Micro 533: Restricted Great Idea Mafia (Game over)

[SilverWolf]

I would be extremely surprised if a 9 player game was multiball. I don't think I've ever seen that before.

I do like that ASP took the time to meta me before giving a read. While scum can do that, I think that level of trying to figure someone else out is more town motivated than not. I need to see a lot more but I like that one post so far.

[GuiltyLion]

Oh, maybe I misinterpreted the setup. I read the requirement that "there is at least one scum faction with 2 or more members" and thought that a setup with a scum faction of 2 and a scum faction of 1 is allowable.

But I realize now that if both have to have at least two members then it's very unlikely in terms of probability.

@mod - do any and all scum factions have to have at least 2 members?

Sorry if this is a newbie question

[A Simple Plan]

The way GI mafia works is that at least one faction must be two or more members, but because of the way the deck is set up, YES it can be multiball, and NO not all factions must be two or more (think the other as basically a Serial Killer/survivor?) at least in my experience. Speculating about setup, especially in GI mafia, is useless, because from a technical standpoint, there is no guarantee even that we aren't in LYLO right now other than the implication Based upon lack of quick wagons/hammers during RVS.

@ASP

- This question feels a bit forced, Soren has had only four posts and only three of substance (I'm ignoring 14). I'm going to assume you are asking me about him in particular because my RVS vote is there and I joked that we should get more votes on his wagon.

His initial question to Not_Mafia about his claim is null to me, could be either town!Soren asking for clarity and a read on Not_Mafia or scum!Soren rolefishing to assess whether NM would be a good NK. He didn't follow up on it after NM rebuffed him, which I think is slightly more likely to come from scum (if town, what was the point of asking the question if you don't care about the answer?), but it's not extremely indicative. In 47 he claims there is "something to be learned" from the claim, but doesn't offer up what he learned other than a theory that NM is "trying to get attention to himself", which seems to me fairly shallow evaluation and not a deep effort to discern alignment.

I don't pay any attention to who RVS votes who very early. My question was because in 64, you used Soren's comment in 47 to discredit yourself a possible read on Kop, and I wanted to see if you were buddying or not, maybe something was linking you. Your response is reasonable, but you seem reluctant to offer any sort of solid thoughts. All you've got is that everything is "not extremely indicative" or "slightly" one way or another.

Now as for something that did seem a bit odd to me:

Not_Mafia's claim instinctively makes me read him as town because of the obvious attention it would draw. The silence is consistent with meta from both sides, so is in effect a null thing.

If something is town because of obvious attention, what prevents scum from doing it for towncred? And if you're going to hedge your read with his subsequent silence, then how is this read of yours any less WIFOM-y than my 64?

Nothing prevents him from doing it as scum, but based on my experience with NM, that's not a scum!NM play.

My comment about the silence thereafter from NM is not to discredit my read; it is a "tread wearily, this isn't always a scum thing from him" statement, intended to specify that a case built on him because of it wouldn't have my vote because it's

not a telling thing

. My read is still a gut town based upon the claim, and I don't understand the "WIFOM" claim against it you're making because it doesn't introduce the concept of "town would do this, so scum could do it to look town, therefore how is it really town?" that your post has.

[GuiltyLion]

you seem reluctant to offer any sort of solid thoughts. All you've got is that everything is "not extremely indicative" or "slightly" one way or another.

That's because I don't yet have any solid thoughts on Soren. I simply don't have strong feelings one way or the other about a player who has 4 posts, especially since Soren is presumably competent and hasn't written anything that would be a noticeable scumtell (if he is scum). If you saw a scumtell that I missed, you should share it.

I willingly volunteered my relatively stronger read on SilverWolf and made a "solid thought" about something town that you did. I also notice your point about searching for links between Soren and me, that is a town motivation behind your question that I originally missed. So you're also a slight townlean for me now.

However, you didn't address what I think is my most important question: Do you expect town!GuiltyLion to have a firmer read on Kop [or Soren] than scum!GuiltyLion?

If you don't, then I don't see how my lack of solid reads on those players at this point can tell you anything about my alignment. Exploring a potential link between Soren and me makes sense, but otherwise I don't think it's productive to ask me for firmer reads this early in D1.

My comment about the silence thereafter from NM is not to discredit my read; it is a "tread wearily, this isn't always a scum thing from him" statement, intended to specify that a case built on him because of it wouldn't have my vote because it's not a telling thing.

