fact, a PR probably doesn't want to appear too pro-town early in the game.
The next post (115) appears to be building a base for a mert vote (which oddly never happens). He asks Mert for reasons why he was vote switching and then asks InHim for selling points on the Mert wagon.
He harps on Ecto's scumhunting in post 129
After that, his next ten posts are one-liners asking a number of questions that don't seem to lead anywhere. Then he picks up the attack on Ecto. Although it seems Yos got a lot of the heat for the pressure on Ecto yesterday, it seems that Stark was also doing a lot of sniping.
He keeps going with just asking a few questions. It's obvious that he really wants the Ecto lynch to happen -

Trying to engage Ectomancer has produced nothing but mind-bogglingly delusional responses. I can't speak for others, but personally, I can't continue trying to get him to actually play this game. You're welcome to give it a try, but I'm content with simply removing him from this game.

He finally calls someone besides Ecto scummy in that same post. I do actually agree with his call on Ythill here.

Ythill is growing shadier with every post he makes. If I didn't have it truly set in my heart to have Ecto lynched today, I would love to see a Ythill wagon.

@Yos:

Let me get this straight... You are voting chamber while excessively "questioning" Ecto because you're pretty sure that chamber is scum but MotR on Ecto. You are posting a lot of words against Ecto because he's not providing enough content and you're trying to get a read. You're not posting very many words against chamber because he's not providing enough content. And you were considering his opinion carefully because you're trying to get a read. Right?

Too much double-talk. Liking my vote more and more.

Also, don't accuse me of conspiracies I'm not spinning.

Then only reason I called chamber a likley buddy of yours is that you're both scummy individually.

Ythill, do you understand that there is an enormous difference between seeing two players as scummy, and perceiving them as scum-partners?

[LORD GURGI]

I am uninterested in the CTD wagon. The chamber wagon's disintegration all of a sudden smacks of something sinister. As such I declare a crusade.

Unvote; Vote: Ythill

. Die noobscum die.

This really caught my eye due to the fact that Ythill was really happy riding the Chamber wagon for much of day one. I didn't look around too much to see the context of this vote, but it may have even been before Ythill first voted for Chamber. Gurgi - was that vote some kind of setup for a reaction?
I have been feeling pretty good about Gurgi until he claims that Stark is obvious town in post 244. I don't really get that, especially considering that Gurgi doesn't like the Ectowagon.

Ythill: Day one Yos wagon? You going to try for Glork next?

I'm considering moving back to chamber though, just because the inHim wagon is getting nothing from the town at the moment. No offense Shanba but I think a Yoscase is more likely to succeed than a Shanbacase. And they're both scum, so.

I'm not sure at all what this meant. It reads like you think that Shanba and Yos are scum, but you're also pushing for InHim and Chamber. I didn't quote it, but the earlier part of this post gives some good background on why he wasn't on the Mert wagon. I also find the point about Ecto/MBL to be pretty good stuff, but the cynic in me is saying that it could be his way of jumping on the wagon near the end without looking suspicious.

[CHAMBER]

Glad to see the old avatar back. I'll admit that I have a hard time with reading Chamber. I don't see anything really worth noting at first, but I got weird vibes with this post where he backs off of Ythill. He keeps the 'you're scum' label, but I can't put my finger on why it doesn't feel right.
I won't laugh at his scumlist. He's got more scum than I do, but I don't think I could argue too hard against it.
This feels pretty pro-town to me.

Do the people on MERT really expect to get 7 votes in 9 hours on someone who few people have stated any suspicion of?

I don't know why he would discourage a wagon on town Mert like that.

[GLORK]

This is pretty frightening. I've snipped some choice bits out of post 206.

Mert is protown. First use of "to be honest" is p much always protown.

Put THAT in your secret tell pipe and smoke it.
...
That, and I'm seeing nothing but Vintage Protown Fritzler. Dude needs doc protected like every night from here until eternity.

Hard to find much fault with Glork, except that I'm disagreeing with most of his reads up through his first 25 posts. I'm not a fan of the speculation about two separate scum groups. This early, it's either going to be a distraction, or it's a way to cast more suspicion on players and be able to ignore why they couldn't be scum together.
Comparison to Sly Cooper is a big stretch. In that game, he specifically said that he was playing differently and did make that known to the other players. I recall it being a very different Glork than I've seen in this game.

[SHANBA]

Post 248 starts off pretty strong, but really fades at the end. Post [url=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 5#p2649045] shows a complete 180 on a couple of fronts. He had previously praised Yos and rallied for the Ecto wagon, but now he likes InHim's pressure on Yos and he's 'not feeling' the Ectowagon. I'm also having a hard time reconciling these three comments:

This game is starting to develop nice texture.

unvote vite inhim

As a corollary, Glork's reads aren't making much sense. It's been a while since I've played with Glork, but generally his reads make lots and lots of sense to me, even if I disagree with him. So I've got the corner of my eye looking peripherically in his general direction. In fact I'd like an explanation of his townread on inhim more than anything. I guess he has more experience with the guy.

Ok, let me state it clearly: I have a very strong gut suspicion of Yosarian and Glork. I have a much stronger case against inhim. They are the only 3 I think are scum.

So he's been voting InHim, then he doesn't get Glork's reads, yet he calls for more information about Glork's townread on InHim, assuming that it will be based on meta. Why would he ask one of his top 3 suspects for a meta explanation on why another of his suspects is town?

Overall, I think that Stark is by far the scummiest due to the tunneling on Ecto, without any real efforts to scumhunt. Second place would go to Shanba. I found Gurgi and Chamber to be townish and Glork was more in the middle.

Vote: Stark

[HackerHuck]

I don't see why I can't feel someone is town and disagree with their reads. Town reads are coming off stark like communism.

I never said that you couldn't. My comment was that I don't 'get it'. Maybe you could point out some of these town reads, especially since I just put a vote on him.

[HackerHuck]

Not happy about no one liking my Stark vote and now it looks like Ether's appearance has made it somewhat more unlikely that anyone will go along with it.

Gurgi - you could look at my last post for a little more insight on scum Shanba. He doesn't seem to be aligning his actions well with his suspicions. The comments on the Mert wagon are also concerning. The scum had to be nervous when that wagon came up so fast.

[HackerHuck]

It's more about knowing when to jump off of whatever wagon they were on before and it would be compounded if it they were already wagoning one of their scum-buddies.
If they jump too soon without a reason its suspicious and if they wait too long and there's a no lynch, they'll be under suspicion for letting the no lynch happen.
That's another reason why I chose to focus on the group that wasn't voting Mert.

I forgot to

unvote: Ether

and

vote: Shanba

in my last post.

[HackerHuck]

I'm liking MBL's recent posts. It makes me feel good about my Shanba vote and still interested in Yos. It's also got me interested in those who were pushing for his lynch yesterday.

[HackerHuck]

I forgot to mention that I'll probably have limited access this weekend.

[HackerHuck]

MBL just lost a little townie point for this.

Huck, your recent analyses narrowed the scumpool to non-Mert-wagoners for the purposes of finding at least one scum in there. Your previous read was inHim = townish. So your theory seems to be that at least one scum would have stayed on the wagons of the two townies (inHim, MBL)?

