Micro 148: 50/50 Mafia (OVER)

[zachattack]

Kid A, I'm confused by this.

if you are going to get pissed when people attack your FOS don't do an FOS

I can't think of a situation where I wouldn't want to claim to be town

-If I'm vanilla town I would just be telling the truth
-If I'm a power role I would be making sure the scum don't know I have a power role and just act as though I were vanilla town
-If I'm scum I would want to act like I'm a villager so that people don't vote for me

You were claiming to not be mafia, you weren't claiming vanilla townie. Where does this talk about power roles come from?

[zachattack]

if you are going to get pissed when people attack your FOS don't do an FOS

I can't think of a situation where I wouldn't want to claim to be town

-If I'm vanilla town I would just be telling the truth
-If I'm a power role I would be making sure the scum don't know I have a power role and just act as though I were vanilla town
-If I'm scum I would want to act like I'm a villager so that people don't vote for me

also newearth you keep tossing around WIFOM
"WIFOM is the circular reasoning that results from trying to determine the choices of an opponent who acted with full knowledge that their behavior would be subject to scrutiny."
I didn't post it with full knowledge that my behaviour would be subject to scrutiny because posting as if I were town is what I would do regardless of my role

and lastly you seem to think defending yourself is a scumtell - as town my wincon is that I win when all the threats are dead
If I let people cast suspicion over me and I don't defend it I can't expect someone else to argue my case for me - and if there's no counter to your suspicion then I'm likely to be lynched which would not help me achieve my wincon

That's not a vanilla town claim. His FOS was silly, and should have been dismissed by you as such. But bringing up "If I'm a power role I would be making sure the scum don't know I have a power role and just act as though I were vanilla town" is completely irrelevant. There's nothing in your original post or his FOS about a power role or lack thereof. It feels off to me that you would bring that up.

[zachattack]

I don't know why that quote showed up there. That wasn't intentional and isn't relevant.

[zachattack]

Nope. In response to TNE's FOS, KidA is either a townie saying he doesn't want mafia to control the anonymous vote, or he's scum pretending he doesn't want mafia controlling the anonymous vote to look town. Power roles don't come into that at all, so it's very strange for him to bring it up.

I think his FOS was silly. I have a townie read on him though. His FOS is exactly the type of townie overreaching that mafias love to take advantage of.

Also, Hydras are annoying.

[zachattack]

My last post was in response to rolefishing accusation.

b/c its a safe vote w/o pressure

Is this in response to this?

And why exactly is that a no-no, at least if one does other stuff and isn't using it as an excuse to seem active? Also, no scum meta, sorry to disappoint.

[zachattack]

I have no issue with KX calling out TNE for FOSing KidA but not him, the omission is something worth asking about. Ultimately KX seems to have come to the same conclusion I have about TNE: weak player, but townie. Had I been in the game at that point, my posts would have progressed along the same lines as KX I think.

[zachattack]

TNE- whether it's OMGUS or counter-OMGUS, it's still bad, and you should feel bad.
Furthermore, there will be no signing of posts. We both dislike the idea.

Can we post more relevant stuff now?

If you want to play as one person, play as one person. No "My other head said that about KidA, lets wait for him to explain it". Be prepared to back each other up, or clarify who's posting what.

Vote:Hamlet

I think Head A couldn't defend Head B's post on KidA because the reasoning was scummy even to A.

[zachattack]

If you disagree with me on KX, then shouldn't you be all over me and KidA?

I was questioning KidA at this time. And I disagree with your KX read. Doesn't make you look scummy though.

[zachattack]

TNE- whether it's OMGUS or counter-OMGUS, it's still bad, and you should feel bad.
Furthermore, there will be no signing of posts. We both dislike the idea.

Can we post more relevant stuff now?

If you want to play as one person, play as one person. No "My other head said that about KidA, lets wait for him to explain it". Be prepared to back each other up, or clarify who's posting what.

Vote:Hamlet

I think Head A couldn't defend Head B's post on KidA because the reasoning was scummy even to A.

Actually I could sheep this for reasons that:

1) Gut feeling
2) I feel that this is fuzzy's play
3) This feel's like fuzzy is scum

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Hamlet

I have a feeling

...that tonight's gonna be a good night~

Come along now, you can do better than this. In fact, you'll

have to

.

Let's hear a real case.

any thoughts on what zach said?

Who cares about what Zach said.

Yep. His reasoning was ridiculous.

You do realize that a hydra is a combination of two people, right? Which means there are two brains working alongside each other. If you think we're going to be in agreement ALL the time, then you have another thing coming.

Yes I know. But if one or the other becomes obvious... then yeah.

Anyway, sorry for the inactivity, just got Fire Emblem: Awakening and BioShock Infinite, so yeah, playing them.