Ah okay, this was a misunderstanding on my part. I thought that when you said "is in effect a null thing", you were clarifying that your overall read on him is null, but I see now that you meant that the silence is null, whereas the immediate claim pings you as gut town. I misread it and you are right to ignore my question about WIFOM.

[SilverWolf]

VOTE: Soren

Only one of her 4 posts says anything and it isn't really showing me much.

This is too UTR, safe type of play.

[ChannelDelibird]

Vote Count 1.2

Soren (3):

GuiltyLion, Kop, SilverWolf

GuiltyLion (2):

Vedith, A Simple Plan

GrayFox (1):

Not_Mafia

Fro99er (1):

GrayFox

Vedith (1):

Soren

Not voting (1): Fro99er

With 9 alive, it'll take 5 votes to lynch.

Deadline: (expired on 2015-10-10 20:54:00)

@mod - do any and all scum factions have to have at least 2 members?

One of the two guarantees that I made when randomising the setup was that there must be at least one scum faction of two or more members. This does not preclude the possibility of a second scum faction with fewer than two members.

[Kop]

So that basically says there could be a

possibility

of being multi ball, but to be honest, I'd rather not speculate on that right this minute, we can leave that for day two once we have actions in, night kills to prove that theory before we can start speculating on that.

Talking about it now, doesn't offer anything and we may end up implicating people for the sake of guess work on setup.

[Soren]

Post 31 is bad, since it was relatively clear to me what Silver's posts meant, and 33 is a useless question, but 40 was meant to create discussion and switching vote in 35 reads like someone flailing around trying to make activity happen. It's activity for the sake of activity rather than directed questioning, but I think scum would have an easier time lurking than making 8 or 9 posts on one page. He explains his motives in 41 and I thought it was genuine. Although posts like 46 are pretty worthless.

Then with all that said, what is your read on him? You say "scum would have an easier time lurking" and he's "genuine", but you also pick out his "worthless" and "bad" posts, say he's "flailing", and say it's "activity for the sake of activity". I'm not sure you are doing anything more than stating some stuff and appearing to waffle on Kop. You've at very best made it wholly unclear where you stand on this, like you don't want to make any waves.

I like this.
= = = = = = = = = = =
58 to 67 looks pretty solid to me. GL expresses his thoughts on kop and ultimately doesn't come up with a definite read, frog questions on it and learns that it is a null read. I like how GL handled frog's line of questioning and how he responded, like he was clear on his null read, and wasn't dilly dalling on reads. I like how frog voted on GL to further the pressure to bring forth interaction and response, and also to understand more clearly about GL's read. They both come off as town to me here.

@Soren-My read on Kop is not weird if you understand that I know him very well. In the town game we played together we were Masons and shared a PT all game with daytalk. In the last game we played, he was scum and neighborized me. So I think that gives me some ability to determine his alignment earlier that other people would be able to.

I thought he was looking like scum in the beginning because his answers were more theory type things and not saying much which is characteristic of how he acts as scum.

I changed it to town when he started questioning me and trying to get the conversation going and since then it has strengthened somewhat because it appears that he is engaged in the game and scumhunting which is much more like how he is as town and also how any townie should be behaving overall.

Ok, I see now. What about the possibility of him manipulating his meta? Because I've town or scum read someone in the past based on my previous experience on them pretty early in the game, but in the end I found that I'm wrong. Which meant that I either didn't have a clear idea of their town/scum game, or they manipulated their meta/changed their play.

His initial question to Not_Mafia about his claim is null to me, could be either town!Soren asking for clarity and a read on Not_Mafia or scum!Soren rolefishing to assess whether NM would be a good NK. He didn't follow up on it after NM rebuffed him, which I think is slightly more likely to come from scum (if town, what was the point of asking the question if you don't care about the answer?), but it's not extremely indicative. In 47 he claims there is "something to be learned" from the claim, but doesn't offer up what he learned other than a theory that NM is "trying to get attention to himself", which seems to me fairly shallow evaluation and not a deep effort to discern alignment.

So

@Soren

- do you think drawing attention onto himself is more likely to come from town!NM or scum!NM?

I didn't follow up after NM rebuffed me because he clearly wasn't going to tell me what he was doing. Shallow evaluation because there wasn't much to assess.
Right now I'm thinking town, I have a reason, and I'm not sure if I should say it, because if I do, it can help town but also help scum. And if I don't say it, it can either harm or help town, and also help scum.

