Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain (GG)

[SirCakez]

I watched this from around day two. It was... interesting.
DS should have been lynched as soon as Metrion flipped town. He didn't claim a ninja-bypasser with his role so it should have been an automatic tip off that he was scum.
The unlynchable unless Elbirn died mechanic was really questionable imo.

[G[o]dz]

I thought it was likely Mr Ion had been tracked to Mr Freezer (as turns out to actually be the case, so there was no actual lie going on there). The question was "how did it happen?" and my first guess was never going to be "ninja bypassing tracker" because that is just such a ludicrously stupid role that it should never be in a game. It is far more likely (IMO) that some outside influence affected things in some way (like disabling passives or some other such thing) and that wasn't necessarily related to Mr Sentinel's role, given all other factors (something delayed Mr Freezer's flip on the night he happened to be targeted by Mr Ion with a role similar in nature and we have someone who saw it happen (and atually did see it happen). Shenanigans were at play; it just wasn't clear what shenanigans were at play.

[TheCow]

I spectated after flaking. Don't know what's more questionable between the #bigplays or the design choices, though at least Cabd tried something new. The large neighborhood was interesting. The "Trackers" were an interesting idea, but I don't really think they panned out so well. The Ninja townie and the anti-town ninja-piercing felt odd and kind of redundant in practice, design wise.

Anyway, majority of the scum was confirmed or nearly so end-game so I don't see why they didn't get massacred.

Full spoilers when and/or where?

[T-Bone]

Uhhh I think the scum team deserves some if not most of the credit regardless of set up choices. A perfect victory is a perfect victory, thanks.

[T-Bone]

And the set up wasn't bad, town just made the wrong choices while we made the correct ones. We killed the players the way we did to influence the town. We led random lynches on ouyr unlychable slot to influence play. That might be the only bad design choice, other than that night abilities were surprisingly balanced. Odd choices like the ninja immune track doesn't mean it was a bad choice. I'm all four building redundancy in a set up.

It was a good game Cabd, don't let em tell you otherwise.

Also I scumslipped hard in the neighborhood by the way. Glad you guys didn't catch it. I had thought I was giving instructions to my team and posted it in the neighborhood instead. Prompted the Mod to change the name of my scum topic as a result. Having two PTs was sooooooooooooooooooooooooo stressful you have no idea. I will be happy if I never have to do that again.

[T-Bone]

Although I finally have a scum game to point people to when they get pissy.

@Titus There was something screwy there. Not one of the scum saw that, and we all read the PMs thoroughly. The OP was also edited between us seeing it and the result, too. So... Not sure what happened there.

But I wouldn't have claimed that had I known that it was part of my ability.

Also we didn't read our PMs throughly, cause we thought I was a roleblocker till right before the end of Day 2.

[T-Bone]

I also should have thought more about why Miss Bird died because (as I said in the hood) it indicated that mafia didn't want to ruin the status quo. That said... I feel no regret and no remorse about lynching Mr Cain.

On the Farside kill it was more important to kill her at that point than anything else so it had to happen or we were going to lose. And you are fought, I did not want a new voice in the game when I was entering the final day with virtually all the control over the player list. Entering this day everyone trusted me and would ultimately do what I want. We almost killed your slot for the dsame reason but killed GIF invade he shot right. Basically all the kills were made to protect Elbrin and so I could have control of the game. With Titus and Farside dead I had nearly all the control once you were pacified.

[fferyllt]

Yeah, you played really well t-bone.

I'd like to read the PTs. I had some good reads, but I also had some terrible ones. My best day was day 1, and it wasn't great.

[T-Bone]

Your reads are why you never got killed. We killed Ranger Day 1 because I was afraid of his reads. He was very on point.

The PTs will explain a lot. Like us having a three man scum team for half this game. Risky decisions were made. I knew the only way we could win this game was with a clean sweep. Once one of them got flipped my position in the neighborhood would unravel and we'd go down like dominoes.

