Open 438: Masons and Mafia - Game Over


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Post Post #350 (ISO) » Sat Aug 11, 2012 7:53 am

Post by greygnarl »

I feel like right now there isn't much to work with. My vote will stay on Hyperion though.
I just can't get a good feel of what you think because pretty much every post you make is just a response to someone else.
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Post Post #351 (ISO) » Sat Aug 11, 2012 8:22 am

Post by maxwell »

Vote Count
With 8 alive it is 5 to lynch.
Last edited by maxwell on Sat Aug 11, 2012 12:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #352 (ISO) » Sat Aug 11, 2012 8:49 am

Post by seilkops »

TLDR
Town
Greywing
JD
Hyperion?
Pasch?
Greygnarl
Scum

WTF
PB

Still need to look at Whiskers, but ran out of time

PressedBunson

I have a sneaking suspicion that PB's role is important (scum or mason), and that I'll want to pay close attention to how the replacement handles this game. Since PB has no real activity, I can only label him as null.

Greywing

I didn't like his fake Mason claim, but pretty much only
because it didn't work
failed miserably. If it
had
worked, I would have been much more impressed with such a risky play. Om claimed, and shit happens, not a whole lot you can do their. Lashing out at OM was pretty unfair, since he could have easily been scum with PG doing some crazy ass play. I think though, that whole play of his makes Grey obvtown, so I will go ahead and label him.
In post 340, greygnarl wrote:
After a reread of Pasch I can see him being scum.
However I feel like that is a very small chance and I have no evidence.
I just want to make sure people don't think the fact that my only case is against Hyperion means I'm tunneling him.


Yeah...not a big fan of paranoid self-preservation. That's a huge newbscum tell.



Also, I'm surprised he hasn't gotten more heat for posts 291-294. He unvotes after the hammer's been placed, then says that he knew what my plan was...directly after I'd just stated it. This reads to me like someone trying too hard to look Town.

VOTE: greygnarl

Covering yourself is a scum tell? He's trying to get so momentum going in the game by getting peoples to look at Pasch, who previously was very under looked, so I can't discredit him for going about that the safe way. We can't all just burst in with a "Pasch is TOTAL scum, so everyone vote for him, and if he flips town vote for me to!!!!11"
This may be a bit biased, because I can also see Pasch as scum. He has stirred 0 people, and that always makes me a little suspicious.

Overall though, I'm pretty sure Greywing is obvtown, if just for the fakemason claim. I don't like how he's playing though.
Greywing: Solid Town

Greygnarl

First off
greygnarl wrote:I feel like right now there isn't much to work with. My vote will stay on Hyperion though.

I just can't get a good feel of what you think because pretty much every post you make is just a response to someone else.

First off,
Way to f@#king parrot JD, who says almost the same thing in a post below you. That's just blatant, did he give you a cracker or something to say that, goddamn.
In general, besides agreeing with you on Pasch, I think you're probs scum. You've got some sloppy stuff, including your recent post of
McStab is town because Salamence put so much pressure on him and a mafia wouldn't do that to one of his own.

And there goes my entire line of reasoningMcStab could be your scumbuddy still though.

Call me hypocritscummy but I'm just trying to make things happen.

I'll give it to you that you didn't panic when I came at you out of the blue and instead came at me with a thought out post. I still think it can work if your the scum's strategy was extreme distancing.

In case you haven't noticed, my posts are never carefully planned.


I think that's scum trying to look like sloppy town. If he was true town, he wouldn't be so flippant on admitting that he forgot why McStab was town. Usually, a towny would at least try to come up with some more good reasons, if just so people will be able to know
why
you think he's town. People usually write off sloppy town as VI, and leave them alone, so this would be a good scum strategy to blend in.

I want to look at who greygnarl has been in contact with in this game, but don't have the time right now, and see if he's been doing some minor bussing. Maybe Hyperion?

@Greywing
Please take your vote off on greygnarl, so I can vote him and be original. You can then follow up by voting greygnarl, and then await accusations of not having any original thoughts.
Thx!

greygnarl: SCUM

JD

I see you as probscum if greygnarl, or maybe Hyperion or Pasch, turn out to be town. If either by their arguments, or by flipping. You're aggressive af, which has already been stated *DISCLAIMERS NOTE: PARROTED THOUGHT*, but you haven't done any
actions
that make me want to vote you. I wish I could though, if that makes you feel better.
I'm going to address your response to my counter attack now

DoubleJD wrote:What on earth are you talking about. All you've done so far is defend yourself. You are still just defending yourself. What info has the flips given you, and why are you uninterested in using them to figure out roles?

