Oldy Mafia (Game Over, who won?)

[Shanba]

Hi people who haven't played with me! I'm Shanba. Nice to meet you.

Vote: Fritzler

Obvlurkerscum.

I was going to wait for yos to post then vote whoever he voted, but he was taking so damn long.

[Shanba]

I can confirm. It's based on the fact that IH flakes. ALL THE FRIGGING TIME. I can't remember seeing him complete a game.


Anyhoo,

Unvote, VOTE: CTD

Let's DO this.

[Shanba]

I endorse Mert's post. Except the bit about the CTD wagon.

Actually I'm a wee bit curious. How many of you are just wagoning for the sake of it?

[Shanba]

Listen, just because you can't think outside of your own box, it doesn't limit the rest of us. You keep your little RVS formula for vote placing. Got your checklist out for "How to build a wagon"? In case you hadn't noticed, I got onto the Stark bandwagon that already had chamber on it. You know what that means? Because apparently you need things painted in red. It means we had one group of 3 WITH STARK IN IT voting for Chamber, and then we had Chambers group VOTING FOR STARK. You know what that is? It's a dichotomy. It is two opposing bandwagons, exactly as advertised and exactly what a town needs on page 2.

This has been bugging me a bit lately. I know it's nice and all when these kind of patterns arise spontaneously, but I'm not sure how much value a dichotomy like that has when it's being deliberately manufactured.

This game is starting to develop nice texture.

unvote vite inhim

[Shanba]

I've been prodded. I guess this means I'm lurking or something. I'm not. I'm strategically positioning myself to make a number of posts saying "OK GUYS THIS TIME I PROMISE I'LL CATCH UP TOMORROW" before replacing out.

Honestly, I'm really getting nothing that's ringing any major bells. Inhim's last post is horrible however and you should all vote him.

[Shanba]

I'm not really feeling ectoscum.

[Shanba]

ok so I'm running off about 10 hours sleep in the last 72 hours, so excuse me if this gets a bit rambly or confused. But th problem I have with ectoscum is that I don't really get what it's based off. No, that's not quite right. It just looks to me like Ecto's been kinda acerbic and has come in here with some off beat theory ideas and now is starting to feel the heat just for that, like a newbie who's suggested no lynch. I don't agree with that shit being scummy, and I don't really agree with it being scummy for ectomancer here either. I think his ideas and approach are kinda questionable, but I'm not feeling ectoscum.

By contrast, inhim's post about how he's losing confidence in his defence of untrod was really bad. It was like, super lazy with regards to just using fritz' one liner, and is super awkard in the way it appears to be trying to switch his position up. From where he's now sitting, he can go either way - he can reluctantly vote tripod and claim mind over heart, or he can halfheartedly defend him based on where the wind is going. I think that's a comfortable position for scum to be in - particularly scum who thinks they may have made a wrong call in defending tripod to start with. Honestly the thing that bugs me is that the tripod wagon was pretty much hot air, so to defend him by stating something along the lines of "the only reason I think you're town is gut" seems super weird.

As a corollary, Glork's reads aren't making much sense. It's been a while since I've played with Glork, but generally his reads make lots and lots of sense to me, even if I disagree with him. So I've got the corner of my eye looking peripherically in his general direction. In fact I'd like an explanation of his townread on inhim more than anything. I guess he has more experience with the guy.

Also Yos not taking an active role in proceedings means raised eyebrows from me. Yos is usually in the thick of it, and if he's not it's because he's trying to rouse the lurkers. Instead he's lurking a bit hisself. That worries me. He's my second spot behind inhim.

My early vote switch was just cuz the thing ythill had brought up seemed to be losing steam and I figured it was better we don't lose momentum. I think I had some vague reason why he was the best of the 1-vote brigade, but I forget what. People who started spouting actual reasons for their votes on that wagon seem like they're trying too hard - I haven't really looked it over, tbh.

[Shanba]

That's a stretch, ythill. My point is more along the lines that it is plausible there's something I'm missing, and that given the fact that Glork has played with the guy more than I have, it's again plausible that Glork has picked up on it.

Ecto - what the hell do you mean by a situational read? Is that just a fancy word for "WHO I THINK IS SCUM RIGHT NOW?" Cause that's what I mean when I say a scumread - it's the guy I think is scum. I don't see any way to play mafia without at some point thinking people are scum which is equivalent to having a scumread.

[Shanba]

I'd like toi point out in my defence that I've still managed only another 5 hours sleep.

Nevertheless I will pursue this doggedly -and you will excuse me for making sure that we are absolutely clear here, as misunderstandings due to vocab issues are unbelievably tedious to unravel after the fact - that sliding of the probability meter in one or other direction could very well be described as a scumread or a townread., could it not? So why can't you tell us which way your sliding probability meters are going on various players and arrange them roughly in order of scumminess? At the moment, what is sounds like is simply obfuscating words to excuse you from telling us your scumreads. So what am I missing?

Honestly what it sounds like in that post about fritz/mert is that your example of a situational read is not properly speaking a read at all, it's more your method of scumhunting. I don't care about the process

too

much, although frankly I don't like the type of sherlock holmesesque "i'mma work it all out perfectly and evaluate every situation" - I feel like there's too much noise in the equation to analyse all possibilities and and the probability of each possibility. But that's just me - if it works for you I guess.

[Shanba]

Ythill the holes you are picking are illusory. Why are you playing semantics games instead of scumhunting?

[Shanba]

On an unrelated note, Ecto is acting really shifty for no apparent reason. His whole "I don't have scum reads, I have situations where I think a person is more likely to be scum then town..." is really silly; that's pretty much the textbook definition of what a scum read IS. Anyway, I'd like to hear what his reads are; he made some vague comments earlier, but I'd like to see a little more specificity.

Quit parroting me Yos o_o

Seriously though the chamber ythill thing just feels super contrived. Like honestly both need to sit back clar their minds with some zen breathing shit or something and then reread the game and see whether they've accidentally been talking bullshit for most of this game.

NEED MORE SLEEP

[Shanba]

Wow. Independent of alignment, I have to note that MBL is awesome. Like seriously, I wish I'd played with this guy before.

Untrod Tripod and IH need to make more of an effort, especially UT.

Ythill's attack on chamber is pretty much garbage, but I'm also fairly worried about chamber's approach to the game at the moment. He appears to be using the attack on him as an excuse to not do anything any more except defend himself. I don't expect in depth cases or anything (heh) but I wouldn't mind at least a list of reads.

I think I've run out of reasons to defend UT, even if I still have this gut feeling he's town.

Fritz pretty much nailed it with his latest post.

I still have major problems with this post. It's just so insincere. I hate to harp on a point like this, but seriously, inHim, did you think UT looked scummy? If not what's with the "running out of reasons to defend him" thing? It just doesn't seem quite right for reasons I'm struggling to articulate. OTOH, I'm totally on board with his recent pressure of Yos.

I'm really not feeling an Ectowagon. There've been a few decent points raised against him, but it feels kinda... frothy? With bits and pieces of little case all over the place, but nothing super solid to base a lynch wagon on, and no recurring patterns of scummy behaviour, to the extent where it seems like nitpicking of his play rather than out and out scumhunting.

[Shanba]

Ok so it's apparently been frigging ages since I posted. I claim the same as CDB + exams. Perhaps this game was not such a great idea, ehehe.

I'mma check the deadline and see if I need to make a post of substance now. Or whether I can continue to delay and procrastinate.

[Shanba]

No one believes me, but I'm totally game for a Shanba lynch.

I mean.

Shanba is scheming for the widest possible umbrella of suspicion. That keeps options open for many wagons, today and days future. And it keeps Shanba artificially "consistent" which is something scum worries about a lot. Shanba can jump on any number of wagons and claim prior suspicion.

Also, lurkish. Eleven posts only.

Shanba suspects:

Fritzler - "lurkerscum" in random phase.
CTD - vote, no reason given.
Everyone - "How many of you are just wagoning for the sake of it?"
Inhim - with a vote.
Glork
Yosarian
Ythill
UT/CDB - called out for lack of effort
IH - called out for lack of effort

Shanba endorsements:

Ecto - possibly only in anticipation of a town flip (though we have 2 scum factions?). Repeated warnings that Ecto is not scummy.
Mert

Other than that, there's a lot of incoherent IIoA.

Fritz is a random stage vote, ut/cdb was a calling out and not a "you are scum" and I dont recall being suspicious of ythill? I reserve the right to call out every piece of shit I see. And IIoA? Where?


Ok, let me state it clearly: I have a very strong gut suspicion of Yosarian and Glork. I have a much stronger case against inhim. They are the only 3 I think are scum.

The wagon against Ectomancer looks like smoke and mirrors. I mean, take what Yos said:

On an unrelated note, Ecto is acting really shifty for no apparent reason. His whole "I don't have scum reads, I have situations where I think a person is more likely to be scum then town..." is really silly; that's pretty much the textbook definition of what a scum read IS. Anyway, I'd like to hear what his reads are; he made some vague comments earlier, but I'd like to see a little more specificity.

Also, I'm really getting weirded out by your behavior this game. I've played with you before, and I've never seen you so consistently hostile, so overly emotional and angry at everything; I've never seen you take everything in such a personal way, be so OMGUSy, or to attack personally everyone who says anything negative about your play. It all seems completely out of proportion to what's been going on this game, and it seems out of character for you.

He says his scumhunting is reasonable for day 1, and then he says that he hasn't done enough scumhunting - but he's hardly alone there, is he? He keeps discrediting what Ecot is doing - his attacks are OMGUS, or weak as milkwater, or forgotten entirely (like the things that he earlier pointed out as scumhunting.) Sure, if you discount all the scumhunting Ecto has done, then Ecto hasn't scumhunted. That's not all that surprising.

Which means that somewhere along the line of Yos getting into irrelevant theory discussions and being accused of being scum by ectomancer, somehow his position has changed from thinking that Ecto is a stubborn townie digging his heels in into thinking that ecto is worth lynching. I mean, wtf is this?

(nods) Yeah, Ecto's been incredibly frustrating in the way he's basically refused to respond to the issues I have with him and the questions I've asked of him, no matter how many different times I say it and no matter how many different ways I say it. If he doesn't change his behavior soon, I may lynch him just out of the lack of any better ideas of how to handle him.

