Open 506: Pick Your Power X/Y, Game Over

[pieceofpecanpie]

Am I not allowed to be?

You can be whatever you want, you can also be scummy and I'll vote you. Is that what you want to be?

Can you answer the question:

3 pages in still no scum reads or anything catch your eye?

[Mutleyddmc]

Yes that is what I want to be

[pieceofpecanpie]

Can you answer the question: 3 pages in still no scum reads or anything catch your eye?

Third time's a charm.

[Mutleyddmc]

Do it four and I will answer

[Your Troubles Will Cease]

The purpose of RVS is to generate enough information to get out of RVS as quickly as possible. Prolonging random vote-slinging any longer than we need to cuts down on the time allowed for D1 discussion, allows scum to control Town momentum, and is generally boring as fuck.

Mutley, you're being really obtuse for some reason. Why?

[Mutleyddmc]

I don't like being acute.

[Jennifer]

Vote Count 1.4

Belisarius

: Your Troubles Will Cease (L-7)

pieceofpecanpie

: Belisarius (L-7)

Sakura Hana

: Mutleyddmc (L-7)

Siveure DtTrikyp

: Alabaska J (L-7)

Stryker

:Siveure DtTrikyp, pieceofpecanpie, Cade (L-5)

TMTOLBTWNTOF

: Smudger, Sakura Hana(L-6)

Your Troubles Will Cease

: Deckard, (L-7)


Not Voting (4): Stryker, TMTOLBTWNTOF, Xdaamno, Crimml

With 14 alive, it's 8 to lynch.

The deadline is Monday, July 8 in (expired on 2013-07-08 07:00:00).

If you see any errors, please let me know in thread.

[Smudger]

UNVOTE:

Random other trends I noticed in PyP games.

The highest number ends up as the 4th number (although this one was sheer luck in one case as it only 2 unique and only 2 pairs lol)
The number 4 is always doubled up, and often last. (You guys suck.)

I am not very good with numbers, never have been, that's probably why I married an accountant. Anyway, while I see what is being offered here as a way of identifying scum through the numbers they pick for the draft I don't fully see it how it works. What I understand from Siveure is that scum will go for the low numbers in most games? using the theory (which seems to be misguided, based on what I have now seen linked and quoted in this thread) that they will be ignored because they believe town will go after a low number, but it is in fact the reverse. thus they usually end up wellplaced on the draft order after the draw?

But then when I looked at the linked game here 51. in all the linked games scum are spread through the draft but their number choices are, on the whole higher numbers thus giving them the chance to have a higher position after the draw? In fact when you look at the Post linked in #54 from the game linked in #54 its rather confusing as scum would appear well spread through the draft pick,

so basically there are 2 schools of thought here and they are contradictory to each other?

Belisarius then points out what is automatically on my mind after seeing that post in that game and the successive posts where this is dicussed

Why not me or Smudger, if you're going by Hoopla's hypothesis?

[Smudger]

rom reading those posts, their logic is similar to mine; i thought 4 was a low but safe number but of course i was wrong. i think if you gave two neighbors a quicktopic before the game, their discussion would be similar as well. i actually think this is more likely to be a manufactured ploy by scum Siveure DtTrikyp (he had those quicktopics on hand pretty fast) than town seeing scum voting 1 (although a bus with one of the two who voted 1 could be in the works), seeing as he voted a ridiculously low number to make sure he would not be implicated in his theory while being protected by the idea that that strategy guarantees you a unique vote, albeit the last one. i agree with the lottery fallacy by Xdaamno. btw, did i IC one of you newbie games? your name is very familiar to me.

why would you think Siveure is scum based solely him bringing to the table a meta that had anyone known about they would have probably done exactly the same thing if they knew about it. In particular considering the discussion that is now ensuing? IMO he was/is under no pressure to have actually revealed that information at that time, he could have kept it back and then only used it when he was pressured.

As for his choice of number, so what? he choose a number that probably no one would have thought about, and considering the information he has imparted regarding number choices and how they could be read then its a pretty good choice for a townie to ensure a good role pick and equally the same for scum. the difference is he chose to tell us about the number analysis, so why shoot himself in the foot?

