New York 146 Zach's Insane Mafia World (OVER)

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD – I’ll be LA from today at 4:30pm EDT until Monday AM for my usual weekend family duties.

--

MoI - You get my first question. I asked this to you before in the neighborhood and you went all evadey not really answering it in a way that makes sense, so here again:

Um postgame we can hash out who went ‘evadey’ in the QT.

The fact that right after fitz got hammered your immediate response was “Lulz, kill me” and basically stating that you didn’t want to discuss anything combined with your day-posts that whole day that I have previously described as “Look at me I’m Town Town Town” doesn’t sit well with me.

MoI - You posted this in the neighborhood on 4/9 "Also - for the record I'm not 100% sold on the existence of a Serial Killer. I think Tammy is probably the best bet for scum (no matter what flavor) so that is where my vote is."

You changed your vote from me to DY on 4/11 after the mod cleared up the issue that made it more likely that I wasn't SK. However, this statement would suggest that you believed I was mafia anyway. Your change of vote from me to DY indicated that it was based on my SK status getting cleared up. If your vote on me wasn't based solely on the belief of me being SK, why would Magua's change of vote and my status of SK being rather unlikely be enough for you to change your vote from me? You had already stated in an earlier post that Snake was your top choice for mafia out of the VT's, so why didn't you keep pushing that?

So what questions are you asking here. Let’s see …

1. Let me go restore the QT to my active list and quote my response to you –

The vote and posturing was 100% pressure based. Snake had coasted far too long and I'll be frank ... the time had passed where I could keep giving him a pass and not try to dig into his alignment. Dropping a vote on him and making him my 'top suspect' was my recourse. It actually paid dividends once Magua jumped on-board with his "Snake flake" theory. Your responses and play surrounding the wagon didn't strike me as "Scum caught for the wrong reason" as Magua elaborated on.

At this stage I'm leaning on his gut regarding calling you Town a bit also.

So whether you accept what I am saying is up to you. Trying to say I avoided it not really accuratein the least.

I'm still waiting on an answer to this question as well MoI.

What answer are you waiting on? Seriously. Of course I didn’t ‘forget’ my fitz read. The question is clearly stated in such a way that only one answer comes regardless of my aligment.

So my question to you is – should I not have had more than 1 scum read?

Jason was lynched Day 4. On Day 5 the day started with Darth (who was a scum read of mine – you may want to discount it based on his later flip but I found his play suspect Day 1 and Day 2 and the Town PR spread indicated he could easily have been faking the FBI Agent as the safest information role-claim) having failed to make his agreed upon scan and another Night of 1 kill only in the books. The fact that fitz was a scum-read doesn’t obligate me to attack him only. Darth was a bigger scum read at the time.

Snake returned with yet more play that didn’t given any indication of Town perspective so I voted him as explained above. Soon after Magua replaces in and leads further pressure on the slot. Here are some of the QT posts we made back and forth after that to remind you –

Ok, feel free to think that. I'm not going to argue this with you since you can just read my response to Darth in thread when he floated the same things.

Scum is 1 of - Darth / redFF

Scum is 1 to 2 of - Snake / Having / NS with an outside shot at Jon.

Alice is as Mod confirmed Town as you can get barring some major fuckcluster where we have two Mafia factions yet have only had 1 kill a Night.

You are about 95% Town. Ghostlin's play was solid and Pro-Town and the proven claim means you are likely only scum if we are in 13-5.

So, I don't think you're mafia.

But I'm still like 25% that you're the SK. Which I do think exists.

Still, even if you're the SK, you want to help lynch the Mafia. So let's do that.

I don't see how a 5-man scumteam is balanced in 18 player. Town would lose after 4 mislynches but would have to lynch correctly 5 times to win -- 10v3 is town loses after 4 mislynches and needs 3 correct to win, so it would essentially be 10v3 but *harder*.