That's like, utterly ridiculous.

The only guy who really seems to be bringing up stuff that's anything more than "ECTO IS PLAYING WEIRD OMG" is MBL. He's also the guy Glork has picked out as bussing LOLWUT? I honestly have no idea why Glork thinks MBL is probably bussing; it just seems like he's picked out an accusation from a dartboard and used it to justify his suspicion.

Then inhim I have no clue what he's doing. He never responded to the point I raised against him. Oh, and on that note, why CES? I also think his bbm vote was pretty damn weak. I dont know why people think that misreading stuff is particularly scummy. Eh. He's kinda low on content, but that's nt what inHim picked out, so yeah.

[Shanba]

This is painful (joining DGB's wagon), but I will do it for the good of the people

unvote, Vote: MBL

We got two days, go go go go go go!

Why are you not voting inhim?

[Shanba]

Hey DGB I posted!

Post back?

[Shanba]

You're still voting InHim, I am unimpressed.

Weeell I could switch my vote up. But I'm not switching to ecto. And other than ecto inhim is still the biggest wagon (or at least was at last vc). So why would I?

[Shanba]

Have you checked MBL lately?

So he's at 4? He's an even worse wagon than Ecto, tbqh. As Ecto is a townie playing weirdly whereas MBL is a townie playing fairly well.

[Shanba]

If you're really a doctor, then why in the name of hell have you been trying so goddamned hard to get yourself lynched today?

Or maybe you've just been trying really hard to get him lynched by blowing up small shit and attacking him vis playstyle over substance. /notbitter.

I need to get my head right for this. I'm struggling to articulate what exactly it is about you that is so ridic scummy but you're pretty much on top. I doubt I'll die tonight, so I'll be using the night phase to try and get to grips.

[Shanba]

So Yos then.

Let's start with the Ecto wagon thing. I really dislike the way he first approached ectomancer - he says he thinks ectomancer is looking shifty, but then disclaims the attack a whole bunch, but keeps prodding him anyway. I don't see how the following thought process occurs from a townie who is trying to scumhunt:

On an unrelated note, Ecto is acting really shifty for no apparent reason. His whole "I don't have scum reads, I have situations where I think a person is more likely to be scum then town..." is really silly; that's pretty much the textbook definition of what a scum read IS. Anyway, I'd like to hear what his reads are; he made some vague comments earlier, but I'd like to see a little more specificity.

Also, I'm really getting weirded out by your behavior this game. I've played with you before, and I've never seen you so consistently hostile, so overly emotional and angry at everything; I've never seen you take everything in such a personal way, be so OMGUSy, or to attack personally everyone who says anything negative about your play. It all seems completely out of proportion to what's been going on this game, and it seems out of character for you.

Right now, I think it's possible that Ecto is just a stubborn townie that's dug his heels in for some reason i don't udnerstand, but the only way I'm going to figure out if that's true or not is to pressure him and try to get him to start playing the game.

Ecto's obviously never going to respond to the case against him, and nothing in any of his posts makes any sense at all or seems to have any connection to the rest of the game. And I have a strong suspicion he's just going to vanish and lurk for another 4 days now. I hope he proves me wrong, but until he starts posting and making some bloody sense, he can have by vote.

The thing is, I never really saw a case against him. The way it developed was thusly: Yos and Ecto get into a nice big argument with a lot of flim-flam - the only real attack being made is that ecto hasn't scumhunted quite enough, but it's interspersed with loads of theory and a few comments about how Ecto is weirding him out. I mean, that's it. And that's weak. And that's odd, too, because I don't think Ecto was special here - what was special was the way Ecto painted a ncie big target on his head by acting really stupidly. The thing is, the whole ecto thing from yos doesn't look like how I'd expect a townie to approach it. It looks too much like he's keeping up appearances - there's not

enough

(though there is some) asking ecto to reveal his reads, and there's too much point scoring and presenting how Yos feels about things. Whereas, I can totally see a scumyos sitting there trying to work out whether or not he should jump on the easy wagon, and that explains his back and forthing about whether ecto is scummy rather neatly.

And then there's the way it totally overtakes his reads on chamber and hackerhuck. He notes just before the argument with Ecto that he thinks chamber is super scummy. When you guys think someone is super scummy, what do you do? Do you start trying to drive a lynch wagon and aggressively questioning him? Or do you park your vote on him and start an argument with someone else and not mention the guy you're voting until someone asks you about him?

Finally there's what he's

not

doing. I'd expect townieYos to be much more involved with the game - instead, he's let himself be totally distracted by Ecto all day 1. There's no aggressive pursuing of lurkers or even looking elsewhere to where the rest of the town is looking. He has some non-ecto reads, but they're largely unexplained and largely uninteresting. There's nothing that I'm seeing from him that's suggesting to me that he is trying to work out who scum is, rather than who would be an easy place to hide a vote.

So yeah.

Vote: yos

I have no real opinion on the mert wagon. It seems kinda boring to be honest. A quick compromise wagon to avoid lynching the claimed power role on a low-activity player? Yeah. I'm not sure how that's telling in any way.

[Shanba]

Also, I found with experience that taking off-wagon players into consideration made the scumputer work worse, not better. So I've stopped doing that altogether.

So the fact that without it your VC analysis is just a veiled way of going after bandwagonners doesn't bother you? I'm sympathetic to the notion that excessive bandwagonning can be a scum tell, but this is no way of applying that tell. Do you deny that I would end up high on your list every game simply as a result of my playstyle?

That's correct. If you end up high on that list no matter what, then we have to kill you.

In Whoniverse mafia, we NK'd you, and you were scum. You hadn't had a vote all game. So you're quite likely to remain undetected scum. We can't keep you to end game. You need to die much sooner.

CES is a good player, so we must kill him quickly? -_-

[Shanba]

CES is a good player, so we must kill him quickly? -_-

No, he's just a shameless bandwagoner, on whom we can't get an accurate read. And don't let me get started on his endgame in Magician's Mafia.

There are other ways of reading players than bandwagon analysis.

[Shanba]

This is just wrong, in so many ways.

The first thing you quote is me mentioning that Ecto was acting in a weird way. Now, that's not a strong attack against someone, and it wasn't meant to be; just a brief observation in a post that was mostly devoted to talking about other things.

The idea that "the only real attack being made is that ecto hasn't scumhunted enough" is just garbage. The attack against Ecto was never just based on the amount of scumhunting he was doing, although of course that was part of it. It was that the scumhunting he DID do was weak, and looked more like a scum pretending to scumhunt then someone actually scumhunting. Look at his attack on Gurgi. He started off with a reasonable day 1-ish attack on him, but he hedged it with "weasel words". As soon as he was challanged on it, he withdrew from saying gurgi was "1 point scummy" to "1/2 point scummy". He never followed up on it, he never really answered and questions about it, and instead, he spent hundreds of words trying to create a mafia theory justification for not scumhunting. His "attack" on mert is even worse; it's not even clear if he was attacking mert or not, and even though I asked him about it half a dozen times and even though MBL attacked him on it, he refused to ever explain.

The only point he started to suddenly become agressive, instead of defensive/overcautious/passive with a series of excuses for why he was so passive, was in response to being attacked.

There were a long list of other problems I had with his play, too, but that was really the core of it.

I don't know how many times I explained this yesterday, Shanba, but it was a hell of a lot of times. I don't believe that you don't understand what I was saying, and I don't believe that you actually think that my attack on him was "flim flam" or "weak" or "based on ecto painting a target on his head". You tried to attack me with this yesterday before deadline, too, when you apparently deliberately misrepresented what I was saying about Ecto. As I said yesterday, your actions here don't make any real sense as town; I don't think town Shanba would be having this much trouble understanding a relatively straightforward case, especially considering how many times and how many different ways I explained it. Scum Shanba would certainly be using this situation to get an advantage, though.

First off: yay for little jabs at me. I'd prefer you actually state that you think I am acting scummy and come out with a case to little insinuations here and there. That looks like more smoke and mirrors and rhetoric - which is what I think happened with Ectomancer, by the by. That whole wagon just felt so bad the whole way through. Like, there was nothign that struck me as particularly exceptional in his play - low on scumhunting, but not exceptionally so. Probably in the bottom quarter, but I wouldn't have stated any lower than that. Maybe being a bit limp in his reads. But in terms of an overall pattern of play, he wasn't really pinging on my radar. In fact, the only thing that really stood out about his play was the superbly bizarre and aggressive theorising that started coming from him - but I honestly don't see how that shit is scummy. It's a total honey trap - it's so easy to get caught up on the guy making a big loud scene and ignoring all the other players so that that guy gets tons of analysis and dissecting of his posts etc. But really truly honestly? I cannot understand the huge fuss.

And for scum, that shit is hard to deal with. Like, do you wagon? That's the kind of wagon I'd be super wary of as scum. I mean, analysis later in the game is probably going to wreck you. But still, it's so god damn appealing, such an easy place to park your vote, and if many townies are also expressing the same opinions then it's a nice place to hide. Scum would dither, they'd push it but maybe not hard, maybe not sure, maybe lay some groundwork first. I'd expect from scum roughly what I saw from yos. A lot of sound and fury before jumping on the wagon.

On specifics: yeah you note that the scumhunting isn't good enough, but not until later in your argument with ecto:

That's all reasonable day 1 scumhunting. (Well, the "chamber" thing is a little iffy). The problem is, there just wasn't much of it, and I don't get what the point of the rest of your posts are; you seem to have a poor signal/noise ratio. And the small amount of scumhunting you did, you didn't really follow up on it; if the only thing you have at the moment is a slight read on gurgi, I don't get why you're not voting him, why you're not questioning him, ect.

That's irrelevent, though. I have not attacked you for explaining your scum hunting methods; I've attacked you for not scumhunting. If you had a dozen posts talking about esoteric mafia theory and a dozen posts trying to figure out who the scum were, I wouldn't mind at all. If you have a dozen posts talking about mafia theory and two posts scumhunting, neither of which you ever really followed up on, that's a problem.

And so I guess the point I'm making is, that it's his lack of scumhunting that drew you in and got your attention.