[pieceofpecanpie]

Case on Stryker:

post 12 - Posts a picture instead of RVS, Deckard calls him out for it in #14, which gets ignored

post 24 - I really dislike this post, needlessly discredits Siveure when I consider his #23 a pretty decent resource of quotes. If anything Siv's draft number pick is WIFOM, so there's no reason not to take Siv seriously if he's posting useful material, unlike the pointless fluff that Stryker throws down at the end of this post.

post 28 - Complaining about WIFOM when his last post was full of it. Strikes me as pretty contradictory, and looks like Stryker's beginning a pattern of reacting to other people's posts and criticising them while showing no initiative.

post 31 - Here come the major scumpoints. Take a look at that last sentence,

"There is not much point discussing why someone chose 1 over another numbers imo"

, but wait a minute wasn't Stryker critiquing Siv's number choice and speculating over town choosing number 1 in post 24? Wasn't Stryker speculating that scum wouldn't double up with numbers in post 28? So there's not much point in discussing numbers, but why is that all I've seen from Stryker? Although, to be more accurate, I'd label it reactionary critique and discrediting of other peoples posts while throwing out some waffly comments related to the draft order.

The only aspect of Hoopla's theory from the other game that I looked at was to consider where Stryker falls in the draft order. He chose 10, which is unique, so I still like my scum read. At this stage I would've only reconsidered the read if he'd been a 2 or a 4. That's not to say scum can't be in those numbers, it's just favourable for them to have unique numbers higher up the draft order.

@Belisarius

And that's why I'm

not

voting you or Smudger.

[Your Troubles Will Cease]

Case on Stryker:

I like this. I like this a lot.

All of that post combined with the fact that he hasn't laid down any opinions of anyone in the slightest, and has actively attempted to shut down discussion means +1 wagon.

VOTE: Stryker
srs vote.

[Smudger]

Mutley's behavior so am waiting to see how that pans out between him and pieceofpeacanpie. Any reason why you have not pursued this pieceofpeacanpie?

[Smudger]

Mutley's behavior

is strange

so am waiting to see how that pans out between him and pieceofpeacanpie. Any reason why you have not pursued this pieceofpeacanpie?

Fixed

[pieceofpecanpie]

I checked some of his other games. Need I say more?

[Mutleyddmc]

Say more

I read your other games too

[Belisarius]

UNVOTE:

I don't like that case enough to vote Stryker, but I do like it too much to leave my RVS vote in play.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Doubling up probably isn't going to happen because most people won't realize the potential gain.

this is not a good reason to disregard the possibility. how do we know they won't realize the potential gain?

We don't. But it's very unlikely. How many people use the numbers? You'd have to be one to realize what's the reward in the draft phase. You don't even agree with the idea, so I find it highly doubtful you're scum that's doubled up. Everyone else isn't bothering with the numbers.

Also, if you wait for certainty you get nothing done because even a cop with a guilty could be scum fakeclaiming. You have to go with the most likely scenario, which is that scum didn't double up.

And I think what happened was nothing to do with number theory beyond further narrowing down the scum of a pool of 6.

i don't understand the point you are making. can you please clarify this?

Twas a response to pecan's thing about hoopla in the other game.

And how the hell is my pick of over 9000 relevant? I could have picked TWO and I wouldn't be implicating myself.

it is relevant because you are accusing scum of choosing lower numbers since you think they can afford to take the risk while you yourself don't choose a lower number - in fact you choose the highest number. i'm not saying it is a smoking gun by ANY means, but it is certainly relevant because you are conveniently not in a position to be suspected by your own theory.

you seem pretty defensive here, so i'm gonna go with my gut and
VOTE: Siveure DtTrikyp

Can't argue with defensive. W/E. This SUCKS. So much. Euck.

Anyway, I'm not accusing scum of choosing lower numbers in general. I'm accusing scum of choosing ONE. JUST ONE. Two isn't the mystical lowest number available that guarantees you first place if no-one picks it.

Alabaska actually raises a decent point. Choosing a number over 9000 doesn't clear you. Yeah, it doesn't implicate you either, like Siv pointed out in #54, but the defensiveness is interesting.

@Siveure

This is your first PYP game yes? Were you hoping to get a free town ticket with your draft number?

Ah. Defensiveness. So if I don't be defensive I don't need to be. Novel concept.

Anyway, This is my third PyP game and I was hoping to get high with my draft number. Nobody is going to give a crap what I picked or who I could be scumbuddies with because I've already done this setup twice.

Cade's entry is interesting. He's the scummier of the two 1's even before that post, and he's voting stryker? Eh, it really doesn't mean anything as it's his first game.

Pecan's case is basically what I saw when I voted stryker, I just um... suck at cases. So much.

I picked 9002, as I wanted the highest number so might as well go ridiculously high and the DBZ reference doesn't hurt. And I didn't want 9001 JUST IN CASE anyone had the exact same train of thought up to that point.

