Mini 470 - Some Guys Are Trying To Kill You (done)

[Erotomachia]

I find it sort of eerie how alike Erg0 and Streeflo are. They've voted for the same person, in the same order, for the past two days. They both share exactly the same suspicions today, and are pretty obstinate in those convictions. They haven't really analyzed each other or soupfly, focusing almost entirely on Shanba.

Soupfly, on the other hand, has jumped around a lot. In fact, I find it pretty astonishing how fluid his suspicions have been today. He's gone from calling me Haut Boy's scum partner to calling me "more town than any of us." (I'm starting to wonder whether he's "buddying up" to me right now.) He's gone from a tentative support of Erg0 and Streeflo's votes for Haut Boy, to calling Haut Boy town, to saying now that Shanba is the best place for his vote. And in between all that, he's even found the time to declare that he would be pushing for an Erg0 lynch.

In short, soupfly is literally all over the place, and this only makes me more uncomfortable. It's curious that Streeflo and Erg0 haven't noticed this and and actually regard soupfly as one of the most pro-town players.

Most people have probably assumed that I take Shanba's innocence as a given. This isn't quite true. Shanba certainly might be scum - I just think that we have much better choices right now. The only thing that disturbs me is that Shanba's current vote is illogical: given his suspicions, he should be leaning toward soupfly.

Although I would greatly prefer a soupfly lynch, given the total lack of support for it (Erg0 and Streeflo seem like they won't budge, and soupfly obviously won't vote for himself) I would also support a Erg0 or Streeflo lynch. It's hard to tell which one is a better choice (I strongly doubt that they are both scum), but for the moment I think I'd prefer a Streeflo lynch.

The point is that we need to come to consensus.

[Erg0]

@streeflo and erg0: how can you be so sure of shanba being scum?

I never said I was sure, he just has the greatest weight of evidence against him in my eyes. We've been over this for the last couple of pages, and there just isn't enough in Shanba's defence to change my mind on Haut Boy.

[Streeflo]

In short, soupfly is literally all over the place, and this only makes me more uncomfortable. It's curious that Streeflo and Erg0 haven't noticed this and and actually regard soupfly as one of the most pro-town players.

I never said he was one of the most pro-town players. That honor would be given to Erg0. I regarded soupfly as less scummy than you and shanba, but in light of your case against the way soupfly throws his votes around so carelessly, I'll look back on it.

[Streeflo]

EBWOP: I honestly thought it was weird how soupfly's went from declaring Erotomachia HautBoy's scum partner, to declaring him "more town than any of us." I did not really notice anything else in that paragraph though.

[Erg0]

I never said soupfly was the most pro-town either, I just said he was the least scummy of the four other players besides Jimmy.

[soupfly]

let me try to put my jumping around into perspective.

my initial suspicion was eroto because of what i perceived to be passive play. it was the feeling i had but upon doing a reread i've decided that this was not the case.

then, came the two votes against shanba at which my suspicion turned to ergo/streeflo because it was untownie to go after shanba so quickly. initially i saw ergo as being the culprit because he was way too insistent on shanba's guilt, but then i realized that it was streeflo that placed the second vote which would make him a bit scummier.

this also coincided with my metagaming assessment over the length of the night phase for N2 which led me to believe that shanba was town. --> eroto, what is your opinion on the argument i made? never got your feedback.

finally came the fact that shanba's arguments have been very shaky. insisting that eroto is town based on one post, not putting his vote on me, voting for Ergo when streeflo's second vote is scummier.

i'm having a tough time with this because I just can't see a great case for anybody. my suspicions have jumped around but the fact that i've not adamantly pushed for anybody's lynch is pretty much consistent with the fact that i can't make anything more than a WIFOM case against any of you.

to conclude, i've been very active and open about my point of view all game long. for D3 this has resulted in fluid suspicions but i think that any open minded townie would understand that. there is no great case at the moment because everyone's played a pretty good game. truth is that ergo/streeflo/shanba are so close in my eyes that i'm one good argument away from reversing myself again. if you guys interpret this as scummy ok, but i'm not gonna change the way i play at this stage of the game just so that i can appear more town friendly.

[Erg0]

Soupfly, I'm having difficulty understanding why you've got me so close to Streeflo and Shanba at the moment. There seem to still be a number of misconceptions floating around regarding my play today. Let's recap:

I reconstruct the actions of our known scum for the first day (since he didn't post on day 2). Based on the available evidence, I find that Haut Boy/Shanba seems most likely to be his buddy. I then look at Haut Boy's play and find nothing to suggest that my initial conclusion is incorrect. Having explained both of these things, I place the first vote of the day on Haut Boy.