Who are the person or two on the Mertwagon you find most suspicious? Do the timing of their vote-switches to Mert fit your theory?

I get the impression that this is a leading question, because my recent posts would point to Yos as scum from this perspective and I've already mentioned that I suspect him.

I did want to work off of this, because I think it's likely that one of the mafia was bussing at this stage.
The wagons at the time of Ecto's claim looked like:

MrBuddyLee (4) -- Glork, DrippingGoofball,

Fritzler

, inHimshallibe
inHimshallibe (4) -- Lord Gurgi, Shanba, ChannelDelibird, chamber

Ectomancer

(4) -- stark, Cogito Ergo Sum, Mert, Yosarian2
Ythill (1) -- HackerHuck
ChannelDelibird (1) -- Flameaxe

Mert

(1) -- Ythill
DrippingGoofball (1) -- CrashTextDummie
Yosarian2 (1) --

Ectomancer

Of my D1 suspects - YTHill and Yos, both were voting town and I know that the only people on their wagons are town.
My first suspect today - Stark/Ether - was on the town wagon of Ectomancer.
I've been leaning town on both InHim and MBL - obviously since I pushed for Mert over them - so I'm not looking at those wagons for bussing. That's where I find my current votegetter - Shanba
That leaves CTD/DGB and Flameaxe/CDB as possible scumpairs. I'll do some research in this area, but it may not be complete until Monday.

[HackerHuck]

Flameaxe/Porochaz:

Dear inHimshallibe,

I happen to quite like both my CES scumpoints and my Tripod vote. Would you please be so kind as to elaborate on why you find them disagreeable.

Kind regards,
CTD

How is my shameless bandwagonning different from anyone else's? My "deliberation" was, surprise surprise, just a joke. Fr rls, yo. Your vote is ridiculous (moreso than mine!).

Agreeing with CTD here, your vote didn't feel like shameless bandwagoning to me. The fact that you're torn between two players doesn't exactly shout out joke vote.

Vote: Untrod

. Best place for my vote so far. Not really seeing this CTD wagon.

Here's the vote on Tripod. It actually looks like a little buddying with CTD here. It also looks like InHim brought that up too.
From his post 317, this is the list of people who are scummy.
CES - Leaning slightly scum
Untrod Tripod/CDB - Still feeling scum
Hacker Huck - Leaning slightly scum

Hi guys. Ive read the thread and everything. Think

vote ythill

, his actions yesterday started well, but as soon as people started agreeing with him, he got weird.

He replaces into the game and for his first vote, 'got weird' is his reasoning?

Other news, I havent seen the reason to vote CDB beyond a lurker vote. Ill reread him but as I dont see the point now, I think this will be a wagon Ill miss.

Only mention of CDB is here.



Untrod/CDB:
This post from UT would have made me think that he's not a buddy with Flameaxe, but he ignores Flameaxe even after Flameaxe keeps harping on this point.

Agreeing with CTD here, your vote didn't feel like shameless bandwagoning to me. The fact that you're torn between two players doesn't exactly shout out joke vote.

ITT: we learn to put "/sarcasm" after every early-game joke vote, because otherwise people will pretend REALLY REALLY SUPER HARD that you weren't joking when you obviously were.

I don't really get much out of CDB. He pretty much ignores the Flameaxe slot in his initial post and there's no mention of him afterward.

Flameaxe, Glork, CES, Fritzler, chamber

Rereading these guys, but didn't get much from any of them first time through and would like to hear more from all of them.

I see a possibility that Flameaxe was bussing Untrod early on, but it's probably not something I would pick up on unless I was looking for it like I was here.



On the other hand, it did make me wonder what was going on with the UT (and now CDB) wagons. I didn't really see a whole lot of scummy behaviour out of either of them - especially UT. I saw his post as being a sort of jokey random vote. I don't have a big problem with the wagon since it was a day one runup that often happens, but I'm not sure why it's still got legs. If it's just the scumputer, I'll pass, because I'm not sold on its effectiveness this early in the game.

I'll work up the DGB/CTD pairing next.

[HackerHuck]

IH/DGB:
IH was the one that voted for CTD and it was part of a quick wagon that oddly enough gained momentum after UT voted for him. If you start on page 3, you'll see the quick progression. I'm not sure that this really builds any town cred, so I'm don't see that it makes sense to bus here.

Hello, new people! And to think I was just about to open betting on whether IH would get replaced before D1 is over...

DGB:
How much of a coincidence is it that your scumlist is almost identical to mine? And why does part of it disagree with Theorem 1?

This post pretty much clears my mind of any thoughts that these two were bussing, so I'm not going to waste everyone's time posting all of the other stuff I put together. Time to bark up another tree.


Based on my last post, I'd consider moving to Porochaz, but I'm happier with my vote on Shanba. I'm not in favor of the CDB wagon, since it just looks like a lurker-lynch at this point.

[HackerHuck]

...prefacing his read of Glork with "this is pretty frightening and here are some choice bits from his post X" and then following it up with "There's not too much to fault Glork on" is pretty ridiculous. Like, it makes zero sense at all. Unless he started rewriting the Glork section halfway through - which would explain the zero elaboration on why those "choice bits" were interesting (cause really, I'm not seeing it). In which case, he's scum. I'm willing to entertain the notion that I've misread him here, but only impatiently whilst tapping my foot and gesturing to it that it might a good idea to leave now.

Look back at what I quoted. He specifically called both Mert and Fritzler protown and said that Fritzler needed doc protecting for the rest of the game. His accuracy in that post was kind of frightening for so early in the game.

Oh, which reminds me. Stark/ether is town and ETHER NEEDS TO POST MORE. Seriously, she was drawing epic reactions from people.

Can you maybe elaborate on why you think that slot is so town? Also wondering why out of all the town reads you have, Gurgi and Ether are the only two you actually mention by name.

[HackerHuck]

You almost hammered someone who you think is town?

gigantic FOS: inHim

Why isn't this vote-worthy?

Considering you find the Yos/InHim interactions so noteworthy, I would expect you to give that comment more weight. I was leaning town on InHim yesterday and it's making me second guess my choice yesterday.

[HackerHuck]

I'm going to have limited access for the next five or six days, but I should be able to keep up on reading during that time.

[HackerHuck]

That was way too much activity for two days.

I've skimmed through the last four pages, but I'll need to go back through some things in more detail. I'm not happy with the way the Yosarian wagon dissipated. It seemed that he got emotional and a number of people took that as a town tell. That seems fishy to me, but more related to the alignment of those on his wagon, not necessarily Yos'.

I would have jumped on the InHim wagon that MBL is pushing, but his post was way over the top. I'm going to do a little rereading myself, but I also want to see what MBL has to say about it from a 'InHim is town' perspective.

I'm not going to press for it, but I don't really see a problem with calling for a claim at L-2 in a game this size. There have been enough simul-posts to make that an unintended lynch a real possibility.

[HackerHuck]

It bothers me a little that some of the people who've previously found inHim townish are pretty quiet. CTD, could really use your insight here. Huck, you're putting it all back on me, and that's scummy--what's your independent read?