Oh god another fire emblem game? Don't tell me when a character dies, they permanently die. Or else I will hate fire emblem forever until I'm dead

I thought you cared about what I said, since you sheeped it.

[zachattack]

^^ So, nothing useful and trying to look helpful. More votes, plz.

Oh and what's the case on KX? I think I missed that part.

The only thing he did, was the fence-sitting on you. All other stuff is just trying to look helpful. He's just skating by.

If you disagree with me on KX, then shouldn't you be all over me and KidA?

I was questioning KidA at this time. And I disagree with your KX read. Doesn't make you look scummy though.

._.
You said, that mafia loves to take advantage of theNE's FOS on Kid A. You never questioned anyone about it. So:
If you disagree with me on KX, then shouldn't you be all over me and KidA?

I have no issue with your interactions with TNE or KX. I don't like KidA. I like Hamlet even less though.

And KX is prod voting the guy I replaced. He should pay more attention, but I don't see how that's relevant do your questioning of me.

[zachattack]

I was pretty confident about voting TNE earlier but now not so much since his vote on Hamlet has pretty sound reasoning

What do you like about TNE's reasoning?

[zachattack]

@Mod: Two questions. Can scum daytalk? And what happens if the anonymous vote finishes in a tie?

[zachattack]

So TNE thinks I'm right about Hamlet. But he doesn't like my reasoning. But he doesn't have a reason of his own.

Hmmm.

[zachattack]

I'm going to have to do a scum meta on TNE I guess. Lame. He feels like village idiot.

[zachattack]

It seems my dear other head has forgotten about this game.

For the record, it won't be hard to tell us apart. I'm the slightly less vocabulary-inclined head.

Oh, hey everyone!

Alright, Kid A, you're not looking so hot, man. What gives? Is there something you need to tell us?

Other head here. My basic explanation of why Kid A isn't looking hot is because I know he can do better than that. However, TNE, OMGUS much?

@Hamlet, why the bandwagon on what new earth said?

What the deuce?

I voted first, and as an RVS vote to boot. How is that bandwagoning?

[zachattack]

I don't like the progression of the first two posts I quoted there. There was nothing particularly untoward from Kid A at that time. That 116 is the best he could come up with as an explanation is all sorts of shady, hydra or not. The fact that we had a bunch of posts from Head B staying away from Head A was just icing. I also don't like 68 because it seems like he's feigning ignorance over what he's being questioned on. I like my vote.

I promised to scum meta TNE. I am busy and haven't done this yet. I will try tonight.

[zachattack]

Done meta on TNE. Won't vote there. Still like Ham for scum. Willing to vote KX for self preservation, I'm null on him though.

Won't claim under any circumstance in this game. Neither should anyone else just because its L-1. Hammer isn't necessarily death, so L-1 doesn't take on the same connotation.

[zachattack]

I voted Hamlet. Told you so.

[zachattack]

1. Scum cannot daytalk.

City voter is not clear. They couldn't collaborate.

I agree that scum most likely voted for KX there however, and that KX is clear.

[zachattack]

Lol I knew it was Hamlet.

Anyways... who dafuq voted for me?

So you voted for him right?

That leaves Hyp and Moth to claim their votes.

[zachattack]

That's L-2 with people I'm confident are townies as the voters. I'd wait for Hyperion before that gets pushed further. Day started 9 hours ago, I'm not concerned by his absence yet.

[zachattack]

Vote:Hyperion

He's not afk. Not much new content for him to catch up on. Games waiting on him.

[zachattack]

@Mod: What happens if somebody doesn't send in their anonymous vote in the 48 hours?

[zachattack]

Ok, thought so, just wanted confirmation and it wasn't in the opening post.

KX, who was your other target?

[zachattack]

I don't trust KX.

And yes, I do realize how bad this looks for me. Hopefully the anonymous votes will help to clean me a little, unlikely that 7/9 anonymous votes would be on mafia and the 2 on different people when voting is anonymous etc.

Situation didn't look bad for you at all, it looked like scum voted you. Why you so worried?

Inspected City, so yeah. Damn. City, why you play like that?

Anyway, mafia gain the most out of a non-mafia player being lynched, and as such would most likely try to control the lynch. This makes it seem like they would have all voted the same player. Of the votes, the only clustering were on Hamlet, who flipped scum, and so was most likely not who the mafia voted for, and Me. However, if PimHel claims to have voted me, it means we probably only have one mafia left, or PimHel is mafia. Also, we can probably assume whoever voted City is clean.

The other option is that both City and Hamlet flaked on the anonymous vote, and so ended up self voting.