[G[o]dz]

THE BONERIZOR,

Do the math. Seriously. In approximately one in six games, you were expected to win this with a perfect victory. That's not even the overall chance of a mafia win, which I imagine was quite high but it's probably too hard to work out the actual number. That's not good setup design, even apart from certain other design choices. Like even if you ignore everything else, town got two mislynches in a four-mafia game before it was lylo. That would have been a whopping three if we didn't lynch the unlynchable mafia. In a standard game, town should be getting size of mafia team + 1 mislynches. Your standard 13p game is 10:3 which allows for 3 incorrect lynches before lylo. Your standard smaller game, 7:2, allows for 2 incorrect lynches before lylo. 13:4 is standard for the same reason. 12:4, though? You shouldn't be giving mafia any sort of broken role if you're going to make a setup inherently mafia-sided by numbers alone.

You guys didn't lead lynches on the unlynchable player, you were serendipitous enough that someone who should never have made it anywhere near end-game was unlynchable.

Nobody on your team was being town-read for play reasons besides you. You did a good job of being town-read in that regard (though I don't personally know why people had you as town based on play and I'm not sure anyone really explained that, I largely ignored it because I was speculating the neighborhood was town due to how night three played out - something I shouldn't have done). But honestly, the mafia win isn't because of any grand mafia play, it's largely because town played incredibly sub-optimally in a setup that really should never have been approved by any sane reviewer.

I don't think you played badly, but this game isn't going to be remembered as some great feat by the mafia team. You didn't pull off a miracle. You guys just played a solid game with the advantage you had in this setup.

I still don't really understand the Miss 22 shot - that was an incredibly sub-optimal shot unless you (coincidentally correctly) thought I was going to be dumb and not protect the obvious target.

[T-Bone]

I manipulated you hard, that wasn't the setup, that was me.

[T-Bone]

Also I led the first lynch on PV's slot, as well as every lynch there after, thanks.

[G[o]dz]

Yes, OK.

You got me.

As I said in the hood, your play was very town and the way night three played out was most certainly not the entire reason I was reading you as town.

[G[o]dz]

Do you honestly not remember exactly what I said when I did what I did night three?

The entire reason I did what I did was

because

I was very strongly considering the fact that you were mafia (which is why leading up to it, I gave you no inclination I thought anything was off about your play, before making a big reveal at the N3 deadline). And the only reason I wrote you off as town is

because

killing Miss 22 made absolutely no sense (and still doesn't) given what I was saying in the hood and the fact we knew her role. It was obviously flawed logic on my part, but nothing there was "manipulation" on your behalf. I just made a very poor, faulty assumption.

You played well enough that you were town-read by the majority, and I will admit I did not see much in your play that made me think you were mafia, but if you honestly think you were manipulating me (unless you're referring to anything other than the shot on Miss 22) then you weren't reading my posts.

[T-Bone]

Like lynching PV is about the only thing the set up did to influence the game. At any time xtxom could have tracked the killer. Gif could have killed scum like he said he was going to do instead of switching at the last minute. Met could have not power role claimed in thread and DS tracks someone else. You could have protected Farside. Farside coiukd have copped her #1 scumread. Kate could have blocked a kill. Town based all these things they could do and we were powerless to stop it. DS could track, Elbrin could delay the flip, and I could reload shots. That's it. The balance in this game was incredible town power vs modified unlynchable scum (which unravels iuf someone catches Elbrin or he gets lynched instead of Titus). Appreciate how much power the town actually had. Nero's role ewas the only one who didnt have the power to get scum. Everyone else did.

Yeah but then if go against me at the end I go "hey Nero..." and you get lynched. You weren't in as good as a position as I was after N3.

[T-Bone]

I don't deny the unlynchable scum was big , but to claim that the town had no chance because of that role and we had an easy ride is ridiculous.

[G[o]dz]

It's not that town had no chance... It's that this game was undeniably mafia-sided. Listing a bunch of things that

could

have happened doesn't change this. It's statistically unlikely a tracker gets an incriminating result in any game. Ability cops (I'm assuming Miss 22's role was no different to the inventions) wouldn't necessarily have given an incriminating result either. A lot of things could have happened that might have

influenced

the game, but that doesn't take into account the likelihood of it happening or the fact that, even if, say, 2 of the things you say could have happened and netted us mafia lynches, that wouldn't have necessarily meant a town win.