That's not an accurate representation of my posting. I said that I found his turnabout on Yos scummy. I liked your post viewing InHim as scum, but it seemed like you were trying so hard to sell it that it made me gunshy about placing a vote on him. I wanted to see what your view was looking at InHim as town so I could better interpret the barrage you sent at him before. I had an early gut-read of InHim as scum, but looking through his day 1 posts, I felt he was more likely town. I think there was only one real post that caused me a little concern.

Huck, I see you there, help an inHim out.

I'm at work, so I'm logged in most of the day, but not always 'there'. I was trying to read your posts while on a conference call and it wasn't working out too well.

I didn't like the nurse claim and I don't like the gambit it was meant to accomplish. I'm also concerned about why yos hasn't hammered you.

Since you've said that you crumbed your role and it looks like you're still around. How about actually claiming? I have a hunch about what it is and if I'm right, than you've probably cleared someone and that info should be made public before you die.

[HackerHuck]

Vote: InHim

None of this is making any sense to me from a town perspective. I'm also wondering why no one else is very concerned that he lied about his claim only to get Yos to clarify something about his pressure on Ecto. I don't see the value in that.

[HackerHuck]

I had an early gut-read of InHim as scum, but looking through his day 1 posts, I felt he was more likely town.

Was there a reason you never mentioned your early gut read of inHim as scum? You mentioned Ythill, Yos, UT as varying degrees of slightly scummy over that period of time, and mentioned slight town/nullreads on 2-3 others. I don't see anything from you on inHim in November or pre-Ectoclaim besides agreement on an inHim read of Yos.

I never mentioned it because it was a gut-read and it was very early on. That gut read made me want to look through his posts and that's why I felt strongly enough about him as town to not vote for him yesterday.

Huck, don't do this to me. What's the scum motivation?

Scum motivation for fake-claiming? Isn't it pretty obvious? I don't see how you can go to all the trouble to set up the fake claim in the hopes of drawing a specific answer out of Yos. More importantly, if you were town it would make more sense to not go back on the fake claim so that the scum would target you at night instead of looking for another power role.

[HackerHuck]

I'm going to echo inHim and say what's the scum motivation? inHim retracted his Nurse-claim almost immediately, before anybody had really had a chance to evaluate it. The scum motivation behind a fake-claim would be to get votes off of him, which is clearly NOT what inHim was going for.

He retracted his claim only after Yos badgered him pretty hard about how bad of a claim it was. At that point, it was pretty obvious that it would not have the intended benefit of saving him from a lynch, so he went for the next best thing. Again, I think the pro-town response to Yos' pressure would have been to not back off the claim. If he's still lynched and flips town, then he still made his point that Yos might not be scum due to his reactions to Ecto.

InHim - Are you trying to say I'm scum with Gurgi and Porochaz?

[HackerHuck]

Whatever happened to LAV (Lynch All Vanillas)?

Why are you so opposed to the inHim wagon?

Why would it be scummy? why would it be anti-town?

Already explained this. You are enticing a lynch while avoiding inclusion in the voting record.

And there's nothing wrong with having these two vanilla claims with a vig in the game.

How does having a vig help keep the scum from looking for power roles? You also seem to be talking about the vig an awful lot.

[HackerHuck]

EBWOP: I suppose (since someone is likely to nitpick) that it's worth noting that MBL removed his vote earlier, but it is still not-on-anybody as we approach deadline.

What may be more important is that Ythill is calling Yos' lack of voting trail scummy while not being so concerned about MBL's.

I realise that I was responsible for starting the late-day Mert wagon, I don't want a similar thing to happen today. I think it's important to get the real support/opposition registered against the InHim lynch so that his flip will have some meaning. I know it's the holiday season, but I don't really understand why this group of players is getting so timid around deadline.

Preview edit:
Gurgi - It's pretty obvious that she's protecting him, but why does that make you think that they're both scum? Do you really see DGB being that transparent?

[HackerHuck]

I think Ether's upset that I was the only person who had Stark in their scum list. Hopefully all this attention will help clear my name.

That last was directed at Glork. Just in case anyone else is too dumb...

Roleclaim: vigilante

Now that the cat's out of the bag, why did you drop loaf sized crumbs yesterday and seem to be directing them at me?

Why would it be scummy? why would it be anti-town?

Already explained this. You are enticing a lynch while avoiding inclusion in the voting record.

And there's nothing wrong with having these two vanilla claims with a vig in the game.

How does having a vig help keep the scum from looking for power roles? You also seem to be talking about the vig an awful lot.

@Huck:

I think you're misreading DGB. And me.

@Gurgi:

I'll be around with a vote if needed.

Follow-up question - why did you then telegraph your target when you thought I might be scum?

...Is it just me, or is Huck flying further under the radar than usual?

[HackerHuck]

Hello again, Huck.

Um, Hi?

YTHill - The comment about me confusing your role with DGB seemed a bit too obvious. I'm also with Glork on your VCA. I don't really understand how you're coming to some of those conclusions based on the vote counts you posted. Could you pull back the curtain a bit?

[HackerHuck]

Why aren't you voting HackerHuck?

Is this directed at me or someone who you think should be voting for me?

[HackerHuck]

Hey, Gurgi.

You should help me lynch HackerHuck. He's just logged out and avoided yet another possible confrontation with me.

what?


Quick look at end of day votes. We know Yos and InHim were town. Is it possible that Gurgi no one was voting scum at the end of the day?

Final Votecount

Yosarian2

(4) -- Glork, CrashTextDummie,

Ythill

,

inHimshallibe

inHimshallibe

(8) -- ChannelDelibird, Lord Gurgi, Cogito Ergo Sum, chamber,

HackerHuck

,

Yosarian2

, Porochaz, MrBuddyLee
Lord Gurgi (1) --

DrippingGoofball

Not voting: Ether, Shanba

Obviously green is confirmed town for all of you and I'm using blue to note the two people I know aren't mafia. I really doubt Ythill is SK, but I don't see any possible way that he's mafia.
Again, I'm lazy and I'm sure that there's at least one scum that didn't vote for a lynch. That means I'll look at the folks not on the InHim wagon:
Glork, CTD, Ether, and Shanba. Unlike D1, the non-voters make up half of the people not on the wagon, so I feel that they should be included. If we line this up with my last 'not lynching' list, we see Glork, Ether, and Shanba. CTD is the new member to this group and none of the others - Gurgi or Chamber have flipped. MBL was not on the lynch D1, but I still feel he's probably town.

So, I see one scum in this group:
Stark, Lord Gurgi, Shanba, Chamber and Glork
and one scum in this group:
Glork, CTD, Ether, and Shanba

Given the overlap, odds are that we have one scum that avoided both lynches. I still like Ether and Shanba from yesterday, but I'll still take a look through that whole group.
I don't see any Ether vote getting any traction without finding new dirt.

Vote: Shanba

[HackerHuck]

Ether - before you accuse me of dodging you...
I am - I'll be away for a couple of hours, but I'm not going to bother logging out.

[HackerHuck]

So a number of things managed to derail me over the weekend, but I did get a chance to look through Ether's posts as well as reread some of Shanba's.