Strongest read I have right now is probably a townlean on SilverWolf, because of 69 and 70. These are the subtle kinds of town-motivated questions that scum have to be on the ball in order to quickly call out. I also give a few townpoints to ASP for linking to a past game of SilverWolf's (that he was not involved in), that indicates that he's put in some work to discern her alignment.

Really? They appear to be easy questions that doesn't require much effort to me. I agree on your second read though.

Actually, a quick EBWOP hedge on my last sentence - I didn't originally consider that this is multiball, so it's possible that ASP is one scum faction assessing whether SilverWolf could belong to the other. It might be better to just weigh it as evidence against a hypothesis that ASP and SilverWolf are on the same team.

I like this follow up, you give a more developed read on it.

VOTE: Soren

Only one of her 4 posts says anything and it isn't really showing me much.

This is too UTR, safe type of play.

What's UTR? And no, I'm not playing it safe.
What made you pick me as oppose to not mafia and gray? Each of which hasn't really shown anyone much of what they think about the game.
And given that you've fallen onto voting for someone who hasn't posted much, are most of your reads on the others town/null or in other words, no scum reads?

[Vedith]

Oh, maybe I misinterpreted the setup. I read the requirement that "there is at least one scum faction with 2 or more members" and thought that a setup with a scum faction of 2 and a scum faction of 1 is allowable.

But I realize now that if both have to have at least two members then it's very unlikely in terms of probability.

@mod - do any and all scum factions have to have at least 2 members?

Sorry if this is a newbie question

There's nothing to stop scum teams only 1 apart from general standard setups. I agree with whoever it was. There won't be multi in a 9 man setup.

[ChannelDelibird]

Not_Mafia has been prodded.

[Not_Mafia]

Time passes, so quickly

[Not_Mafia]

VOTE: KOP

[SilverWolf]

It kind of bothers me that a few people are giving NM a pass and calling him town for his play. He strikes me as one of those players that naked votes, doesn't say much, and has to be prodded. I absolutely can't stand playing with people like that because they are unreadable. I have no idea why anyone is calling him town. I have him at completely null and that's where he stays until he posts some content. I got scolded by Soren for thinking Kop was acting more like his town self due to meta but for some reason NM would not be able to emulate this as scum and must be town.

@NM-Why Kop?

Also, null on grayfoxxxx. I know from playing with him in the past that he's slow to get started as town but I'd like him to come in here and answer my question and explain his townread on Kop.

@grayfoxxxx-Why is Kop town to you?

Vedith is also null but I think I read somewhere that he's more active and involved as scum.

@Fro99er-Why are Soren's posts town to you?

[Not_Mafia]

I see a big iso, with not much going on

[SilverWolf]

Why Soren Kop?

I chose a name that stood out from that vote count in hope to get something going. It had been almost 6 hours and nobody made a post. I'm trying to engage some discussion.

Is this still the reason you are voting for Soren or is there something else?

[Vedith]

Vedith is also null but I think I read somewhere that he's more active and involved as scum.

I only have 1 scum game.
People try to meta me for me being active or not - that's null.

[SilverWolf]

Ok, I see now. What about the possibility of him manipulating his meta? Because I've town or scum read someone in the past based on my previous experience on them pretty early in the game, but in the end I found that I'm wrong. Which meant that I either didn't have a clear idea of their town/scum game, or they manipulated their meta/changed their play.

Yep, and this is something I'm going to be watchful for. Meta is a tool I use and usually just recent meta and even better if I've actually been in a game with someone but I never use it all by itself. I'm not inclined to think he's scum right now but I will be keeping an eye on him to make sure.

VOTE: Soren
Only one of her 4 posts says anything and it isn't really showing me much.
This is too UTR, safe type of play.

What's UTR? And no, I'm not playing it safe.
What made you pick me as oppose to not mafia and gray? Each of which hasn't really shown anyone much of what they think about the game.
And given that you've fallen onto voting for someone who hasn't posted much, are most of your reads on the others town/null or in other words, no scum reads?

UTR=under the radar and when you add in that your play is safe, that's the basis for a scumread. It's D1 without a lot to go on but that's where I'm at right now. I don't vote for completely null people as a rule unless I think that pressure will bring them into the game.

@Soren-why is it that you didn't like GL's read on me because you thought my questions were easy but were so willing to accept his read on ASP who has only posted 2 posts and is basically reading him as town for doing meta research. Why is meta research more townie to you than asking questions?

[A Simple Plan]

So that basically says there could be a

possibility

of being multi ball, but to be honest, I'd rather not speculate on that right this minute, we can leave that for day two once we have actions in, night kills to prove that theory before we can start speculating on that.