By the by, I totally understand your attack on him. I just think it's bullshit. I also think that you managed to make it seem like you had a larger case against him than you actually did in all the words that you exchanged. And I also think that scum would have wanted in, and they'd probably have approached it like you did. So yeah, I think you're scum.


is cdb just a lurkerwagon? lame.


As an aside, I have two exams left on the 16th and 17th - after that I'm totally free again. Well, apart from familial holiday commitments - I think I might be on vacation the first week of january or something like that. But I might have internet there anyway. If I do, it'll be pretty much all I have, so I'll be superactive, if not, then meh.

[Shanba]

whoever asked: inhim is still scummy. I haven't gone over him in depth. I'm using the yos thing as a means to stay somewhat active whilst in exam period, so my elsewhere reads are fairly limited (I have some townreads if you care).

[Shanba]

I have no real opinion on the mert wagon. It seems kinda boring to be honest. A quick compromise wagon to avoid lynching the claimed power role on a low-activity player? Yeah. I'm not sure how that's telling in any way.

This entire paragraph is kind of bullshit.

I'd be content to lynch Shanba today.

Vote: Shanba

it's not bullshit. Like, here's the thing - town's gonna jump on to get a lynch. scum's gonna jump on to get a lynch. woo.

[Shanba]

Not happy about no one liking my Stark vote and now it looks like Ether's appearance has made it somewhat more unlikely that anyone will go along with it.

Gurgi - you could look at my last post for a little more insight on scum Shanba. He doesn't seem to be aligning his actions well with his suspicions. The comments on the Mert wagon are also concerning.

The scum had to be nervous when that wagon came up so fast.

You're going to need to unpack that one a little bit. Why would the scum be concerned about quicklynching someone not on their team?

Yeah thats pretty dumb.

Anyhoo, I note there's pressure rising against me. Glork needs to give me something to work with so I can actually try and address any of his concerns.

But please, please, please guys make sure you call out yos when I die. I don't want to be lynched, it removes any influence I have, and I am pretty convinced Yos is scum. I'm not gonna respond to his latest big post right now - this is a pre-exam-find-something-to-do-while-waiting-impatiently post.

DGB is town. I'm pretty sure of that. Also have a decent town read on Hackerhuck - some of the stuff he was saying in his recent posts looks like genuine thought processes (mostly cause they mirror my own). Mrbuddylee is reading town, but I'm less confident there.

[Shanba]

I have no real opinion on the mert wagon. It seems kinda boring to be honest. A quick compromise wagon to avoid lynching the claimed power role on a low-activity player? Yeah. I'm not sure how that's telling in any way.

This entire paragraph is kind of bullshit.

I'd be content to lynch Shanba today.

Vote: Shanba

it's not bullshit. Like, here's the thing - town's gonna jump on to get a lynch. scum's gonna jump on to get a lynch. woo.

It's bullshit because there's no way you could get ZERO inklings from that wagon at all. If the scums wanted to wagon someone to lynch, then there had to be SOME turning point that made them jump to Mert. If they didn't, then you should be doing what HackerHuck is doing, and closely examining the people who were off-wagon when the lynch went down. But instead of bothering to think about these possibilities, you make a blanket non-statement like "I have no real opinion" of it? Nope. That's bullshit.

But fine, some questions for you.

1) Do you think that anybody who put Mert ahead of the other lynch candidates is likely to be scum (inHim/CDB if memory serves me correctly)?
2) Do you think that anybody who piled onto the wagon late to ensure that he'd be the only "viable lynch candidate" is likely to be scum (CTD/CES/Yos2)?
3) Do you think that anybody who was around posting at deadline (MBL, Flameaxe, Lord Gurgi) is likely to be scum?
4) What about the people who got the ball rolling (HackerHuck, DGB, Ythill)?


.....or do you really think that each of these behaviors are equally likely to come from scum and town?

I'm so glad I have FOUR WHOLE QUESTIONS to answer.

I'll start with number 3: Flameaxe and chamber I believe were stating that they didn't want to just randomly lynch someone, whereas other people were telling them to get off their arses and lynch. In both these cases, it strikes me as very likely merely differing opinions on how to proceed about deadline lynches. Like, sure it possible that say, Flameaxe was faking concern in order to look like a townie or something, but I think it's much much much more likely he just dislikes that shit. Oh, MBL's logic there seems pretty sound; I missed that first time round. But whatever.

on 2) that's pretty much exactly what I'm talking about. THere was clearly no consensus coming on anyone else - and the cdb/ctdesque "yeah I'll just vote him" are completely null. It's like, in terms of easy compromise lynches, Mert was probably about as easy as it gets. Normally that kind of vote would get me, but it's a deadline vote. I mean, say you're cdb and town - you haven't been following the game, you don't really know what's going on, but you know it's good to get a lynch. In that position, I reckon you'd vote Mert. If you're cdb and scum, however, pretty much the same logic applies - not only are you gonna want a lynch (since townlynch>nolynch for scum) but you would want a lynch as a townie anyway (randomlynch>nolynch). So you're gonna vote mert whatever your alignment is. The only thing I'd say about yos is that I don't really like his "OH NO YOU'RE A DOC" thing - reaction seems a little forced. But I have an inkling that I'm partially suffering from confirmation bias there. It's passing my normal tests for confirmation bias though, so I think it is scummy. But a minor point.

4)Is just about the only position I think has anything really telling of alignment: I dislike Ythill's whole "uhoh not sure I wanna lynch him in case he's a power role" thing for pretty much the same reason I dislike Yos' thing about Ecto there. He'd been gunning pretty hard for a mertlynch and he has sudden doubts at the last second - strange. He's essentially considering giving him an out via lurking.

1) No one put him above the other candidates? Except like, hackerhuck and ythill. I've already mentioned them.

I mean, all in all Mert was not a bad lynch. Very day 1, but had just enough substance to make it work, and given he was essentially a compromise candidate for most of the people, that doesn't surprise me. The thing is, I just spent an hour doing that and I came up with the conclusion that Ythill is slightly scummy. Do you see what I mean? In terms of interest, that wagon is practically down there with the random voting stage.

I'm falling into the trap of defending myself instead of scumhunting because it's just easier right now. Although, I'm not sure that continuing to trade walls of post with Yos is even helpful any more, and I think I'm losing the argument. But I'm right. I'm only losing cause Yos is better at arguing.

[Shanba]

Kinda. I'm following the thread whilst talking to patrick and studying.

Yos is beating me at the argument where I am saying he is scum cause his play on the ecto wagon stinks.

[Shanba]

Do you want me to link you to my big case or just write it all out again?

Broad strokes: I don't think Ecto was particularly scummy, but I do think he was acting strange. Hence, he's the sort of wagon that's gonna attract scum - but cautious scum are gonna be wary about getting on that type of wagon. Ultimately, if scum is on the wagon, I expect them to hedge their bets a bit. I think Yos' approach to the Ecto wagon was hedging his bets - he doesn't

really

want to commit, but he allows himself to get drawn into an argument and then votes him. Plus, I think Yos' case on Ecto was always weak, and he used quite a lot of rhetoric to shore up the gaps.

Secondly, I think he's been singularly non-inquisitive this game. He's looking at the obvious stuff, but not really bringing a whole lot of new things to the table. He's reactive rather than pro-active, and I don't think that's townYoslike. I mean, whatever you think of the case on me, it's telling that Yos has gone after me instead of developing any of his other reads. Think back to Ectomancer - Ectomancer was making big waves and making himself obvious and that's where Yos ended up. The biggest exception to this is the chamberwagon - but I dislike how little he's pushed that, considering he apparently was convinced by about his fifteenth post that chamber is obvscum.

[Shanba]

Tentative

unvote

.

That all sounds reasonable. How come you've gotten yourself caught up in a fight with Yosarian? (This is not a fight I want to restart. Attacker-defender spats are hella boring to read.)

He's picked out the specifics of my case (posts I quoted etc.) and disagreed with my conclusions (how surprising, ). He's argued that there was more substance to the wagon than I'm admitting. He's also disagreed with my characterising of how scum would approach the wagon. In general, he's disagreed with every point I've made. He's also accused me of hypocrisy, and of (broadly speaking) being scum because of how bullshit my case etc. Also, I've lurked, so yeah.

[Shanba]

Okay.

Stop lurking. You're playing with me now. Do I need to sing?

My last exam is tomorrow.

[Shanba]

MBL: On inhim and glork. Inhim is an old read. I'm a little bit wary about pursuing it because I literally can't remember anything else he's done - perhaps that's a reason to pursue him in and of itself, but I need to read him again to get a feel for what he's done. My default assumption is that he's still scummy, though. Glork is a trickier one. Yesterday I had a pretty large gut scum read on him - mostly (I think, sometimes hard to tell with gut) for the reasons I outlined in that post (his suspicions not making any sense). But today's play has been a whole lot better. In particular, the way he handled the ether situation looked very pro-town - I subscribe to the theory that experienced scum are probably going to be able to do the broad strokes stuff pretty well - giving suspects, being relatively active, etc. etc. But those little details, like a townie's immediate gut reaction to a play - that I'm not so sure about. So I think his reaction where he suddenly stopped and looked at ether quizzically when she sheeped on him is pretty pro-town. Overall he's slipping slowly but surely off my radar.

I never (and this is gonna sound a bit odd, but it's 100% true) had a strong town read on ectomancer. Behaviourally, I think he was null - slightly scummy. But I thought the

wagon

on him was bad, and the overhyping of the case on him was bad, and for that reason I think the wagon on him was probbaly scum driven and hence he was probably a townie. For that reason, people raising legit complaints against him were not particularly high on my radar, as there was some legit reasons for thinking he was scum (as I've more or less admitted in my exchange with yos.)

Also, I'd completely forgotten Ythill had been pricking my scumdar earlier. Combined with the most recent blip from the mertwagon analysis glork made me do (the bastard ;_;) I'mma reread his posts. So order of business is Ythill-InHim reading.

Ces: your vote on me was purely for reactions? What sorts of reactions were you expecting/hoping for? Isn't not reacting in itself a reaction?

[Shanba]

@Shanba, who are the scum that helped bail out their scumpartner inHim? What's up with Glork?

I'll go have a look for this too.

[Shanba]

Unvote, vote: Channel, I have faith in chamber and my Shanbavote didn't seem to draw any reactions. Boo.

So, why did you unvote then? Why mention the reactions thing if that wasn't the main point of your vote in the first place?