4-man scumteam+SK or 3-man scumteam+SK both seem possible and are what I'm looking at.

havingfitz actually fits, from the vote counts, in being a scum-member, but I totally don't get that from reading his posts. Maybe he simply is scum and I don't give him enough credit, treating him too much like a newbie. The other top scumreads tend to have problems because it involves them bussing in situations that already look bad for them -- redFF, DeasVail are both on IaI D3 in a position where it looks pretty much exactly like jason is going to get lynched D4. Really have a hard time seeing redFF in that position; maybe DeasVail could do it.

So Magua I find Town. And he has clearly no interest in pushing having as he had a Town read on the slot. But he didn’t on Darth (as much as he thought the possibility of a Scum FBI Agent was viable). So once I followed his lead to it’s conclusion on your slot I went back to my most viable candidate … Darth.

And Deas ends up taking the rope. Are you suggesting I wasn’t working in a Town fashion in working with my strongest Town read (outside of Alice, who also supported Darth as scum) to lynch Darth (incorrectly, but for valid reasons IMO).

So then Day 6 dawns and clearly redFF is the Serial Killer. Should I have not voted for him that day?

That leads us to yesterday where Having takes the rope.

I’d really like you to summarize why you find my behavior suspect. Also please keep it independent of NS’s behavior.

Still waiting on an answer for this too. Of course you don't need to answer about Fitz, but why were you voting Yoshi while saying that Having was mafia scum? Did you forget the day before you said you'd be pushing Fitz if it weren't for Jason being scum?

I think the above is answered also but let me know if you don’t feel it is.

CES's death makes it less likely to me that Nobody Special is the killer. He had every reason to keep CES alive. I stated in one of my last posts that I was suspecting him, and CES stated in one of his last posts that MoI was the last killer. Nobody Special's best chance of winning this was to leave CES alive.

CES's death makes the most sense for MoI as a killer, but I keep getting hung up on Magua's night kill. I guess from a technical standpoint it makes sense for him to night kill Magua as he was pretty much PI'd by all of us and MoI wouldn't be able to hide behind him. BUT Magua also had a town read on MoI, and with so many people suspecting MoI it seems like a dangerous thing to kill someone who had a town read on you. The safer thing I think would have been to night kill CES on the night he killed Magua then try to get NS lynched yesterday. Based on things said here and in the neighborhood, I think that would have been a plausible strategy. <-----BUT, I get tripped up on things like this all the time.

FUCK. (Someone take me back to midgame where it's nice and cozy and I'm somewhat effective.)

My question to you on this (regarding kills after the danger Powerroles were taken out) –

Does Magua dying benefit me in any way by framing anyone else? Does Magua dying hurt me?

Does CES dying benefit Nobody in any way by framing anyone else? Does CES dying hurt Nobody?

[MagnaofIllusion]

My next step, with questions removed, is to look at both your slot's ISOs in context of all the dead scum. I'll be doing that either over the weekend or after I get back from LA. I'll have questions for you both then.

[Tammy]

I'm going to respond in fits and bursts starting with the questions about the kills as they've been what I've been mulling over the most lately.

The CES death is probably the easiest to answer. CES dying does not hurt Nobody as far as I'm concerned. I'm not sure I follow what you mean about it benefitting him by way of framing anyone else. Granted I'm not the most experienced player, but I've never seen a killer at or near endgame make a kill that wouldn't be beneficial to him in order to frame someone else. I don't know that I'd be able to follow that thought process. From my point of view, I was the best night kill Nobody Special could make. I stated that I was suspicious of both you and Nobody Special and said that CES was the one I felt best about. CES stated just before NS hammered that you were the final scum. I don't see the purpose in not taking the one person who didn't express any suspicions of you and stated that the other person was the final scum. The safest thing for Nobody Special to do would be to leave CES alive.