Talking about it now, doesn't offer anything and we may end up implicating people for the sake of guess work on setup.

Aka, what I said before the mod clarified. Thank you, captain obvious.

Oh, maybe I misinterpreted the setup. I read the requirement that "there is at least one scum faction with 2 or more members" and thought that a setup with a scum faction of 2 and a scum faction of 1 is allowable.

But I realize now that if both have to have at least two members then it's very unlikely in terms of probability.

@mod - do any and all scum factions have to have at least 2 members?

Sorry if this is a newbie question

There's nothing to stop scum teams only 1 apart from general standard setups. I agree with whoever it was. There won't be multi in a 9 man setup.

Wait, what?

Vedith is also null but I think I read somewhere that he's more active and involved as scum.

I only have 1 scum game.
People try to meta me for me being active or not - that's null.

Self-meta isn't exactly a good strategy. I typically read it as a scummy tactic. I do want to know where Silver is getting that quoted info though.

---

Soren's response to pressure in 82 is fairly decent. Slight townlean based on the response. I would like to hear the answer to Silver's question at the bottom of 91.

[Fro99er]

But this just ignores it entirely and disregards it as noise in the background. I think there is some thing to be learnt behind not_mafia's claim, especially how he plays it off as he didn't claim at all. My theory is he is trying to get attention to himself, for what reason I am unsure.

Theory right or wrong, this is a pretty town post.

How is this a town post?

I guess it was a gut feel at the time, because wanting to learn something from it feels like town trying to figure the game out. But given its great idea mafia, it could be scum role fishing.

Sleeping on it, I'm less concinced it's town, especially given he proposes a theory then doesn't follow up on it.

There's some very simple answers why NM wants attention, and some more complex ones as well. But he doesn't even go proposing/speculating what they might be, so that is petty meh.

[Fro99er]

And now I see Soren did follow up and propose something he is keeping hidden for pro-town reasons in 82. I think the same thing I came up with. That makes me feel better about Soren.

[Fro99er]

I would be extremely surprised if a 9 player game was multiball. I don't think I've ever seen that before.

I have

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=62222

[Fro99er]

Like why would you disregard the possibility of multiball when the mod listed three factions in the intro posts and the setup of restricted great idea mafia uses the mafia/alien deck?

[Fro99er]

And then ASP went at length to explain it could be multiball and Wolfie doesn't comment on that?

[Fro99er]

So that basically says there could be a

possibility

of being multi ball, but to be honest, I'd rather not speculate on that right this minute, we can leave that for day two once we have actions in, night kills to prove that theory before we can start speculating on that.

Talking about it now, doesn't offer anything and we may end up implicating people for the sake of guess work on setup.

Uuugggh the quoted above by Kop sounds way too much like this: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p7141971

VOTE: Kop

[GuiltyLion]

Really? They appear to be easy questions that doesn't require much effort to me. I agree on your second read though.

I agree that they are easy questions that do not require much effort, but my thinking last night was that they are also questions that are easy to

forget

to ask. They're questions that don't immediately jump out to me as something that needs explanation, but then I read them and think, "yeah, you know, that is something worth pressing on". So my first gut read interpretation is that lazy scum that's trying to blend in (and not truly solve the game) would take those posts that she questioned at the surface level and not bother to press for details.

That being said, I wasn't a fan of SilverWolf's vote in 79. It felt rushed and lazy, but if her thinking was along the lines of the question she posed in 91 then it makes a bit more sense.

Also her point about Not_Mafia in 87 firmed up my townread of her a little bit as well.

UNVOTE: , I don't want my vote here anymore at the moment.
--

I don't think speculating on the setup is entirely useless. We shouldn't be implicating people based on convoluted theories about multiple scum factions, but I think it's worth keeping in mind that we may be dealing with two entirely separate groups of scum, and so associative tells do not necessarily guarantee towncred should one person flip scum. I think Kop had a good point about waiting for NKs.

However, I very much agree with Frogger that 81 reads like scum talking about theory as an effort to look town. There was a lot of significant content between 55 and 81 and Kop commented on none of it, and asked questions about none of it.

VOTE: Kop -

This is L-2

Kop

, what do you think of the back and forth between A Simple Plan and me, and did it tell you anything about our alignments?

My one hesitation about this vote is that Not_Mafia was the first vote here.

Not_Mafia

, you say not much is going on in Kop's ISO. What's going on in yours?