Ether has five pages of not much to mention. A lot of chatty posts, with just a few that bring in a lot of content. The most I got were a few lists of people she thought were scum, but reading it all makes her vote on me seem even more bizarre. I didn't see anything in my Ether read to change my mind on what I saw in Stark, but I'm also not seeing much scumminess short of her content to fluff ratio. Part of the problem in reading people in iso is stuff like this.

Oh, which reminds me. Stark/ether is town and ETHER NEEDS TO POST MORE. Seriously, she was drawing epic reactions from people.

Shanba - I don't recall seeing any epic reactions in real-time. Are there a couple of things that you could point to? Since Shanba's not as active as you Ether, maybe you could point out some useful tidbits you've gleaned from reactions to your posting.

I've been getting a feeling that Ether in this game is like Chamber - no cases. That reminded me that I really have no read on Chamber right now even after all of Yos' harping on him over the last two days. For those who play often with Chamber, how do you get reads on him?

CDB - I just want to correct that I was only mentioning Glork's premonitions as an aside. They really had no bearing on why I felt he was not scummy.

[HackerHuck]

I've read through your posts a few times already and even now you're making very little sense to me. If you're town, it shouldn't be this hard.

[HackerHuck]

Why the early claim Glork? I saw what you said, but we just started day and Ythill wasn't necessarily riding you that hard.

CES - why does Glork Cop = Shanba likely town?

[HackerHuck]

In rereading Glork's ISO, I was bothered by his decision to investigate me since he had spent most of Day2 focusing on Shanba and Yos as scum.
If you look at the trail from 141-143 in his ISO, there is some evidence of crumbing followed by his statement that I'm not the play for today. I can also see how Glork was crumbing town results on MBL.

I guess my concern with his claim still centers around three things:
1- Why the switch from one of Yos/Shanba to me?
2- Why the lack of concern around sanity
3- The early claim based on very little pressure

Ether - do you think that 4 scums is the only option balance-wise with a vig and two sane cops?

[HackerHuck]

Ether - do you think that 4 scums is the only option balance-wise with a vig and two sane cops?

I do not think that Patrick would, under any circumstances, put any number other than 4 scum into an 18-player game. (Also, a one-shot cop is not a full-blown cop in any way; stop pretending it is.)

Stop trying to misrepresent me. My point is that with your assumption set doesn't seem that reasonable. I would think that with four scum, there needs to be something to counterbalance the investigation abilities. Basically I think that what CES just said seems more likely.


...which leads me back to this post. Given the assumption set one has to make here, I would think the pro-town view would be to use the list of five and assess the validity of your assumptions. Instead, you take a soft stand on seeing whether we should just try to lynch someone in that group.

Town, assuming they're not fakeclaiming and not a godfather and Glork is a sane cop
Ythill
Crash
Shanba
Glork
MBL
HackerHuck

Town because duh:
Ether

That's seven people(!). If they're all town, then that puts exactly one townie in {chamber, ChannelDelibird, Cogito Ergo Sum, Lord Gurgi, Porochaz}.

Is that plausible? I'm not saying that rhetorically; I'm just wondering if we can write off one or two people of those people from their associations with each other and go in for the kill.

I'll ask you this. Is it likely that four of the people in that list are scum?


On the flip-side, if you're right in that CTD and Glork are both truthful and sane then I'd say that your behaviour is extremely inconsistent with scum.

[HackerHuck]

MBL is correct here.

That post was a critique of HackerHuck's failure to provide sound analysis

, not an attempt to sluff suspicion onto MBL.

I have a bone to pick with that statement. I don't see my intentional omission of MBL as a flaw in my analysis. I think you were more than a little peeved that the sample I picked had you in it and was a little smaller than you found comfortable.

I see that you didn't really answer the big question about why the sudden shift away from Shanba/Yos toward me. I know what your quote was referencing, but it still seems like a big leap to switch from 'we must lynch/vig yos/shanba'

[HackerHuck]

I don't think that Glork is the obvious play for today. Although he has been slow to address the concerns around his claim, we're probably looking at three other people who are scum. I also don't see what the scum motivation for making that claim would be. He wasn't under any serious lynch threat and he didn't know that Ythill ran out of shots. So scum were in a pretty good position at that point. I don't really see him taking the risk of the claim when a mislynch and a bad vig would mostly put the game away for them. I would also expect a fake-claim to have a guilty in there to improve the chances of getting a mislynch. Besides, the cop issue should be sorted out on its own within the next couple of days. With the certainty of sanity (although GF could be an issue), we'll put ourselves in a pretty good place to as long as we avoid lynching the claimants and those claimed as investigation targets.

I'm up for a Porochaz lynch now. Looking back at his scum-hunting, it seems that he had made his decisions prior to actually using that point system (much like he accused DGB of doing). If you take away Ythill due to the claim, his top suspect CES had a -10 and Glork was at a -7. Gurgi and I were null reads (-4.5, -5) and DGB was town at a -1. I'm not sure where the line was drawn, but it looks like it was fitted to his suspect list.

I was also thinking that a CES/Porochaz scumpair is a possibility. They've managed to distance themselves pretty well in voting behaviour and CES has maybe mentioned him once all game.

Vote: Porochaz

[HackerHuck]

I'm having serious issues with HackerHuck's logic.

I don't think that Glork is the obvious play for today. Although he has been slow to address the concerns around his claim, we're probably looking at three other people who are scum.

First of all, you haven't acknowledged in the slightest so far the fact that he has been counterclaimed. Secondly, what you're saying here basically is "even if Glork is counterclaimed scum, I'd rather take a stab at one of his buddies".

With the certainty of sanity (although GF could be an issue), we'll put ourselves in a pretty good place to as long as we avoid lynching the claimants and those claimed as investigation targets.

And then you go and propose process of elimination. How likely do you find the possibility that scum-Glork would claim innocents on two townies?

No, that's not at all what I'm saying. First, I've acknowledged that he's been 'counterclaimed'. I believe your claim over his, but I'm not certain that your one-shot ability means that he cannot be a full cop. I think Ythill even made a point later that implies that the inclusion of both roles actually weakens them both. I'm also going from the perspective that even if scum, Glork has correctly called two people as innocents. I know I am, and I've felt that MBL is as well.

I also don't see what the scum motivation for making that claim would be. He wasn't under any serious lynch threat and he didn't know that Ythill ran out of shots.

He clearly felt himself under threat of being vigged. This argument makes zero sense. That he didn't know that Ythill ran out of shots is

precisely

why he'd feel inclined to claim.

We were still early in the day and nowhere near a lynch, yet he claimed before even trying to convince Ythill of his innocence.

I don't really see him taking the risk of the claim when a mislynch and a bad vig would mostly put the game away for them.

Apart from the fact that a mislynch and a bad vig won't put the game away for scum, that would be added incentive to claim. Note the necessity of a bad vig for this to work out.

I would also expect a fake-claim to have a guilty in there to improve the chances of getting a mislynch.

It would have also improved his chances of getting vigged in the face.