The setup wasn't balanced. Town power looks scary on paper, but it's dwarfed in comparison to both the power the mafia had and the numbers.

And yes, you probably were in a better position than I was after night three. That may or may not have been the case had I made the correct play instead of the dumb gambit I did.

[fferyllt]

I was an odd night force commuter. I basically had to choose between odd and even nights on night 1 and I chose odd. With the N3 block or whatever it was, my ability to affect the night game was seriously cut back.

[Elbirn]

Oh

As the burning man or man on fire or whatever
I had a 2 shot role which was whenever I did the NK, I could delay their flip until the following day phase.

That was all.

Also idk if cabd was going to release private threads but if yes I authorize release of the scum pt. I'm always a fan of doing that.

[Ranger]

Therefore, the mafia team of:

T-Bone
Elbirn
DiamondSentinel
PeregrineV

are the victors.

I would say congratulations if I wasn't feeling so bitter that you

let confirmed scum live for days

by not lynching DiamondSentinel,

let Elbirn's fakeclaim hold after the Painbringer lynch

, and

let T-Bone get away when he failed to hammer Elbirn D2

with a classic guilty claim in lylo.

Credit for the PV lynches, sure, but that was nullified by not being able to actually kill him.

[Ranger]

eh, your play was shit, I called you on it. You got butthurt. np.

Pot, kettle, black.

Nero, you were singlehandedly responsible for almost every town mislynch in the game and were the lylo mislynch.

You also townread most of the scum for the majority of the game, sabotaging attempts to lynch there.

Think about that for a moment before you go calling the play of other players bad.

Incidentally, I said this in the dead PT:
Every town claim.

Every

town claim was disbelieved and lynched by the town. (Except for Xtoxm who was a favored mislynch multiple times, who was disbelieved yet not lynched.)
Every scum claim was bought near-100%, no questions asked.

If you had scumhunted by tools like scumhunting, not role-speccing, maybe lynching players who were playing like scum (DS, Elbirn, and PV) would have been easier.

But I'm just bitter, because I had half the scumteam nailed on D1, died, and they ended up with a perfect win.

[Ranger]

We killed Ranger Day 1 because I was afraid of his reads. He was very on point.

Yep.

My main concern about voting pidgey is honestly that we won't get information either way. What will a town flip tell us? What will a scum flip tell us? If I could think of anything for either, I'd switch, but I can't. pidgey has a higher than standard chance of being scum, but a lynch there seems mostly like lynching for the sake of lynching.

Particularly nailed this part, more than I could EVER have known.

Having Elbirn in sight and having DiamondSentinel only not have been my N1 target thanks to a power role claim (I...honestly did not take into account that

everyone

was a power role) sucked, too.

You I wouldn't have been able to get until D2, though. It was a dead giveaway when you had the opportunity to hammer Elbirn, Painbringer was not at L-1, you were online, and you

didn't

hammer in spite of saying you would hammer whichever of the two got the most votes. That seriously happened and nobody noticed it.

[G[o]dz]

I don't think anyone bought Mr Birn's claim. Except maybe Mr Cain? Did anyone else actually have any sort of town read on Mr Birn?

[G[o]dz]

The only reason Mr Birn wasn't lynched is because (outside of D2), there was the Mr Ion vs Mr Sentinel thing D3 (which is funny because in discussions with Miss 22, I think we'd both expressed being perfectly fine with lynching Mr Birn in spite of the whole situation), and then it was LyLo. And I don't think it was reasonable to assume "PelicanV isn't necessarily town because there could be shenanigans where we have to lynch another mafia player before we can lynch him..." so when days went by without Mr Oxm being hammered, I drew the logical (wrong) conclusion; Mr Oxm was virtually confirmed mafia.

[G[o]dz]

Oh that reminds me. I miscounted the numbers when I replaced in and assumed there was an extra day before MyLo (I realised my mistake night three, at which point it was too late). A lot of the things I was thinking about were on the assumption we had an extra lynch. Whoops.