Actually, why

did

you vote for me?

[Shanba]

so I'm gonna take a ferry instead of a plane, it seems. What does that mean for you lovely people? It means I'm going to take this thread and ponder. Deeeply ponder. But I'll only have the thread open until about some time early tomorrow, so nothing post that gets the benefit of pondering.

In the meantime, I already did some reading last night. Ythill is rising up my scumdar. I dislike the non-committal attack on chamber and the attack on ecto is pretty silly too - from early day 1. There's kinks I need to work out before I can get all my thoughts on this down, though.

DrippingGoofball: you don't think I have enough townreads?

Ether, how much of the game have you/are you intending to read? Who are your current scum suspects?

Yos, why is Ythill town?

[Shanba]

So my ferry journey was extremely profitable after all! Unusual, really, as normally these big grand ideas I have about using a break to make headway in a mafia game don't come to anything. But this time, indeed it did! And what gorgeous analysis I have for you all.

Firstly, the headlines: Inhim is not scum, in fact he's totally 100% town. Glork is null leaning town. Flameaxe is scummyish. Ythill is pretty scummy. Yos is still ridic scummy. Hackerhuck is scummy. All the rest are various degrees of null-town, mostly town.

Firstly, Glork. I still think his day 1 play was lazy and lurky, and I'm amazed no one really called him out on it (possible town blind spot I guess, but meh). However, the contributions that he did make are fairly reasonable, and today his play has been pretty townish. He hedged his bets on the ecto wagon a bit: he keeps going back and forth on things like MBL's questioning of ecto, whether ecto is scum with mbl, whether they're scum in different factions, whether ecto is actually scummy. I'm feeling the doubt, and it's giving me pro-town feelings. Then there's the thing with Ether that I already pointed out. Also, I think his reaction to me (loathe as I am to admit it) is probably indicative of pro-town Glork. Still, I dislike his play day 1 overall. I'm definitely not up for lynching him today - pretty sure the more he posts, the better the read I'm getting on him. So I like keeping him alive overall - not that he's in any danger of being lynched, but if there was a glork wagon at some point later today, which probably isn't impossible, I won't be on it.

Ythill is my big read. I have so much stuff on ythill. Where to start. Ythill is giving me conflicting vibes, but with enough doses of SCUM in the pot for me to have him comfortably second behind Yos. I wanna note here that I don't really care

that

he's vote-hopping like an adhd frog, but nevertheless some of the times he has chosen to vote hop and some of the choices of vote he has switched to have bugged me. Let's start at the beginning:

he begins with a pretty shitty attack on chamber, which he quickly has to back away from. It's day 1, whatever. Then he follows it up with a meh attack on ecto followed by a terrible attack on me (scumslip? SRSLY?) I dislike this pattern of bad attacks. One or two misfires might be indicative of "not quite paying attention" or "thinks differently about mafia to me". But all of them? He'd have to be an incompetent townie. He doesn't strike me as incompetent. But that's only the start.

Next, there's his incredibly manipulative exchange with chamber where he is trying to force chamber into an avatar bet. Quite apart from him finding chamber scummy after this (which I think is in and of itself ridiculous), there's the fact that it's essentially a "money where your mouth is" move. He's asking chamber to put up or shut up - an attitude which I don't think a townie should ever be taking, because it indicated first and foremost the desire to survive. He's not trying to draw anything useful out of chamber, he's just looking for an opportunity to attack and to twist the optics of the situation so that chamber will look scummy. It's terrible play if Ythill is town. (Also, he totally ignores the fact that chamber later states he has moral qualms about such bets - something which ought to be obvious if you think it through a bit. Betting is bringing outside influences into the game. I mean, imagine the situation: "A:I bet you're scum. B:I'm not A:Well then I bet you twenty bucks. Deal? If B is scum, there's no correct response to this, unless he's gonna stiff the guy twenty bucks at the end of the game. Again, outside influences. Stated in the overarching site rules.)

Then there's some of those vote switches: notably, his vote switch to Yos. I want to link this back to the Mertwagon at the end of day 1: There, he posts a nice big case against Mert, in particular pointing out that his big catchup post (303) is "The scummiest post in this game." So you're Ythill a few pages after Mert has just posted this case. You believe that vote mobility is good for the town. You decide to go after someone who your read on is "I penciled him in at null and I'm waiting to see what happens." or the guy who just posted the scummiest post in the game? In brief,

why does he not go after Mert until the deadline wagon

? Yeah, he later rereads and says "OK MERT IS SCUM WITH FRITZ AND YOS IS MIDTABLE" which leads to a "CONFIRMVOTE: YOS" post. Shit doesn't add up. Did he just completely blank on Mert's post the first time around? How can you miss the "scummiest post in the game"? And how can you not vote for that guy when you see it? Oh also on the subject, he essentially votes Yos and then explains three posts later that he's voting Yos for pressure, which is pretty silly. Probably not all that scummy though.

The one caveat I have on Ythill is that he's doing rather more work than I expect of a scum. Generally, I'd expect scum to make maybe one or two big catchup posts a game, and maybe one or two big cases a game, and other than that just cruiiise. For him to be both paying attention and frequently doing big case posts and big reread posts is rather surprising, if he's scum. (In particular, he's made a case on Mert, a votecount analysis, a reread analysis, a case on chamber, and generally other lots of little things). Weight of contribution isn't a huge towntell, but it is nevertheless a towntell in my book. Lazy scum could get away with less.

Yos is still scum (SHOCKHORROR). I have more tidbits though, in particular, this little diamond: "When someone's not contributing, there's just not that much you can say about them. That doesn't mean you don't lynch them; in fact, you lynch them twice as fast." BULL.BULL BULL BULL. This is like so key. See, you don't just give up on someone cause they stop posting. YOU SCREAM AND SHOUT TO THE RAFTERS ABOUT HOW LITTLE THEY'RE POSTING. This is fundamental. I really think this is post-hoc rationalisation by Yos.

Will finish this post after dinner. Enjoy!

[Shanba]

Part 2 of my magnificent analysis:

I'm getting some townvibes off chamber. In particular I'm not sure why Yos finds him so scummy (yeah Yos again. Let me harp on him. He's scum. When we've lynched him and he flips glork can lynch me if he wants; whatever, let's just get this scumbag). In his interactions with Ythill I think that he came off the stronger - that's probably because I think Yos is scum, though. He just reads honest to me. Eh.

CDB/UT is a tricky one. UT's early game is weak as hell, and I really dig CTD's attack on him. In particular, contrast the way that CTD goes about the CDB/UT wagon and the way that Yos goes about the chamberwagon: notice how CTD is constantly asking for more votes, constantly talking about UT. If you think someone is scum, this is what I expect! Not a post days later saying "well he shut up so I can't pressure him any more". Indeed, CTD is probably town (but that's a weak read.) CDB didn't really do much to assuage the doubts with his non-appearance - and while I can vouch for the Ashes and also that he's been busy in the recent past, his lack of playing predates the business and the Ashes has breaks between games. So yeah. On the other hand, I'm a fan of his catch up post. So he's a minor scumread. Not substantial, but worthy of a paragraph.

Next in the scumdar after Yos/Ythill, though, is Flameaxe. Seriously, why is there so little pressure on this guy? Check his posting history. Yeah, he got replaced, but he played all of day 1 first. I mean, what the hell? He's made one post with scumhunting in. ONE POST. Remember all that shit about how Ecto was not scumhunting enough/with enough quality? Why the hell did flameaxe slip these people's radar? In fact, I honestly believe that the blind spot surrounding flameaxe is kinda sinister - less eyes checking his posts for mistakes/tells. It's a weak scumtell, but combined with the rubbish we got from him yesterday, and the fact that his replacement (Porochaz) is much in the same vein, I'm thinking he's pretty likely to be scum. In particular, all the people on the CDB wagon should go back and check flameaxe/prozac's contributions to the game.

I want to note, however, that his reluctance to hammer doesn't look that scummy to me. The fact that he was there to make a fuss about it but at no point went to the effort of giving any real analysis of the game

does

look scummy, but I'm pretty sure that peculiarity in his play is a result of not understanding the theory arguments in favour of hammering at that point in the game rather than anything sinister. He also repeatedly states that he's "not sure what makes Mert so scummy at this point" but doesn't bother to go back and read the arguments people were posting about Mert (in particular, HackerHuck's). You're a townie in that spot (not really paying attention, iffy with the idea of hammering someone you don't think is scum when they're not there to defend themselves). How would you go about it?

inhim's lone crusade against Flameaxe is one of the reasons my read on him has 180. He's looking in places where others aren't. He also voted Yos right after that nugget from yos about chamber I pointed out last post. I think both of these are very pro-town reactions. One scummy post doesn't counteract the rest. And I mean, shit like this is pretty bang on the money. I'm not thrilled with some of the conspiracyesque stuff he posted about yos/gurgi/mbl, but meh. He's town. His perspective is too much that of a town player.

Gurgi is actually substantially similar, by the by. Lots and lots of :goodposting: moments from him. I'm slightly worried that he seems to be spending an inordinate amount of time defending people and not scumhunting, but apart from that minor caveat he's town.

Finally (and with no real nice link from the Gurgi section ) HackerHuck is fairly scummy. Lots of his posts are pretty weasel-wordish, with caveats and stuff. And he's massively low in total posts (but at least higher in content than the likes of UT/CDB and prozac/Flameaxe). But more importantly, I hate hate hate his analysis here. It's very superficial. In particular, his conclusions about stark are suspect: honestly, at the time stark was posting, Ecto was the big thing on people's minds. Later, stark loses connection. But the fact that his posts at the time were largely (though not exclusively) about Ectomancer really isn't too surprising, and the fact that Hackerhuck didn't bother to look at context here worries me muchly. Also, prefacing his read of Glork with "this is pretty frightening and here are some choice bits from his post X" and then following it up with "There's not too much to fault Glork on" is pretty ridiculous. Like, it makes zero sense at all. Unless he started rewriting the Glork section halfway through - which would explain the zero elaboration on why those "choice bits" were interesting (cause really, I'm not seeing it). In which case, he's scum. I'm willing to entertain the notion that I've misread him here, but only impatiently whilst tapping my foot and gesturing to it that it might a good idea to leave now.