He knows who the vig is and Ythill has not been shy about who he suspects. If I were scum Glork, I'd wait until we get closer to lynch before I make that kind of a fakeclaim.

Besides, the cop issue should be sorted out on its own within the next couple of days.

Unless we don't have a couple of days. If we lynch wrong today, we are in lylo.

This just proves my point about why the scum are close enough to a win that the gamble doesn't make much sense.


I was sitting on this for a while and just saw all of the posts in between. I'll comment on those tonight when I get a chance.

[HackerHuck]

We lynch Glork today and he comes up town:
We are in lylo, but we have a number of confirmed innocents to work with.

Not really. I don't think anyone had MBL on their shortlist of scum, so it really only gains the town one innocent in me. That's also not any kind of guarantee, because there could be a GF in the mix that would prevent anyone from truly being confirmed by Glork's death as a townie. We're still essentially left with the same list of suspects to go after.

Even if I go back to my beginning of the day search for suspects - looking at those not on the Inhim lynch, I'm not seeing Glork as the best option. That set of players was Glork, Shanba, CTD, Ythill and Ether. If I cross off Ythill and CTD because their claims make sense, that leaves me with Glork, Shanba, and Ether. Based on play, I'd pick Shanba (as possible GF) or Ether over Glork. The other folks - CDB, Gurgi, Chamber, Porochaz, and CES are probably the place to start since there are no investigation results to cloud the mind. I'd like to hear some more from them as well.

[HackerHuck]

@Huck:

The point raised earlier was that if Glork and Ether are both town, all of the scum were on inHim. You obviously get how strange that would be, but rather than second-guess your assumptions, you retreat literally into a GF theory?

That's not what was happening. I said that ignoring claims and results, I would not put Glork as the most suspicious in that group. I went down that route because my assumption set doesn't really make a lot of sense in evaluating that group in the context of one of them being scum. Anyway, it seems like there are a number of possibilities that surround that grouping and to eliminate the noise, I think it's appropriate to ignore the claims if you want to look at that group. I don't see that the Shanba/Glork/Ether group has more than one scum in it, so it's better to look outside of that group of players for who is likely scum.

[HackerHuck]

If MBL is scum, I'll nominate him for a scummy. I'm not sure exactly what it would be for, but I cannot fathom him as anything but town in this game.

[HackerHuck]

For the record: the entire point of a no lynch was an extra result for the case where glork is town. Essentially, CES is 100% right here.

Besides, we're evens. We'll have to do it at some point.

Wait, you're voting for Porochaz. I can see why CES might see it as an alternative to a Glork mislynch, but why aren't you looking at if from the Lynch Porochaz or No-lynch perspective? I'd prefer a Porochaz lynch, but I'd also prefer a no-lynch over lynching Glork right now.

I'm also not sure how Ythill came up with me as a partner with Porochaz and Glork.

[HackerHuck]

I guess that puts me up for claim.

I'm vanilla.

Looking at the people who have indicated that Glork made a scum-slip, he's well within lynch range right now.

Chamber - thoughts on Porochaz?

Ythill - why are you so opposed to the thought of a GF? It's not like Shanba's been a beacon of towniness this game.

[HackerHuck]

This is why I really hate massclaim. It totally drags down the game and ends up being mostly useless.

[HackerHuck]

I'm vanilla. Also, grumpy.

Huck, why's Shanba scum, and conversely, why's MBL town?

For starters, I'm not saying that Shanba is scum. I totally agree with the point that Ythill made, which was why I moved my vote from him to Porochaz. I was simply asking Ythill why he kept slapping down any mention of GF when talking about the results we've been given.

I'm going to give you the fluff version of why MBL is town now, because I'm too tired right now to go back through the thread and pluck examples. I have liked his scum-hunting so far and I feel that he has picked up on some good points. I'd also say that I recall scum MBL being a little more directive in leading the town down a path without making it look like he was really driving the wagon. His lack of voting has concerned me a little bit, but I don't feel like he's really been driving any wagons yet.

[HackerHuck]

By weirded out, I mean that Hackerhuck's probing about me reads scummy.

What? I've been pretty clear that I've suspected you for a good part of the game.

I can't see how someone could assume both Glork and CTD have cop abilities and then write-off a GF as unlikely. It's one of the simplest ways to balance out those roles; however, I can see why someone would choose not to lynch Shanba today because it's less likely that there is a godfather

and

it's Shanba.

[HackerHuck]

This

For starters, I'm not saying that Shanba is scum.

is what bugged me. Why are you backing off? I know people think I'm scummy (though I'm not sure entirely why, beyond "OMG GLORK IS BUSSING HIM"/"HE'S LURKING"/"HE MADE SOME POSTS AND SAID HE WAS SLEEP DEPRIVED, OMG"), and I accept that you might want to try and convince him to consider me as a scum suspect - but in that case, why then back off? It's not like you're gonna get any useful reactions from the

uncounterclaimed vig

. It looks like more groundwork being laid to accuse me of being GF later on. Call me paranoid, but you're the third person to do something like that.

I'm backing off because CTD has a not-guilty result on you. I was trying to remind Ythill that even though CTD is an almost confirmed cop, that doesn't mean you are above suspicion. It also means that we cannot assume four scum out of the remaining pool even if everyone thinks that Glork is town. I'm also trying to remind Ythill of that fact, because his words tend to carry more weight as an

uncounterclaimed vig

.

[HackerHuck]

I will say that Glork's lack of effort today has whittled away most of my support for him.

[HackerHuck]

Reactions to Glork Claim (prior to CTD claim):
Ether unvotes HH, no overt concerns about the claim.
CES supports claim (also Shanba's innocence) with this quote

P.S. signs point to Glrok's cop claim being truthful, which reduces the chance of Shanba being scum, but with the innocent on HH, I think I'll just sheep Glrok for now.

MBL asks about sanity - this post gives the appearance that MBL is worried about his own safety.
HH asks why the early claim.

CTD counters with his one-shot cop ability.
Ether believes both, but now mentions sanity. (I still don't like the thought process she has in 2063 - see my 2102)
Ythill makes a decent observation about the claim of MBL investigation.
CES comments about Glork possibly bussing Shanba. He votes Glork, but doesn't comment about the implication of the Shanba innocent result coupled his suspicion now that Glork is scum. I'd like to see this explored a little further by him.
Ythill makes scumteam prediction (Glork, MBL, CES, Ether - I only mention this as a reminder to myself to look at their interactions)
MBL wants to form a coalition of HH, MBL, Ythill
Ether starts to doubt sanity of Glrok (I don't see this as very telling of her alignment, because she's been tunneling on me)
MBL's 2086 defends the cop claim with some decent evidence (I looked back at Glork around this time and came to the same conclusion)
Porochaz's omission of any real Glork comments until his third post back and that is very soft on details. That doesn't look good to me.
I just noticed Shanba's thoughts about me being a potential godfather. Interesting to compare to his recent criticism of me thinking the same about him. While a using a GF to counter a one-shot cop seems unlikely, I think it will need to be revisited if we've got Shanba alive in endgame.
Chamber expresses some doubt, but not enough to vote for Glork. He also reminds us that Shanba could be a GF. I'm not sure what to make of this statement, so I'm going to consider it a null until we get some more flips.
Gurgi comes off as uninterested in the whole process. I find him to be one the scummiest actors in the whole situation due to his lack of input.