[Tammy]

CRAP I'm lying. I told you I've only made it to the final five once before. I spent most of the day clearing the final killer for some really brilliantly stupid reasons. Well, the reasons were actually good; they were just flawed. Anyway, the original plan for the killer was to withhold the kill and let me give him the game in the final four. He changed his mind and killed me as a favor...to put me out of my misery he said...and decided to use my death to frame someone else.

That is the only time I've seen someone kill someone who had a strong innocent read on them in order to frame someone at endgame though. I'm used to seeing killers play it far safer.

CRAP. I hate endgame.

[Tammy]

Um postgame we can hash out who went ‘evadey’ in the QT.

The fact that right after fitz got hammered your immediate response was “Lulz, kill me” and basically stating that you didn’t want to discuss anything combined with your day-posts that whole day that I have previously described as “Look at me I’m Town Town Town” doesn’t sit well with me.

This is utter bullshit and you know it. Yes, I told you to night kill me in the QT. You said you were holding the night to dump information into the QT. I asked you if you were trying to decide who to take to endgame then. Because honestly, I can't see any other reason to hold night. I voted for an early end to the night. Why? Because I'm town and didn't need the night to be extended. Your accusation that I was funneling information was so lulzy I don't even know what to say about it.

Did I state I didn't want to discuss anything? Or did I state:

"

I don't really know what to say in here right now as I'm still trying to figure you out.

I don't trust you MoI; I made that clear. ...

Quite frankly I have no problem continuing to work in the QT to figure out who the remaining killer is

, but seeing as how I think there's a really good chance you are it it's tricky. I don't want to tell you what I think of what's transpired over the past couple of days because I don't want it to influence who you kill if you are the last killer."

Did I not then also tell you that if you truly believed I was the last killer that the last thing you should be doing is dumping info into the QT? You know what? I'm no where near as experienced in this game as you are, but even to me it seemed odd that you would be planning to dump info into the QT if you believed I was a killer. Again, the fact that you even planned to do it, tells me that you know I'm not a killer.

*whatever*

Yeah, you've described the posts as "Look at me I'm town town town." I have no idea what you mean? Do you mean me going through the ISO and asking you and everyone else questions about their actions? You know what you're supposed to do to find scum? Are you actually faulting me for trying to find answers? Because if so, well damn you don't have good enough emoticons here, suffice it to say rofl doesn't cover it. If you're talking about our conversation in the QT, well then you're just misinterpreting or reading things however you would like to and not actually paying attention to what I said. Why don't you read it again slowly and you'll see what I actually meant. Guess what, I have no ulterior motives here. Stop looking for them or fabricating them.

Quite frankly, I don't care if my posts don't sit well with you. I play how I play; if you don't like it *shrug* don't care. If you think I'm scum, vote for me. As I said before, I made peace with getting mislynched in this game soon after replacing in.

[Nobody Special]

I, too, hate endgame.

So much so that I'm very tempted to just place a vote and see what happens, going with my gut.

But I really want to try to improve as a player, so I'm going to actually take the time, read back over the game, and try to be logical.

I'll have questions over the weekend.

Just to leave this here: Had I had a nightkill last night, I would've killed CES. I think he's a strong player, and I would want to pit Tamy vs. MoI in endgame, rather than have two evenly matched players against me. Now, if MoI is the killer, he could have used that logic and killed CES. I feel MoI would

definitely

have left me alive, solely for meta reasons. If Tammy was the killer, I can't really assume who she would've killed, simply beause I don't know her depth of knowledge in regard to me vs. MoI and me vs. CES.

And, we're back to: MoI is alive. That's just not right. He has to be scum.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but if I were forced to vote now, he would be it.


P-Edit: Tammy, you're looking even more town. I hate this.

[Tammy]

Just to leave this here: Had I had a nightkill last night, I would've killed CES.


P-Edit: Tammy, you're looking even more town. I hate this.

You saying you would kill CES is not making things easier for me. (Though I appreciate the honesty.)