And ya, not voting my only scum read isnt a scum tell btw. Saying it is is just an attack designed to win the argument though instead of figuring out my role. How can you argue that me not voting is scummy, but then in the same breath say you arent ready to vote? Thats hilarious, especially since you seem just as sure that im scum that i am of you. Id rather wait myself and see you flail some more and have others give their opinions honestly. 4 flips is a lot, and too many people arent talking.

What do you mean what happened to make me change my mind? We had flips. Thats what happened. Flips give role info on other players too, and should change reads. Ignoring them, like you have, is indicative of being scum because you dont get any info from flips at all.


I'm talking about how you state I won't respond to attacks on me, and then say all I do is respond to attacks on me whenever I respond.
You not voting me is a hella lot more scummy. You basically said that I was obvscum with your linegraph, while I pointed out the scummyness of you not voting me, after saying that. I'm really glad you find that funny, especially considering in no where in my reply do I say you are obvscum. *flail flail*

About the flips.

I haven't said anything about the flips for the simple reason of, I'm not sure what to say. OM is Mason, huge amazement?
I thought Sala was scum, but wasn't online to vote for him when he did a desperate daykill.
I didn't look at Whiskers at all, and was slightly surprised when he turned out to be scum, but like I said, I didn't in-depth read much of what he posted. Anything I could say about him, has been said, and if I try to agree with those statements, I'll be accused of parroting. So I just take note of who he had contact with in game, and make a note of that and try to watch them as the game progresses. It has to be pretty blatant for me to do that though, like Sala possibly coaching, or misdirecting, or something else along those lines. I usually focus on whose alive in-game. Is that a weakness? Sure. I'm not good at doing in-depth analyses of who scum talked to , and what they say, and what it really means.
Turned into a little bit of rambling their, my bad.

Back to the points at had
JD: Leaning scum

VOTE: greygnarl
Serious about gw unvoting and revoting though.
Alright, I'm done for now. I'm going to head off to work, will post tommorow in the morning with my in depth reads on Pasch and Hyperion. I'll respond to the comments on my reads in the morning as well.
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Post Post #353 (ISO) » Sat Aug 11, 2012 9:16 am

Post by Paschendale »

So, let's look at the wagons.

McStab and Om had votes on Sala for quite a while. While I was chasing PG and several folks were eyeing McStab, they were pursuing Sala.

Third vote on Sala was Hyperion. The fourth was Whiskers, bussing his teammate. Whiskers' vote pushed Sala over the edge. Since scum cannot coordinate, I think this is a pretty good town point for Hyperion. I'm not really sure why Whiskers did this, actually.

Sala votes for himself, and then PG (Sorry!) pops in and votes Sala for voting himself. Then Sala shoots, misses, and dies.

Only two people who voted for Sala are still alive. McStab and Hyperion. Both voted in the first half. Hyperion's vote looks well reasoned and solid, but McStab's... It comes right after talking about Greywing and PG, and basing attacks on them off of association. But then suddenly he goes for Sala. It's a bit early in the wagon to attempt bussing, but the vote doesn't make a lot of sense.

Perhaps there isn't much left to learn from Sala's wagon. I think it reflects well on Hyperion, though. And perhaps reflects a little scummy on everyone who wasn't on it. Including me :(



Now, PG's wagon. The votes on PG were our 2 dead masons and 5 living people. But it was a lynch on a townie. So let's see if we can find some scum on this wagon.

Let's start with me, I guess. I was after PG for a long while, and I was the first to vote for him after Sala's flip. I will say that I genuinely believed he was scum. Still, it's silly to try and get reads on yourself. I just didn't want to leave anyone out. I obviously think I had a good reason to vote for PG or I wouldn't have done it. Moving on...

Mala votes second. She was a mason, no problem there.

McStab votes third. He's quite trigger happy, but since he was agreeing with me, it's hard to feel like his vote was forced.