Post Glork's no-lynch 'slip'
CES, Shanba, Ythill were all quick to point it out. I don't like MBL's reaction. He acknowledges it with 'LOL', but is then vague on whether he thinks it is a slip or not. In he finally claims that Glork is probably a good lynch, with a rather oddly argued scumteam.
Gurgi finally chimes in with a vote on Glork - that looks the fishiest out of the reactions to the slip.

Early critics of Glork:
CES

Ythill

CTD

CDB
Porochaz

I would be really surprised to see everyone here flip town. CES' reactions seemed more genuine, based on the way he reversed himself after one of MBL's posts as well as his 'normal' researched revote (post 2172). I'm stuck on Porochaz as scum although I did see a post from him that seemed town-like. CDB is also worth more attention and CTD is about as confirmed as you can get. He claimed a limited role to counter and that was before Ythill mentioned that he was a two-shot.

Vote: Porochaz

BTW - I'm starting to get weird feelings about MBL's general reluctance to vote.

[HackerHuck]

Glork called me out for excluding MBL from my list of surviving D1 lynch avoiders (

stark

Ether, Lord Gurgi,

Shanba

, chamber,

Glork

). I see this as a two-fold reaction. First, he's trying to discredit me and make me look scummy for leaving someone out. That would give him potentially two targets for the price of one (me and MBL). That of course assumes that we're both town (which I believe).

Let's assume for a minute that I'm wrong and that MBL is scum. What benefit does Glork get from drawing more attention to his scum-partner. I only see it working out in the scums' interests if he's pretty confident that MBL is going to be lynched and that he can taint me for supporting MBL-scum. It doesn't make sense to draw attention toward MBL-scum in this situation when he made another point to try and discredit my choice to focus on those five. Statistically speaking, even assuming MBL scum and Glork as the only scum in those five, I would have been better off looking at the 9 survivors that lynched Mert. I obviously exclude myself from those nine, so that's trying to find 2 scum in 8 people versus 1 in 5.

My analysis on those five ranked them scum to town like this -

stark

Ether,

Shanba

,

Glork

, Lord Gurgi, chamber

Glorks first few posts afterward made no mention of my conclusions, rather he scolds Shanba for not doing what I did. I see that comment as a slight bit of buddying meant to get me to move to my second highest suspect. That further discounts the possibility of Shanba GF, since that's too subtle to be a bussing move.

That all seems to indicate that I was on the right path and that there's still another scum in the remaining group of Ether, Chamber and Gurgi.

[HackerHuck]

I don't really like how when Glork claimed and CTD countered, she tried to fit everything into her view on Glork instead of following the evidence. Glork HAD to be town, so Huck was no longer a top suspect, so Porochaz became her top suspect, and she suddenly became willing to lynch me, who she'd recently found townish.

Just noticed this piece of your quote and want some clarification from Ether. Why was it that you felt I was likely town and MBL was likely scum when Glork supposedly had innocent results on both of us?

[HackerHuck]

Sorry for the triple post, but that question is directed at Ether if it isn't obvious from the context.

[HackerHuck]

I didn't. I thought you were both likely scum, especially you. (That was the first time my attention had really been drawn to MBL, I believe. Can't remember if anything had been bugging me strongly before then.) But Ythill had just made a post indicating that he thought Glork and MBL was scum together. As I said at the time, MBL was a compromise I was prepared to make.

Yet you unvoted me after Glork claimed :/ Do you really think that Glork would claim two of his buddies as innocents?

Hackerhuck at this point could be reading a different game to me for all his reads make any sense. Like, of the uncleareds the people I would be least likely to want to lynch are Ether, Gurgi and MBL, followed at a distance by chamber. Making the only read we agree on being MBL. That doesn't inspire me with confidence - I expect to at least be able to feel where a townie is coming from. Frankly I just want him dead at this point. He's likely scum. I can kinda see how one would see ether/chamber/gurgi as scummy, but if you're nitpicking hard enough to see that shit why would you not be all over the likes of prozac and cdb? I guess one scum in that group is not an earth shattering conclusion, but it's a head scratching one. His reasons are there, but a little off. Like, he didn't mention the other people at all in that thought process, and I don't see why he thinks the Mert wagon would necessarily split votes or anything. Eh. I'm not a huuuge fan of votecount analysis anyway.

Please pay more attention to what I said. That wasn't a vote-count analysis, rather a review of Glork's behaviour toward me early in Day 2. He made a comment that I hadn't considered from a scum perspective yet, so I explored it. In case you haven't noticed, I'm the likely lynch today and there isn't really anything I can defend myself against. I'm trying to get new ideas out there so that people have some things to look at after I flip.

[HackerHuck]

Statistically speaking, even assuming MBL scum and Glork as the only scum in those five, I would have been better off looking at the 9 survivors that lynched Mert. I obviously exclude myself from those nine, so that's trying to find 2 scum in 8 people versus 1 in 5.

It's this bit I don't get.

I'm basically trying to get at why Glork would challenge my position by stating that I should include MBL in my pool of suspects. Now that I think about the bit you quoted, it would be in his best interest to point me at the 8 people (not including myself) who were on the Mert lynch if there were only two scum in that group. That might explain why he dropped the subject after I posted my suspects with him in the third slot.

OK, I know people don't like this, but here are the end of day vote counts - colourized to note

scum

/

town

/

semi-confirmed

Day 1

Ectomancer

(2) --

stark

Ether,

Mert

inHimshallibe

(3) -- Lord Gurgi,

Shanba

, chamber
MrBuddyLee (2) --

Glork

,

Fritzler

Mert

(10) --

HackerHuck

,

Ythill

,

DrippingGoofball

,

inHimshallibe

,

Ectomancer

, ChannelDelibird,

CrashTextDummie

, Cogito Ergo Sum,

Yosarian2

,

Flameaxe

Porochaz
Not voting: MrBuddyLee

Day 2

Yosarian2

(4) --

Glork

,

CrashTextDummie

,

Ythill

,

inHimshallibe

inHimshallibe

(8) -- ChannelDelibird, Lord Gurgi, Cogito Ergo Sum, chamber,

HackerHuck

,

Yosarian2

, Porochaz, MrBuddyLee
Lord Gurgi (1) --

DrippingGoofball

Not voting: Ether,

Shanba

Day 3
Porochaz (4) --

Shanba

, Ether,

HackerHuck

, chamber

Glork

(7) --

CrashTextDummie

, ChannelDelibird, Porochaz, Cogito Ergo Sum, Lord Gurgi, MrBuddyLee,

Ythill

Cogito Ergo Sum (1) --

Glork

Not voting: Nobody

Worthy of noting:
Ether and Shanba have yet to be in on a lynch.
Odd voting block of CDB, CES, Porochaz appeared on all three lynches. Glork lynch had three votes in succession, but the other two lynches were all spaced apart. Although the spacing seems right - some distance on the townies, but not on the mafiate, I'd have a hard time believing that they would be voting together every time.
Aside from the obvious Glork lynch, I'd expect that the scum would be bussing somewhere here. Day 1 EOD bussing could only be Glork on MBL. Day 2 has no possible EOD bussing options. Day 3 is more interesting. Glork knew he was toast, so I don't put any weight into his vote on CES. That only leaves either Chamber or Ether on Porochaz, besides the scum who were probably bussing Glork.
No scum flips yet on anyone who voted for Mert or InHim. My unknowns on these wagons are:
Mert - CDB, CES, Porochaz
InHim - CDB, Gurgi, CES, Chamber, Porochaz, MBL
Glork - CDB, Porochaz, CES, Gurgi, MBL