Nobody else seems to have built much of a case at this point, and seems more interested in waiting around for Haut Boy's replacement to show up while happily ignoring the previous two days' worth of evidence, which (in my opinion) will be more reliable than anything we get from a replacement. I don't recall ever pushing anyone else to vote for Haut Boy, I simply found him the most likely scum in the game so far and thus that's where I voted.

I've been attacked for not providing a case (I did), and for pushing a speedlynch (I didn't), but nobody has done anything that throws into doubt the evidence that I gathered from the first two days. In my experience, the posts before the first scum lynch are the best place to find links between scum, because that's where the scum are more likely to accidentally give themselves away. The main attack on my evidence is that it's not strong, which is probably true, but I've yet to see anything stronger. I certainly don't think that an "attempted speedlynch" on a player of unknown alignment is more valuable evidence than the play on day 1. Day 2 was a speedlynch, but that guy came up scum so those votes aren't a scumtell. The same may well apply here.

[Shanba]

Shanba's vote still doesn't make any sense to me at all. By trying to guess whether Erg0 or Streeflo are scum, you effectively have a 50% of catching scum. Since you've said that soupfly would be their only logical scum partner, then voting for him should give you a 100% of getting scum (according to your assumptions, which are that I'm town and that a Erg0+Streeflo scumpair is unlikely).

This is a point that's beginning to frustrate me, because it seems so incredibly obvious to me. Also, you seriously exaggerate my stance here.

From my perspective, I know than one of the scum is in the group {Erg0, Streeflo}. I know that the other scum is in the group {Erg0, Streeflo, soupfly, Erotomachia}. This gives me pairings of Erg0-Streeflo, Erg0-soupfly, Erg0-Erotomachia, Streeflo- soupfly and Streeflo-Erotomachia. Although soupfly is individually scummier, my reads are not as important in this case as the hard evidence, that Streeflo or Erg0 must be scum. I've been wrong about people before, I am not infallible. As such, my vote choice only makes sense between Erg0/Streeflo.

Perhaps an analogy would help. A player claims cop with a guilty on another player. Logically, the play that day would be one of the cop or the guilty, as while there might be other scum out there it is much better for the town to lynch one of the players of which one must be scum (for the purposes of the analogy, I'm assuming no millers or sanity problems, etc.) This applies doubly so in Lylo.

However, I can't just ignore my reads on other players. I would be an idiot to do so. As such, I find an Erg0/soupfly pairing the most likely. So I vote Erg0. It gives me a much better chance of voting scum this way than just choosing who I think is scummiest. Do you understand now?

the play for today is either streeflo or shanba. streeflo has play excellent but i just can't get over his second vote today. shanba has used some pretty shaky logic in his posts till now. the point that eroto just pointed out is very true indeed. with shanba's logic he should have seen me as obvious scum but he didn't...probably cause he can't explain why i defended him.

its taken a while, we've taken our time but the best place for my vote is shanba.

Ok. The first thing is, see what I wrote to Eroto. My vote for Erg0 makes sense in the context of the game.

Secondly, I assume you're referring to the towntell thing. If you're accusing that of being shaky logic, frankly it's not. Let me explain.

Town have different objectives to scum. They are trying to find the scum, work out what's going on, push the correct lynches, not overly concerned with survival. They have a specific mindset towards the game. This is the basis of a towntell.

Scum have an entirely different mindset. They are trying to push mislynches, look innocent, neutralise threats to themselves, hunt for power roles etc. This different mindset is the basis of a scumtell. If you dispute this, you are disputing the basic premise of the game of mafia.

As such, I have said what I believe to be a towntell. I've given arguments as to why I believe it to be a towntell. Erg0 has disputed those arguments and given counter arguments. And so on. Ultimately, it boils down to which arguments you find more persuasive. But it's not shaky logic at all. In the same way, one person arguing that we have free will and one person arguing that we are predestined would disagree with each other. But it doesn't mean that either of their arguments are flawed.

Erg0, I have questioned the strength of your case. It seems like you are basing everything on a single interaction. That's all very well and good, but a single interaction isn't that hard for a scum to fake. You ignore the large evidence against Soupfly in favour of TBS' one interaction with him, and you disregard Streeflo's behaviour today.

Speaking of which, I'm beginning to wonder whether I don't have the wrong player. Although I see more possible pairings with Erg0, I am worried by the way Streeflo seems to just agree with whatever Erg0 is saying at the time. In fact, Streeflo's play seems much more reminiscent to me of a scumplay today than Erg0. Which is annoying, because I see Erg0 scumpairs as more likely.

Unvote

for now. I need to reread Streeflo's play.