Oh, which reminds me. Stark/ether is town and ETHER NEEDS TO POST MORE. Seriously, she was drawing epic reactions from people.

Happy with my Yos vote.

[Shanba]

You think my characterising of your attacks against chamber and me as terrible is fair enough? You think me calling your exchange with chamber over the "bet" thing manipulative is fair enough?

I understand you were plumbing for reactions about yos, but if that was the case why did you drop a "Yos is null to me" read quite so quickly? Also, why would you not want to get reactions to an in depth Mertcase? Personally, I find that reactions to a vote on someone I think is scummy are way more valuable than reactions to a guy I think is null. Do you disagree>

[Shanba]

...prefacing his read of Glork with "this is pretty frightening and here are some choice bits from his post X" and then following it up with "There's not too much to fault Glork on" is pretty ridiculous. Like, it makes zero sense at all. Unless he started rewriting the Glork section halfway through - which would explain the zero elaboration on why those "choice bits" were interesting (cause really, I'm not seeing it). In which case, he's scum. I'm willing to entertain the notion that I've misread him here, but only impatiently whilst tapping my foot and gesturing to it that it might a good idea to leave now.

Look back at what I quoted. He specifically called both Mert and Fritzler protown and said that Fritzler needed doc protecting for the rest of the game. His accuracy in that post was kind of frightening for so early in the game.

Oh, which reminds me. Stark/ether is town and ETHER NEEDS TO POST MORE. Seriously, she was drawing epic reactions from people.

Can you maybe elaborate on why you think that slot is so town? Also wondering why out of all the town reads you have, Gurgi and Ether are the only two you actually mention by name.

Oooh, well that makes a lot more sense. My bad.

You must have skimmed my post or something, because I also noted that inhim is a townread. I can't recall for sure if I mentioned anyone else, but I

meant

to mention that I have a townread on DGB. I also already mentioned that I have a townread on MBL. The rest, if they're not scummy or specifically mentioned in post, are null.

Shit like this post, where he picks out an interesting and unexplored point, suggest that he's looking at the game critically. I mean, even his attack on Ecto seems based on things that Ecto has said, in picking out the reasons and motivations behind Ecto's play. I also like his push on Ythill. There's not much more to say than that, I guess. I think also Ether has been pretty obvtown from the moment she replaced in - I think a non-town ether would have been far more uncritically accepting of Glork etc. - in particular, I don't see scumether backing off the moment I start explaining myself.

[Shanba]

[quote="Lord Gurgi"]Shanba: I don't see that much of a problem with defending people. I dislike mislynches. Also get a new avatar, this one is awful. Anyway, I don't get why you think HH is scum, I've been getting a town read on him for no particular reason. It just seems like he is town. Can you hear the drum beats? [/reference]/quote]
Eh. I've already explained why I think HH is scummy; I guess I can go into super extraordinary detail but he's about fourth on my list (and dropping since the misunderstanding over glork is cleared up). It doesn't seem worth it. He's gone back to null-ish.

Gurgi, don't get me wrong, defending people is great and awesome and all, but when it starts cutting into "looking for scumbaggos" time I think it becomes counterproductive, and I also think it's a way that lazy scum can appear to be contributing without putting in too much effort, since they only need read the posts relevant to the point that they're defending - similar to how lazy scum can end up wagonning a lot, or how lazy scum can end up tunneling pretty hard - true townies don't want to limit the scope of the game, because they need to be able to see everything in order to see what is scummy and shit. Scum can be much more lax. It's a weak scumtell though.

Meh. Clouded Leopards are cool. I might switch back to a frog soon.

[Shanba]

Which reminds me: DGBEEEE. What do you make of flameaxe/prozac?

[Shanba]

Which reminds me: DGBEEEE. What do you make of flameaxe/prozac?

I wish I had a nuclear warhead.

Yeah but, which is scummier? prozac/flameaxe or cdb?

[Shanba]

I find Ether's top 4 townie list thing vaguely amusing, in that each of them suspects at least two of the others in her top 4 list.

Yos needs to claim now.

Hey CES. Do you have a scumlist of some sort?

[Shanba]

So the problem I'm having at the moment is that you guys are posting faster than I can catch up. I requested replacement in a couple of games yesterday for the purpose of making sure I can stick with this one. I promised Patrick I wouldn't flake and so I am determined not to.

The wagon on me appears to be receding so I feel like claiming now would be a bit counter-productive (and I don't see any reason why it would affect DGB's view of me anyway). If I am wrong and more than, say, the four people still voting for me want me to, then I will.

How much have you read?

[Shanba]

So the problem I'm having at the moment is that you guys are posting faster than I can catch up. I requested replacement in a couple of games yesterday for the purpose of making sure I can stick with this one. I promised Patrick I wouldn't flake and so I am determined not to.

The wagon on me appears to be receding so I feel like claiming now would be a bit counter-productive (and I don't see any reason why it would affect DGB's view of me anyway). If I am wrong and more than, say, the four people still voting for me want me to, then I will.

How much have you read?

I got stuck at page 41 when CTD posted a huge tl;dr. Wading back in now.

And explain to me how you know the wagon on you is "receding".

If you've read up to page 41, surely you have some thoughts about the game up to that point that you can share. If not, why not?

[Shanba]

-Shanba supposedly started suspecting me during the ecto wagon yesterady, for a series of reasons that looks pretty scummy, even though shanba apparently agreed with my inital attack on ecto (and, in fact, accused me of "echoing him"). Despite not bothering to really defend Ecto at any point, or attack anyone else on the wagon; Shanba looks like scum who already knew Ecto was town, and was hoping to use that to go after me. Since then, he's pretty much just kept calling me scum without giving any real reasons for it.

This whole paragraph is pretty much just horse shit. Like, I have been continuously bringing up new shit against you And like, I did some serious defending of Ecto yesterday - not as much as I should, granted, but then yesterday I had a lot of other stuff taking up time.

[Shanba]

Ok, so I made about 18 posts yesterday, of which around half mention ecto. I mean, not all are full blown defences of him, but to accuse me of not focussing enough on ecto seems a really really strange thing to accuse me of.

There's a significant portion of my read on you to do with your attack on chamber, or rather your non-attack on chamber. I've tied that in to your reactions to ecto, because the two are related - you stopped talking about chamber to argue with ectomancer - but yeah. Also, would you prefer I continually posted cases against you so we can get into more big wall of post arguments? I have laid out my case, we've argued. Now I expect you to die. (Also in my recent big analysis post, I brought up at least two points against you wrt the chamber thing. I'm not sure you've read those posts.)

[Shanba]

would you prefer I continually posted cases against you so we can get into more big wall of post arguments? I have laid out my case, we've argued. Now I expect you to die. (Also in my recent big analysis post, I brought up at least two points against you wrt the chamber thing. I'm not sure you've read those posts.)

You laid out your case, I showed that your case was factually untrue, you said you "didn't want to argue with me" because "you were losing" but kept voting me anyway. Now you hope that the town will lynch me, ideally without thinking to much about the lack of reasons for why they should actually do that.

Man Yos, you're super bristly in this game. At no point did you demonstrate my case was factually untrue. I stopped arguing with you because it was becoming clear that the argument was an exercise in point scoring; in particular when you started accusing me of hypocrisy etc. I mean, here's your last post in the argument which I didn't bother to respond to:

[spoiler="More back and forth]I was going to quote Yos post in full, but apparently it was too long or some shit. CLICKY

1: the little insinuations comment was not about

whether

you thought I was scum, it was about the fact that you were simply making little snide remarks about how scummy me and my case were instead of coming out and giving a definitive: "This is why Shanba is scum" thing. Your misinterpretation of it allowed you to win the point without addressing the issue.

2: "So, you agree that" is generally a terribly manipulative rhetorical technique. I've never said that there weren't legit points against Ectomancer. I've said that the strength of the case was overstated, and that your approach to the wagon was horrifically scummy. To try and use my position on Ectomancer to weaken my overall argument is a way of winning the point without addressing the issue.

3: Scum have many different ways of approaching the wagon, and one of them is what you did. Essentially, they want the vote to not stick out. Whether they do that by assiduously laying a paper trail to start (like you) or just sneaking a vote on board is essentially irrelevant. Then there's some spin about how pro-town your approach was - you didn't spar with Ecto to see how he reacted. You accused him of not giving enough reads and got into a bullshit pages long theory argument against him whilst maintaining that he wasn't your top suspect before suddenly turning around and voting him. Right? THERE'S NO SOLID AND REASONABLE POINTS YOU HAD ON HIM BEYOND THE SCUMHUNTING THING. Like, seriously. WHere can I find these mythical points? I mean, you accuse him for OMGUS I guess? And you say you're weirded out by his hostility? Like, that's it. That's your whole case. There were so many words to repeat and reiterate these things about him over and over again that it made the case sound scarier than it was. So yeah, smoke and mirrors.

And no, it's not at all clear that it's the vague nature of his scumhunting that's caught your attention, since in the immediate follow-up you mention that the scumhunting he's done is "reasonable" but that the problem is "there just wasn't much of it". Right? And then in the next post where you're arguing with him you say "I have not attacked you for explaining your scum hunting methods; I've attacked you for not scumhunting." The key thing here? The thing Ecto was broadly trying to explain was why his reads were vague. And you are clearly stating that he is not doing enough scumhunting.

And I believe I accused you in the past of dismissing all the scumhunting he did and then saying he wasn't scumhunting. I was referring to the "OMGUS" attacks on you and MBL.

And it's not complete bullshit to say he's hardly alone in not scumhunting. Like, look at flameaxe's posts. Hell, look at my posts. Look at Untrod Tripod's posts. All contain substantially less scumhunting than Ectomancer up to the point where you suddenly start attacking Ecto. IH. CES. THe point being, Ecto's scumhunting

was

on the low side, but not UNUSUALLY so. So why did he get singled out? Why did he attract your attention? The most reasonable explanation is that he stood out more - which is also an explanation that points very strongly towards you being scum. I mean, compare it to when stark starts digging - Ecto barely stands out at all at that point. In other words, he's looking deeply at the game, trying to find who the scum are. Whereas you are NOT.