Seil votes fourth... and doesn't particularly give a reason why. Maybe he didn't want to parrot, but scum obviously wants to hop on any town wagon they can. No night kills, so scum has to lynch some townies to win. Even if they kill all the masons, they need mislynches.

DJD votes fifth, comments on the PG/Sala connections, and backs it up well.

PG defends himself for a while, mainly by attacking me and making accusations that I'm lining up a series of mislynches, which obviously did not unfold that way, since McStab is supposedly next. But it's really a shame that we missed this gem.

In post 252, ProsecutorGodot wrote:EBWDP: Now that I look at Whiskers's post, that reminds me of what I think the scum's tactics are now as far as shooting goes.

"Wait until L-1. If you miss, you were going to die anyway."

They'll probably claim at L-1, then shoot. They work out as much as they can about the Masons, then take the shot when they are about to go.


Maybe we could have gotten Whiskers earlier.

Greygnarl's one post during this wagon is to put PG at L-1, despite mainly talking about something else. He seems to be clearing McStab of guilt because Sala was focused on him.

Then Greywing does his claim. It's interesting that he did this, since while it may have attracted a kill attempt, the fact remains that, no matter what Greywing's alignment, he could not have known PG's, since no one knows who the regular townies are.

In post 289, Greywing wrote:Om, you moron.

I'm VT. I fakeclaimed in order to try and draw the scumkill and protect an obvious Town who was also trying to draw a kill. Due to the quick growth of the wagon, it's almost impossible for PG to be anything other than a VT. Both scum and Masons would have derailed the wagon if PG belonged to either group.

So Om, congrats on killing a VT, getting me lynched next, getting yourself shot, and probably losing us the game.


Greywing was absolutely right here, especially about the wagon derailment. The one derailment on Sala's wagon came from Seil (though it was not exactly what one would call spirited). This whole business makes Greywing look pretty town to me.

Om, our second dead mason, hammers.

The two votes that seem most interesting in this wagon are Seil's and Greygnarl's. Seil's because he just hopped on with no real discussion and having never mentioned PG before. Greygnarl's attempted unvote is interesting, but he was right. PG was town. Really not sure why he voted and put PG at L-1 if he thought PG was town.

Okay, what can we learn from this wagon? Greygnarl and Seil come out looking pretty fishy. Seil hops on a wagon just to hop on it, and Greygnarl votes but apparently doesn't agree with his vote.

From these wagons, I think that Hyperion and Greywing are probably town, and I feel even more confident about Seil. Greygnarl flips back and forth, but his attack on Hyperion is suddenly even more suspect. Greywing, my other strong townread now, agrees. Also of note is that Greygnarl and Seil were both absent from the Sala lynch. Greygnarl's comments about Sala during the wagon are interesting as well. He, like Seil, is cautioning against the lynch. He says to wait for Sala to defend himself, but then later says that Sala is being a little too defensive. He also has a townread on Sala in 121.

PEedit: Seil posted while I was writing this, so let's talk about his latest post now.

The net result of writing this post was a lot more suspicion of Greygnarl, which Seil makes as well. Could he be bussing a buddy who's under the gun? I'm not as sure as I was an hour ago. Though if Seil isn't scum then I'm a bit of a loss.

Actually, I don't look so good from this, either. Perhaps I should be more cautious with my votes. Not like I hammered anyone, but my two strongest scum reads were 1 confirmed townie and now a strong townread. Especially now that we're essentially adding a brand new player. Maybe I should pay more attention to my slight reads, which had Whiskers, Sala, and Gnarl as scum. Gnarl is starting to look even scummier than Sala.

Unvote
for now, but
FoS: Greygnarl
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Post Post #354 (ISO) » Sat Aug 11, 2012 1:24 pm

Post by Hyperion »

In post 348, DoubleJD wrote:@Greywing: I agree, theres tons of stuff scummy about gnarl. What do you make of Whisker's wall against him though? It could be distancing...but i feel like it isnt.

@Seil: Ill be watching to see if you just parrot everyone else's thoughts instead of makign your own.

