Mini 1747: Cinnamon Roll Mafia Endgame

davesaz · Post Post #1225 (ISO) » Sun Jan 31, 2016 7:50 pm

An aware cop enabler knows there is a cop, or at least can make a reasonable assumption that there is one.
That does not "feel" right for a town role. I would, and do, assume that it's a way to balance cop vs mafia by taking away the cop if you're unlucky to get the "wrong" guilty first. It reduces cop to something more than 1-shot but less than full.
Could it be aware and town? I guess so -- to say otherwise would not be true to myself given I just got through saying nothing is 100%.
Balance wise, a town cop enabler is a huge bonus for mafia because they get a chance to nerf the cop from either a lucky NK or a lucky mislynch, and don't take a loss themselves.

Am I 100% sure it's scum? Absolutely not! But I'd say it's definitely enough to bet on. At least as good as a pair of 10's before the flop.

I already thought Soapbar was scum.
RC showed up and laid down a "soap is scum", no discussion. Seeing the JOAT flip I'd be willing to bet that rolecop was one of the contained roles. I came right out and said at top of day that I'll be upset if RC failed to pass on info.

Syndesis · Post Post #1226 (ISO) » Sun Jan 31, 2016 8:16 pm

Alright. If Soapbar is a scum cop enabler, do you think this has implications in terms of associatives?

iraonavp · Post Post #1227 (ISO) » Sun Jan 31, 2016 8:23 pm

In post 1195, Thestatusquo wrote:
In post 1179, iraonavp wrote:There could be a scum-aligned roleblocker which could screw everything up, so that's not actually a foolproof plan.

So? What is your damn point? There is no such thing as a foolproof plan.

The problem is what I see happening if we follow that plan. Making the assumption that I am scum-aligned with davesaz and nolynching will cost the town the game.

Either you die, davesaz is lynched the next day, it's me vs. Soapbar after that.
Or you live, davesaz is lynched the next day after showing red to your check, you die, it's me vs. Soapbar after that.

That's not a position I relish being in.

But unless you are claiming that there is greater than a 33% chance that there is one (the chance of picking a player at random of the three who could be scum) this hand wringing is fucking stupid and rings hollow.

I am 99% sure davesaz is scum-aligned at this point. He claims to be a bodyguard trying to get himself killed in the place of a PR, yet hasn't protected a claimed PR. That's more enough to confirm him as scum-aligned.

iraonavp · Post Post #1228 (ISO) » Sun Jan 31, 2016 8:29 pm

Actually, I just noticed some pretty strong evidence for Soapbar / davesaz at this point anyway.

In post 1201, davesaz wrote:Cop enabler is a scum role.

He assumes that Soapbar is telling the truth about his claim here, which could be a slight tell.

The fact that he was voting him before, misses the claim, and then unvotes after he sees Soapbar's claim suggests the following interpretation:

Davesaz didn't expect Soapbar (scum-aligned cop enabler) to claim town-aligned cop enabler. Davesaz wanted to lynch Soapbar to disable Thestatusquo's ability, meaning that he doesn't have to deal with the awkward situation of being confirmed as scum-aligned if he kills Thestatusquo, he can just leave him alone.

davesaz · Post Post #1229 (ISO) » Sun Jan 31, 2016 8:34 pm

^ does anyone else see the obvious scum?

davesaz · Post Post #1230 (ISO) » Sun Jan 31, 2016 8:35 pm

In post 1226, Syndesis wrote:Alright. If Soapbar is a scum cop enabler, do you think this has implications in terms of associatives?

I'm more than 80% sure it's soap & ira.

iraonavp · Post Post #1231 (ISO) » Sun Jan 31, 2016 8:38 pm

Thestatusquo, I suggest that you cop either Soapbar or I tonight rather than davesaz. Davesaz is already all-but confirmed as scum-aligned, so copping him gives you little information. Saying you intend to cop either me or Soapbar forces davesaz to kill you tonight, or else his second partner will be found.

Otherwise, if you cop davesaz, he can kill someone else, get revealed as scum-aligned, lynched, and then you die the next night leaving me vs. Soapbar.

iraonavp · Post Post #1232 (ISO) » Sun Jan 31, 2016 8:39 pm

In post 1230, davesaz wrote:
In post 1226, Syndesis wrote:Alright. If Soapbar is a scum cop enabler, do you think this has implications in terms of associatives?

I'm more than 80% sure it's soap & ira.

I'm more than 80% sure that if you were town-aligned, you would be 100% sure, since Thestatusquo's results already confirmed that 2 / 3 of davesaz / iraonavp / Soapbar are scum-aligned!

iraonavp · Post Post #1233 (ISO) » Sun Jan 31, 2016 8:48 pm

But whatever, I guess we can win this without lynching davesaz today.

