Micro 449: One Night Ultimate Werewolf (Game Over!)

vettrock · Post Post #125 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2015 6:15 am

In post 120, Not_Mafia wrote:WIFOM. Do you have an actual reason to question the fuzzy lynch? It seems like everyone else is comfortable with it

In post 122, snscompt1 wrote:wifom. Thats how one night ultimate werewolf works at this stage.

We know one of sns and NM is werewolf or minion. Both are saying that we should vote fuzzy. If fuzzy is were werewolf, I guess that mean one of them is trying to divert attention away from him by pointing at him? Without another viable candidate, I'm not sure the WIFOM works here.

If we assume SNS is scum, who are the candidates?

vonflare · Post Post #126 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2015 6:17 am

EVERYONE VOTE N_M

AT LEAST A 50/50 SHOT

Fuzzy is more like ~25%

ActionDan · Post Post #127 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:54 am

In post 125, vettrock wrote:If fuzzy is were werewolf, I guess that mean one of them is trying to divert attention away from him by pointing at him?

Yes.

Also fuzzy is kinda obvious in being scum via his posts. But I would like to sort who's voting who because... we actually need a majority

ActionDan · Post Post #128 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:56 am

I suppose we could try tying it up somehow

ActionDan · Post Post #129 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:57 am

though that will never work

vonflare · Post Post #130 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:07 am

VOTE NOTMAF

snscompt1 · Post Post #131 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:44 am

In post 126, vonflare wrote:EVERYONE VOTE N_M

AT LEAST A 50/50 SHOT

Fuzzy is more like ~25%

Mind explaining this and how you arrived at these numbers?

Not_Mafia · Post Post #132 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:51 am

It's not 50-50 as if we lynch minion we lose. It's more like 80% Fuzzy 20% sns

snscompt1 · Post Post #133 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:57 am

*sigh* I wanted him to explain for a reason.

snscompt1 · Post Post #134 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:10 am

Basically Im either voting Fuzzy. The end.

NM-50/50 shot. Yes. He is scum, however very inclined to believe he is a minion.
Vonflare- Possible candidate but NM had him roleclaim first. Weird seeing how claiming later would be more beneficial.
Fuzzy-NM did a rvs vote on him first post. Couldve been trying to signal that he was a minion since werewolves dont know who the minion is.

Since one of the villagers HAS to be scum, and it doesnt seem to be Vonflare otherwise he would be fine with us lynching Fuzzy, it must be Fuzzy.

So we have 2 scum. Both might be werewolves. Doubtful.
Lets assume the worst and we have a Minion and Werewolf.
Both are a 50/50 shot. If there is only one Werewolf in the game, they get to look at a card in the middle. NM got card B wrong however, his card C prediction would be correct. This leans towards NM being a werewolf.

Everything else, and I mean literally all the Wifom and various reasons, points to Fuzzy being the werewolf.
if NM is the werewolf, then he wouldnt know who the minion is. But his random vote on fuzzy discourages this idea.

Vote fuzzy. We have a 50/50 shot at winning. Vote NM we have a 50/50 shot at winning.

vettrock · Post Post #135 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:45 am

VOTE: NightFall I don't think more discussion is going to get us any closer. We need to take our stab and see what happens.

snscompt1 · Post Post #136 (ISO) » Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:25 am

Fuzzy and Vonflare, would you please vote Nightfall. No more discussion is really going to happen. So we could drag it out til the end of the week but let's not.

vonflare · Post Post #137 (ISO) » Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:31 am

I'm voting NM.

Much better option.

Not_Mafia · Post Post #138 (ISO) » Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:33 am

Basically 24 hours with no discussion. Time for day to end

snscompt1 · Post Post #139 (ISO) » Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:34 am

Do what you want. I'm not. Nor is anyone else as far as I can tell. So go for it.

pedit: yup.

ActionDan · Post Post #140 (ISO) » Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:55 am

basically we can afford one naysayer. So I guess vonflare wants to be the one.

vettrock · Post Post #141 (ISO) » Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:11 am

We have 5 out of 7 voting for Nightfall. Need to the other two to end early.

ika · Post Post #142 (ISO) » Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:14 pm

so its vote fuzzy/NM?

snscompt1 · Post Post #143 (ISO) » Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:04 pm

It's vote Fuzzy.

ActionDan · Post Post #144 (ISO) » Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:43 am

In post 143, snscompt1 wrote:It's vote Fuzzy.

vonflare · Post Post #145 (ISO) » Wed Mar 04, 2015 3:17 am

why is fuzzy better than N_M?

there are limited potions:

NM is warewolf, FUZ is warewolf

NM is warewolf, FUZ is minion

NM is minion, FUZ is warewolf

NM is warewolf, FUZ is town

NM is minion, FUZ is town

NM is obviously the better option, becuase NM is confscum, fuzzy is probscum.

Not_Mafia · Post Post #146 (ISO) » Wed Mar 04, 2015 3:20 am

At what point did I become confscum?

Thesp · Post Post #147 (ISO) » Wed Mar 04, 2015 4:11 am

Official Vote Count

Nightfall

(5): ika, snscompt1, Not_Mafia, ActionDan, vettrock

Not Voting

(2): vonflare, fuzzybutternut

Deadline

: (expired on 2015-03-12 10:00:00)

Prodding all players who have not posted in the last 48 hours.

vonflare · Post Post #148 (ISO) » Wed Mar 04, 2015 4:46 am

In post 146, Not_Mafia wrote:At what point did I become confscum?

If you were town, you would be pushing harder for sns lynch. You seem oddly content with fuzzy lynch.

Not_Mafia · Post Post #149 (ISO) » Wed Mar 04, 2015 5:05 am

Because I thnk sns is minion, and how does that apply any more to me than it does sns?