If I'd had a nightkill last night I'd have killed you, I think. CES wasn't interacting with me in a way that suggested he suspected me, and he said MoI was the last killer, so I'd have left him alive. Mostly though I'd have left him alive because I wouldn't have passed up an opportunity to fool CES if I thought it was at all possible.

Of course you think I'm looking more town, I mean I am running around going "Look at me I'm Town Town Town" /sarcasm

[Tammy]

MoI - You get my first question. I asked this to you before in the neighborhood and you went all evadey not really answering it in a way that makes sense, so here again:

MoI - You posted this in the neighborhood on 4/9 "Also - for the record I'm not 100% sold on the existence of a Serial Killer. I think Tammy is probably the best bet for scum (no matter what flavor) so that is where my vote is."

You changed your vote from me to DY on 4/11 after the mod cleared up the issue that made it more likely that I wasn't SK. However, this statement would suggest that you believed I was mafia anyway. Your change of vote from me to DY indicated that it was based on my SK status getting cleared up. If your vote on me wasn't based solely on the belief of me being SK, why would Magua's change of vote and my status of SK being rather unlikely be enough for you to change your vote from me? You had already stated in an earlier post that Snake was your top choice for mafia out of the VT's, so why didn't you keep pushing that?

So what questions are you asking here. Let’s see …

1. Let me go restore the QT to my active list and quote my response to you –

The vote and posturing was 100% pressure based. Snake had coasted far too long and I'll be frank ... the time had passed where I could keep giving him a pass and not try to dig into his alignment. Dropping a vote on him and making him my 'top suspect' was my recourse. It actually paid dividends once Magua jumped on-board with his "Snake flake" theory. Your responses and play surrounding the wagon didn't strike me as "Scum caught for the wrong reason" as Magua elaborated on.

At this stage I'm leaning on his gut regarding calling you Town a bit also.

So whether you accept what I am saying is up to you. Trying to say I avoided it not really accuratein the least.

You're doing it again MoI. You were doing it yesterday when I was asking you questions about why you were voting fitz and leaving him in the position you left him. When you answered you declared that I said I found your suspicion of him odd, which I never did. You're twisting words to make yourself look good and make others look bad. Scum do that MoI.

I said that you evaded the question and didn't answer it in a way that makes sense. Which is absolutely true. You saying I said you avoided it is not correct, but you actually are. You're doing the same thing that you were doing to CES. You're not actually answering the question being asked. You're answering A question; you're answering a question that is similar, but you're not answering THE question.

Let's rewind:

On March 31st these were your vanilla town tiers:

Vanilla Town
DeasVail
Jon_h61
NobodySpecial
Havingfitz
Snake

If you'll notice, I'm your biggest VT scum read. You are, at this point in time voting for my slot. On April 6th, you vote Darth Yoshi, for whatever reasons I still don't understand. Sorry, I just can't get where you had a scum read on him, especially after Alice's track. Meh...whatever.

Concerning Darth Yoshi:

Yeah, I can’t possibly think someone else is scum besides you

Odds you are scum are higher than odds of NS IMO and no-one shows any interest in Snake or Having.

Later in same post:

Both possibilities point to Mafia scum Having.

What's really interesting here is that you say that noone shows any interest in Having, but you never really made a case on him. You only voted for him briefly before voting for IaI and then Jason the next day. Sure, you argue with Having and call him scum, but you don't really ever do anything about it.

So, then Magua replaces in and has the theory that I'm the SK, and on April 7th, you go shew ok vote Tammy.

On April 9th, you post this in the QT "Also - for the record I'm not 100% sold on the existence of a Serial Killer. I think Tammy is probably the best bet for scum (no matter what flavor) so that is where my vote is."

This statement demonstrates that you believed me to be mafia. You unequivocally believed me to be scum.

But, on April 11th,

At any rate, Snakeplissken was prodded due to going over the posting time limit and the prod was acknowledged during the night cycle. Had he not responded to the prod, he would have been replaced.