@Hyperion: Hrmmmmmm why did you point out that "Obv whiskers=scum" but not "obv mala=mason/town"? That seems....scum slippy

I didn't say anything about mala because the question wasn't asking for a read on mala:
In post 312, greygnarl wrote:DJD, Mala, Hyperion, and Whiskers coyld you
give a read plus reasoning on me, Whiskers, and DJD unless you are that person.


McStab, when/if you get back can you give thoughts on Sala/PG flips.

Thanks Hyp.
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Post Post #355 (ISO) » Sat Aug 11, 2012 1:28 pm

Post by Hyperion »

EBWOP:
also add to the above:
How is that a scum slip? and it seems like DJD is jumping at nothing :/
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Post Post #356 (ISO) » Sat Aug 11, 2012 1:51 pm

Post by greygnarl »

In post 352, seilkops wrote:TLDR
Town
Greywing
JD
Hyperion?
Pasch?
Greygnarl
Scum

WTF
PB

Not sure why your scumreads are under Town but whatever
Still need to look at Whiskers, but ran out of time

PressedBunson

I have a sneaking suspicion that PB's role is important (scum or mason), and that I'll want to pay close attention to how the replacement handles this game. Since PB has no real activity, I can only label him as null.

Agree

Greywing

I didn't like his fake Mason claim, but pretty much only
because it didn't work
failed miserably. If it
had
worked, I would have been much more impressed with such a risky play. Om claimed, and shit happens, not a whole lot you can do their. Lashing out at OM was pretty unfair, since he could have easily been scum with PG doing some crazy ass play. I think though, that whole play of his makes Grey obvtown, so I will go ahead and label him.
Mostly agree.
In post 340, greygnarl wrote:
After a reread of Pasch I can see him being scum.
However I feel like that is a very small chance and I have no evidence.
I just want to make sure people don't think the fact that my only case is against Hyperion means I'm tunneling him.


Yeah...not a big fan of paranoid self-preservation. That's a huge newbscum tell.



Also, I'm surprised he hasn't gotten more heat for posts 291-294. He unvotes after the hammer's been placed, then says that he knew what my plan was...directly after I'd just stated it. This reads to me like someone trying too hard to look Town.

VOTE: greygnarl

Covering yourself is a scum tell? He's trying to get so momentum going in the game by getting peoples to look at Pasch, who previously was very under looked, so I can't discredit him for going about that the safe way. We can't all just burst in with a "Pasch is TOTAL scum, so everyone vote for him, and if he flips town vote for me to!!!!11"
This may be a bit biased, because I can also see Pasch as scum. He has stirred 0 people, and that always makes me a little suspicious.[/quote]Here you defend me.

Overall though, I'm pretty sure Greywing is obvtown, if just for the fakemason claim. I don't like how he's playing though.
Greywing: Solid Town

Greygnarl

First off
greygnarl wrote:I feel like right now there isn't much to work with. My vote will stay on Hyperion though.

I just can't get a good feel of what you think because pretty much every post you make is just a response to someone else.

First off,
Way to f@#king parrot JD, who says almost the same thing in a post below you. That's just blatant, did he give you a cracker or something to say that, goddamn.
Are you talking about his post?
In post 348, DoubleJD wrote:@Greywing: I agree, theres tons of stuff scummy about gnarl. What do you make of Whisker's wall against him though? It could be distancing...but i feel like it isnt.

@Seil: Ill be watching to see if you just parrot everyone else's thoughts instead of makign your own.

@Hyperion: Hrmmmmmm why did you point out that "Obv whiskers=scum" but not "obv mala=mason/town"? That seems....scum slippy

I don't say anything related to that.
In general, besides agreeing with you on Pasch, I think you're probs scum. You've got some sloppy stuff, including your recent post of
McStab is town because Salamence put so much pressure on him and a mafia wouldn't do that to one of his own.

And there goes my entire line of reasoningMcStab could be your scumbuddy still though.

Call me hypocritscummy but I'm just trying to make things happen.

I'll give it to you that you didn't panic when I came at you out of the blue and instead came at me with a thought out post. I still think it can work if your the scum's strategy was extreme distancing.

In case you haven't noticed, my posts are never carefully planned.


I think that's scum trying to look like sloppy town. If he was true town, he wouldn't be so flippant on admitting that he forgot why McStab was town. Usually, a towny would at least try to come up with some more good reasons, if just so people will be able to know
why
you think he's town. People usually write off sloppy town as VI, and leave them alone, so this would be a good scum strategy to blend in.

