Open 455 - Tit for Tat - OVER

[AngryPidgeon]

Cheery, if you are town, get your head out of your ass. My intro post was so fucking obvtown that it hurt. I don't think you are though, so that's ok. Your "Thanks for outing yourself as the other scum" post was frankly fake as hell.

And my point isn't that complicated. The scum apparently decided to CC the real j/k. Why would they have their j/k do that over their goon? If they trade goon for j/k, then they at least have a PR to float them the rest of the game. As opposed to not having a PR. The only reason I can think of that scum j/k would claim so fast today, would be if he feared MoI outing him and just wanted to preempt credit. Which would mostly apply to Guille. So ya. I'm not 100% caught up at all and I need to do some serious reading here before MoI comes off V/LA and give me a multiple choice exam.

P-edit: What was MoI's plan. Disturbed, if you are a VT then the team is Mhork/Guille prolly.

[Lord Mhork]

Any ideas on how we should lynch today?

Yeah, more on that in a minute but you probably are not going to like what is going to happen …

--

I tried to look at why grey was killed

, and decided out probably wasn't because of his suspicions which weren't very strong - his slot however was in klick's do not kill ever list, so I went and looked at that for possible night 2 targets and found myself and disturbed on said list, thus since I can't jail myself I jailed the other person on that list.

Thanks for confirming you are scum with the bolded Cherry. Because you are not the Vig and thus have no reason to know for certain that Bitmap was the Vig kill unless you are Mafia.

--

MoI, say that the mafia actually shot the director? What would that mean?

It would mean they are incredibly inept. Because after losing their RoleCop Day 2 they needed bodies laid out as fast as possible and killing the target I has specifically called for the Vig to kill only made sense if they had RoleCopped the director as Vig N1 (and we know this is not what happened). Because even if Cheery hadn’t slipped and confirmed he was Mafia the best course of action is to lynch Distrubed with the numbers alive we currently have. I’ll explain more in my next post.

Ah. That makes sense, I think.

And from what I understand of it, I like MoI's plan. It makes sense and looks like a pretty good winning strategy.

VOTE: Disturbed_One

I think calling out the scum team, claiming, and outing the Vig pretty well confirms that AngryPidgeon is up to speed.

[MagnaofIllusion]

PLEASE NO MORE VOTES WHILE I AM LA

Shamrock and I are the confirmed Town and I want to discuss things with him and officially finalize the plan before proceeding.

[AngryPidgeon]

I will investigate one of the two Jailkeeper claims and will be able to determine which claim is correct.

I just read what has been posted this game Day. I pretty much agree with MoI's plan and his suspects.

I also tend to think it isn't Mhork for reasons I stated before. Also the fact that Disturbed was jailed makes him probscum anyhow. Just based off what I know, I would speculate that MoI would be the most likely NK target so Disturbed getting jailed leads me to believe he probably targeted MoI. I don't see why scum would necessarily risk killing a vanilla at this point.

The only 2 things I had to say about MoI's plan are:
1.If Disturbed/mhork are the goon, then you won't be able to figure out which j/k is which (unless Im misunderstanding the RC role in this game). (Still I find the assumption here unlikely, but its still a possibility)
2. I'm town. Obviously I think Mhork should be shot on the off chance it isn't Disturbed, but I realize Mhork is only confscum to my eyes at that point so I understand if Shammy doesn't.

[Shamrock]

I think our lynch today is pretty clear-cut, both JKs have claimed to have targeted Disturbed which means there are three possibilities from least likely to most likely:

- Disturbed was the target, which literally makes no sense, Cheery's explanation aside (if Disturbed is scum then it's obv Cheery btw, he's clearly BSing to protect a buddy). MoI is the obvious target, now okay maybe they thought he would be jailkept, but as scum I would have killed literally any other player in this game over Disturbed. It's not like anyone really had him as obvtown apart from Klick and nobody was paying attention to Klick.
- The scum no-killed, which I guess is sort of vaguely possible if they knew they were going to claim JK but it seems unlikely to me that they would give up a NK for that especially because landing a kill last night would have put us in mylo
- Disturbed is scum, hurr durr

If somehow Disturbed is town then I won't kill tonight and we can decide between AP/Mhork tomorrow.