UNVOTE: davesaz

davesaz · Post Post #1234 (ISO) » Sun Jan 31, 2016 9:07 pm

Carefully read 1217, in particular the last paragraph.
Consider the list of all possible roles in a mafia game.
No, I'm not 100% sure. I have no problem at all reconciling the stated results with the possibility that they are truly the results from the mod but nevertheless incorrect.
This is yet another town tell from me.

davesaz · Post Post #1235 (ISO) » Mon Feb 01, 2016 6:28 am

VOTE: no lynch

Soapbar · Post Post #1236 (ISO) » Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:39 am

I feel like lynching davesaz beacause he's obvscum and we could probably use the cop ability better. But then again it's a pretty risky move to do so because of insta-loss. but then the plan itself is pretty risky because of a whole bunch of possible variables like investigative immunity and roleblockers.

So the question now comes down to: which plan is riskier?

Syndesis · Post Post #1237 (ISO) » Mon Feb 01, 2016 1:54 pm

We lose almost nothing by no lynching, honestly.

Syndesis · Post Post #1238 (ISO) » Mon Feb 01, 2016 1:55 pm

In post 1228, iraonavp wrote:Davesaz didn't expect Soapbar (scum-aligned cop enabler) to claim town-aligned cop enabler.

What.

Syndesis · Post Post #1239 (ISO) » Mon Feb 01, 2016 1:58 pm

In post 1230, davesaz wrote:
In post 1226, Syndesis wrote:Alright. If Soapbar is a scum cop enabler, do you think this has implications in terms of associatives?

I'm more than 80% sure it's soap & ira.

I was asking for associatives towards Soap that would indicate bussing, or somesuch, particularly D1.

ISO · Post Post #1240 (ISO) » Mon Feb 01, 2016 9:54 pm

I will cop whomever I want to. I will not make it easy for scum to predict who I am going to investigate.

FA_Q2 · Post Post #1241 (ISO) » Mon Feb 01, 2016 10:52 pm

I am sure that you will.

I cant see a town Dave though and that is where I think town should go today.

VOTE: Dave

ISO · Post Post #1242 (ISO) » Mon Feb 01, 2016 10:55 pm

...

We have a plan that gets us more information and a better percentage. Why would we lynch today...?

FA_Q2 · Post Post #1243 (ISO) » Mon Feb 01, 2016 10:58 pm

UNVOTE:

I don't really see the inherent value of not lynching the obvious scum but whatever - we can go that rout and when you die we are going to lynch dave anyway. Better hope that scum do not have a RB - that is an instant loss as well with a no lynch.

davesaz · Post Post #1244 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2016 6:50 am

And I can't see town seeing me as scum. Everything I have done is textbook town play. Except for being duped into changing my vote to Metrion, but it's no crime to be wrong occasionally.

Having more than two of you scum reading me is another reason I'm less than 100% confident in the cop reads.
Who says we even have one? I mean yeah, I'm holding out to save a cop (and I stand by that being the 100% correct

game theory

move), but that could just be wishful thinking.
I think the cop is real, and I'm betting the game on it being real, but y'all are giving me serious doubts in the innocent results.

Syndesis · Post Post #1245 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2016 1:11 pm

In post 1211, Syndesis wrote:
In post 1206, FA_Q2 wrote:I don't think RC knew anything or he was at least not sharing. One of his roles was neighborizer which was used on me. He also claimed that was his only role. The only thing brought up in the hood was that he wanted to go after synd today and possibly TSQ.

Please elaborate.

iraonavp · Post Post #1246 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2016 8:44 pm

In post 1238, Syndesis wrote:
In post 1228, iraonavp wrote:Davesaz didn't expect Soapbar (scum-aligned cop enabler) to claim town-aligned cop enabler.

What.

This is what I consider the most likely possibility based on their behavior. I think you may have missed some context!

In post 1240, Thestatusquo wrote:I will cop whomever I want to. I will not make it easy for scum to predict who I am going to investigate.

Have it your way then. I don't think you're making optimal decisions, but we'll probably win anyway.

FA_Q2 · Post Post #1247 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2016 9:28 pm

In post 1245, Syndesis wrote:
In post 1211, Syndesis wrote:
In post 1206, FA_Q2 wrote:I don't think RC knew anything or he was at least not sharing. One of his roles was neighborizer which was used on me. He also claimed that was his only role. The only thing brought up in the hood was that he wanted to go after synd today and possibly TSQ.

Please elaborate.

What is not clear. He used a neighborizer role on me and we spoke. He shared noting about his other possible roles. He wanted to push on you and TSQ showing that he really had no more info.

ISO · Post Post #1248 (ISO) » Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:24 am

how can you possibly know if I'm making an optimal decision without knowing what decision I will make?

Syndesis · Post Post #1249 (ISO) » Wed Feb 03, 2016 12:09 pm

In post 1246, iraonavp wrote:
This is what I consider the most likely possibility based on their behavior. I think you may have missed some context!

Is any scumteam so dysfunctional that they don't plan out claims beforehand?

In post 1247, FA_Q2 wrote:
What is not clear. He used a neighborizer role on me and we spoke. He shared noting about his other possible roles. He wanted to push on you and TSQ showing that he really had no more info.

Was this last night? Did RC give a reason for neighborizing you? If not, what do you think it was?