I want to look at who greygnarl has been in contact with in this game, but don't have the time right now, and see if he's been doing some minor bussing. Maybe Hyperion?

@Greywing
Please take your vote off on greygnarl, so I can vote him and be original. You can then follow up by voting greygnarl, and then await accusations of not having any original thoughts.
Thx!

greygnarl: SCUM

Now you say I'm scum and make an outrageous post that screams trying to look paranoid.

JD

I see you as probscum if greygnarl, or maybe Hyperion or Pasch, turn out to be town. If either by their arguments, or by flipping. You're aggressive af, which has already been stated *DISCLAIMERS NOTE: PARROTED THOUGHT*, but you haven't done any
actions
that make me want to vote you. I wish I could though, if that makes you feel better.
You think he's scum if almost half the other people are scum? Nice read.
I'm going to address your response to my counter attack now

DoubleJD wrote:What on earth are you talking about. All you've done so far is defend yourself. You are still just defending yourself. What info has the flips given you, and why are you uninterested in using them to figure out roles?

And ya, not voting my only scum read isnt a scum tell btw. Saying it is is just an attack designed to win the argument though instead of figuring out my role. How can you argue that me not voting is scummy, but then in the same breath say you arent ready to vote? Thats hilarious, especially since you seem just as sure that im scum that i am of you. Id rather wait myself and see you flail some more and have others give their opinions honestly. 4 flips is a lot, and too many people arent talking.

What do you mean what happened to make me change my mind? We had flips. Thats what happened. Flips give role info on other players too, and should change reads. Ignoring them, like you have, is indicative of being scum because you dont get any info from flips at all.


I'm talking about how you state I won't respond to attacks on me, and then say all I do is respond to attacks on me whenever I respond.
You not voting me is a hella lot more scummy. You basically said that I was obvscum with your linegraph, while I pointed out the scummyness of you not voting me, after saying that. I'm really glad you find that funny, especially considering in no where in my reply do I say you are obvscum. *flail flail*

About the flips.

I haven't said anything about the flips for the simple reason of, I'm not sure what to say. OM is Mason, huge amazement?
I thought Sala was scum, but wasn't online to vote for him when he did a desperate daykill.
I didn't look at Whiskers at all, and was slightly surprised when he turned out to be scum, but like I said, I didn't in-depth read much of what he posted. Anything I could say about him, has been said, and if I try to agree with those statements, I'll be accused of parroting. So I just take note of who he had contact with in game, and make a note of that and try to watch them as the game progresses. It has to be pretty blatant for me to do that though, like Sala possibly coaching, or misdirecting, or something else along those lines. I usually focus on whose alive in-game. Is that a weakness? Sure. I'm not good at doing in-depth analyses of who scum talked to , and what they say, and what it really means.
Turned into a little bit of rambling their, my bad.

Back to the points at had
JD: Leaning scum

And then you attack JD because he attacked you and he's too aggressive for your liking? C'mon now. If anything you could say he was too much of a buddy to Whiskers.That's still a weak argument but at least it's not a completely stupid one.
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Post Post #357 (ISO) » Sat Aug 11, 2012 2:10 pm

Post by DoubleJD »

Ya ok. Seil's the best choice. VOTE: seilkop

@Hyperion: Yup, i misread that lol. If he was also asking for mala reads, then it might have been a slip just becasue you'd have favored one flip over another.

@Greygnarl: Switch to seil. The hyperion lynch has much less merit.
You got me!
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Post Post #358 (ISO) » Sat Aug 11, 2012 4:51 pm

Post by greygnarl »

Vote:Seil
His attack on DJD looks like he recognizes him as the most dangerous town player and wants to plant seeds of doubt while going after others because most people thinks DJD. He obviously thinks both me and DJD are VT and is going after me because I firmly believe DJD to be town.
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Post Post #359 (ISO) » Sat Aug 11, 2012 5:15 pm

Post by greygnarl »

Also, there was a paragraph in the middle of my post that should have been in quotes:
Covering yourself is a scum tell? He's trying to get so momentum going in the game by getting peoples to look at Pasch, who previously was very under looked, so I can't discredit him for going about that the safe way. We can't all just burst in with a "Pasch is TOTAL scum, so everyone vote for him, and if he flips town vote for me to!!!!11"
This may be a bit biased, because I can also see Pasch as scum. He has stirred 0 people, and that always makes me a little suspicious.
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Post Post #360 (ISO) » Sat Aug 11, 2012 5:37 pm

Post by Paschendale »

Alright, I guess there's no room to play it safe, then. I started this Seil wagon. I guess I'd better pick a firm side.

