Bit doesnt deserve this at all. Im basically the only reason he didnt die early, he played suboptimally the entire game, and in the end his wins because town derps hard and game throws (really NK immune Bit hands scum the game?).
Crap play all over, win condition is messed up badly. Whoever made the win conditions, Bit for playing poorly and stumbling into a win, Psyche for not posing what I told him to in the QT, kunk and trevor for game throwing... This game was stupid.
@DMS - This game was a forced draw. Town fucked it up and gave SK a win. What WAS supposed to be done - No kill, 1:1:2 endgame, no one can kill. At that point Bit is forced between surrendering a forced draw and small chance of a win by killing a doc and thats it.
This is the least deserved win ive ever seen a SK take. Bit only didnt die because I kept them alive the entire game because I figured there was no way a SK would play that badly. Its not like it was intentional play either.
Yes im bitter because I lost a game where I cant really have played any better only to get robbed by a shit win condition, shit SK play, and then game throwing town. Nothing else to say.
Well... from F6 it was forced draw and just had to go through motions, town physically couldnt win the game without it being handed to them.
No lynch
Scum NKed
No lynch
Scum NKed
No lynch
Either Bit kills doc - No lynch - Crosskill and town win
or
No kill perpetually - game drawn
Last two town just forgot/didnt realize that Bit was Strongman so turned three way draw into SK win.
@UN - Go rage replace some more? Really what was that all about?
Not getting DGL hate either, he played better than almost the entire town this game. Always was right where he needed to be on wagons and stuff like that.
This 3:2:1 ending was pretty interesting, I should go analyze it fully at some point. (I thought something was off with the ending negotiations while I was reading the ending there; nice to know that Bitmap was screwing up his setup theory intentionally in order to manipulate the scum, it was a nice twist.)
@NS: The rule that Near would have violated in most rulesets is the "no provable randomness" rule, but it seems not to actually be in your ruleset. I recommend adding it (especially as it's required for Newbie games, after various ingenious sorts of abuse). That sort of townie-townie communication works by establishing a random number that both players know, so it's a provable randomness violation. (Oh, and Near, your scheme doesn't actually work; anyone can look at the timestamp on your post and compare that to all the links you gave, to figure out what the time was when they're followed. For it to work, you'd need an online clock that changed the rate at which it ticked randomly over time. But don't do that, because it violates most mod's rulesets.)
In post 2232, callforjudgement wrote:This 3:2:1 ending was pretty interesting, I should go analyze it fully at some point. (I thought something was off with the ending negotiations while I was reading the ending there; nice to know that Bitmap was screwing up his setup theory intentionally in order to manipulate the scum, it was a nice twist.)
@NS: The rule that Near would have violated in most rulesets is the "no provable randomness" rule, but it seems not to actually be in your ruleset. I recommend adding it (especially as it's required for Newbie games, after various ingenious sorts of abuse). That sort of townie-townie communication works by establishing a random number that both players know, so it's a provable randomness violation. (Oh, and Near, your scheme doesn't actually work; anyone can look at the timestamp on your post and compare that to all the links you gave, to figure out what the time was when they're followed. For it to work, you'd need an online clock that changed the rate at which it ticked randomly over time. But don't do that, because it violates most mod's rulesets.)
But our time stamps on mafiascum display minutes but not seconds. So, a player reading the time stamp of 9:45 could infer that I made my post from 9:50:00 to 9:50:59.
I posted my question when the online clock displayed the seconds reading of "00". So Trevor had up to 30 seconds to read and answer my question. Anyone who took more than 30 seconds to answer would have mis-aligned the random number from me.
Of course, if scums immediately discovered what I was trying to do, they could have simply recorded their time on their local clock and then figure out what the random number was.
As an aside: in this specific scenario, it didn't really matter if scums
somehow
figured out what the random number was as long as scums thought that such ploy was a two-way communication in determining who should protect Bit, rather than the reality - one way communication from me to Trevor. Scum would have figured that Trevor would have been unprotected. And I would have simply protected Trevor.
EDBWOP: But our time stamps on mafiascum display minutes but not seconds. So, a player reading the time stamp of 9:50 could infer that I made my post from 9:50:00 to 9:50:59.
4. Don't use hidden or small text, cryptography, or provable randomness. (Breadcrumbs are OK.)
An expanded version looks like this:
Making random decisions is OK, but you must not make them in a way that other players can be sure wasn't rigged. (So, for instance, you can roll a dice and tell everyone you rolled a 5, because there's no way for them to know if you actually did or not; but using a dice tag is against the rules.)
Come to think of it, though, this might not be enough to stop what you were doing; I can imagine an actually secure version of what you came up with which involves no randomness. (Imagine two townies who know each other in real life, and come up with something like "If your sister's name starts with A, I'll protect X, otherwise I'll protect Y.") I haven't seen rules against this in mods' rulesets yet, but they may be necessary.
Oh, and to answer the question of endgame analysis: this was a town win. I believe 2:1:1 to be a town win in all situations with reasonably normal roles, except ones where the SK is 1-shot bulletproof with an unused shot
and
the Mafia know it, or the SK is full bulletproof (regardless of whether the Mafia know it).
