Open 457: Double Day Unlimited - GAME OVER!

[CF Riot]

Vote Count

NOPE

[03] Not Voting: Errbody

With 3 alive, it's 2 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2012-11-29 12:00:00).

[buldermar]

shos, can you link me to some more games? Maybe 3 where you're scum and 3 where you're town. You don't have to survive in them until LyLo. They don't have to be the most recent. I cannot disclose at this time what I'm looking for.

[Voidedmafia]

Prod-dodge. Bit busy with non-mafia things atm (and I was more focused on another Mafia game, too).

Buld, are you trying to discern patterns in Shos's play pre-LyLo and in LyLo?

[Voidedmafia]

*sigh* this lylo is going to be long and hard to determine >< can anyone just vote me and make my life easier?

I was focused on other things so I forgot to ask, but why would that make it easier for you? I mean, I get the general principle, but since you've indicated before that you'd cross-vote with the person who voted you I don't really see how that'd make it easier.

[shos]

Right so I've been rereading Voide's ISO and will go over bulder's soon. meanwhile, stuff I bumped into and/or want to say:

Voided's ISO give me no reason at all to vote him. if he is really the scum, then his play is wonderful.
now:

I will under no circumstances postpone hammring the person I think is the most likely to be scum at

any

point in this game.

So...You wouldn't wait for a person at L-1 to answer any remaining questions if you think they're scum?

This is not an issue in this setup because there are no power rules. I don't get why this is so astonishing difficult for you to comprehend.

He could still be town? THere's a

reason

that the idea of "declaring intent to hammer" has been given out by most ICs before. One reason is to allow for potential claims (which is obviously not applicable here), and the other is to actually allow for the person in question to actually answer anything directed toward him (if there is anything), and/or to allow other players to discuss things prior to the mod potentially calling an end to the day as soon as the hammer is thrown down. Consider it as last-minute affirmation of reads, or something like that.

I mean, if you think someone is scum and want to hammer, and then they produce a town-like response to a question, certainly you'd have to reassess your opinion on the player at the very least? Depending on the strength of the response, you could almost think they weren't scummy. (depending again on the strength of the town-like response as well as the strength of your read on the player; obviously if you REALLY think he's scum then nothing short of a townslip or conftown reveal of some sort will change your mind, but still.)

bulder, any quickhammer robs town of information and possibly makes a mistake that town could avoid doing. just like uctitron did.

Also what I wanted to say.

I was thinking to myself earlier today whether I should vote Mr. K, but decided to wait and see if he would jump oni the uctriton00 wagon. As expected, he did - and without much clarification as to why. He hasn't been participating much in ongoing debates. Furthermore, I have some fairly strong town reads.. on you and Rainbow in particular, and possible Voided.

But, he did clarify as to why: He thought about the hammer and the reasoning behind it, and couldn't see how any way he looks at it sounds good/townie. Why are you ignoring this clear reason?

Unvote: Shos
Vote: Buldermar

Void, the issue with postponing hammering is that others might unvote while you still want him hammered, which could lead to yourself getting lynched instead. The last person you want lynched in this setup is yourself, no matter your alignment. You're assuming that waiting for the person to respond to one question will often change the game drastically - I find that it influences the game to a much lesser degree than do allowing others to unvote and allow for the possibility of yourself getting lynched instead.

I didn't ignore his clear reason, I just didn't comment on it because it was obvious that it would be the reason he'd be using as scum. It's an easy go-to solution that figures to be widely accepted based on previous conversations in the game and doesn't require much deliberate thinking - I'm very convinced that he's scum.

"the issue with postponing hammering is that...which could lead to yourself getting lynched instead".

As town, when you can hammer, in ANY game at all, do you EVER think about you-possibly-being-lynched in your reasons to hammer or not hammer?

So lynch shos already.

Well, lessee:

I think you're town (mainly PoE. Shouldn't have done that quickhammer, but...)
Mr. K is a middling-scum read (aka not one I'd put my faith in on LyLo)
that just leaves Shos and Gunny. I still believe in my Gunny case more, but it will depend on how Shos develops his own case.

P-EDIT: Unless Mr. K comes in with a surprisingly good post, all we're waiting on is if Shos will deliver on his Gunny case.

So I have successfully delievered my case on Gunny and got him lynched. that's regarding the Pedit.
And you think Bulder is town via PoE and therefore by PoE it left me and gunny?? how does that work??

[shos]

shos, can you link me to some more games? Maybe 3 where you're scum and 3 where you're town. You don't have to survive in them until LyLo. They don't have to be the most recent. I cannot disclose at this time what I'm looking for.

just how far back do you want me to go.? I really don't have that many games. just go over my topics.