Prescient guess. It's obvious that's what happened now, I dont think anyone lied about their vote, but it was a stretch at the time unless you and Ham were the scum team and you knew he self voted. You also knew the active town were all on you two so it was likely that CE flaked. I thought you were scums choice for anon lynch, but looking back, I think the 6 active townies were just really on the ball in the anon stage.

Vote:KX

[zachattack]

He also targeted the person who died, and the person who I personally believe made the most sense for a mafia kill, Moth. That pre-empts a tracker result. And he didn't bother to investigate the guy who he had a scum or VI read on.

[zachattack]

That's actually the same reasoning that led me to look closer at KX, the why aren't Pim or Hyp lying? Hams partner knows Ham self voted, so it would have been fairly easy to claim that. So the fact that nobody did makes me think the KX voters are as town as the Hamlet voters.

[zachattack]

You're misunderstanding. I'm not saying "Why investigate Moth, he'll probably die", I'm saying I don't believe he tried to investigate you, I believe he tried to kill you. I have no issue with cop KX making the choices KX did other than I found it strange he didn't include TNE, who was seeking replacement. I just found it convenient his targets were the dead guy and the guy I as scum would have killed. You were the most obvious townie in my eyes. Everybody else looked lynchable, nobody wanted to vote you. Scum wins by surrounding themselves with lynchable townies. As for trackers, who's to say they wouldn't get both attempted targets? In a new setup like this, making an assumption either way is risky. If KX is scum fake claiming cop then the safest move is to claim his actual targets.

[zachattack]

Why do you keep bringing up that Hamlet's partner 'knows' he selfvoted? You quoted that scum can't daytalk.

You're right, KX predicting the two self votes before it was clear that's what happened threw me off. Retract that, less suspicious of KX now.

[zachattack]

KX, while you're answering questions, where did your intuition that Ham and CE self voted come from? That was uncanny.

[zachattack]

If there are 3 mafia, then KX is town, scum is entirely self contained in the group that voted for KX. If its two, then KX is possible scum. But given the scenarios, his cop claim, and that my biggest reason for suspecting him was off, KX gets one more day.

Vote:Hyperion

Him and Ham never really acknowledged each other. In post #220, he treats me like a compromise candidate for deadline when no one had voted me yet, despite Ham being at L-2 and not having done anything to warrant a town read. That got the bandwagon going. Further, scum has to be frustrated by what happened yesterday. It looked like me and KX were up and whoever survived would be lynchbait today, and then all of a sudden Hams dead and the two scummy townies are looking pretty good. I'd stop caring in that situation, and it looks like that's what he's done.

[zachattack]

CityElectric, Town 50/50 Jailkeeper, has been killed Night 1.

Day 2 begins now and ends 2/29 at 3PM. It's now four to lynch.

February 29th? 3 years is a tiny bit excessive for a day phase.

[zachattack]

I suppose I could have gone with TNE, but personally I was hoping they would be lynched off anyway at some point.

As for why I didn't inspect you specifically, you had, as mentioned, had your vote on him, which initially didn't seem like something I thought you would do as a scum partner.

Your reason for not investigating TNE seems to have changed.

[zachattack]

No guaranteed win, but there's sense in there. I'd prefer Pimhel to TNE in the anon, but I mostly want Hyperion dead today.

If lynchee is town: You investigate two survivors of TNE/Pim/Hyp. If you get a scum result, we lynch that person and you. If you get a town result, we lynch the other and you.

If lynchee is scum and game continues: You still investigate survivors. We should know who final scum is at that point. We lynch them, and anon no lynch. That will give us 3 coin flips.

[zachattack]

Null read on Pim, town read on TNE. I just don't think TNE is scum, so if it's not you or Hyp, I think it's Pim. That said, I'm pretty confident it is you or Hyp, so I'm not going to fight too hard if the majority wants to put up Hyp and TNE, as long as Hyp goes up.

[zachattack]

If scum Zach had acted the way I did day 1, he would have had no choice but to anon vote his partner Ham and hope for the best. But I wouldn't have put myself in that position if I were scum. Distancing is one thing. I'll certainly bus if I have to. But to tunnel on my partner so hard in this setup makes no sense. I would have given myself options so that I didn't have to vote my partner anonymously.

As for the activity shift, numerous reasons. My read on Ham was good, but I was nullish on everyone else. Ham didn't post much of interest to dissect, and there's only so many ways I can say "I didn't like his comment on Kid A, I didn't like his head passing the buck, and I didn't like the eventual answer that was given". As well, I was in 3 games during most of Day 1. From the start of Day 2 until this morning, I've only been in one. And being right about Hamlet got me excited.

As for not minimizing the lynch pool, both moth and KidA could have gotten away with KX votes. Kid told us that he was going to anon vote Ham, but much like me, I don't think he forces that if he's Hams partner. They are my bottom two suspects by a lot.