Going back to what I said earlier, I'm now at odds with myself. I don't see why Glork wouldn't try to point me toward everyone on the Mert lynch, unless there were three mafia in that group. That would mean the remaining scum are CDB, CES, and Porochaz, who happened to vote as a bloc on all three lynches. I see it less likely that those three are a team than Glork was trying to keep me from looking at the Mertwagon.

two out of:
CDB, CES, Porochaz, (you others would throw me into this group)
one out of
Gurgi, Chamber, Ether, (maybe MBL, but not likely)

Scummiest to towniest:
Porochaz
Ether
CDB
Gurgi
CES
Chamber
MBL
Shanba
CTD
Huck

[HackerHuck]

Minor point but remember how Flameaxe was pushed onto that wagon at deadline? VCA are good and all, but considering day 1's wagon was plucked out of thin air and the ONLY reason BBM voted was to not have a no lynch at deadline, it kind of renders it useless.

You are correct, but it in no way renders the vote count useless. If anything it weakens the argument I made that it's unlikely you, CDB and CES are the last three scum. As scum, Flameaxe would be trying to avoid hammering if two teammates were already on the wagon.

I thought I should go back to the end of day 1 to see how things progressed.

Votecount

Ectomancer

(4) -- stark, Cogito Ergo Sum,

Mert

,

Yosarian2

Ythill

(1) --

HackerHuck

ChannelDelibird (1) -- Flameaxe

inHimshallibe

(4) -- Lord Gurgi,

Shanba

, ChannelDelibird, chamber

Mert

(1) --

Ythill

DrippingGoofball

(1) --

CrashTextDummie

MrBuddyLee (4) --

Glork

,

DrippingGoofball

, Fritzler,

inHimshallibe

Yosarian2

(1) --

Ectomancer

Not voting: MrBuddyLee
18 alive, 10 to lynch

This was 29 hours before deadline. The leading wagons were town, town, and MBL. Ecto had claimed doc shortly before this votecount.
Flameaxe pulled his vote within 30 minutes of this votecount also asking for replacement. A couple of votes fell off of Ecto, I voted Mert in post #657 and CES switched to InHim in post #676, which put those leading wagons at:

inHimshallibe

(5)
MrBuddyLee (4)

Ectomancer

(2)

Mert

(2)

within the next 5 posts,

DrippingGoofball

and

InHim

jumped off of MBL and voted for Mert, along with

Ectomancer

who had been voting for Yos. The new wagons were...

inHimshallibe

(5)
MrBuddyLee (2)

Ectomancer

(2)

Mert

(5)

Two townies became the front-runners for the lynch, without any scum assistance. In fact, Mert had only townies voting for him at the time. From that point we were off to the races, adding four more votes by the end of that page, which put Mert at L-1.
The next page and a half is mostly about Flameaxe (and Chamber) refusing to hammer. Chamber's refusal definitely seems more sincere as he was willing to go ahead with a no-lynch. There was no other lynch alternative, so it almost seems like Flameaxe may have been playing up how much he didn't want to lynch Mert and was being forced into it. If there are already two scum on Mert's wagon, scum would want to stall and avoid being on there if at all possible.
I didn't remember how close that MBL was to hammering as well. If Flameaxe had waited another minute, I bet he and MBL would have just switched places.

This is a good sum-up of what happened at deadline. I forgot to look for who wasn't even around.

yes on lynch Mert: Huck, Ythill, DGB, CDB, Ecto, inHim, CTD, Yos, CES
no on lynch Mert: chamber, Flameaxe
have not weighed in: Glork, MBL, Mert, Fritz, shanba, stark, Gurgi

Where are the scum right now, on or off this wagon? If there are 4-5 scum, there are very likely some on this wagon. Why would scum switch from or choose Mert over inHim?

1) inHim is better scum than Mert
2) Mert is town

3) Mert is scum

I'd be shocked if scum would switch to nail a scumbuddy this late--they'd find excuses not to. Are all nine of the people on the Mertwagon town?

aargh, I hate the thought of hammering someone who's V/LA and who just went through a family crisis. Thinking.

I did notice that he had the Mert votes in order, except that he switched positions for InHim and CDB.


I didn't get a good feeling from this post

CTD, should I hammer? Mert's probably town, based on my brief and half-thought-through analysis.

But there is info on Mert now via this wagon.

To be fair, I'd feel comfortable with MBL in the mix and say that there are two scum in CDB, CES, Porochaz, MBL.

[HackerHuck]

Hey this is total crap! You have successfully determined that towns can mislynch, woo. That you think being willing to no-lynch is a sign of townhood makes me want to lynch you and chamber shortly thereafter.

Yet you've never mentioned that as a problem with Chamber before - only noting it as weird. That post was also a rebuttal to Porochaz saying that looking at the Mert wagon was irrelevant. I don't think it is and I can't fathom less than two scum on it.

So now you're just stealing MBL's analysis whole-hog and then taking note of minutia that you had better not be using to determine alignment.

Explain why that is a problem.

I didn't get a good feeling from this post

CTD, should I hammer? Mert's probably town, based on my brief and half-thought-through analysis.

But there is info on Mert now via this wagon.

To be fair, I'd feel comfortable with MBL in the mix and say that there are two scum in CDB, CES, Porochaz, MBL.

So what's your reasoning for MBL being scum. Extra points if you use your own analysis!

Let's see, I started off that quote by saying that I didn't get a good feeling about what MBL said. I also commented on the similar behaviour by Flameaxe. It's scummy to say you don't want to hammer, but you also don't want to no lynch. Both MBL and Flameaxe acted like they were hoping someone else would hammer. Doesn't it seem weird to you that MBL was so reluctant to hammer that he asked CTD's permission to do it?

I was basically correcting this part of my previous post.

two out of:
CDB, CES, Porochaz, (you others would throw me into this group)
one out of
Gurgi, Chamber, Ether, (maybe MBL, but not likely)

Scummiest to towniest:
Porochaz
Ether
CDB
Gurgi
CES
Chamber
MBL
Shanba
CTD
Huck

I would move MBL from the Gurgi, Chamber, Ether group into the CDB, CES, Porochaz group. MBL is still pretty low on my scum list, but his end of day behaviour has pulled him from my definitely town group.

[HackerHuck]

CDB - two things:
Are you looking at those three people based on Glork's posting or independently?
If I'm your top suspect, why am I missing from your analysis?

