Micro 551 — Vanilla-Free Greatest Idea Mafia — Game Over!

[Hinduragi]

Nope but he has the least chances of being scum based on what I know. I'm not starting the flash wagon on him lol.

[Soren]

Explain to me how that discard gives him the least chance of being scum.

[Hinduragi]

Of his 3 cards, he chose the mafia one to discard. It's likely the other two are anti-mafia. My first set of cards was mafia, town, town. My next set was town, town, town. It's likely he didn't get more than two. He's more likely to be town however small those odds may be. I'm starting the wagon on someone else because of that knowledge.

[Vedith]

How did you get 2 sets? I was only given the one. o.0

[Soren]

It's likely the other two are anti-mafia.

You know mafia is not the only anti-town faction in this game right? His other cards could have been sk, alien, werewolve etc.

My first set of cards was mafia, town, town. My next set was town, town, town.

You speaking from past games or how did you get two sets? o.o

He's more likely to be town however small those odds may be.

Nope.

[Hinduragi]

Yes but there are more town roles than scum in the deck.

I got two sets. He said he had to re-roll in one of the first posts and pm'd me about the error.

Math is math.

[Vedith]

Math is math.

You didn't actually apply math, you just implied it.

Last time I played this, the scum chucked away another scum role (only 2 cards each).
There were Mafia and also got Werewolf.

[Soren]

I can see where you're coming from but I don't think it's a strong argument.

[Hinduragi]

124 cards. 49 scum. 75 town. Third party roles are assumed scum although if I separated them into town-beneficial vs scum-beneficial things can get dicey. Numbers used may not be correct but are close estimations.

This is the chance of

two

scum cards with one town card: 34.38%
This is the chance of

one

scum cards with one town card: 43.86%

It's obvious he can't have drawn Town-Town-Town so this doesn't add up to 100% together.

For the record, all possible combinations are going below because I'm not fucking doing this shit again ever. You can refer to this the rest of the game if the argument arises with non-vanilla.

Spoiler: Statistics

Town-Town-Town: 21.77%
Scum-Scum-Scum: 5.94%
Town-Scum-Town: 14.62%
Scum-Scum-Town: 9.48%
Scum-Town-Town: 14.62
Town-Town-Scum: 14.62%
Town-Scum-Scum: 9.48%
Scum-Town-Scum: 9.48%

---

Total

: 100.01%

I rounded percentages so the total is .01% higher than it should be.

There. I applied the maths.

[Soren]

It's still a weak argument.

[Hinduragi]

And obviously this won't be a strong argument. I'm not confirming scum. I'm telling you why I like the wagon more. Jesus fuck.

[Soren]

Ok

[Bowser]

DAY 1. VOTECOUNT 01.

(1)

Hinduragi

—

Soren

(0)

Chaotic Neutrality

—

(0)

gummmybear

—

(1)

aphix

—

EspeciallyTheLies

(0)

Soren

—

(2)

Vedith

—

aphix, Hinduragi

(0)

Suzune

—

(0)

EspeciallyTheLies

—

(1)

Lucky2u

—

Vedith

(4)

Not Voting

—

Chaotic Neutrality, gummmybear, Suzune, Lucky2u

With

9 alive

, it takes

5 votes

to lynch.

Deadline is in

(expired on 2015-12-04 15:30:52)

(Fri Dec 4 @ 3:30:00 PM EST).

NOTES.

If this is wrong, let me know.
-backup egopost-

[Chaotic Neutrality]

Of his 3 cards, he chose the mafia one to discard. It's likely the other two are anti-mafia.

Or he got three scum cards and didn't have a choice

[Chaotic Neutrality]

VOTE: Suzune

The plans they made put an end to you

[Suzune]

Lol all those town discards

Haha, seriously this was my first thought when I saw the discards. Although I have to admit, none of them jump out to me as the best card to keep, unless alignment was the reason to hold them.

I'm not sure if I would stack the odds on a game like this. There are less townie cards in the deck because of the elimination of vanilla cards that means that the chances of drawing a scum aligned card is higher. Also in your numbers does that assume that third party are scum as well?

The plans they made put an end to you

I hate when they plan against me...now, what plans exactly?

VOTE: Chaotic Neutrality

[Hinduragi]

Suzune, I'll forgive you for that because you just got in here and there's a ton of noise. We wagon Vedith now.

[Suzune]

Because...he was the last one to confirm?

Or because you want a flash wagon?

[Hinduragi]

All of the above and then some.

[Vedith]

Hind just wants attention bless him, ignore him and vote with me, Suzune.
Lucky has posted nothing town as of yet!

[gummmybear]

Tossing a quick vote down. VOTE: vedith

Will explain more when I'm back home, semi-v/la from now till Sunday evening (GMT+8) timing

[gummmybear]

Lucky has posted nothing town as of yet!

That's because he's posted nothing at all. What is the point of this wagon on someone who's not even checked in?

[Vedith]

That's because he's posted nothing at all. What is the point of this wagon on someone who's not even checked in?

You need to get out.

[Soren]

That's because he's posted nothing at all. What is the point of this wagon on someone who's not even checked in?

You need to get out.

?

[aphix]

Yeap. I'm just fine policy lynching vedith at this point. And probably will be for all time.