[zachattack]

And he didn't say a word about Ham. If he claimed to vote Ham, it'd be an obvious lie.

Lucky for you, I can't discuss one of those games yet as it's ongoing. Because it shows a whole different Zach.

Hmm?

As for my TNE stance from early Day 1, I questioned Kid A's response to the FOS. KX went through the same progression as I did on TNE before I replaced, so I had no issue with him. And yes, I didn't like TNE's reason for voting Ham. Which was no reason but gut. However, he seems a lot more like village idiot than scum.

[zachattack]

This was a fun game once upon a time.

I won't be anon voting Pimhel. He's bothered to post in the last week. I'd rather lose to active scum then inactive scum. That vote count shit was weak, and my town read is based on meta, so it's something I could be wrong about. And if Pim and TNE are both townie, I'd rather TNE on the block. Hyp and TNE will be my votes, and I'm really hoping it's Hyp who gets it. If somebody aside from those two get lynched, I'll anon vote Hyp.

[zachattack]

Ok, the more I look at Zach the less I like him. He went from "KX is clear" to "KX is scum" in less than a page...

vote zachattack

Why is that scummy?

[zachattack]

That's L-2 with people I'm confident are townies as the voters. I'd wait for Hyperion before that gets pushed further. Day started 9 hours ago, I'm not concerned by his absence yet.

I don't trust KX.

And yes, I do realize how bad this looks for me. Hopefully the anonymous votes will help to clean me a little, unlikely that 7/9 anonymous votes would be on mafia and the 2 on different people when voting is anonymous etc.

Situation didn't look bad for you at all, it looked like scum voted you. Why you so worried?

Inspected City, so yeah. Damn. City, why you play like that?

Anyway, mafia gain the most out of a non-mafia player being lynched, and as such would most likely try to control the lynch. This makes it seem like they would have all voted the same player. Of the votes, the only clustering were on Hamlet, who flipped scum, and so was most likely not who the mafia voted for, and Me. However, if PimHel claims to have voted me, it means we probably only have one mafia left, or PimHel is mafia. Also, we can probably assume whoever voted City is clean.

The other option is that both City and Hamlet flaked on the anonymous vote, and so ended up self voting.

Prescient guess. It's obvious that's what happened now, I dont think anyone lied about their vote, but it was a stretch at the time unless you and Ham were the scum team and you knew he self voted. You also knew the active town were all on you two so it was likely that CE flaked. I thought you were scums choice for anon lynch, but looking back, I think the 6 active townies were just really on the ball in the anon stage.

Vote:KX

These are the posts your referring to, correct?

Because its super opposite and KX didn't do anything to warrant it. You just clear KX because of the votes, then all of the sudden are like lolnope. It helps that other people came out against KX too.

Who were these other people? I believe my reasons for the flip were clear, him guessing the self votes well before it was obvious was a huge red flag for me. His choice of second target was another.

[zachattack]

Oh yeah, I'll try to get back to this game asap.

@MOD, we only have four days left, right? If so, we should really get decided on a lynch and anonymous lynch rather then waiting it out like last time. Tbh I can't really remember much, but unless we have anything important left to say, announcing who we want to lynch so we can get a consensus down seems like the best option. TNE and Hyperion would be my preferred options, but PimHel or zach are also acceptable.

I agree with your choices who aren't me. I'm a terrible choice.

Feel bad for the replacement, but I think it's very likely he's the scum. A lot of people are reluctant to go there. Why?

[zachattack]

Oh crap I didnt realise lynch was that close. I would prefer KE, but would compromise on either Zachattack, maybe an inactive like City. Will figure that out tomorrow since I have a 2 hour gap between classes to reread.

Here's the post in question. At this point, Ham was L-2. Hyp never mentioned any sort of read on Hamlet, and this was what got the ball rolling on my lynch. People need to get over their day 1 tunnel, accept that they were wrong, and take advantage of the fact that we got a scum flip and look at Hams relations with everybody.

Kid, Hyp consistently mentioned Day 1 that K-X was his top suspect, and didn't say a word about Ham. He couldn't have gotten away with lying and saying he voted Ham.

[zachattack]

Doesn't mean anybody would have believed him if he lied and said he voted for Hamlet. By telling the truth, Pim and TNE remain suspects. If he lied, it becomes a 2 horse race between him and Moth over who lied about their Ham vote, and I have no doubt Hyp would be lynched by now if he had. As it stands, we know everyone was truthful, and "Maybe scum bussed anonymously" has become a viable line of thinking. Combined with your "Scum Hyp wouldn't have lied!" stance, he had everything to gain by telling the truth and everything to lose by lying.

[zachattack]

About 16 hours.