Micro 575: Twin Peak Neighborhoods Game Over

[RadiantCowbells]

Where did I say that I think you are scum?

[Frozen Jeanne]

Quit playing pretend >.>

and/or FJ are scum and it's a 1 lynch freebie.

Which would be nice!

[RadiantCowbells]

You're blatantly misinterpreting things.

I said that I will be able to sort the two of you with 100% accuracy.
That means that if we lynch in YOUR neighbourhood, either

1) You guys are scum and we lynch you for free
or
2) You aren't scum and we have a 1/3 chance of hitting scum.

I have made no judgement as to your alignment at this point and will not do so until FA posts because I can read her better than I can read you.

[Frozen Jeanne]

And how you know who am I? After all, we have similar posting style.

[RadiantCowbells]

You aren't talking to me like FA does, you're talking to me like Jeanne.

[Cobblerfone]

With nine alive it takes five to lynch!

Votecount 1.3

RedCoyote -
Frozen Jeanne -
All In - RedCoyote, RadiantCowbells, Kahlan (L-2)
Kaboose -
lewarcher82 -
Some Random Mafia Player - ProHawk (L-4)
RadiantCowbells - Some Random Mafia Player, Frozen Jeanne, All In (L-2)
ProHawk -
Kahlan -

Not Voting - Kaboose, lewarcher82

Day One Deadline

(expired on 2016-02-15 16:30:00)

[ProHawk]

Yo Radiant...

[RadiantCowbells]

yo?

[Kahlan]

@RaidantCowbells I think he wants you to answer his previous question.

This game setup sure does elicit good strategic discussions if nothing else... who fears you RC?

If we mislynch in small pool I die.

not doing it.

because I am RC.

Why would being RC cause you to die?

[RadiantCowbells]

I wish I knew man.

[Kaboose]

This is Jeanne head.

@All What if we don't hit scum?

Also,

intent to hammer

and will, unless my other head objects.

Why are you prepared to hammer on page 2?

[All In]

To everyone voting me: explain why lynching in the small pool is helpful or vote someone else.
Thanks.

[Kahlan]

Here's how this works: it's 5-4
We lynch the bigger group to make it 4-4
Scum kills to make it 4-3
Lynch to 3-3
Kill to 3-2
Worst case scenario at this point is a 50% chance to hit Scum and a 2-1 lylo situation

The soon er we hit Scum, the more conftown we have.
If we hit Scum on Day 1, we have 4 conftown and will have 3 conftown on Day 2 VS 4 non-conftown

This game is all about math.

Lynching in the smaller pool will always give us less conftown. How is this not obvious?

@allIn I dont think it matters in the end the ratios are the same. Say you lynch someone from the east side creating a 4:4 then scum kills making it 4:3 or 3:4. well in a good scum hunt you are trying to find the actual scum not keep eliminating players in order to find scum based on no reason. so that could make the ratio 4:2 or 2:4 that is if we as town are properly trying to find scum. Now if its 4:2 after the lynch then more than likely scum will kill someone from the east side making 3:2. Now I feel that it's better to vote from the smaller pool because there are less people and in my mind you are more likely to find the scum of the west side easier than the east side. Which would make it 5:3 now if we find scum we have 3 confirm town and of course scum will kill which will make the ratio yet again at 4:3 or at 5:2- that is if we find scum from the westside because eastside scum can kill a westside town which will probably help hide him. we could either have a 5 town (4:3) or 6 town(5:2) having 6 town would be good and will be helpful in order to find the last scum player. so trying to find scum in the smaller pool seems to be a good choice too. Even if we don't find scum on the first turn we have a higher chance of finding scum when it becomes 1 in 3 vs 1 in 4. In the end I honestly dont think it matters which side we lynch from as long as we find scum. I choose to try and find scum on the west side first because its a little more of a higher chance. If this game is all about math then I'm betting on the extra 5% chance I get in a 1 in 4 vs 1 in 5.