[Shamrock]

OH I guess a fourth possibility is that the director was the target but that seems even less likely than Disturbed being the target honestly

[Cheery Dog]

My reasoning why Disturbed would be town, was because I didn't see why guille who is now confirmed scum to me would have placed out his buddy and got himself into the postion where he would be counterclaimed.
Yes, it is a possible WIFOM move by him, since he is fakeclaiming the town JK which already put WIFOM in play by forcing me to claim (although I still would have given that I targeted Disturbed) This would mean I reacted exactly how scum guille would have wanted me to, but I see it as way too high a risk. If Disturbed is scum, then the kill was probably directed at MoI.

What I gave was my reasoning prior to the night, when I had thought the director was scum again. I'm not going to have changed my mind on why I performed the actions I performed after I had new evidence which meant my thought process was wrong, I can't change thoughts I've had in the past.

[Shamrock]

I mean if Disturbed flips scum then the game is literally a guaranteed town win so that discussion is mostly academic

[AngryPidgeon]

Cheery, any chance you crumbed at all? Mostly irrelevant question since the JKs are getting resolved last , but meh.

[Cheery Dog]

I forget after getting power roles that I may want to crumb stuff, however I guess where I have argued about when the jailkeeper should be claiming could be technically called crumbs as I, as the JK, have a highest opinion on when I should claim.

Spoiler:

After reviewing MoI's claim ideals, the only problem I see with that style may be a fake-JK claim where we haven't got rid of the scum-backup JK yet, which would mean we would be losing a PR and giving one to the scum team which could stop our other PR(s) from working, but otherwsie I am in agreeance with how any claims should be made.

Well hopefully we'll get rid of the backup JK and not force the town one to claim unless they need to (such as one scum left)

By the way all town PRs should claim and we wait for counter claims. That is all.

Why should be have them claim and expose themselves to the mafia kill tonight?
Have them claim tomorrow and not have the vig take a shot tonight would be better in my opinion. (especially if we end up mislynching again today)

@Mod, if we get to 3v3 with both the jailkeeper and the vig alive, does the game continue going?

@MoI; I asked the question, as I believe that's why we shouldn't have the JK claim yet.
as for my read of director, I had a look over them during the night and they seemed less scummy.

My guess to the team at the moment is nekoko, mhork and possibly potato. although there is a chance director may be part of it still - I'm not completely sure.

I also remind people of my doubts about the director at the start of day 2 after I had JK'ed him and a kill went through. - This was only changed after om said he was going to replace out and I realised that he would probably have been more likely to have submitted a kill if scum than director was.

[AngryPidgeon]

Urg, due to me being both an idiot and a moron, I don't have my laptop. Its stuck at a friends house for the time being. I guess I could catch up read on my phone.. I'll just have to steal my roommate's charger (mine also stuck at friend's house).

[guille2015]

7 are alive –

Town RoleCop (me)
Town Jailkeeper
Town Vig
VT times 2

Scum Backup Jailkeeper
Scum Goon

Live players include:
Angry_Pidgeon (A_P for short, hey coincidence)
Cheery Dog
MagnaofIllusion
Disturbed_One
guille2015
Lord Mhork
Shamrock

I will refer to myself as the JK and Cheery as SJK. This is because I want everyone to understand all the bases. Whether you are unsure of who is scum, would not matter for the purpose of this exercise. Also, A_P and L will be reffered to as VTA and VTB, which either could scum along with D1. MoI is RC and Sham is Vig.
Trying to figure out the best way to set the scenarios: At this point we have two options:

Lynch Disturbed_One

(Or any other VT, but a better chance of hitting scum with D1)

1. D1 is Scum (33%)
   
   1. JK jail SJK, No deaths, MoI confirms, Town Wins.
   
   
2. D1 is Town (67%)
   
   1. JK pick one of either RC or Vig with a flip of the coin. Mafia will likely do the same for a 50% chance of success. MoI should attempt to investigate one of the JK's to confirm, in the even that the coin flips Vig. Three results.
      