Hey, I LOVE MAKING WALLS ITS SO FUN!

[TMTOLBTWNTOF]

DRAFT ORDER:

Siveure DtTrikyp: 9002

Why would we take you seriously?

Why would town not risk to take #1 and try to go for a useful town pr or deny a powerful scum pr?

Not a bad strategy, it ensures that he goes in front of everyone who doubled/tripled.

VOTE: Crimml

[TMTOLBTWNTOF]

Wait, never mind. Just realized there was more than 1 page. I'm going to read the other three.

unvote

[TMTOLBTWNTOF]

Ok, so Siveure is town.
So is pecan

Taking this post

Draft order is can be very relevant with PYP, and number theory really helps identify the best scum candidates.

Hoopla almost broke this game for scum in Day 1. I was scum that game, I'm going to read over it again and remind myself exactly why I was sweating it out so much.

So at least 1 in every double and 2 in every triple is town, right?

And how the hell is my pick of over 9000 relevant? I could have picked TWO and I wouldn't be implicating myself.

I see it as relevant, but I think it implicates him as town.

VOTE: Belisarius leaving an RVS on a town?

[Sakura Hana]

I think you misunderstood his post, he said that he liked the case too much to leave his RVS on (as in the case made him want to remove his RVS vote), but not enough to make him vote his target.

If you notice his latest post he unvoted?

[Alabaska J]

wall incoming

Am I not allowed to be?

it would be bordering on anti-town. if you don't hit scum day 1, anti-town is the best possible mislynch.

why would you think Siveure is scum based solely him bringing to the table a meta that had anyone known about they would have probably done exactly the same thing if they knew about it. In particular considering the discussion that is now ensuing? IMO he was/is under no pressure to have actually revealed that information at that time, he could have kept it back and then only used it when he was pressured.

As for his choice of number, so what? he choose a number that probably no one would have thought about, and considering the information he has imparted regarding number choices and how they could be read then its a pretty good choice for a townie to ensure a good role pick and equally the same for scum. the difference is he chose to tell us about the number analysis, so why shoot himself in the foot?

i'm sorry if you got the wrong impression, but it was his reaction to my post that was more the cause of my vote as opposed to the presentation of the theory itself, which is, in my mind, a nulltell. again, in a later post, i point out that the reason i brought up his number was NOT because it was a scumtell (another nulltell) but that i felt it was relevant info that he conveniently didn't fit into his theory and in fact didn't in a spectacular way. again, his response made me more suspicious.

Case on Stryker:

<snip>

@Belisarius

And that's why I'm

not

voting you or Smudger.

he still reads as more of an inexperienced town to me; this isn't strong enough to convince me the other way, especially the nitpick about RVS actions with someone who has "Townsperson" under their tag and isn't a hydra. the flip flop on the number thing is something i guess but again doesn't quite ping the radar for me enough. decent case, but its timing is rather convenient. speaking of which...

Case on Stryker:

I like this. I like this a lot.

All of that post combined with the fact that he hasn't laid down any opinions of anyone in the slightest, and has actively attempted to shut down discussion means +1 wagon.

VOTE: Stryker
srs vote.

you do realize how bad this looks right? and where has stryker "actively attempted to shut down discussion"? are you talking about the number argument flip? i would hardly say that qualifies. this looks like lazy scum/bad town play right here, and i'm leaning towards the former. your pseudo-lurking doesn't help you much.

fos: YTWC

Doubling up probably isn't going to happen because most people won't realize the potential gain.

this is not a good reason to disregard the possibility. how do we know they won't realize the potential gain?

We don't. But it's very unlikely. How many people use the numbers? You'd have to be one to realize what's the reward in the draft phase. You don't even agree with the idea, so I find it highly doubtful you're scum that's doubled up. Everyone else isn't bothering with the numbers.

your tone sounded very final to me, as if you were disregarding the possibility. my point is that your theory is so vague and not likely to help until later that i don't see why you make such a big deal about dismissing the doubling up thing in the first place. i don't think it is relevant, while you seem to imply:

Also, if you wait for certainty you get nothing done because even a cop with a guilty could be scum fakeclaiming. You have to go with the most likely scenario, which is that scum didn't double up.

that we should

disregard

it. that seems a bit severe. you seem to think that i am for using the theory to scumhunt, which is incorrect. i am saying it could be interesting but something we shouldn't use as a case right now. you say we should actively not think about it, which i find puzzling. do you see the difference here?

And I think what happened was nothing to do with number theory beyond further narrowing down the scum of a pool of 6.

i don't understand the point you are making. can you please clarify this?