But anyway, it became clear that the argument was no longer about any of the things I wanted to talk about, it was instead becoming a game of "See if you can find a way to make Shanba's point look wrong". And no one reads these long wall of texts back and forth anyway. You clearly had no desire to try and understand what had caught my attention, and why I thought you were scummy. That's probably cause you're scum.[/spoiler]

In other news, happy holidays everyone (even Yosscum!)

[Shanba]

I dunno if I should be posting right now. Earlier when I was trying to formulate a response to Yos it just turned into a rant in my head. I dunno. Are you trying to bait me? Like, I have put serious spadework into these discussions too. It's not obviously untrue, if it were fucking obviously untrue then I wouldn't be fucking saying it would I. Jesus Christ Yos, this game, like, no one and I mean no one has been able to come up with an attack on you that you haven't immediately dismissed as stupid and laughable, but that's so fucking ridiculous. I mean, look at the fucking playerlist? Is everyone attacking you scum? Or are we all morons who can't see how townie you are? Or perhaps, just perhaps, you're just unable to accept that yeah, people do have a frigging point. You have spouted some insane little things this game - e.g. MBL not scumhunting, also e.g. some of your comments on chamber. You're probably just scum and I shouldn't rise to this, but hell.

What is it I'm not seeing? What the hell is it? You kept saying how much you were trying to understand Ectomancer, too, but that's patently untrue. He spent furfriggingever trying to explain why his scumhunting was only giving weak reads, but no one gave a shit. And then you just dismiss it saying "oh he was doc docs look like scum". Like wtf. I said it before and I'll say it again, the only reason I can see for you moving on to Ectomancer was the fact that he was making a fuss. Cause his scumhunting was simply not abnormally low in comparison with various others in the game. And you totally blanked on chamber. Go read that this again. WHY? WHY DID YOU SUDDENLY SHIFT FOCUS FROM CHAMBER TO ECTO? From your stated positions in the game, it makes no sense, none at all. Why did you not start pressuring other low content players? In brief, why switch and why ecto? Neither is clear. Neither is obvious.

Damn your manipulative little emotional outburst. Damn it to hell and back. Like what are you hoping to achieve with that? How dare you say I'm insulting you? I am not fucking insulting you. Your play this game IS SCUMMY. Like, there is no other way to describe it.

[Shanba]

There's no delete button. I wish I hadn't posted that. Yos, I'm sorry if I offended you. Anything in game is in game, right? I'm not scum. I dunno if you are. But you are scummy, legit, for reals.

[Shanba]

unvote

I need time to think.

[Shanba]

Shanba, why would you unvote before thinking there? its not like your vote on yos was very relevant atm anyway.

Because the thought I'm thinking is whether yos is scum.

[Shanba]

in a semi-drunken (but perhaps not quite as drunken as i ought to be) state I bid you all HAPPY NEW YEAAARR!

[Shanba]

Morning!

Shoulda done this yesterday after unvoting Yos, but

Vote: Ythill

better late than never.

Have we seriously not managed to hit scum yet. Surely we ought to have got there just by weight of dead by this point. And there are good scumhunters in this game, too. 18 players, what, 4 scum? Ether is deftown, MBL is deftown. Which still gives me a huge field to pick from. So too early for process of elimination then.

Top picks are Ythill/Prozac, below that persons of interest who I want to look at are CES, a little bit hackerhuck. Given I've probably not picked out all 4 scum there's gotta be someone I'm missing, so I guess eventually I'll have to look at people like Glrok who I have vague concerns about but about whom I have reservations about them being scum: Glork is now in this category, as is chamber, cdb. Lord Gurgi and CTD are pretty townie. And the guy who I've inevitably forgotten from this list is defscum.

Hum. Inevitably the townreads die. How

annoying.

OH HEY PRE-POST EDIT

unvote ythill vote prozac

[Shanba]

[muse]4/18 are scum, pick 6 without replacement, what is the prob that all 6 are town[/muse]

[Shanba]

Reasons?

I do indeed have reasons.

[Shanba]

Hi, I see you're all voting me. You should probably stop that, given, you know, I'm town and shit.

Prozac, is there any reason that you had to reread after reading the game for the first time? It seriously put a dent in your contributions. Also, why did it take you so long to do the reread in the first place?

Flameaxe's aren't even worthy of the name. And yet, no one really went after him? Why not? He/you was an easy target if you're town. And inhim was even pushing him, hence giving cover for any scum votes. Seemed particularly blatant when everyone started grumbling about cdb, yet your slot was pretty much ignored.

[Shanba]

Ether, I need help. I know you think glork is town, but why?

[Shanba]

Ether, I need help. I know you think glork is town, but why?

[Shanba]

OK.

On the claims: I believe Ythill's. The two cop claims are iffier - I'm inclined to believe CTD's (lol) but am not so certain on glorks. Cop is a powerful role. Two full on cops? And then the idea that Ether is floating that he's insane and both his innocents are scum seems a little iffy to me. At any rate, given that suggestion, there should be no way that we lynch glork today. People suggesting it are dumb - I am 99% sure we're not in lylo and anyway we have a vig (or at least an sk) so yeah.

In the back of my mind I have a vague pricking about glork cop telling me there's important meta I need to remember. Glork, have you been cop before? Or fakeclaimed cop as scum? I definitely remember someone who used to obfuscate their town results by continuing to prod them gently; I just don't recall if that was glork or not. Regardless, setup speculation says "hmm" on the glork claim.

Striking out my strong townreads and the claims/claimed innocent results gives me this:
Porochaz, CES, lord gurgi, cdb, chamber.

That's pretty nice. I'd quite like to sub in hackerhuck as possible godfather (in a game of many cops, I'd guess we probably have a godfather) as that would allow me to take out weak town reads gurgi and chamber leaving ces, prozac, cdb and hackerhuck.

If glork is town, we're very close to just straight up winning this game. I think today we should lynch from the pool of unknowns, possibly get another result from glork or if not he dies and any sanity doubts/is he scum doubts are lifted; both possibilities which are good for us. CTD is playing more classical cop. I need glork's meta in the event that he lives.

[Shanba]

Like, I have put serious spadework into these discussions too. It's not obviously untrue, if it were fucking obviously untrue then I wouldn't be fucking saying it would I.

I think Shanba was legitimately annoyed and used that.

Let's ask Shanba: could you've typed something like that as scum, Shanba?

I think so. Not sure, but probably. I might end up going all "ugh that looks so fake" and not posting it, and I might feel bad about trying to emotionally manipulate people.

[Shanba]

MBL, stop being paranoid. The rest of you, prozac is a better lynch than glork for reals. I mean, I keep going back and forth on whether glork is scum or not (I might end up just sheeping ether tbh) but that's irrelevant. If he is a cop, then he's hugely valuable. If he's scum, it's meh. And prozac is probably scum anyway.

[Shanba]

Maybe, ces, but I'm not sure it even matters. I mean, if we lynched glork and he came up town cop, I'd assume we lynch whoever was going to be our compromise candidate today - that is, prozac. Like, I don't see the info from that lynch changing anything. And in that situation, it's clearly better to have lynched prozac first as we have an extra cop investigation. If glork is scum, then maybe one of the "off limit innocents" gets lynched instead, or maybe the info form that lynch leads to a differnt lynch, but I'm far from certain about that; we may well still end up lynching prozac anyway. If we're going to definitively 100% lynch prozac and glork, it clearly makes sense to lynch prozac first and glork second. If you think the info we gain from lynching glork will mean that we don't lynch prozac tomorrow, then there's value in lynching glork first. But I'm not entirely convinced that's the case.

Hrm. CES, who do you think would be a likely Glorkscum partner? Also, I totally agree with massclaim. Ideally I want ythill or ctd to pick the order as I have faith in their claims.

(oh and as an afterthought, if you're an sk and ythill is claiming your kills, you should probs kill him tonight. Cause he'd be scum, and you're as much in danger from scum as town is.)

(also as an afterthought, I'm getting increasingly freaked out by people setting me up as a godfather already. Both hackerhuck and mbl have done it. Errrrgh... I doubt both are scum under any circumstances (glork town only one can be gf, glrok scum he cleared two of his buddies really?), but it's certainly making me antsy. I don't want to be lynched as a cop confirmed innocent to lose the game, that would suck donkey balls, and if scum think I'm vulnerable under that kind of reasoning, they'd probably start pushing it soon.)

[Shanba]

Massclaim is optimal at day before lylo. Tomorrow we could have 50/50s with counterclaims. Massclaim today means we can afford to lynch both.

[Shanba]

I should add to my scumplay that I don't kill all my scumpicks. More of these things I assume are implicit. I figure I'll wait until my reads solidify. At least I admit that I have shit for reads. That no one else is admitting the same despite the current wagons is telling, Ether. I'm liking CES less and less this page, as he's just correcting people.

Do you have any reads at all?

[Shanba]

Just a thought, but everyone waiting p. much means stagnation.

[Shanba]

Easy people is Prozac and CDB, our lurkers. The people you're talking about are not cleared, but if you're talking about lynching on the presupposition that all claims are true, then sure I suppose you could say that. Chamber is my default lynch. I'd snap his neck any day.

I was going to say that chamber is as big a lurker as any of those, but then I realised that he actually has more posts than me. How the hell did that happen.

[Shanba]

I got a really subversive idea. Whisper it quietly, but I'm strongly considering a no lynch. SHHHH don't tell anyone!

[Shanba]

For the record: the entire point of a no lynch was an extra result for the case where glork is town. Essentially, CES is 100% right here.

Besides, we're evens. We'll have to do it at some point.

[Shanba]

I guess that puts me up for claim.

I'm vanilla.

Looking at the people who have indicated that Glork made a scum-slip, he's well within lynch range right now.

Chamber - thoughts on Porochaz?

Ythill - why are you so opposed to the thought of a GF? It's not like Shanba's been a beacon of towniness this game.

I'm vanilla. Also, grumpy.

Huck, why's Shanba scum, and conversely, why's MBL town?

For starters, I'm not saying that Shanba is scum. I totally agree with the point that Ythill made, which was why I moved my vote from him to Porochaz. I was simply asking Ythill why he kept slapping down any mention of GF when talking about the results we've been given.