[Cobblerfone]

lewarcher82 has been prodded.

[RadiantCowbells]

I want to lynch in small pool because FJ is in small pool and they're a freebie read.

[All In]

Here's how this works: it's 5-4
We lynch the bigger group to make it 4-4
Scum kills to make it 4-3
Lynch to 3-3
Kill to 3-2
Worst case scenario at this point is a 50% chance to hit Scum and a 2-1 lylo situation

The soon er we hit Scum, the more conftown we have.
If we hit Scum on Day 1, we have 4 conftown and will have 3 conftown on Day 2 VS 4 non-conftown

This game is all about math.

Lynching in the smaller pool will always give us less conftown. How is this not obvious?

@allIn I dont think it matters in the end the ratios are the same. Say you lynch someone from the east side creating a 4:4 then scum kills making it 4:3 or 3:4. well in a good scum hunt you are trying to find the actual scum not keep eliminating players in order to find scum based on no reason. so that could make the ratio 4:2 or 2:4 that is if we as town are properly trying to find scum. Now if its 4:2 after the lynch then more than likely scum will kill someone from the east side making 3:2. Now I feel that it's better to vote from the smaller pool because there are less people and in my mind you are more likely to find the scum of the west side easier than the east side. Which would make it 5:3 now if we find scum we have 3 confirm town and of course scum will kill which will make the ratio yet again at 4:3 or at 5:2- that is if we find scum from the westside because eastside scum can kill a westside town which will probably help hide him. we could either have a 5 town (4:3) or 6 town(5:2) having 6 town would be good and will be helpful in order to find the last scum player. so trying to find scum in the smaller pool seems to be a good choice too. Even if we don't find scum on the first turn we have a higher chance of finding scum when it becomes 1 in 3 vs 1 in 4. In the end I honestly dont think it matters which side we lynch from as long as we find scum. I choose to try and find scum on the west side first because its a little more of a higher chance. If this game is all about math then I'm betting on the extra 5% chance I get in a 1 in 4 vs 1 in 5.

The point is that lynching scum on day 1 basically wins us the game.

[Frozen Jeanne]

But what if we don't lynch scum? What if we lynch town? What then, huh?!

[All In]

Here's how this works: it's 5-4
We lynch the bigger group to make it 4-4
Scum kills to make it 4-3
Lynch to 3-3
Kill to 3-2
Worst case scenario at this point is a 50% chance to hit Scum and a 2-1 lylo situation

The soon er we hit Scum, the more conftown we have.
If we hit Scum on Day 1, we have 4 conftown and will have 3 conftown on Day 2 VS 4 non-conftown

This game is all about math.

Lynching in the smaller pool will always give us less conftown. How is this not obvious?

^

[All In]

it comes down to this:

lynching in the small pool keeps the big pool at its maximum size and it will stay difficult to lynch out of that pool.

Lynching in the big pool now, gives us a bigger chance to hit scum on day 2(if we fail at hitting scum).

Scum wants to keep the pools as big as possible, to make choices harder.

I really can't explain it any better than this, but seriously, I should be getting support for this...

[RadiantCowbells]

You're ignoring the fact that it's way way easier for us to lynch correctly in the small pool.

[Kaboose]

It seems like we're not scumhunting, but trying to decide where to start killing.

[All In]

I give up. Let's just play this game.

[All In]

The most likely scenario is that we hit town regardless of which neighborhood we pick. So it will either be 4v4 or 5v3. If it's 4v4, we learn a lot from which neighborhood the scum decide to kill in. If it's 5v3, the scum kind of have to kill in the 5v3 neighborhood. This is guiding my decision most, All In.

Can you explain this to me?

[RadiantCowbells]

As much as I really don't want to die N1, I think All In is actually correct.

[ProHawk]

I could probably lynch the dude I'm voting now, Radiant, or Lewarcher at this point.