[Erotomachia]

I've made up my mind.

unvote, vote: Streeflo

[Erg0]

I'm a bit bogged down, so I probably won't get back to this game until tomorrow. In the meantime,

Mod: Votecount please?

[Streeflo]

Vote: shanba

for shaky arguments and switching his opinions about 50 times since he was replaced in.

HoS: soupfly

for doing the same, but acting less scummy. I reread, and even though he defended himself, it still looks like scum trying to find a safe target to land on.

I'm mostly suspicious of Erotomachia because a shanba/Erotomachia pairing makes perfect sense. If shanba comes up scum, Erotomachia will have my vote guaranteed.

[Maz Medias]

Votecount:
Shanba: 2 (Erg0, Streeflo)
Streeflo: 1 (Erotomachia)
Erg0: 1 (Shanba)
Not Voting: Jimmy R, soupfly
6 alive, 4 to lynch

DEADLINE:
A deadline has been set for Sept 17th, 11:59 PM EDT. Get to it, kids.

[Jimmy R]

Nobody else seems to have built much of a case at this point, and seems more interested in waiting around for Haut Boy's replacement to show up while happily ignoring the previous two days' worth of evidence, which (in my opinion) will be more reliable than anything we get from a replacement.

That's a valid point

I'm going to

vote Shanba

I realise this puts him at -1 but after reading again (more the early posts) I think this is our best bet.

I'm probably out til past the deadline now, been really busy lately and I'm away for the weekend now.

[soupfly]

its taken a while, we've taken our time but the best place for my vote is shanba.

i won't make an official vote cause my idea all along was to let Jimmy to decide the lynch for today.

i really am torn between steeflo and shanba but i guess its time:

vote: shanba

[Maz Medias]

Bam! Shanba is lynched.

After a long day of consideration,

Jimmy R

finally nods at

soupfly

. The duo advance on

Shanba

, who grunts. "Youse guys think you can take me, eh?" he spits, getting ready for a brawl; unfortunately for him, even the

Mafia Tough Guy

can't win a five versus one in broad daylight. The lot drag him to the gallows and hang him up, then retire, pleased with this development.

It is now Night Four. Send actions ASAP!

[Maz Medias]

Day dawns.

The night fleets in what seems a mere moment, and the five remaining villagers discover that none of them have perished.

With five alive, it is three to lynch.

[soupfly]

how on earth could this possibly make sense?

5 alive

4 town

1 scum

why no lynch by scum? especially when jimmy is confirmed. this essentially gives town two shots at lynching. if mislynch today then there are still 3 town and 1 scum. if scum kill at night then we get to end game: 2 town, 1 scum.

this is absolutely baffling, the math on this makes no sense. if there had been a lynch then we'd be at four players: 3 town and 1 scum which is essentially end game because if town mislynches its game over. town would have no-lynched to get to 2 town and 1 scum but they'd still be in a position where they could not mislynch.

so basically town has been given an extra mis-lynch through this no-lynch.

i just don't get it...why give town an extra mis-lynch?

[Erg0]

Presumably to try to confuse us. Either that or we have a doctor after all. Or the last scum is setting himself up to fake a doctor claim.

Since we've got a free lynch, I can try out each of my suspects in order.

Vote: Erotomachia

[Erotomachia]

[quote"Streeflo"]If shanba comes up scum, Erotomachia will have my vote guaranteed.[/quote]

This obviously makes me extremely uncomfortable. I know that you and Erg0 are both suspicious of me, but please don't rush things.

Furthermore, the "if A is scum then so is B" argument is scummy in itself. If you're mafia, then you know that A will turn up as scum and you can use that to link the two players together and justify your vote on B.

[Erotomachia]

I'm a terrible scumhunter, but this does not make me scum. Quick lynching me would be a very foolish move.

I really don't know who the last scum is. All 3 of you are pretty suspicious. I'll admit that Erg0 certainly "looks good" since he led the lynchings of both TBS and Shanba.

It would be a extremely bold of him to do so if he were scum, so I guess I'm more suspicious of soupfly and Streeflo.

[Streeflo]

I'm not sure what to go on with the other 3.

I can see a HautBoy -- Ero pair easily

, but I can't help but imagine SoupFly-scum. I can't really see Ero and SoupFly together though, so unless they are doing some crazy distancing strategy, I would count the other as townie if one showed up as scum. So as of right now, Ero and Hautboy first.

I've pointed out my thoughts of you two as a scumpair since early Day 2. You two easily topped my list of most-likely scumpairings.

Quick-lynching you would indeed be a foolish move, and it looks lyk Erg0 beat me to the vote.

HoS: Erotomachia

[Erotomachia]

Umm...what does the case against me consist of? I can't even defend myself against a gut feeling.