I'm going to give you the fluff version of why MBL is town now, because I'm too tired right now to go back through the thread and pluck examples. I have liked his scum-hunting so far and I feel that he has picked up on some good points. I'd also say that I recall scum MBL being a little more directive in leading the town down a path without making it look like he was really driving the wagon. His lack of voting has concerned me a little bit, but I don't feel like he's really been driving any wagons yet.

The hell. /Weirded out.

I'm coming around to the idea of just lynching glork, though I'm still kinda iffy about it. We'll see. Ether is still town, by the way, guys. Glorkglorkglorkglork... hrm. I want that analysis. Gief plox.

Yes, Im wondering why you are doing all the defending for him. It doesn't really reflect well on either of you.

Is a super scummy post. Like, wtf.

[Shanba]

By weirded out, I mean that Hackerhuck's probing about me reads scummy.

My issue right now is that I'm nigh convinced CTD is town, and I'm not sure that there's going to be two cops in the same game. That's a lot of power. By the same token, Glrok's been relatively scummy this game. And yet, my gut has rebelled against the idea that he's scum, and I'm sitting here with one foot in both camps going back and forth over whether we should lynch him.

I think in general, there's a number of scum amongst our "unknowns" anyway. Prozac is pretty damn scummy, CES is iffy and cdb/chamber are both low content could-go-either-way-on type peoples, (and even Gurgi who I think is fairly townish could conceivably be scum) to the extent where I'd be surprised if there weren't multiple scumbags in that list. I guess something like CES-Prozac-Glork-Hackerhuck is possible. If Glork is town, it's something like Prozac-CES-chamber-cdb lurkerscum group I guess.

[Shanba]

This

For starters, I'm not saying that Shanba is scum.

is what bugged me. Why are you backing off? I know people think I'm scummy (though I'm not sure entirely why, beyond "OMG GLORK IS BUSSING HIM"/"HE'S LURKING"/"HE MADE SOME POSTS AND SAID HE WAS SLEEP DEPRIVED, OMG"), and I accept that you might want to try and convince him to consider me as a scum suspect - but in that case, why then back off? It's not like you're gonna get any useful reactions from the

uncounterclaimed vig

. It looks like more groundwork being laid to accuse me of being GF later on. Call me paranoid, but you're the third person to do something like that.

[Shanba]

I'd like a prozac or a hackerhuck lynch today. I'm not picky.

[Shanba]

Shanba, please dazzle me with your genius. Which of Porozac or Huck is more likely scum, and why? Bonus points if your answer invokes the words "Glork" "Glorked" or "Glrok".

Sidenote: I'm vaguely amused by the portmanteau of porochaz and prozac.

The thing is, they're both sufficiently close in scumminess that I'm finding it hard to make a distinction. Gun to my head, I'd pick Hackerhuck, I think. Both players have somehow managed to float mostly under the radar in a game where there've been a number of lurkerwagons, and that's particularly worrying in prozac's case because he's been one of the worst offenders - both him and his predecessor were low content. Beyond that? I dunno. His reread is solid-ish. I'm not thrilled with his inhim push, either, particularly the idea that the nurse fakeclaim should be an autolynch. Honestly, I see more townies who declaim than scum. In general town are far more brazen in doing whatever the hell they feel like - with the exception of a few players. But yeah.

Hackerhuck pricked my scumdar originally for something that I'd just misunderstood. Thing is though, despite him having made a decent number of posts, I can't remember what he's really been thinking. For me that's a bad sign. I also don't like the way he was beating around the bush on Glork. I also don't like that as soon as Ctd claimed he's pretty much reinforcing the idea that I'm a godfather with every post. In general, townies don't immediately think GODFATHER on a cop investigated innocent unless they strongly believe that guy is scum. And then there's the way he went about it generally - he's not out and out stating I'm godfather, he's going "oh ythill, you mustn't forget shanba is a gf", "oh, in this scumlist I have shanba as a possible gf". I mean, if you look back through his post history, he has like a few posts detailing why he thinks I'm scummy, but there's not a lot of passion in there. Essentially, il y a quelque chose qui cloche.

[Shanba]

I don't think ether and MBL should be fighting as I think you're probably both still town.

Ether, why would you think that CES would kill anyone except the practically confirmed innocent? And why would you think that on suggesting such a thing, he wouldn't just be overruled by his buddies?

[Shanba]

Ether, why would you think that CES would kill anyone except the practically confirmed innocent? And why would you think that on suggesting such a thing, he wouldn't just be overruled by his buddies?

Do you think CTD will be killed Tonight? If yes, don't you agree that scum could reasonably switch the Ythill and CTD kills?

P.S. I'm waiting for HackerHuck to get strung up.

I spose they could, but I considered Ythill more confirmed than CTD and I assumed the scum would too. Hm.

Vote: Hackerhuck

[Shanba]

Hey MBL

you've asked a lot of questions today and quoted a lot of information. Where exactly are you going with it all? What's your current thoughts on the game?

[Shanba]

It cracks me up that anyone would criticize me for asking questions in a game where people aren't saying all that much, just plunking down their votes.

I'm not criticising you, I just feel... well we're down to the lurkers and you. If you're not providing tons of content, we're gonna be short of content. So baiting you into a post like that is brilliant.

I think Ether has played horribly as town or brilliantly as scum. Scratch that. She had some decent early opinions on CTD, DGB, Ythill, Shanba, Yos, albeit with minimal evidence stated. Lots of town reads, not many scum reads. Seemed to be reading people's posts thoughtfully. I didn't like that she tried to stop DGB from vigging. She protected Glork all day. She's had lots of town reads and no consistent strong scum reads except Huck. If he's scum, she's probably town, as she's tried to bury him for a few days now. I don't really like how when Glork claimed and CTD countered, she tried to fit everything into her view on Glork instead of following the evidence. Glork HAD to be town, so Huck was no longer a top suspect, so Porochaz became her top suspect, and she suddenly became willing to lynch me, who she'd recently found townish. Annoying or scummy. Definitely annoying, and if not scummy then just a very different way than I play.

All of this I would summarise as "reasons ether is town", to be honest. I've never seen her go all out on finding scum; she's much more likely to find a bunch of people she thinks are town and maybe one or two scumreads, at least from my experience with playing with her. Her early game when she just replaced in was like super super townish - I think she's been coasting on that a little since, and I'd like to see her stepping it up again, but I'm not seeing her as scum. That's despite some reads I'd categorise as odd, particularly with regards to both you and CES.

In general, I just don't see how much of her plays make sense as scum. It's one thing to go all "yeah my scumbuddy is pro-town" but to do so in the face of mass opposition seems real iffy. And then to get all equivocal about him when he's getting lynched instead of finding some bs reason to bus is roughly what I'd expect from a townie. There's no fake bravado, anyway. Like how you were pushing to get another analysis post from him (and crucially voting him when he didn't deliver) - I reckon that was probably an indication (if only a weak one) that you're town. Conscientious, making sure, probably have some doubts cause you're a townie. I mean, from someone like glork I'd expect bravado, but from someone like Ether I expect self doubt and that's what happened.

Hackerhuck at this point could be reading a different game to me for all his reads make any sense. Like, of the uncleareds the people I would be least likely to want to lynch are Ether, Gurgi and MBL, followed at a distance by chamber. Making the only read we agree on being MBL. That doesn't inspire me with confidence - I expect to at least be able to feel where a townie is coming from. Frankly I just want him dead at this point. He's likely scum. I can kinda see how one would see ether/chamber/gurgi as scummy, but if you're nitpicking hard enough to see that shit why would you not be all over the likes of prozac and cdb? I guess one scum in that group is not an earth shattering conclusion, but it's a head scratching one. His reasons are there, but a little off. Like, he didn't mention the other people at all in that thought process, and I don't see why he thinks the Mert wagon would necessarily split votes or anything. Eh. I'm not a huuuge fan of votecount analysis anyway.

Today we desperately need contributions from our lurkers. Like real bad. I mean, what if we had an endgame of something like prozac/chamber/cdb or similar - how the hell would any two townies make a decision there? HOw would any townie choose between cdb, prozac, chamber and gurgi? I have reads on them but they're not strong reads. It's been hard to even come to a decision on Hackerhuck, and he's posted a lot more content than those guys.

CDB, if you're town and you want town to win you have to step it up now. NO PRESSURE.

[Shanba]

Don't bother with vote count analysis. Just get some thoughts on a page. Votecount analysis doesn't tell us anything about YOU.

[Shanba]

OH also MBL I picked on you cause you'd just posted so I figured you were online.

[Shanba]

Shanba, why are Gurgi and MBL town?

Gurgi is just an absence of evidence thing, more or less. Plus although his contributions are under par, when he

has

contributed it's generally been of a higher standard than the other lurkers. The net result is that I feel like of the lurkers, he's the least likely to be scum. I'm not sure if he's even a lurker really, except for the fact that recently he's been absent.

MBL I just don't see how people see him as scum. I AM a sucker for the !EFFORT! types, but just generally he's had a habit of being right about things. You know when you're reading a game or playing a game and some guy is just obvtown? It's like that with MBL, but weaker. Like, I'm sure if I went through his iso and stuff I'd find things that would make me doubt and other things that would reinforce my view, but I'm pretty content with my gut read on him.

[Shanba]

Statistically speaking, even assuming MBL scum and Glork as the only scum in those five, I would have been better off looking at the 9 survivors that lynched Mert. I obviously exclude myself from those nine, so that's trying to find 2 scum in 8 people versus 1 in 5.

It's this bit I don't get.

[Shanba]

Meh. That's...not really how I felt about my Day 2 play. I know you said I got epic reactions, but to me those were just by-products of a dark time when Patrick was politely asking me every few days if I needed to be replaced. When you're flailing around helplessly in the water trying not to drown, ripples happen, you know?

I think it was more that you started asking questions at a time when most people were just stating conclusions. As a result, you were able to sort of disrupt established patterns of thought, which is probably in general a good thing for town. I mean, it did make me question a glorkscum read I had, but eh, I feel like it was helpful to me anyway. I was completely fixated on yos at that point and I didn't feel I was communicating my ideas well, and your questioning was the thing that helped me get it across. Moreover, if Glork had been town I think that would have been the moment that he stopped and re-evaluated too. That's just a feel thing though. It was just helpful generally, and if you're a townie that's at least somethign useful you can do if you're flailing, and it shows that you're at least semi-interested in the game.