Well unless you are willing to argue that Snake would have responded to a PM prod in the Night and not included a Kill this sort of puts a crimp in the “Snake as Serial Killer” argument.

You unvote me because me as SK becomes less likely. But, your statement just two days prior in the neighborhood was that I was the best bet for scum no matter the flavor. You immediately go back to your Darth Yoshi vote. If you believed that I was scum as you stated two days prior in the neighborhood, why move your vote? Why not push the idea that I'm scum? This makes no sense to me. This was the day DV was lynched. How did this happen? Sure we tried to lynch CES' spot, but if you believed me to be scum, why did I not get lynched? Why did you vote for Jon? It's not like it would have been difficult to get me lynched. Hell, I wasn't even fighting the lynch and said I should be lynched. Jon was just below DV in your VT tiers; why vote him over me?

Nothing you stated here or in the neighborhood suggests that you changed your read on me or that you started feeling better about my slot. In fact, on April 16th, after Magua stated that he was thinking about neighborizing me, you said "Tammy may have throw a lot of words at the game upon replacement but hasn't done enough independant hunting yet for me to give her a replacement Halo. The one positive thing I can say is she was not voting Deas."

That does not tell me that you started feeling better about my slot. That doesn't tell me that you had decided that my responses didn't seem like mafia caught for the wrong reasons. You repeating what Magua said about me when he decided I was town doesn't explain to me why you stopped pushing it. Because while I believe that's where Magua came to a town read on me, I can't get there with you. I also can't get to a "I'm depending on Magua's gut for your town read" either.

So, why weren't you still pushing for me being the mafia you, by all accounts, believed me to be?

This was your answer:

The vote and posturing was 100% pressure based. Snake had coasted far too long and I'll be frank ... the time had passed where I could keep giving him a pass and not try to dig into his alignment.

Dropping a vote on him and making him my 'top suspect' was my recourse. It actually paid dividends once Magua jumped on-board with his "Snake flake" theory. Your responses and play surrounding the wagon didn't strike me as "Scum caught for the wrong reason" as Magua elaborated on.

At this stage I'm leaning on his gut regarding calling you Town a bit also.

Which does not answer the question, which I asked about again in the neighborhood, and you just told me you didn't have a town read on me. But, why weren't you pressuring it?

You say that the vote and posturing was 100% pressure based, but you stated in the neighborhood that you believed I was scum, so it could not be that. When you say 'top suspect' you try to make it look like I wasn't actually a top suspect, but in the neighborhood your statements suggest that I was.

I also want to direct you to something that Having said here concerning Snake:

Snake's absence has reached the point where I can not keep ignoring him.

He is still at least 3 deep on my suspect list so I hope it doesn't come to lynching a lurker but still...what play he has contributed in hindsight has not been very pro-town.

Note the underlined. Sound familiar? Look up to the underlined from your answer in the neighborhood. These types of relational tells set me on edge.

So, again, why did you stop pushing the "Tammy is Scum" theory? The day we lynched redff, no one else was getting lynched, that's true. But, if I was one of your top suspects, why wasn't I a potential for yesterday? Why wasn't I a potential for the day DV got lynched even after it became less likely that I was not SK.

You have not answered in a satisfactory way why you dropped it.

[Tammy]

I really don't think lynching Deas over Jon or NS or fitz among the VT claims is a wise idea.

Since Darth continues to escape attention

UNVOTE: Darth
VOTE: Jon

I'll be checking in the morning before deadline but someone is going to have to do a real sell-job on how Deas can be Mafia to me ... I don't see it.

[Tammy]

^^^ See this is where you vote for Jon. You don't even mention me.

[Tammy]

^^^WHY don't you???

[Tammy]

Just to leave this here: Had I had a nightkill last night, I would've killed CES. I think he's a strong player, and I would want to pit Tamy vs. MoI in endgame, rather than have two evenly matched players against me.