Twas a response to pecan's thing about hoopla in the other game.

gotcha. makes more sense now. thanks for the clarification.

And how the hell is my pick of over 9000 relevant? I could have picked TWO and I wouldn't be implicating myself.

it is relevant because you are accusing scum of choosing lower numbers since you think they can afford to take the risk while you yourself don't choose a lower number - in fact you choose the highest number. i'm not saying it is a smoking gun by ANY means, but it is certainly relevant because you are conveniently not in a position to be suspected by your own theory.

you seem pretty defensive here, so i'm gonna go with my gut and
VOTE: Siveure DtTrikyp

Can't argue with defensive. W/E. This SUCKS. So much. Euck.

no you can't argue with defensive, but you could try and defend yourself in a non-scummy way. it is not that you are defensive, but the context around your defensiveness that warrants my vote. also, since this is my first really serious vote of the day, there is, to be frank, less to go on than, say, a vote on day 3. you going straight for the OMGUS here really reinforces my view. you act as though you are in danger of being lynched already, for pete's sake!

Anyway, I'm not accusing scum of choosing lower numbers in general. I'm accusing scum of choosing ONE. JUST ONE. Two isn't the mystical lowest number available that guarantees you first place if no-one picks it.

i think this needs to be reinforced about the difference between your case and Hoopla's case in the game that was linked to by pieceofpecanpie. you think scum are more likely to choose 1 (although your evidence seems to be just as strongly correlating with scum choosing lower numbers, so i don't know why you are restricting yourself to just choosing 1, unless *!!wild speculation alert!!* all of your scumbuddies chose low but avoided 1 specifically so you could make your case, or one chose 1 to make you look more town), while Hoopla's analysis specifically talks about scum having higher positions after submitting the numbers, and does not reference the numbers picked themselves. there seems to be more hard data and logic towards Hoopla's case, but your logic certainly isn't faulty by any means either. note that this is NOT an attack on your case and (wild speculation aside) is not an attack on you either, it is just something interesting i wanted to clarify before the cases got lumped together as one entity.

Anyway, This is my third PyP game and I was hoping to get high with my draft number. Nobody is going to give a crap what I picked or who I could be scumbuddies with because I've already done this setup twice.

out of curiosity, what numbers did you pick the other times?

also, capsman (TMNTwhatever) you need to rereread i think. even if Belisarius had left his RVS vote on "a town" (that certainty you have is a bit strange) how is that worthy of a vote?

[pieceofpecanpie]

Taking this post

Draft order is can be very relevant with PYP, and number theory really helps identify the best scum candidates.

Hoopla almost broke this game for scum in Day 1. I was scum that game, I'm going to read over it again and remind myself exactly why I was sweating it out so much.

So at least 1 in every double and 2 in every triple is town, right?

Well, yes and no.

It's not definitive, but it's a great indicator. Scum still could've deliberately doubled up - it's been done in one game before, by Hoopla no less - and I could also be scum who is now just misleading people with theories. The bottom line is go search for scummy players, that's what I'm doing as well, however once you've identified suspect players I reckon draft order theories have a good role to play in developing lynch lists or helping with PoE.

The two posts I'm referencing currently from Open 427's PYP game are Hoopla's #100 (which I'd already linked) and Hoopla's #230.

The #230 is very interesting as it introduces the concept of randomness and how people tend to interpret what is random a lot differently from what is truly random. The gist of it is that when you get 3 people (ie. the scum team) to pick 3 numbers in consultation with each other, they'll try to make the numbers look a bit "random" lest they leave an obvious link to one of their scumbuddies. What that means is that they usually avoid patterns like 4,6,8 or 6,7,8 or other number sequences, even though these are just as likely to come up in a random number generator.

So if we take that line of thinking and put it into context: I'm currently voting Stryker (10), so I consider it very unlikely that he's in a scum team with both Smudger (6) and Belisarius (8), although there could still be one scum among them. So 6, 10, ? and 8, 10, ? are possible, but I'd consider a sequence of 6, 8, 10 highly unlikely for the scum team.

Just some food for thought.

[pieceofpecanpie]

[...] decent case, but its timing is rather convenient.

Uhhh, what?

If by convenient you mean I didn't put the case forward at Night, in a locked thread, when I'd be unable to post it and you wouldn't be able to read it. Then yes, I suppose I did time it conveniently for everyone. However, I don't think that's what you meant, so could you elaborate on this line?

[pieceofpecanpie]

I read your other games too

And...?