I like question asking, and I also don't mind that he's waiting to give conclusions. In fact, the fact that he instantly gave a whole slew of responses makes me feel really really good about him - he's had to have had that stuff prepared in his mind ahead of time, which kind of shoots down the idea that he's scum avoiding giving opinions. It feels like he's thinking about and analysing the game, and the questions are a result of that.

[Shanba]

Man even just skimming back a bit there's so much that should have tipped me off about glork. Like the fritz kill for instance. Only one guy was shouting from the rooftops about how townish fritzler looked and that was glork. Hindsight is 20:20 I suppose.

Anyway I'm going to bed now (after this post to blatantly inflate my post count and make me feel less bad about my lurkiness). Any more questions for me will be addressed tomorrow. Weird the spurts of activity this thread is having now - I'mma have to think about that.

Final thoughts: what do people make of chamber? Thinking back, I'm getting kinda edgy about him. I need to reread him tomorrow and also check out deadyostown's posts about him to see if he had a point.

[Shanba]

Hey Prozac I didn't say fakeclaim, I said declaim. That's partially experience, but I also have a theory that for pretty much all risky play, it's more likely to come from a townie than from a scum cause scum in general are more worried about being lynched. That's just what I feel though.

Quite stunningly, porochaz managed to go through that exchange with ether and

not

give any opinions on who he thought was scummy. I'm actually rather impressed.

Hey. Hey prozac. What do you make of Hackerhuck, chamber and Channeldelibird?


FLIMSY. DONT YOU DARE VANISH ON ME NOW I'M FINALLY STARTING TO UP MY ACTIVITY LEVELS RARGH

[Shanba]

I'm here. I have a half-finished post on Huck that's been sitting around for two days, and I'm holding off on finishing it until I take the time to get it right, but I don't think that really helps the situation so I'll just paste it as is and then finish my rereads and revise and extend my remarks later.

Huck's reads have been low quality. He played a bunch of mumbo-jumbo with votecounts like Ythill did, but less insightful. He did make some observations here and there that made it clear he was reading the thread looking for distinctions in scummy/townish play. His D1 reads were very light--Ecto townish, chamber meh, Yos Ythill mildly scummy. For whatever reason, he read me and inHim townish and pushed Mert instead of me or inHim D1--he could have left the lurker as lynchbait the next day and gotten rid of an active townie. Hypothesis: maybe he couldn't afford to be on the Glork-led MBL wagon. Hypothesis: Maybe Glork wanted inHim alive as a pawn. Hypothesis: maybe he was lazy town but had a good town read or two.

First analysis post of D2 fairly shitty. Goes after the idle Stark with vigor, puts Glork solidly in the middle even though he disagrees with all his suspicions (MBL). Also appears to throw a sideways compliment at Glork for pegging the Mert and Fritzler alignments, which seems out of place. Defends Glork on meta from Sly Cooper. Very thin analysis of Glork considering Glork's activity D1--no further mention of Glork's terrible push on me/Ecto? Draws a little too much attention to the fact that no one likes his Ether/starkvote. "The comments on the Mert wagon are also concerning. The scum had to be nervous when that wagon came up so fast." is odd. Cites me as confirmation for his Shanba-Yos beliefs. Hiding behind a townie to justify his wagoning on Shanba? Says he's interested in going after those who were pushing my lynch D1, but doesn't go after Glork/DGB? Uses "must have been some busers" as the basis for an analysis that yields:

ChannelDelibird (1) -- Flameaxe

as a possible scumpair. http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 2#p2687152

Keep an eye on that:

Based on my last post, I'd consider moving to Porochaz, but I'm happier with my vote on Shanba. I'm not in favor of the CDB wagon, since it just looks like a lurker-lynch at this point.

Possible protection of CDB, possible attempt to distance from Porochaz, but ultimately leaves vote on a (townie?)

Weird post on IH/DGB/CTD scumpair

Goaded me on inHim, seems to have been pushing me to vote him, takes a 6 day break, manages to cast suspicion on both the Yos voters and the inHim voters (says im over the top). And dings Yos for not hammering inHim. Only gets on inHim after the bad fakeclaim.

Very claim-focused. Ythill talking vig. Curious about inHim's crumbed role.

Tries to tie me to Ythill when I leave my vote off inHim a while.

I think it's important to get the real support/opposition registered against the InHim lynch so that his flip will have some meaning.

Good point, but note that Glork already registered his opposition, so this would be a safe thing to do if they know inHim is town.

Day three, seems to analyze the Glorkclaim reasonably, definitely pushes for a Poro lynch over a Glork lynch, cites the meaningless argument on behalf of Glork:

I'm also going from the perspective that even if scum, Glork has correctly called two people as innocents. I know I am, and I've felt that MBL is as well.

Unless my logic is bad, I don't think the correctness of Glork's calls has any bearing on the validity of his claim.

Huck mentions me in 23 of 61 posts. And has thought I'm town most of that time. What's up with that? Lil bit stalker-ey. Possible scum management of a dangerous townie.

Ok, that's the post, half-finished. Conclusion on Huck? Not sure. Shanba, you read my Ether summary and told me I was missing the correct conclusion--that she's probably town. Take a stab at this post. Read anything between the lines? My gut instinct is that CDB has played scummier, but that Huck is definitely scummy. I'll need to read Porochaz and Huck again to ascertain relative scumminess of the two. CES, I dunno. The way he thought "Glork-Shanba was a scumpair but pushed Shanba because Glork could either be right or busing" really rubs me the wrong way but he's also done a few townish tone things so I'd probably put Huck as scummier than CES.

I told myself I'd look at who's protected who over the course of the game, and that we'd probably find the scum by finding four people who've all protected each other at one time or another. Not consistently, necessarily, but at pivotal times when they thought a nudge might keep the focus elsewhere. I'll start that by reviewing Glork's posts for protection, and work my way out from there.

The key things I think about Hackerhuck's play are the poor reads. It's one thing to be

wrong

, to make mistakes, it's another to have bad analysis/reasoning for your reads. I think the latter is significantly scummier. Particularly, I'm not seeing that he has any feel for the game in the way I might expect a good townie to - there's no sense of

when something happens

, he turns around and goes "whoa, what was that!" All the analysis he did, more or less, is rereading the thread. I think this is an indication of scumminess - I think town react far more to what's going on than scum do, and it's been setting off my gut for a while."

There is some immediate reacting going on, but when it happens it's fairly blunt. Like with inhim, he just goes "oh your claim is scummy

vote inhim

." I think that's honestly fairly opportunistic, and I think a townier approach to the wagon would involve more "WTF" and less "OMG VOTE INHIM". I'd note there's very little emotion in his play, but that there's also little of the in depth analysis that non-passionate players (the likes of vollkan etc.) tend to thrive on. It could be a playstyle thing, but it feels totally off.

His reads have been the same since pretty much his first post of day 2 - in particular, he's thought me and ether are scummy since his first votecount analysis thingy of that day. MBL, have your reads been the same since then? And yet he's not tunneling on us exactly. Sometimes people get locked into a viewpoint where they go "rah x is scum and damn the consequences I am gonna lynch the bastard" but then they tend to be actively pursuing the guy for as long as the madness lasts. People with weaker, less passionate reads tend to be more likely to let go. It's rare, I think, for someone to think that a person is scummy, get convinced that someone else is scummier and lynch them, and then go back to having the first guy as a mid level suspect, which is roughly how I'd characterise his play.

CDB I'm less worried about, because I expect a degree of lurkiness to his play, and moreover his lurkiness feels less under the radar than hacker's. Hacker, when he's disappeared, has kinda done it in a way that's not noticeable, so he's still regularly posting but at a slow rate. CDB has been almost blatant about it, which makes me less inclined to believe it has scum motivations. Besides, meta tells me CDB is a regular and notorious lurker. I also haven't seen that much in his play that makes me go "yuk", whereas there are definite elements of that in hacker's play.

This is a post made mostly by my gut and theorycrafting. Logical rational shit doesn't come into it much here because a lot of my read on hackerhuck

is

gut and this is my attempt to quantify it.

[Shanba]

I think the wagon stalling has more to do with people simply not

being here

, not scum deliberating about hack's wagon.

I'm actually somewhat disturbed by my company on the wagon, if I'm totally honest. The three people I trust most are not on the wagon. As such I'm seriously considering swapping over to prozac...

not so much cdb, though I can see where the wagon's coming from.

[Shanba]

what are you getting out of that, mbl? I note you're voting cdb.

[Shanba]

Not gonna lie, Ectomancer did play a very odd game. Not sure he was shafted so much as dug his own grave - and I say this as someone who was pretty adamant he was town. Actually that whole wagon was super annoying. Like, there were loads of people being roughly vague and not giving many scumreads or whatever - the only thing making ecto stick out was his theory stuff and the fact that he got into an argument with yos, thus making him more visible than the alternatives. All those things conspired to make him frankly a pretty easy target, and although he was ok for a day one wagon (I GUESS) I still think it was poor that we forced him to claim that early. Every game I play from day 1 onwards has the same pattern - someone says or does something that makes them stick out, town wagons them (and possibly lynches them) and they flip town. At least defending someone gets me into the game day 1, I suppose. Ecto was by the standards of this game the day one VI lynch (even though he wasn't lynched).

It also masked some other important shit. Flameaxe and Untrod Tripod both played very scummy day ones that got lost in the sound and fury. That was partially my fault though, after I picked that fight with yos. I wish I hadnt done that, although at least it allowed me to get a solid read on Yos eventually. Anyway, a scumbag should have died by day 2, in all honesty. At that point there were even a number of townie who were on the right track, we just managed to either lynch them, vig them or ignore them.

I'm not sure about the whole glork/ctd copclaim thing. Other people had the right idea at least, but I guess I'm a bit naturally cautious for those situations. I don't see how the glork lynch really helped the scum that much. To me it made ether even more obvious town (if that were possible). It looks like the scum had criminally poor communication from the quicktopic. There's no planning, no assessment of threats, no power role hunting, nothing except a "who do we kill tonight?" "Ok the confirmed townie".

I scumhunted poorly, but I'm still surprised people thought I was scum. A lot of that was quintessential shanbatown tbqh. Anyhoo, glad town pulled through in the end and it was a lot of fun (except for exchanging walls with yos <.<).