Open 31 - Yoguraimee C9 (Game Over!) before 470

[Vendagoat]

Vote: j-man

[Sefer]

:/ Well, here goes nothing. If Vendagoat is the cop, remember to investigate Khel or me tonight.

[Sefer]

Vote: J-man

[Erg0]

Final Vote Count of Day 2

J-Man 3 (mneme, Vendagoat, Sefer)

Not Voting 2 (J-Man, Khelvaster)

Before

J-Man

can get a word in edgeways, he is surrounded by townspeople and carried to lynching tree, despite Khelvaster's protestations. Strangely, J-Man does not say a word as he is strung up, and breathes his last without breaking his silence.

Sefer searches the corpse's pockets, and freezes in fright when he feels the cold metal of a badge. Looks like J-Man was a

Cop

after all...

The click of a gun being cocked confirms what Sefer has already realised - the town of Yoguraimee is no more. He spins and sees Vendagoat's pistol pointed at his heart - and beside him is Khelvaster, grinning maniacally and holding his gun to a terrified Doctor mneme's head.

"Fuhgeddaboutit..."

Bang.
Bang.

Game Over. Khelvaster and Vendagoat (Mafia Scum) Win!!!

[Vendagoat]

Oh thank god this is over.

J-man: Dude I am so completely sorry for what I did to you. I truly hope I did not put you off of mafia, I took absolutely no pleasure in playing you like that. I felt so damn scummy.

Mneme: phew, couldn't get you in one game, but I am glad I got you in this one. The fire and ice game really did upset me, so I tried to channel as much into this game as I could. I am glad I snuck past a veteran like you.

Xyz: Buddy, I am sorry, every game you and I have been in so far has ended badly. I hope there is no hard feelings.

Yogurt and Sefer: Dudes, good game. I thought for sure yogurt was going to come out of his lurk mode and destroy the crap out of us. Sefer dude, you came so close to the truth so many times, I'm amazed I'm still alive.

Guys good game, but I really do not like being scum. It feels so disgusting doing what I did for this game. Khev man, thanks for being a great partner, but I really hope I never pull scum again. Ugh.

[Khelvaster]

Wow...this was an amazing game. I had absolutely no hope at all that Venda and I would manage to pull off a scum win. We got really lucky with xyzzy being the only cop to have gone onto the YB wagon. Otherwise, if the doc had gotten his protect in, we would have been toast.

[Erg0]

Thankyou all for giving me a fairly smooth ride in my first modding gig on the site. Night choices were:

J-Man investigated Vendagoat (Guilty)
xyzzy didn't get an investigation in before he was killed
mneme protected J-Man
The Scum targeted xyzzy (Kill)

I was pretty amazed at the speed with which J-Man was lynched on Day 2, especially with 2 townies on the wagon. As I type this, J-Man still hasn't even read his results PM, which I sent immediately before re-opening the thread. I was quite impressed with the scum strategy, though - even if J-Man had posted his result it probably wouldn't have helped him.

Good game all!

[Vendagoat]

Hey ergo I think you did a wonderful job!

[Erg0]

*blushes*

Fortunately this game was small and fairly easy to manage, so it was a good one to start with. I'm trying to come up with a good idea for a mini theme now, since the mini normal queue looks like it has about a 3 month wait time for mods...

[Vendagoat]

Does j-man even know the game is over?

[mneme]

Nicely done, scum.

The double-bus is what fooled me -- I'd done an earlier analysis and decided that the pairings were vendagoat and khel vs sefer and J-man (with vend and khel being by far the less helpful -- and therefore, less scummy -- pairing). But after khel bussed vend, I did a second read and realized that vendagoat had made a near-lynching vote on khel, which made that pairing less likely.

[mneme]

Oh, and thanks, erg0. Re mini theme: run King Arthur! Or Pac Man! or D&D!

(I've got a truckload of themes I've been mulling over for a while but haven't gotten around to run. Pac Man's not on that list, that's just teh silly).

[Sefer]

I was pretty sure that Venda was scum, but there wasn't a lot I could do once mneme voted; I decided to just end it and hope I was wrong rather than wait and let Khel do it for me.

I'm kicking myself for not following statistics- once Khel claimed town I knew he had a 2/3 chance of being scum (since there were 2 scum and one other townie); I just kept looking at Yogurt's post history, saw how often he posted elsewhere and how rarely he posted here and thought the lurking must be a scum sign for him. Once Yogurt turned up town I was hoping my normal streak of being killed night 1 would continue, but scum decided to break it for me.