      1. No one dies. 50%
         
         1. Moi blocked (50%): Lynched VTA
            
            1. VTA is scum: Town Wins.
               
            2. VTA is town: JK blocks VTB or SJK, Mafia will kill Vig.
               
               • No deaths 50%: Town Wins.
                 
               • Vig Dies 50%: No Lynch possible and 50% chance of JK blocking actual Killer.
                 
                 • Kill blocked: Town cannot win. Best result is a Tie. 50%
                   
                 • Kill not Blocked: Town Loses. 50%
            
            
         2. Moi notBlocked (50%): Lynched SJK. JK Blocks VTA, Vig Kills VTB. Town Wins
         
         
      2. MoI dies. 25%, VTA Lynched
         
         1. VTA is scum. JK blocks SJK, Lynch SJK, Town wins.
            
         2. VTA is Town. Vig has to take the shot or Loose. Scum will attempt to Kill the vig, so in other for Town to Win, the JK needs to Jail the shooting scum and Vig needs to kill the other. Town wins 25%.
         
         
      3. Vig dies. 25%, VTA Lynched
         
         1. VTA is scum. JK blocks SJK, Lynch SJK, Town wins.
            
         2. VTA is Town. Mafia wins.
      
      
   2. JK picks one of VTA, VTB or SJK to Block. Per Cheery's suggestion. In this case scum will likely kill Vig because that will increase their chances of winning. as shown above. I won't do the rundown, because the numbers are similar to the above but with a less chance of town winning.

Lynching SJK

means town wins. Granted It's a 50% chance of winning or Losing from the point of view of those outside the JK Counterclaim.

The probabilities are done by Pure random selection of actions. Flipping the coin is suggested to avoid WIFOM interactions but the probabilities behind of the flipped coin tend to be the same of the educated WIFOM guesses. In general Lynching the claimed VTs required us to find the scum VT in Two lynches, else town losses. The chances are good, but I have to advocate for a Cheery Lynch for that guarantees a win.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Shamrock

– Do you feel comfortable with the following plans –

1. Shooting who you think is scum among Cheery and Guile if Distrubed flips scum.
2. Not shooting under any circumstance if Distrubed flips Town.

Please let me know because I want to make sure at least we are on the same page going into Night. If you don’t please elaborate on the course of action you want to take. I think reading the thread you do but I want our Ts crossed and Is dotted at this stage.

--

@Guile

– Frankly all you have done in Post 761 is re-lay out what I said in more bare-bones terms. Frankly we aren’t lynching either you or Cheery as that gives scum control of the Jailkeep if we lynch wrong which is the WORST course of action. Neither of you is getting lynched unless scum decides to out who is scum between you by killing the other.

--

1.If Disturbed/mhork are the goon, then you won't be able to figure out which j/k is which (unless Im misunderstanding the RC role in this game). (Still I find the assumption here unlikely, but its still a possibility)

I’ll check with the Mod on this but I don’t think, from the Role PMs, that this is the case. I expect that the Jailkeeper would scan Jailkeeper and the Backup would scan as such.

--

I believe that grey was the mafia kill because bitmap was suspected the previous day, I don't see mafia killing someone happily suspected the previous day and would be an easy wagon to set up asa counter wagon to their role cop again day 2.
There is also a post at the start of day 2 where I believe bitmap might have been soft claimed as the vig's target.

HerrR was suspected (at least by me, I could check Day 1 to follow up) and I didn’t suspect Bitmap so I don’t think your argument holds that much weight.

So I have to WIFOM which one of you or the vig is going to be the target instead of the night kill?
I think I'd rather attempt to WIFOM with the scum that is making the kill. (although I guess that is a 1/3 shot instead 1/2) This means if I choose correctly, then if you were the target of the kill you would still get a result, if I'm saving you by blocking you then you won't get the result that clears me.
I am aware that this is different to my attitude last night, however since sham won't be shooting anyway, if I'm agreeing to someone being scum, they won't be getting vigged, and therefore won't have to assume they're going to be the one that will take the killing shot.