*sigh* this lylo is going to be long and hard to determine >< can anyone just vote me and make my life easier?

I was focused on other things so I forgot to ask, but why would that make it easier for you? I mean, I get the general principle, but since you've indicated before that you'd cross-vote with the person who voted you I don't really see how that'd make it easier.

well obviously the fact that one becomes conftown tells me who the scum is, so that I need to work only on proving he is scum, and not on finding who he is first.

will start bulder's ISO now.

[Voidedmafia]

Your case on Gunny (and my rebuttal which helped in that regard) was good. I won't deny that. However, both of Gunny's cases (on me and on you) are way too forced and way too contrived, his case on you moreso than his case on me. His play when he replaced in was very off-putting and clearly didn't give him the towncred he wanted (hell, IIRC no one called him town for that), so he hoped to make a case on me to at the very least get some towncred and/or get a mislynch put through, either in his stead or through such a link to me via the case.

However, when THAT fell through (the case itself IMO was shot down easily, you (Shos) thought it was bullshit and so did a couple others), Gunny turned to his scumpartner with a desperation case, not really meant to get towncred from what I can tell, but more to try and give you a leg up come LyLo with the possible expectation that you could at least stave off suspicion to finish the mislynch on me that he wanted.

Besides, a scumteam of gunny/Buld just feels so outlandish. Sure, posts like 514 give a good distancing link between them (Gunny's apparant reason for unvote was because Buld pushed for the quickhammer, which feels fairly odd coming off his case in his preceding post), but there's not really a whole lot of interaction between either of them. Buldermar himself doesn't directly talk about or to Gunny at all while the latter's alive, only mentioning in 558 how Gunny's 513 could be fabricated (which I'm already suspecting it is, on top of how shallow it is). It could be some kind of attempt to get away from Gunny post-mortem, but why not do that while Gunny's alive? Even moreso, why, again, mention him now when Buld didn't do it at all D2? It doesn't really make much sense to me, and as a result a Gunny/Buld scumteam is off the table.

[shos]

Forgive me if an explicit rule exists; I couldn't find one. What happens should two people at L1 receive a vote within the same post (e.g. if more than one person being voted by ChaosOmega in post#20 were on L1)?

why did you ask this?

VOTE: Venrob

That's L1.

...eh wait...didn't you have a reason to (not put people in L-1 because you want others to do that and quickhammer)??

buldermar gave no reason but announced l-1.

Voting everyone arbitrarily is suboptimal. I give you credit for knowing why.

and here you...what? you 'give him credit for knowing why' you're voting him? can you explain to me why you were voting venrob??

Voided - don't answer this question for him

Because determination of alignments should never happen based on seing someone eagerly analysing the thread during nighttime.

Of course not. No one really does that here, anyways. Hence why this is related to one's personal commitment that these games require and not anything related to theory.

Bulder: From this, correct me if I'm wrong, I infer that you do your analysis in nighttime, right? so what did you get to during the last night? or is that the you-blame-me-for-your-quickhammer part?


ninja'd by voided, a sec

[shos]

Your case on Gunny (and my rebuttal which helped in that regard) was good. I won't deny that. However, both of Gunny's cases (on me and on you) are way too forced and way too contrived, his case on you moreso than his case on me. His play when he replaced in was very off-putting and clearly didn't give him the towncred he wanted (hell, IIRC no one called him town for that), so he hoped to make a case on me to at the very least get some towncred and/or get a mislynch put through, either in his stead or through such a link to me via the case.

you do realize that you yourself said that three of the points in his case which were around half the case are things you agreed with? so how comes now you say that it was too forced and contrived?

However, when THAT fell through (the case itself IMO was shot down easily, you (Shos) thought it was bullshit and so did a couple others), Gunny turned to his scumpartner with a desperation case, not really meant to get towncred from what I can tell, but more to try and give you a leg up come LyLo with the possible expectation that you could at least stave off suspicion to finish the mislynch on me that he wanted.

I'm not getting this. what are you referring with 'THAT'? I thought you were referring the case on *me*? but if THAT fell through and it made him build the case on me, it means that THAT and the case on me are different things. gunny did not do anything particular in his game iirc except going after me in lylo. my reread was completely irrelevant to his case; eventually I voted him mainly because I figured there was only one scum between you three, so how does his doing give me towncred in any way?