Seil vs. Greygnarl... go! All this made tougher because they're both pretty scummy looking, and are focused on each other. How likely is it that they're both scum? If they attack each other, probably lots of town cred for the one that survives.

Interesting Seil points: Went from solid townread on me in 335 to second scummiest in 352. I had not posted a single thing in this timeframe. Looks more like a change in tactics than a legit read. Plus he keeps insisting that PB is a scum or mason. That seems like some misdirection, too. There's absolutely no reason to have any suspicions at all on PB. Though we are all waiting with bated breath for the replacement to show up. He's flailing and he knows it. 359 posts and he ought to have some reads...

Interesting Gnarl points:

In post 358, greygnarl wrote:
Vote:Seil
His attack on DJD looks like he recognizes him as the most dangerous town player and wants to plant seeds of doubt while going after others because most people thinks DJD. He obviously thinks both me and DJD are VT and is going after me because I firmly believe DJD to be town.


I kind of agree here that this is what Seil is doing, though I don't have quite has strong a townread on DJD, and I don't have one at all on Gnarl.

But Seil still looks scummier.
Vote: Seil


PEedit: What do you mean by "stirring" people? I don't know that phrase.
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Post Post #361 (ISO) » Sat Aug 11, 2012 8:56 pm

Post by maxwell »

seilkops has been killed due to an unsuccessful daykill. He was a
mafia goon
.


Vote count and deadline have been reset.

Vote Count
  • Not voting:
    DoubleJD Hyperion Paschendale Greywing Pressed Bunson McStab greygnarl

With 7 alive it is 4 to lynch.


The deadline is set for August 19 at 4 AM EST.
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Post Post #362 (ISO) » Sat Aug 11, 2012 9:30 pm

Post by seilkops »

No tears now, only dreams.
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Post Post #363 (ISO) » Sun Aug 12, 2012 5:14 am

Post by Greywing »

VOTE: Pressed Bunson

After that last scum flip, I now have strong Town reads on every player left except for PB.
Show
"One arrow alone can be easily broken, but many arrows are indestructible."

Genghis Khan.

Records

(wins-losses)

Town
: 3-1
Mafia
: 3-1
Independent
: 0-0
Overall
: 6-2
Times Lynched
: 4
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Post Post #364 (ISO) » Sun Aug 12, 2012 5:24 am

Post by greygnarl »

I don't have a town read on Hyperion but we can lynch him if PB is town.
Vote:Pressed Bunson
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Post Post #365 (ISO) » Sun Aug 12, 2012 6:28 am

Post by DoubleJD »

My issue with PB is that i cant shake the idea that scum would have pm'd the mod early in the game about his absence.
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Post Post #366 (ISO) » Sun Aug 12, 2012 6:37 am

Post by DoubleJD »

Gah no. Theres too much favoring everyone else as town. VOTE: PB
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Post Post #367 (ISO) » Sun Aug 12, 2012 7:12 am

Post by Greywing »

L-1 now.

Someone hammer him so we can get the win.
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"One arrow alone can be easily broken, but many arrows are indestructible."

Genghis Khan.

Records

(wins-losses)

Town
: 3-1
Mafia
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Independent
: 0-0
Overall
: 6-2
Times Lynched
: 4
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Post Post #368 (ISO) » Sun Aug 12, 2012 9:12 am

Post by greygnarl »

Hyperion, Pasch, McStab, where are you?
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Post Post #369 (ISO) » Sun Aug 12, 2012 11:35 am

Post by DoubleJD »

Mcstab's vla till tomorrow iirc. Not suprised people arent here on sunday morning/afternoon though
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Post Post #370 (ISO) » Sun Aug 12, 2012 11:50 am

Post by McStab »