[HackerHuck]

Hey Gurgi- Why would scum-chamber put his neck out supporting a no-lynch when the other alternatives are both townie lynches? That's a completely different situation than proposing a no-lynch when the alternative (Glork) is scum.

[HackerHuck]

You weren't in that analysis because I already read through you before, and I was reading specifically those three to decide which two out of them are your buddies.

Was that read through before or after the Glork flip?


Gurgi - you're still not getting it. Why would scum want a no lynch in that situation?
-It draws unnecessary attention to you by stating that you would rather no-lynch
-If you're successful in getting a no-lynch, it will hurt your scum team.
Explain to me where the scum motivation is.

Re: MBL 'Analysis', here's the quote again...

This is a good sum-up of what happened at deadline. I forgot to look for who wasn't even around.

yes on lynch Mert: Huck, Ythill, DGB, CDB, Ecto, inHim, CTD, Yos, CES
no on lynch Mert: chamber, Flameaxe
have not weighed in: Glork, MBL, Mert, Fritz, shanba, stark, Gurgi

Where are the scum right now, on or off this wagon? If there are 4-5 scum, there are very likely some on this wagon. Why would scum switch from or choose Mert over inHim?

1) inHim is better scum than Mert
2) Mert is town

3) Mert is scum

I'd be shocked if scum would switch to nail a scumbuddy this late--they'd find excuses not to. Are all nine of the people on the Mertwagon town?

aargh, I hate the thought of hammering someone who's V/LA and who just went through a family crisis. Thinking.

If you read my post, I was mainly referring to the first three lines of the quote, specifically the one that listed who hadn't commented on the Mert wagon. That's pretty important to note if one is looking at who was on which wagon and why.
His questions are still good ones to think about regardless of alignment.
I probably should have clipped off the last bit of the quote because it's irrelevant now that we know that both Mert and InHim are town. The only interesting piece is that MBL almost has to be scum if all 9 of the people on the Mertwagon were town.
I'll repeat it again, but MBL is the least scummy out of the other four surviving people on the Mert lynch.
You basically went into that post and picked out a couple of things to harp on without even commenting on the real analysis.
Do you think that there is more than one Mafia on the Mert wagon?
If you do, than who is your second choice besides me?

[HackerHuck]

Gurgi - you're looking at it from the wrong perspective. In that situation, no-lynch hurts the scum more. Chamber drew extra attention to himself for doing

[HackerHuck]

that, so I don't see how that makes any sense from a scum perspective.

[HackerHuck]

"How is your play as scum different from your play in this game?"

I avoided this question when you first asked it, because it's not really an easy one to answer. My goal as scum is to play the same way I do when I'm town, but I'm not the best at assessing whether that's the case. I can point you to my two most recent scum games if it helps more. One just finished and the other is a few months old.

It's Always Sunny...
The Return to Liten

Shanba - I should probably point you to invitational 11, where most of the town in that game would have given me the same assessment that you just did.

Huck, can you please give more fleshed-out thoughts of how you view CDB?

I think he's likely scum. It's a little difficult to be objective since he's spent so much time focused on me, but there are a few things that bug me about him. He doesn't mention Glork until Glork starts to get a little heat from Ythill. At that point, he hedges himself a little by saying that he'll look next at Glork and MBL, but he's not sure in which order. That seems to give him an out in case the attention on Glork dies down. Once the claim comes through, he says that 'instinct' tells him Glork is scum. In half a day, he comes back to place his vote even though he hasn't really read through Glork all the way and the key to his vote is that Glork asked me why I didn't put MBL in my scum group. I also don't understand why he chose not to look at my interactions with Glork, rather relying on his earlier conclusion that I'm scum. I'm also going to fall back on my 'two of these four are scum' conclusion. I'm leaning town on MBL, null on CES, which leaves Porochaz and CDB as my two most likely suspects.
The one thing that makes me a little confused is Glork's vote on UT early day one. No reasoning, it puts him in the seven slot out of a ten person lynch and I don't know if scum would bus on a crap wagon day one.

[HackerHuck]

Huck, you think that the scum counterclaimed themselves and hoped there wouldn't be a third cop?

Why do you ask? I think I've been pretty clear that I believed CTD was a one-shot cop ever since his claim, although I didn't believe it to be a true counter-claim at the time.

[HackerHuck]

Ether - it seems like you're waiting around to drop the hammer. Why do you think my wagon has stalled?

[HackerHuck]

If I'm scum, then why has my wagon stalled?

[HackerHuck]

I'm not sure what you expected me to say about that. I'm scummy for my behaviour regarding the Glork claim. I can't deny that I was wrong about Glork. The rest of the post is a bunch of assumptions based on me being scum, so it's not worth discussing. I feel like I've made some decent points over the last few days, so just get it over with unless there's something specific you want from me.

[HackerHuck]

So who not on the wagon is scum?

[HackerHuck]

Do you think it's two out of Ether, MBL, and Porochaz? Ether's waiting to hammer - do you find that scummy? If not, then you think my partners are MBL and Porochaz? I'd be curious to know how that really makes any sense.

[HackerHuck]

I probably will. I still think Huck's scum, and his recent behavior only makes me feel better about this. He's tuned out since Monday, and after coming back he's just going on about wagon stalling. I think if he were town, the knowledge that his top two were both people who were calmly letting his wagon stall might be remotely interesting to him.

What are you talking about? I asked you about it and you gave a half-baked answer that no one was around and that you wanted to talk to them before you dropped the hammer. Now that it appears something new is stalling my wagon, you appear unconcerned and reiterate your desire to lynch. It doesn't really say anything about your alignment though, because it would be too risky to quick-lynch me now that you've been asked not to. That's especially true if CDB is town.

CES - if you buy the theory that MBL is putting forward, that means your scumteam would be me, Porochaz, and CDB. How does that feel to you?

[HackerHuck]

See...if you actually had a problem with my answer--if you actually gave a shit about scumhunting--maybe you should have called me out on your own initiative before dropping it and leaving me to draw my own conclusions. The thing that's stalling your wagon is

me:

my impatience with Zorblag and CDB, my love of CrashTextDummie, my silly inner conflicts over MBL. That was true before Zorblag posted, and it's even truer now that you're at -1. You ask me what I'm talking about, but I'm not even clear what issue you're taking with what I said.

Ether - you've been tunneling on me for no apparent reason since you entered the game. You accuse me of avoiding the thread, yet when I specifically ask you questions I either get no response or some rambling answer that doesn't make sense. What conclusions did you make from your own half-baked response? What does your impatience with Zorblag and CDB have to do with my wagon? Why should we believe that Porochaz isn't just inactive, and if he's really avoiding my wagon for some reason, what does that mean to you (considering he's one of my top two as you put it)?

[HackerHuck]

Ether...You accuse me of avoiding the thread, yet when I specifically ask you questions I either get no response or some rambling answer that doesn't make sense.

[HackerHuck]

Nicely pulled out by the remaining town. I feel bad once again for being such a distraction. It seems that my insistence on Etherscum put me out there in a rather uncomfortable place. It wasn't until Glork spilled it in the QT that I realised I was going down the wrong path.

I'm on AIM most weekdays while at work, but I don't really visit scumchat much.