Updated mini win/loss/abandonment stats

[Kelly Chen]

Back on Nov 4 I posted some stats on reg and mini theme games from 250 on. That's here.

My original stats were:
Regular Minis (seven-player games excluded):
100.0%, 43 games total
44.2%, 19 mafia wins
32.6%, 14 town wins
20.9%, 9 abandoned
2.3%, 1 draw

Themed Minis:
100%, 62 games total
60.0%, 37 town wins
[27.4%, 17 all scum wins or draws]
22.6%, 14 mafia wins
9.7%, 6 abandoned
4.8%, 3 other scum wins or scum draws
1.6%, 1 draw
1.6%, 1 win with town/mafia distinction not determined


I've now added in 18 mini regs and 21 mini themes that have ended since then, changing the stats to:

Regular Minis (seven-player games excluded):
100.0%, 61 games total
39.3%, 24 mafia wins
36.1%, 22 town wins
23.0%, 14 abandoned
1.6%, 1 draw

Themed Minis:
100%, 83 games total
55.4%, 46 town wins
26.5%, 22 mafia wins or other scum wins or draws [new wins are just 4 mafia, 1 cult]
15.7%, 13 abandoned
1.2%, 1 draw
1.2%, 1 win with town/mafia distinction not determined

I'm inclined to say that the town-scum gap closed slightly in both, but both together lost ground to abandonments.

Here's Kelly's Hypothesis: For a given type of game, the higher the town:scum win ratio, the lower the abandonment rate.

[xyzzy]

Makes sense. Having no information is rather boring, so if you don't expect to do well, you really don't have any incentive to stick with it till the end.

Of course, people aligned with me never quit, because they know they're gonna win.

[Kelly Chen]

That's interesting, I didn't think of it that way. I was thinking the issue was purely win probability (more players are town, players are less likely to feel like quitting if they're more likely to win).

We could test this by running some heavily themed games that are slanted towards scum, and some flavorless games that are slanted towards town, and compare the abandonment rates.

Heheh.

[HackerHuck]

I'm just curious as to why most games are abandoned.

Do we see mods just flaking out, or do they tend to abandon a game because the players flake out and it's too tough to get enough replacements?

[Mastermind of Sin]

Both. I know that the two games I've modded that were closed down were a mix of the two. The first one was a mini of mine that died off because people stopped posting altogether and I was too busy to find replacements. The second one was running during the crashes last year, and we had a 2-month night as a result. Everyone flaked, and I couldn't find enough replacements to keep the game running. From what I've seen, it's usually a combination of the two.

[Kelly Chen]

Though I did count the game here and there where the mod didn't manage to do anything beyond open the game thread.

[Yosarian2]

In my opinion, the number of people who are either severe lurkers or who just stop playing is getting absurd. So many games, either the game lurks to a complete halt, or if there's a very active mod he manages to keep it moving by replacing half the players, and then replaceing some of the replacements. It's really getting bad.

SOme general rules people need to start following:

1. You don't request a replacement just because half way through a game you decide you dont' like it and would rather play a different mafia game instead.

2. If you sign up for a game, play it. If everyone else is posting, post. If no one else is posting, post. If you've got nothing to say, post anyway.

At least we've had pleanty of people willing to be replacements, even into long games that take a while to read through; that's about the only think keeping some games going.

[Mr. Flay]

I agree. I'm about ready to revisit the "if you get replaced, you need to replace somewhere else before joining a fully new game" proposal. Games are choking and dying on this...

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=4818 was the old post, though there may have been one before it.

[jeep]

Makes sense. Having no information is rather boring, so if you don't expect to do well, you really don't have any incentive to stick with it till the end.

This is so wrong. (The thought/philosophy, not the statement) I like being a townie. That's what makes the game interesting. The whole premise of Mafia is an informed minority vs an uninformed majority. If you don't like being part of the uninformed majority, you shouldn't be playing the game.

-JEEP