Besides, a scumteam of gunny/Buld just feels so outlandish. Sure, posts like 514 give a good distancing link between them (Gunny's apparant reason for unvote was because Buld pushed for the quickhammer, which feels fairly odd coming off his case in his preceding post), but there's not really a whole lot of interaction between either of them. Buldermar himself doesn't directly talk about or to Gunny at all while the latter's alive, only mentioning in 558 how Gunny's 513 could be fabricated (which I'm already suspecting it is, on top of how shallow it is). It could be some kind of attempt to get away from Gunny post-mortem, but why not do that while Gunny's alive? Even moreso, why, again, mention him now when Buld didn't do it at all D2? It doesn't really make much sense to me, and as a result a Gunny/Buld scumteam is off the table.

he would do that when gunny's alive because by then my case on him was already made. his partner was going down anyway, so he softbussed and then bussed for the cred. the kill on Mr.K is wierd tho, since that means 100% there was bussing, which means nobody gets cred from that lynch(I'dlike to think that I do since I created the case but doesn't look like it).

other than that - a shos/gunny team does not look outlandish? IIRC, it was me who always pushed for prodding/replacing chaos. a lurker/flaker scum rarely gets caught until they start talking, since people usually don't like to policylynch, and it's obvious that he survives because why would scum kill him. chaos did literally nothing this game; only post 20 which is nothing. I really can't see how a me/gunny team works better than bulder/gunny :\

[Voidedmafia]

You have REALLY got to start separate out the quotes and replies. It looks like a giant wall of text rather than seaparated replies -_-.

Your case on Gunny (and my rebuttal which helped in that regard) was good. I won't deny that. However, both of Gunny's cases (on me and on you) are way too forced and way too contrived, his case on you moreso than his case on me. His play when he replaced in was very off-putting and clearly didn't give him the towncred he wanted (hell, IIRC no one called him town for that), so he hoped to make a case on me to at the very least get some towncred and/or get a mislynch put through, either in his stead or through such a link to me via the case.

you do realize that you yourself said that three of the points in his case which were around half the case are things you agreed with? so how comes now you say that it was too forced and contrived?

Just because I agree with some points doesn't mean the case can't feel forced. It just like you can be dead-on with a read, but no one will bother listening to you when you've been belligerent, antagonistic, and been on everyone's bad side the entire game (hypothetically).

Gunny himself wasn't acting like that, of course, but he was scummy prior to making this case and after making it. Me agreeing with his points doesn't always mean my read will change (and in this case they didn't).

However, when THAT fell through (the case itself IMO was shot down easily, you (Shos) thought it was bullshit and so did a couple others), Gunny turned to his scumpartner with a desperation case, not really meant to get towncred from what I can tell, but more to try and give you a leg up come LyLo with the possible expectation that you could at least stave off suspicion to finish the mislynch on me that he wanted.

I'm not getting this. what are you referring with 'THAT'? I thought you were referring the case on *me*?

PARSE CORRECTLY, PLEASE! (and think for a moment) Which case came first: His case on me or his case on you?

Answer that, and you've answered your own question via logical PoE.

eventually I voted him mainly because I figured there was only one scum between you three, so how does his doing give me towncred in any way?

IIRC it didn't? It just made him scummier than you.

he would do that when gunny's alive because by then my case on him was already made.

Huh?

other than that - a shos/gunny team does not look outlandish? IIRC, it was me who always pushed for prodding/replacing chaos. a lurker/flaker scum rarely gets caught until they start talking, since people usually don't like to policylynch, and it's obvious that he survives because why would scum kill him. chaos did literally nothing this game; only post 20 which is nothing. I really can't see how a me/gunny team works better than bulder/gunny :\

So you're saying that a Shos/Gunny team doesn't work because a Chaos/Shos team doesn't work, even though Chaos and gunny are two different people who acted in two completely different ways (even if they're in the same slot)? How does that work?

[shos]

You'll have to excuse me for not remembering gunny's case on you. I'll make my reading~

@second-to-last quote: him=gunny.
@last: my point is that I really can't see anyone working well in association to gunny; so I don't understand why you think that bulder/gunny is more unlikely than me/gunny. mainly comes of frustration, there's no real logic here..

[buldermar]

Buld, are you trying to discern patterns in Shos's play pre-LyLo and in LyLo?

Yes I am.

[buldermar]

As town, when you can hammer, in ANY game at all, do you EVER think about you-possibly-being-lynched in your reasons to hammer or not hammer?

Yes, unless I'm virtually a confirmed town. You give me the impression that you're surprised?

[shos]

ah crap I lost my post ><

anyway I said that I went through gunny's ISO and it appears that the case on you was even more crap than the one on me, basically just 'he kissed ass'. and yes it was before the case on me >_>

what I lost my post for was that I noticed how bulder is barely mentioned in gunny's entire ISO:

I'm willing to vote bulder for the quickhammer.