I don’t care what you feel like WIFOMING. Sorry to be blunt but you have a 50 / 50 shot of being scum. If you are the Town Jailkeeper then this is a case where you need to nut up and follow a plan as outlined by confirmed Town since you are not such to anyone but yourself. It’s a hit to the ego but the path to basically either a Win or at worst a Draw is predicated on you following the plan if you are the JK.

Please commit that you will follow the plan in your next post

. Thanks!

--

So we can't lynch one of the JKs, because our chances of victory greatly increase with one. What about A_Potato? Has he been confirmed at all?

So answer me the following question – do you think that Scum chose you (who had a sizeable wagon Day 1 and thus has proven to be mislynchable) as their Nightkill target over myself, Shamrock or LordM?

@Everyone

– please pay attention to what you are not seeing in this post and the followup to AngryP at Post 749. What is missing? The consideration that LordM can possibly be scum. If he were a VT and looking at the pool of other players who also contain scum he should be including LordM in his “Let’s lynch them instead” group.

Yet he doesn’t do so – he specifically makes it a “You versus Me” argument with AngryP in 749. Which is a scum omission – he knows my RoleCop on LordM is truly VT.

[Shamrock]

Yes, I'm in full agreement.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Yes, I'm in full agreement.

Good. Be prepared vote momentarily.

[AngryPidgeon]

Full speed ahead!

VOTE: Disturbed_One

Also not liking Guille's last post, but thats irrelevant since we aren't lynching claimed JKs today, and if (when) disturbed flips scum, we pretty much auto-win. Guille and Cheery are both determined to look not-town as possible >.>

L - 2 I think.

[MagnaofIllusion]

VOTE: Distrubed

Night Action Plan and Going Forward Points

–

If Distrubed flips Scum

–

1. The Town Jailkeeper targets the counter-claiming final scum to prevent the scum Nightkill.
2. The Town Vig targets the player they think of the two JK claims to be most likely to be scum.
3. I investigate the JK claim I think most likely to be Town (as a side note – the Mod has confirmed that the scum JK investigates discretely from the Town JK).

If no-one dies overnight Shamrock confirms who he targeted (should be scum if everyone follows the plan) . I will also indicate my results for double redundancy. Town wins via lynch.

If Distrubed flips Town

–

1. The Town Vig does not shoot.
2. I investigate one of the JK claims to sort out who is lying.
3. The Town JK randomly selects one of myself / Shamrock (RoleCop or Vig) to Jail and thus protect.

Regardless of how the Night plays out in this scenario Town MUST only lynch from VT claims (AngryP / LordM) unless the scum kills one of the JK claimants. This assures scum do not get their hands on the Jailkeep power unless they are willing to lose a member.

[AngryPidgeon]

3. I investigate the JK claim I think most likely to be Town (as a side note – the Mod has confirmed that the scum JK investigates discretely from the Town JK).

[Shamrock]

MoI:

1. Off the top of your head, which of AP/Mhork would you lynch tomorrow if Disturbed flips town?
2. Are you aware you've been spelling "Disturbed" wrong for most of the game?

[MagnaofIllusion]

MoI:

1. Off the top of your head, which of AP/Mhork would you lynch tomorrow if Disturbed flips town?
2. Are you aware you've been spelling "Disturbed" wrong for most of the game?

1. I'd be inclined to lynch AP simply for his predecessors. Om does replace out as scum (Kingdom Hearts Large theme is my personal recent example) and his "MoI is a jerk and makes me like the game less" excuse was full of crap. Looking at VCA with you as Town and keeping Disturbed as Town in mind doesn't unfortunately tell me much.

2. I'm dyslexic and a horrible speller so that would not surprise me.

[AngryPidgeon]

Im town. But I don't think its an issue because disturbed is going to flip scum.

Also, is it just me or is Guille trying to draw attention to the JKs as a way to stop this lynch?

[Shamrock]

Ok, I am leaning that direction too, although obviously I'll take a closer look if I'm alive tomorrow.

VOTE: Disturbed_One

[AngryPidgeon]

Shammy, Im town as hell right now. I don't always bust out my "Im so obvtown, you are stupid card" but when I do Im town, damnit >.>

[AngryPidgeon]

But we just won the game, so w/e.

[Shamrock]

My impressions of you are tainted by your slot