Micro 575: Twin Peak Neighborhoods Game Over

[Cobblerfone]

With nine alive it takes five to lynch!

Votecount 1.5

RedCoyote -
Frozen Jeanne -
All In - Kahlan (L-4)
Kaboose -
lewarcher82 -
Some Random Mafia Player - RedCoyote (L-4)
RadiantCowbells - Some Random Mafia Player, Frozen Jeanne, ProHawk (L-2)
ProHawk - RadiantCowbells, All In (L-3)
Kahlan -

Not Voting - Kaboose, lewarcher82

Day One Deadline

(expired on 2016-02-15 16:30:00)

[lewarcher82]

Math. It's a bit more complicated than just maximizing odds of hitting scum vs maximizing payoff by aiming at largest pool. I simulated a graph of game states in case we always lynch from the larger pool: Π(_p1^pn) for each branch of the graph, and then summed endgames. Basing on these hypotheses: 1) random lynch, 2) always hit the larger pool, 3) in this setup scum would not nk on mylo; it turned out that the townwin outcomes would make up for 0.37, vs a 0.63 of scumwin scenarios...

Then I wondered if I should make the same graph for smaller poll, and for some mixed projections, and I decided that no, not worth it. All in all, I prefer lynching in the smaller poll and maximize the odds of hitting scum on D1 (which is what would make life easier in most scenarios). And regarding my reads so far, I think that both of the most active players - who engaged in discussing math and strategy - exposed themselves way too much for being scum, so at the moment I have townreads of All In and Radiant. I therefore put a vote on someone from the big poll who voted for one of my current townreads.

Vote: Frozen Jeanne

[lewarcher82]

Oh, typo. In last post, I meant "on someone from the SMALL pool", obviously.

[Some Random Mafia Player]

UNVOTE: VOTE: Kahlan

interested in why they voted all in.

[Kahlan]

I honestly think it doesn't matter which side we vote from. scum is scum and town is town right? so lets just find scum and skip all this math hoo-ha. I feel Radiant is acting pretty scummy...

Radiant doesn't really answer questions when asked or he gives lame answers and doesn't really explain himself. For example:

because I am RC.

After he said that he didn't explain why. Even when asked multiple times by a few people. However after I asked he did give a response which was not a real answer.

I wish I knew man.

He would have known a reason for what he said since he said the statement in the first place right? I dont know something just seems little amiss. Then he votes for prohawk for reasons I'm not really sure of yet (I'm still on the fence if prohawk is scum or not) because radiant is the one that wouldn't even answer prohawks questions. Which brings me to another reason. Radiant asks for content from Prohawk yet doesnt really supply his own content for why he voting for prohawk or any other content for that matter.

AllIn is acting scummy as well. He just want to have a lynching it seems like. @AllIn do you have any other reason beside prohawk being east town that you are voting for him? If he is town I dont think he really is scum hunting very well.

Then there is SomeRandomMafia He votes for radiant and hasnt really been post anything? lurking much?

[Kahlan]

lol I was writing my post and didnt see that you had posted @SomeRandomMafia. My post should answer your post though. I feel he is just trying to lynch and not find scum. I think the sides dont need to be even in order to actually play this game but this is my second game so I might be off in my thinking. I think we as town need to team up and find scum with our question. People just need to learn how to answer questions being asked.

[RedCoyote]

I honestly think it doesn't matter which side we vote from. scum is scum and town is town right? so lets just find scum and skip all this math hoo-ha.

It's best to keep this in mind, everyone. I appreciate Kahlan bringing this up because it's easy to lose perspective of our goal when we're trying to iron out the best strategy for success. Ultimately, we have to hit scum. That said, since there is scum in both neighborhoods, this debate was bound to happen, especially on D1.

I like lewarcher's first couple of posts, and I like Kahlan's posts above as well (although I disagree with her take on Radiant ... I think she's overthinking some of his posts). It's funny that lewarcher and Kahlan are basically seeing the game exactly opposite of one another if you look at the posts together and what they're arguing.

