Micro 642: Auction Mafia TOWN WINS!

[Not Chara]

which would work wonders if mafia isn't able to seize either of those upgrades.
or if farside was actually confirmed town. she is not.

farside: i don't see mafia bidding on that miller when there's a cop on the table, it's true.

BNL: damn. we both picked the wrong conftown. nobody visited Charloux last night.

[Charloux]

Hey NC, We all have 100$ at the beginning, right? If you bought a watcher, you'd have 30$ left. But you said you have 21$. There was nothing sold for 9$. You lied.

[Not Chara]

i bought the watcher for 79, not 70.
and i don't have 21 either, i have zero. bought the doctor day 1.

[Charloux]

My mistake sorry!

[BNL]

I'd say Farside is conftown.

Yesterday You and McMenno were voting me. If Farside was scum, I'd expect Farside and Lane to have quickhammered me, which gives 2/3 chance of success as Farside could block one of PGO/BP, leaving only 1/3 chance of hitting those roles, and probably can guess people who aren't protected too (non-conf), and even failing that, they still have a decent chance of winning LyLo.

OK so Farside isn't conftown due to the protectives, but at least 99% chance town.

[BNL]

And the whole breaking strategy revolved around Farside and Charloux being conftown

[Not Chara]

hm. actually, that is true.
but they might have been playing cautiously. there was both a BP and a PGO up for grabs that night, remember? a hammer like that would have ended them if they screwed up during the night.

what i'm not sure i buy is the only wagons yesterday being on the scumteam.
i guess i could argue this tomorrow. if farside is scum, i'll know then. or they might frame BNL, not sure.
i know only town was voting BNL... gah, i'm not sure. BnL just hasn't seemed like scum recently with his analysis. like, if he really believes Farside is conftown, the breaking strategy would confirm him as scum. if farside

is

town, this game is already over for scum.

[farside22]

Sorry but it's broken.
Let's put it like this: I am a redirector and farside is a cop.
I transfer all your actions onto BnL. If he dies, you are scum and we have a cop to confirm it. If Farside dies, i will know that you aren't the one who killed her. If i die, farside will say if she got a gulty or not. That's it basically.

You got the gift from bnl?

If you buy the redirector you target who you think is scum and redirect them to your second scum suspect.
So for example you think nc is scum and bnl. You target one to go for the other. I cop one and that should clarify the final scum between the 2.

[Not Chara]

proposed plan:
farside buys the redirector (i don't believe she can be outbid at this point?), Charloux buys the cop.
BNL, even if scum, would not buy the miller, because i don't think he's that stupid.
farside redirects me onto BNL, Charloux cops me.
if BNL is scum, there isn't anything he can do to stop this, because he should have less luck bucks left. he could no-kill, but that wouldn't matter because Charloux is copping me. this would catch BNL scum (or me-scum, hypothetically), so there are no problems. you could flip BnL and i in this scenario and it would still work, of course. i would actually prefer to flip us now that i think about it.

if farside is scum, she has options. she could no kill, allowing Charloux to cop me and see i'm town, which would frame BnL. she could kill BnL, which she won't because Charloux would have copped me, and it would confirm her as scum. in fact, doing anything besides no-killing would confirm her as scum.
so, that plan doesn't work. at least, not for me. though in the end, i have no control over the final decision.

giving farside the cop and Charloux the redirector leads to similar problems if farside is scum.
farside, if you're town, please excuse my paranoia. :>
possible solution: we go with the first plan. Charloux flips a coin. if heads, he investigates me. if tails, he investigates farside. scum BnL can still no-kill in this situation, but has a 50-percent chance of losing anyway because i was copped. same with farside.

thoughts?

in the end, i think you'll end up going with the breaking strategy that assumes farside is town. i hope she is.

[Charloux]

I already bid on both the redirector and cop. But i can't help but feel that something is wrong since lucky brought out these roles that are so town-aligned. I hope it's just my paranoia.
I think we should be skipping the dayphase right about now?

[Not Chara]

i doubt Lucky picked the roles based on the gamestate. this is just what was planned.
you shouldn't have bid on both... that makes it possible for scum to steal one. i'm the only player without the luck bucks to do that.

[farside22]

I did my bid early too.
Maybe I'll be lucky and won't be outbid.

Charlo if you get the cop check nc.

I think we nlynch from here and hope for the best.

[Lucky2u]

Vote Count 4.1

Charloux -
BulletNLynchproof -
farside22 -
Not Chara -

No Lynch - Charloux

Not Voting - Not Chara farside22 BulletNLynchproof

With 4 alive it takes 3 to lynch!

[Not Chara]

VOTE: No Lynch
L-1 to no lynch. not much else to do here.

[farside22]

Vote: No lynch

Charloux if you get redirector instead please target nc to bnl.

I feel more sure that lane/nc

[Lucky2u]

NOONE was lynched Day 4.

The bidding is over, the results are...

Cop sold for - $23

Miller did not sell!

Redirector sold for - $48

PMs will go out shortly and then night will begin...

[Lucky2u]

Night has begun and ends in (expired on 2016-10-15 12:00:00)

[Lucky2u]

Charloux

has died Night 4!

Day 5 has begun and now announcing the items up for bid!

Strong-willed Visitor

- You may target a player at night. No matter what, you will visit that player and nothing is going to stop you! (You visit doesn't do anything)

Post Restriction Neutralizer

- So long as you are alive, no post restrictions* will be active (*there are no post restrictions in the game)

Self Neighboriser

- You may target yourself and only yourself at night. You will form a neighborhood with your target.

Firebringer's Car

- It's a 1967 Chevy Impala, in black.

Good luck players!

Vote Count FinalDay.0

BulletNLynchproof -
farside22 -
Not Chara -

Not Voting - Everyone!

Deadline in (expired on 2016-10-27 20:00:00)

[Not Chara]

farside? please confirm what role you took/your results, if you have them.

[farside22]

farside? please confirm what role you took/your results, if you have them.

I got the cop results.

Checked bnl. He is town.
The only concern I have about my results is the redirector ability.

[Not Chara]

BNL, you bought the BP for 52 and the redirector sold for 48. did you take it?

[farside22]

BNL, you bought the BP for 52 and the redirector sold for 48. did you take it?

Not sure what the point of this is. If he's scum he's going to lie.

I know you didn't have the money for it and I have to think of the odds of bnl picking me and directing me.

mod: can scum use an ability and kill on the same night?

[Not Chara]

farside, the point of the question is if BnL is town, i want a straight answer. i'm aware he can lie if scum.
i also asked Lucky a question. let's see how we're answered.

[Not Chara]

i also have a question for you. why did you check BnL and not myself? you asked Charloux to redirect me onto BnL if he got that ability, and to cop me if he got that instead.

[Not Chara]

you know i couldn't have redirected anything. a scum report on me, maybe you could have questioned, but there would have been nothing to worry about if you'd gotten a town result.
so why?