On day 6, both of the townies should have voted for a no-lynch, forcing a no-lynch as they formed half the playerlist on that day. (Preferably before the scum can start discussing anything.) Then the game collapses into the Prisoner's Gambit: both remaining scum have the choice of cross-killing or shooting townies, and no matter what the other scum does, they're better off shooting the other scum than a townie. (And the townies shouldn't be protecting the SK any more, so the SK has no NK immunity any more; and even if the SK
is
NK-immune despite everything, then the townies can lynch them the next day.) Additionally, even if both scum cooperate and go for the draw, they only have a 50-50 chance of each shooting a different townie (if disallowed day-phase communication), which should just make them more inclined to go for the win. So scum almost certainly crosskill on night 6, and town wins.
The SK had strongman shots left (infinitely many, in fact). He was relying on the fact that town would try to cross-protect for the win and forget about the strongman ability, and the plan worked just fine.
We were at 2:1:1. Let's suppose doctors protect each other at all times.
SK targeting mafia, would result in:
1) Town win, if mafia targets a doctor
2) Town win, if mafia does not target anyone
3) Town win, if mafia targets the SK
SK targeting the doctor, would result in
1) 1:1:1, if mafia targets a doctor
2) 1:1:1, if mafia does not target anyone
3) Mafia win, if mafia targets the SK
SK not targeting anyone, would result in:
1) 2:1:1, if mafia targets a doctor
2) 2:1:1, if mafia does not target anyone
3) Town win, if mafia targets the SK
So, for SK to have any chance, SK must not target the mafia - which means, he will target doctor or not target anyone.
To get an insight on SK's and mafia's best course action, we need to analyze what could happen if we ended up at 1:1:1? No lynch could happen during the day.
At night (Keep in mind, doctor cannot save himself and his protection only has relevance if doctor protects the SK):
SK targeting the mafia, would result in:
1) SK win, if mafia targets the doctor
2) SK win, if mafia does not target anyone
3) Town win, if mafia targets the SK and doctor does not protect
4) SK win, if mafia targets SK and doctor protects SK
SK targeting the doctor, would result in:
1) Draw, if mafia targets the doctor
2) Draw, if mafia does not target anyone (same as above)
3) Mafia win, if mafia targets the SK and no protection
4) Draw, if mafia targets the SK and doctor protects SK
SK not targeting anyone, would result in:
1) Draw, if mafia targets the doctor
2) 1:1:1, if mafia does not target anyone
3) Mafia win, if mafia targets the SK and no protection
4) 1:1:1, if mafia targets the SK and doctor protects SK
If we are at 1:1:1, as long as we assume that draw is better outcome than a loss, SK does not have a clear course of action. If mafia and doctor would act in a random manner, SK should probably target the the mafia. This way, SK would win majority of the time (5 out of 6 games).
But from standalone mafia's point of view, if SK and doctor would act in a random manner, mafia targeting the SK would give him the best chance of winning.
But players' actions are not random. Individually, the SK's best course of action seems to be targeting the mafia. Individually, mafia's best course of action seems to be targeting the SK. But in 100% of such situation, neither SK or mafia wins - in fact, town would win instead (as long as doctor does not protect).
Like it has been pointed out, 1:1:1 would be a prisoner's dilemma and it is hard to predict what the outcome of such situation is going to be. There is some chance of each faction coming out ahead as well as ending in a draw.
So going back to 2:1:1 (at the top), SK's goal HAS to be to go in to 1:1:1. All other outcomes end in a loss (or repeat of 2:1:1). The only way for SK to go in to 1:1:1 is by targeting the doctor. But SK can't just announce that he will target the doctor, because mafia will target the SK and win the game.
So, SK must threaten to choose between A) targeting the doctor and B) not targeting anyone. This way, mafia targeting the SK in scenario B) would result in mafia loss (and town win). This would force mafia to choose C) not targeting anyone OR D) targeting the SK.
Combination of
A) and C) results in 1:1:1 (which is what SK wants)
A) and D) results in mafia win
B) and C) repeats 2:1:1
B) and D) ends in town win
So, it seems that the possibilities of the outcome are complex and depends on chance. SK, for sure, though has the shortest end of the straw as he needs to first move the game into 1:1:1 configuration - an attempt that could result in instant town or mafia win.
Point out the mistakes please. This is actually very interesting to me.
@Near - Thats why correct play was for RM to explicitly say "If Bit kills a doctor, we no lynch and I will target him tonight". That stops anything but a draw, since there was no way for scum to win without a very bad move from the SK or town giving a 1:1:1 probable win for them to us.
Its what I told Psyche/RM to post in the QT but they never did. I mapped the force draw and it got ignored which adds to my pissed off-ness this game.
But RBD, RM's words cannot be used to predict her actions. It entirely possible that all three factions were satisfied with a draw at 2:1:1.
But it's also possible that Bit would try to win the game out right at 1:1:1 (and possibly lose the game trying). This is because at 1:1:1, RM's action is no longer predictable based on her previous threat that she will target the SK.
At 1:1:1, if both SK and mafia followed the best course of action assuming random actions from other factions, then town will win 100%.
Which is exactly the reason why SK and mafia do not have an easy decision to make.
Which is exactly the reason, at 1:1:1 why mafia may think about targeting the doctor or not targeting anyone at all. And we go around in circle.
SK may win, Mafia may win. Town may win. Or it could be a draw.