I'm still completely unimpressed with SRMP and think he's skating by on as little input as he think he can offer in an attempt to stay out of the limelight.

[RedCoyote]

SRMP, why did you get off of the Radiant wagon?

[RadiantCowbells]

I honestly think it doesn't matter which side we vote from. scum is scum and town is town right? so lets just find scum and skip all this math hoo-ha. I feel Radiant is acting pretty scummy...

Radiant doesn't really answer questions when asked or he gives lame answers and doesn't really explain himself. For example:

because I am RC.

After he said that he didn't explain why. Even when asked multiple times by a few people. However after I asked he did give a response which was not a real answer.

I wish I knew man.

He would have known a reason for what he said since he said the statement in the first place right? I dont know something just seems little amiss. Then he votes for prohawk for reasons I'm not really sure of yet (I'm still on the fence if prohawk is scum or not) because radiant is the one that wouldn't even answer prohawks questions. Which brings me to another reason. Radiant asks for content from Prohawk yet doesnt really supply his own content for why he voting for prohawk or any other content for that matter.

AllIn is acting scummy as well. He just want to have a lynching it seems like. @AllIn do you have any other reason beside prohawk being east town that you are voting for him? If he is town I dont think he really is scum hunting very well.

Then there is SomeRandomMafia He votes for radiant and hasnt really been post anything? lurking much?

This is pretty awful. Feels like she's just grasping for an excuse to jump on the biggest wagon.

[Some Random Mafia Player]

SRMP, why did you get off of the Radiant wagon?

RVS vote at time I put it down.

Will see if its worth putting back on.

[Some Random Mafia Player]

Radiant doesn't really answer questions when asked or he gives lame answers and doesn't really explain himself. For example:
In post 40, RadiantCowbells wrote:
because I am RC.


After he said that he didn't explain why. Even when asked multiple times by a few people. However after I asked he did give a response which was not a real answer.

In post 59, RadiantCowbells wrote:
I wish I knew man.


He would have known a reason for what he said since he said the statement in the first place right?

He said he gets killed always n1 because hes RC, he doesent know why he gets killed due to being RC, but the whole thing isent alignment indicative imo.

[Some Random Mafia Player]

I honestly think it doesn't matter which side we vote from. scum is scum and town is town right? so lets just find scum and skip all this math hoo-ha. I feel Radiant is acting pretty scummy...

Radiant doesn't really answer questions when asked or he gives lame answers and doesn't really explain himself. For example:

because I am RC.

After he said that he didn't explain why. Even when asked multiple times by a few people. However after I asked he did give a response which was not a real answer.

I wish I knew man.

He would have known a reason for what he said since he said the statement in the first place right? I dont know something just seems little amiss. Then he votes for prohawk for reasons I'm not really sure of yet (I'm still on the fence if prohawk is scum or not) because radiant is the one that wouldn't even answer prohawks questions. Which brings me to another reason. Radiant asks for content from Prohawk yet doesnt really supply his own content for why he voting for prohawk or any other content for that matter.

AllIn is acting scummy as well. He just want to have a lynching it seems like. @AllIn do you have any other reason beside prohawk being east town that you are voting for him? If he is town I dont think he really is scum hunting very well.

Then there is SomeRandomMafia He votes for radiant and hasnt really been post anything? lurking much?

This is pretty awful. Feels like she's just grasping for an excuse to jump on the biggest wagon.

The thing is, he is mostly right so it is not an excuse and you can't write it off as one. You have not produced any game-related content (just speculation on which side we should lynch on which is useless) and you never explained your reasoning for lynching prohawk.

VOTE: radiantcowbells

not a rvs vote anymore.

[RadiantCowbells]

I'm not even dignifying that with a response.

[Some Random Mafia Player]

I'm not even dignifying that with a response.

still not content.

[RadiantCowbells]

since when is my content or lack thereof alignment indicative?

[Some Random Mafia Player]

since when is my content or lack thereof alignment indicative?

not posting content is never alignment indicative, and you always post some content...