Lol nope.

this and

So lynch shos already.

Hmmm...

UNVOTE: All

this is all the times he is mentioned.

[shos]

As town, when you can hammer, in ANY game at all, do you EVER think about you-possibly-being-lynched in your reasons to hammer or not hammer?

Yes, unless I'm virtually a confirmed town. You give me the impression that you're surprised?

well duh? if you're not being voted and/or not a counterwagon, why on earth would you hammer-to-not-get-lynched???

[shos]

erm bulder, answer my questions please

[shos]

It also seems that gunny is almost never mentioned directly in bulder's ISO. either when he quotes me, or VCs, lol. I searched for 'gunny', 'shot', 'drmy'.

It also seems that bulder was on all mislynches and wasn't on the scumlynch. interesting. I wanna go through Mr. K's thoughts and see if the NK has any info to give us.

[buldermar]

Forgive me if an explicit rule exists; I couldn't find one. What happens should two people at L1 receive a vote within the same post (e.g. if more than one person being voted by ChaosOmega in post#20 were on L1)?

why did you ask this?

VOTE: Venrob

That's L1.

...eh wait...didn't you have a reason to (not put people in L-1 because you want others to do that and quickhammer)??

buldermar gave no reason but announced l-1.

Voting everyone arbitrarily is suboptimal. I give you credit for knowing why.

and here you...what? you 'give him credit for knowing why' you're voting him? can you explain to me why you were voting venrob??

Voided - don't answer this question for him

Because determination of alignments should never happen based on seing someone eagerly analysing the thread during nighttime.

Of course not. No one really does that here, anyways. Hence why this is related to one's personal commitment that these games require and not anything related to theory.

Bulder: From this, correct me if I'm wrong, I infer that you do your analysis in nighttime, right? so what did you get to during the last night? or is that the you-blame-me-for-your-quickhammer part?


ninja'd by voided, a sec

1) Clarification of this type prevents scum from doing something "by accident", such as lynching two people at once, that would hurt town. I didn't exactly think through all the scenarios, I just concluded that it would be useful to know for sure what the rule is.
2) What you are insinuating here is silly. It does not matter who puts the final vote, but if I think me putting someone on L-1 would lead to someone else unvoting (which was the case with Empking), I'd rather do the quickhammer myself to avoid anyone unvoting.
3) He deliberately did something that is always suboptimal for town for no reason and I gave him credit for knowing why it is always suboptimal for town.

This one should be self-explanatory, although in this case there is a small chance that Venrob votes everyone because he knows that he is town, which effectively skews the alignment of everyone else towards scum, and doesn't have any reads to otherwise change this distribution. It's still suboptimal from a global vantage point.

4) I don't have a definitive preference with respect to when I do my analysis, but I less frequently open games to analyse during nighttime because I can't post my analysis instantly.

[shos]

...well there goes nothing, created myself more wifom, lol. Mr. K explicitly said he thinks bulder is town and I am scum. also said that voided was not scummy, "so - town, I guess".

responding to bulder in a sec

[shos]

Can you expand for me on why you voted Venrob?

[buldermar]

As town, when you can hammer, in ANY game at all, do you EVER think about you-possibly-being-lynched in your reasons to hammer or not hammer?

Yes, unless I'm virtually a confirmed town. You give me the impression that you're surprised?

well duh? if you're not being voted and/or not a counterwagon, why on earth would you hammer-to-not-get-lynched???

If I think there is a chance that I may be lynched or that someone else whom I consider very town may be lynched.

[buldermar]

erm bulder, answer my questions please

What questions?

[buldermar]

Can you expand for me on why you voted Venrob?

He voted everyone and put a person on L-1 without announcing it.

[shos]

also got another one in second glance - at 2: so you're saying that with empking, you'd thought that someone will unvote if you vote(who?), and with venrob, on D1, on page 2, you thought that nobodyw ould unvote??

pedit:
So in the empking case, or generally in the case where you say that if you think target is scum then you should quickhammer, you always had a strong townread who is likely to be lynched instead? can you tell me who in the empking case?
the questions 1-4 which you've answered.

another pedit:
so why is that voteworthy in your words?

[buldermar]

It also seems that gunny is almost never mentioned directly in bulder's ISO. either when he quotes me, or VCs, lol. I searched for 'gunny', 'shot', 'drmy'.

It also seems that bulder was on all mislynches and wasn't on the scumlynch. interesting. I wanna go through Mr. K's thoughts and see if the NK has any info to give us.

You make it sound like I was being active and decided not to vote. This is not the case - the scumlynch happened quite rapidly and I was not online at the time.