Ok, I got back earlier (as in now). I'll write a catchup post soon, but please no one hammer PB while I'm gone. I think I've got the last scum pegged down and it isn't PB.
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Post Post #371 (ISO) » Sun Aug 12, 2012 12:11 pm

Post by greygnarl »

Unvote

I'll here what McStab has to say.
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Post Post #372 (ISO) » Sun Aug 12, 2012 12:19 pm

Post by greygnarl »

Also how much did you read before posting?
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Post Post #373 (ISO) » Sun Aug 12, 2012 12:21 pm

Post by McStab »

I'm convinced Greywing is the last scum. He seems to have flown over everyone's radar because of the whole Om outing himself situation, where he claimed to be masons with PG. This shouldn't clear him.

Ok, so let's assume you're Greywing and you're scum. You see PG about to get lynched; you're uncertain of his alignment, but he has just claimed mason. Now, you know PG is town, but are unsure of what to make of it; hammering would be too obvious on a claimed mason, and lurking/not commenting would raise some alarm bells. What do you do? You claim to back him up as a mason. When PG flips town (be it mason or VT) you instantly gain some towncred for trying to save him. If people believe your claim, the masons will obviously react differently and be more confused about whether or not you're masons/scum.

The purpose of such a gambit would be threefold:

1. Try to get a mason counterclaim, thus getting PG mislynched (as presumably he's a scum associate of yours) and giving the scum info on the mason flip (from the mason counterclaim). The advantage to scum is obvious.
2. Blatant reaction testing. Even if no one flips, scum can narrow the pool of candidates to those who seem to be obviously confused by the mason backing up claim. Advantage: scum.
3. Gain massive towncred. When PG flips town, it appears as a town gambit to save a town player. You can claim VT who tried to draw scum shots.

Further cementing my belief that Greywing is scum lies precisely in what should have happened when he claimed; the scum SHOULD have tried to shoot him and failed. Now, admittedly, there wasn't much time between his claim and Om's counterclaim; BUT in that small timeframe, two CONFIRMED scum posted, without taking the shot at either Grey or PG (Whiskers and seilkops). Why wouldn't they take the shot on two masons? Sure, no flip had occurred, but the apparent attempt to save a mason partner by Greywing should have warranted an attempt (and anyone suggesting scum are just playing overly cautious, clearly haven't seen the totally unprompted shot by Whiskers that failed or the shot by seilkops before he'd even gotten to L-1). Despite the fact that two confirmed scum had seen this play out, no shots were taken.

Why were no shots taken? Because they knew Greywing was scum with them. Whiskers tries to subtly influence the town to go along with Greywing's gambit, by proposing (in post #276) that:

"Claiming masons is an incredibly bad move for scum. If one of you flips scum, the other one will be lynched immediately. I don't think PG is scum, regardless."

Whiskers is hedging his bets. If Greywing somehow gets lynched or flips on a missed shot, PG is then lined up to be mislynched to offset the scum loss. If PG flips, it is presumably going to clear Greywing (which, up until this point, most people seemed to have agreed with). Notice Greywing himself hasn't voted for a scum player all game, defended Sala as a town player, and attacked DJD, who is now my strongest townread. Furthermore, although Sala very rarely references Greywing personally, he began to attack me only AFTER I attacked Greywing. Seilkops also adds to the associative links in Post #278 by helping establish a connection between PG and Grey, which again is an advantage by either PG flipping town and giving Greywing towncred, or Greywing flipping scum and making PG an easy mislynch. Seilkops even tries to coach Greywing into not doing this again. In Post #352, who is Seil's biggest townread? Greywing.

In conclusion, Greywing's mason claim with PG was meant to both gain him towncred and draw out masons. This is exactly what he accomplished. The only flaw in his plan was in the absence of a shot against either him or PG, despite two scum who obviously fired rather indiscriminately posting before a counterclaim. Greywing wasn't shot at because he was scum. This is backed up by the early interplay between him and Sala, refinement and support of his plan by Whiskers, and coaching by seilkops.

Vote: Greywing
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Post Post #374 (ISO) » Sun Aug 12, 2012 1:29 pm

Post by Hyperion »

Greynarl is throwing his vote all over the place.
note posts 356 357 and 358. He votes Seil AFTER DJD, and i think he is distancing
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