Dammit. The more this settles, the more I get paranoid about you. I feel like if I end up thinking that MoI is definitely guilty and you're actually it, you'll point to this post right here, shrug, and say "I told you exactly what I was doing...it's your fault you didn't pick up on it."

I need a drink.

[Nobody Special]

I like your cases. You make sense. He's still alive, and shouldn't be.

I'll make it easier (harder?) on you:

Vote: MoI

[Tammy]

DAMMIT!

[Nobody Special]

Good. I knew it was him.

I will help you in any way I can. I am town, and he is not.

[Tammy]

Do you know how much I want to vote MoI right now?

Like A LOT.

But, I won't right now because I've had a drink and it's not right.

DAMN. I hate endgame.

[Tammy]

^^^That might not make sense. Me having a drink has nothing to do with it other than my judgment is a little impaired.

[Tammy]

And NS you could still be scum. But I don't think you are. But I really do always mess up at endgame.

[Tammy]

You won't. You're scum of some flavor. I just know it.

If I live we can certainly discuss tomorrow. I know 100% that you will be living to see Dawn since you are either scum or your regular VI self ...

And gosh this could suck, but I remember when you said this. It was part of my theory that you guys could be partners, and you were insulting him for distancing purposes, but that's not true is it? So, you were just being insulting. I mean people have told me that I'm condescending and patronizing at times, because I am, but damn this was rude. *shrug* Doesn't make me feel any better about you.

[Nobody Special]

How was that insulting? I was just expressing my conviction that he wasn't town at all.

[Tammy]

I was referring to MoI calling you a VI. I thought it was rude.

[Tammy]

I liked your response though NS, it felt really genuine.

DAMN.

You really are town aren't you?

[Nobody Special]

I really am. I assumed you were talking to me, sorry.

[Tammy]

Don't apologize I get my reads, wrong or right, from interacting with people so it's always good when someone responds.

[Tammy]

12th vote count of day 5:

Nobody Special - 3 (redFF, Jon_h61, Tammy)
DarthYoshi - 2 (DeasVail, MagnaofIllusion)
redff - 1 (havingfitz)
Jon_h61 - 1 (Magua)
MagnaofIllusion - 1 (DarthYoshi)
DeasVail - 1 (Alicewondering)
Alicewondering - 1 (Nobody Special)

Not Voting: ()

With 10 alive it's 6 to lynch.

So, here's the 12th vote count of day 5. NS has three votes on him.

In the very next post, HF votes:

Lot of single votes need to pick a wagon.

I'd go back to red in a heartbeat. DV would be nice. NS has legs though and is just as nice.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Nobody special

He puts his vote on NS making that the fourth vote. This is after Alice made her case on DV. He could have put his vote on DV, who he clearly wanted, and helped to make that wagon viable but he doesn't. DY voted for NS right after this and I changed my mind and voted for Jon. DY and NS followed right after me.

13th vote count of day 5:

Jon_h61 - 4 (Magua, Tammy, DarthYoshi, Nobody Special)
Nobody Special - 2 (redFF, havingfitz)
DarthYoshi - 2 (DeasVail, MagnaofIllusion)
DeasVail - 2 (Alicewondering, Jon_h61)

Not Voting: ()

With 10 alive it's 6 to lynch.

Day 5 will end no later than Friday, April 13th at 6pm CST

Next vote count. The Fitz switches to DV

OK...deadline today. Thinking out loud....my top suspect [redFF] is still amazingly not getting any attention. Everyone is everywhere with their voting. My top two mafia suspects are NS and DV...and they are tied at 2. A switch of my vote to DV gets him to 3 votes vs the 2v2 and I've preferred DV almost the entire game anyways so great.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: DV

While I think jon's play has been a little lacking...he doesn't come close the amount of suspicion I have towards my top three. i.e. I do not see me voting jon today.

Hmm...I need to think about this.