Micro 335 - Does notscience Get the Girl? [Game Over]

[sthar8]

Wisdom CCs me, but the girl won't vote either of us. So in order to lynch me, they have to reveal all the wronggirls. At absolute worst, it's a 50/50 guess on my part. But it won't be that, because I would then propose a lynch outside of me and wisdom, as whichever of us is NS wins that way. The girl will see me for real, and we will win.

This isn't true.

Wisdom CCs you, then votes you.

Rest of the players do nothing.

You will get lynched via plurality.

Not if I vote in my claim post. Then Wisdom gets lynched by plurality. Hence the vote in my claim post.

[sthar8]

And if they'd already had a wagon on me, everyone pretending to be the girl has to help me change it or reveal that they're not the girl. If everyone cc's, at least one fakeclaim will be obvious, and the girl wouldn't counter. So there's no way to respond without giving me enough info to win the game at 5p.

[FakeGod]

Wisdom CCs me, but the girl won't vote either of us. So in order to lynch me, they have to reveal all the wronggirls. At absolute worst, it's a 50/50 guess on my part. But it won't be that, because I would then propose a lynch outside of me and wisdom, as whichever of us is NS wins that way. The girl will see me for real, and we will win.

This isn't true.

Wisdom CCs you, then votes you.

Rest of the players do nothing.

You will get lynched via plurality.

Not if I vote in my claim post. Then Wisdom gets lynched by plurality. Hence the vote in my claim post.

Only one Wrong girl has to help Wisdom.

There are still one more Wrong girl who could be the Girl.

[sthar8]

And if the girl sees a wrong girl helping wisdom, she'll know that wisdom is fake and help me. In which case I'll know who the girl is, unless the last wrong girl also helps me.

[sthar8]

Believe me, I did the chart. Not accounting for the girl's actions, the absolute worst I could get random guessing would have been 50/50. Assuming the girl also wanted to win, it was a 100% winrate.

[sthar8]

Also again, with a counterclaim the plan is to vote someone outside of the claimed NS's with the logic "Whoever is the real NS wants that person lynched in order to win. With all the claimed NS's and the girl, the wrong girls cannot form a counterwagon." Refusing to cooperate at that point is ALSO a wrong girl claim.

[Nachomamma8]

NOTSCIENCE GOT THE GIRL

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

I think the issue with this one is the wrong girls all played wrong, and random lynching isn't the solution.

Okay, assuming it's purely random, and that the girl will never be lynched, and the endgame breaking solution at 5 players is applied, ns+girl have a 58% winchance (50% of that just being 4 wrong girls are lynched). Including that ns picks purely at random - so if he claims early and gets lynched anyway it's better odds of getting the right girl.

Redcoyote did the right thing in never doing anything but self-voting though. So that's probably the biggest issue with this setup. The optimal play for the right girl is to do nothing... so it's probably also the right play for all the wrong girls. Or at least half of them.

[Kagami]

The setup seems balanced under the assumption that the wrong girls will form a two-person lynch squad and always deadline plurality lynch, while all other wrong girls self vote and post cat pics (which then gives about even odds for each team). Without pre-game preparation, I just don't see that happening, though.

[FakeGod]

tbh the setup was designed to let notscience get the girl

but don't tell anyone plz

[Kagami]

awwwwww

[quadz08]