It's an interesting setup that more or less forces a mass claim day one, since anyone who's near lynch should claim and it won't take many claims to start being countered. One scum claiming town and one should always claim cop, as you guys did this game, gives maximum number of people that could be scum, which is probably the best strategy. The way we did day one, town automatically would win if the scum didn't kill a cop night one (this works so long as a cop isn't lynched), meaning if the doctor survives in addition to cops theres a 1/3 chance of the scum losing no matter what. If a cop does get killed N1, there's a 50/50 shot for either side to win (following mneme's excellent strategy of lynching one of the remaining cops). So scum actually have a high chance of losing in this setup; so long as a claimed townie is lynched, even if it isn't scum, scum lose 1/3 of the time N1 (from failing to kill a cop); 2/3 of the time they have a 50/50 shot, giving them a 2/3 chance of losing even if they aren't lynched D1. Congradulations, scum, for overcoming the odds.

Thanks for running it, Erg0; if you're looking for a theme I agree with mneme's notion of a D&D theme

[xyzzy]

Congratulations, scum. Well played. I TOTALLY wasn't suspecting that.

Hooray! I now have the required 5 games completed to IC!

[Khelvaster]

Please Sefer, no more painfully misdone stastics.

I'm kicking myself for not following statistics- once Khel claimed town I knew he had a 2/3 chance of being scum (since there were 2 scum and one other townie.

No--the number of other scum had nothing to do with the fact that I was town. D1, there was nobody else claiming townie-town, so that wasn't really an issue. If you had gone and lynched me, there would have been a 1/3 chance of me being scum, as you didn't know who the doc was. D2, you knew I was scum. 2/3 has nothing to do with this.

It's an interesting setup that more or less forces a mass claim day one, since anyone who's near lynch should claim and it won't take many claims to start being countered. One scum claiming town and one should always claim cop, as you guys did this game, gives maximum number of people that could be scum, which is probably the best strategy.

I agree totally.

The way we did day one, town automatically would win if the scum didn't kill a cop night one (this works so long as a cop isn't lynched), meaning if the doctor survives in addition to cops theres a 1/3 chance of the scum losing no matter what. If a cop does get killed N1, there's a 50/50 shot for either side to win (following mneme's excellent strategy of lynching one of the remaining cops). So scum actually have a high chance of losing in this setup; so long as a claimed townie is lynched, even if it isn't scum, scum lose 1/3 of the time N1 (from failing to kill a cop); 2/3 of the time they have a 50/50 shot, giving them a 2/3 chance of losing even if they aren't lynched D1. Congradulations, scum, for overcoming the odds.

Thanks--I also had a fairly large problem with the setup. If the doc were changed to something like a survivor, each side would have a fairly even chance of winning, given random lynches.

[Sefer]

No, it's 2/3. I knew you were either scum or town, there were 2 scum and 1 town, so you had a 2/3 chance of being scum and a 1/3 chance of being a townie. That's from the perspective of another townie; as I explained in game, you had a 50/50 shot of being scum or town from an outside perspective (because you were either scum or town and there were 2 of each).

[Khelvaster]

Yeah, but only 1 scum would claim townie. There was one confirmed scum as cop and one confirmed scum as townie. There wasn't a question of that.

[J-man]

DAMNIT argg i hate RL when it gets in the way of stuff like this i hadn't had a moment edgewise to even go online in the last while arggg...
owell GJ mafia

[mneme]

Sefer, Khel -- if we're talking Day 1 claims, once we had claims from everyone, there was one scum, one doc, and one actual townie hiding among khel, Yogurt, and myself. Khel, having claimed townie, had a 50% chance to be townie, and a 50% chance to be scum, based on straight odds (only one scum hiding in that set, so 1/2 odds).

If he was scum, Yogurt and I had a 0% chance of being scum.

If he wasn't, we each had a 50% chance of being scum.

Therefore, you're right on straight odds from your perspective (and the same was true of the rest -- I'd have been very happy with a Khel lynch on day 1 for this reason and that it would have made me less exposed, but Yogurt's excellent impersonation of scum pushed me in the wrong direction).

Also, re odds -- you're ignoring the odds of finding scum on the day 1 lynch (automatic win for town), and the odds of wagonning the doctor on day 1 (scum should counterclaim, because it gives them a 50% chance of a win, as the sac kills the doctor [probably], a cop (that night), and leaves the town looking at a false cop, a real cop, and a townie in the showdown.

This means the odds of the town lynching any of the "non-cops" is equal, all things being equal -- one of these results in a scum dying day 2, but that should still happen.

hmm. so...

1/4 chance of win for town on day 1 (lynch a scum; scum are either revealed by the cops or kill a cop and let the town just go to "lynch all cops" as a 100% wining strategy).
+ 1/8 chance of win for town on day 3 (showdown after outing/counterclaiming the doc. Probably the town's worst possibility given good play, but low-ish odds.
+ 1/2 * 1/3 = 1/6 chance of win for town on night 1 (lynch a townie, scum fail to kill a cop).
+ 1/2 * 2/3 * 1/2 = 1/6 chance of a town win on day 2 (lynch a townie, scum kill a cop, lynch a scumcop, win).

By my calculation, that's 17/24 chance of a town win by straight odds. (slightly worse than a 3/4 chance). But I may be missing some corner cases.

[MeMe]

last post