[Erg0]

A few things off the top of my head:

You attacked TBS's plan fairly strongly on day 1, but voted Oman instead. I noticed that you were very cautious in putting your vote on Oman, asking the town's opinion first.

You weren't on either of the two scum wagons, and defended Shanba vigorously.

Shanba thought you were a townie based on very weak reasoning.

Throughout the early game, there's very little linking you to TBS or Zakk/Haut Boy. Haut Boy doesn't even mention you in his opening post. You comment on Zakk's lurkishness a few times, but almost always include a mention of another player (usually Langley). This is very similar to what I was seeing from TBS towards Haut Boy.

That's about it, I'd say. At this stage with two more lynches to go, it's more about deciding which player I

don't

want to lynch. There's enough evidence against you that you're not going to make it into that spot.

[Streeflo]

An awful lot of distancing between TBS and shanba.

Yeah...it wasn't really caution as much as it was helplessness. We have to lynch 3 scum in a row to win.

I have absolutely no read on Haut Boy

. And I don't want to lynch somebody just because he hasn't posted. He's been gone from the entire site for 11 days, so it's unclear whether he's actually lurking or just completely inactive.

...<snip>...

I also just realized that what I posted earlier about "one of the 3 being scum" is basically a truism. From everyone's perspective (except Jimmy's), there are 4 suspects, 2 of whom must be scum. So, yes, it's obvious, but my point was that

I wanted to focus on the 3 people besides Haut Boy

.

Mod

, can you prod or replace Haut Boy?

In which you defend HautBoy. In all honestly, townies defend scum too, but that doesn't stop it from looking very bad.

shanba was convinced that you were town based off of what was essentially one tell, which I thought was null.

You stayed completely clear from the TBS wagon, essentially lurking through the whole lynch.

Soupfly is still my top choice.

I've been re-reading and thinking about Erg0/Streeflo's votes for TBS and Shanba. Streeflo's votes are obviously more scummy. This is especially true in regards to Shanba - I don't see why a pro-town player would place a second vote on an inactive player at Lylo, opening up the possibility for a quicklynch.

Shanba's vote still doesn't make any sense to me at all. By trying to guess whether Erg0 or Streeflo are scum, you effectively have a 50% of catching scum. Since you've said that soupfly would be their only logical scum partner, then voting for him should give you a 100% of getting scum (according to your assumptions, which are that I'm town and that a Erg0+Streeflo scumpair is unlikely).

I find it sort of eerie how alike Erg0 and Streeflo are. They've voted for the same person, in the same order, for the past two days. They both share exactly the same suspicions today, and are pretty obstinate in those convictions. They haven't really analyzed each other or soupfly, focusing almost entirely on Shanba.

Soupfly, on the other hand, has jumped around a lot. In fact, I find it pretty astonishing how fluid his suspicions have been today. He's gone from calling me Haut Boy's scum partner to calling me "more town than any of us." (I'm starting to wonder whether he's "buddying up" to me right now.) He's gone from a tentative support of Erg0 and Streeflo's votes for Haut Boy, to calling Haut Boy town, to saying now that Shanba is the best place for his vote. And in between all that, he's even found the time to declare that he would be pushing for an Erg0 lynch.

In short, soupfly is literally all over the place, and this only makes me more uncomfortable.

It's curious that Streeflo and Erg0 haven't noticed this and and actually regard soupfly as one of the most pro-town players.

Most people have probably assumed that I take Shanba's innocence as a given. This isn't quite true. Shanba certainly might be scum - I just think that we have much better choices right now. The only thing that disturbs me is that Shanba's current vote is illogical: given his suspicions, he should be leaning toward soupfly.

Although

I would greatly prefer a soupfly lynch

, given the total lack of support for it (Erg0 and Streeflo seem like they won't budge, and soupfly obviously won't vote for himself) I would also support a Erg0 or Streeflo lynch. It's hard to tell which one is a better choice (I strongly doubt that they are both scum), but for the moment I think I'd prefer a Streeflo lynch.

The point is that we need to come to consensus.

The italicized portion is misrepresentation, which could be intended or not. Either way, me and Erg0 both responded to it.

Over the past few posts of this, you seem to be building a soupfly case centered around how he jumps around with his votes. However, when no one supports you, you jump right off and the next post you "made up your mind" and slapped a vote on me.

My main case against you is all the links between you and HautBoy/shanba, and lurking right through the TBS wagon.

[Streeflo]

EBWOP: Now that I think about it, even if I put another vote on Erotomachia, the scum would not quicklynch because we have an extra lynch due to the NK.

Vote: Erotomachia