[Some Random Mafia Player]

since when is my content or lack thereof alignment indicative?

not posting content is never alignment indicative, and you always post some content...

to clarify, mostly you dont post any content, but you always at least post something worthwhile, I havent seen anything worthwhile.

[RadiantCowbells]

I strongly suspect that the wagon on me is being jumped on by scum.
Hence, my Prohawk vote. Hence, my FoS on Kahlan.
I think Kahlan's reasoning (which she actually gave unlike prohawk) is extremely weak and scummy.
Get more people posting more and you'll get more from me.

[Some Random Mafia Player]

I think Kahlan's reasoning (which she actually gave unlike prohawk) is extremely weak and scummy.

but it isent weak, its correct.

[Kaboose]

UNVOTE: VOTE: Kahlan

interested in why they voted all in.

103 unvotes RC..

Between 104-108 gets asked about why they unvoted, which they respond with:

RVS vote at time I put it down.

Will see if its worth putting back on.

Then proceeds to pick out a post not by RC, and then puts the vote back on in 111...

Like that seems manufactured. Hardly built any case on RC but once someone asked about why they weren't voting RC they create content and slap a vote on. I don't like how that all went down.

VOTE: SRMP

[RadiantCowbells]

No, it really isn't.

I know experientially that I get NKed a ridiculous proportion of games; even when I've claimed VT and scum needs to kill the cop (that game's technically over now), even when my reads are piss wrong and I'm defending scum (open 615), hell, of the like 5 larges I've played I've been night killed by TWO scum factions in the same night in TWO DIFFERENT GAMES.

I don't know WHY people are terrified of my solid but not super impressive town play. I have good games and bad games, nothing justifies the rate of N1ing that I've experienced.

[Some Random Mafia Player]

Hardly built any case on RC but once someone asked about why they weren't voting RC they create content and slap a vote on. I don't like how that all went down.

I saw the case on RC, believed they had a good case, and threw a vote down.

[Some Random Mafia Player]

No, it really isn't.

I know experientially that I get NKed a ridiculous proportion of games; even when I've claimed VT and scum needs to kill the cop (that game's technically over now), even when my reads are piss wrong and I'm defending scum (open 615), hell, of the like 5 larges I've played I've been night killed by TWO scum factions in the same night in TWO DIFFERENT GAMES.

I don't know WHY people are terrified of my solid but not super impressive town play. I have good games and bad games, nothing justifies the rate of N1ing that I've experienced.

I should have clarified, the first bit about the nightkills I dident agree with and I objected to, the rest I did agree with.

[RadiantCowbells]

Well, the rest is just laziness.

When Frozen and Jeanne show up and start posting more I'll be more inclined to generate discussion.

[lewarcher82]

I honestly think it doesn't matter which side we vote from. scum is scum and town is town right? so lets just find scum and skip all this math hoo-ha. I feel Radiant is acting pretty scummy...

Radiant doesn't really answer questions when asked or he gives lame answers and doesn't really explain himself. For example:

because I am RC.

After he said that he didn't explain why. Even when asked multiple times by a few people. However after I asked he did give a response which was not a real answer.

I wish I knew man.

He would have known a reason for what he said since he said the statement in the first place right? I dont know something just seems little amiss. Then he votes for prohawk for reasons I'm not really sure of yet (I'm still on the fence if prohawk is scum or not) because radiant is the one that wouldn't even answer prohawks questions. Which brings me to another reason. Radiant asks for content from Prohawk yet doesnt really supply his own content for why he voting for prohawk or any other content for that matter.

AllIn is acting scummy as well. He just want to have a lynching it seems like. @AllIn do you have any other reason beside prohawk being east town that you are voting for him? If he is town I dont think he really is scum hunting very well.

Then there is SomeRandomMafia He votes for radiant and hasnt really been post anything? lurking much?

Well my reads are basically the opposite of yours (except for SRM, on whom I don't have a read, yet). Let me ask you: according to what you wrote, would you consider it likely that SomeRandomMafia and AllIn could be both scum? If so, why? If not, why?