Micro 644: Flavorless Mafia - Game Over

[Aristophanes]

Hi everyone!

Ego post until I can read up.

[Aristophanes]

Holy shit this catchup is grueling. Grapes and MoI, I'm glad you learned to give each other space, but geez. I'm not sure if it's a TvT or Tvs yet, but I definitely have a good townread on Grapes from it. MoI I'm still trying to figure out.

[Aristophanes]

Holy shit this catchup is grueling.

You have to read a whopping 13 pages. That’s hardly a grueling task.

Are you scum trying to lurk this out Aristo?

Lol no.

All I'm saying is that you and Grapes are really wordy and boring to read, so it's taking a lot longer than it should and I keep getting distracted.

[Aristophanes]

I was thinking Shannon might be scum at the beginning, but I see BTD as far more likely. His pushes are bad and his Grapes/Shannon scumteam idea seems really farfetched and unnatural.

VOTE: MagnaofIllusion

I dig it, but care to explain?

[Aristophanes]

So, apparently most people aren't really posting much, eh?

Magna, there age a good many noted "lurkers" in the game. I see that you want to lynch one, but who among the lot would that be and why?
I know this is a hard thing to answer given the low content nature of these slots, but I'd appreciate it.

[Aristophanes]

My vote is on Grapes??
UNVOTE:

[Aristophanes]

uggh
I was going to replace out, but there is only about a day and a half left?

Ok will hold in there and really focus on this game tomorrow absolutely.

Have you compiled any thoughts at all, Rachael?

[Aristophanes]

feel good about ran and grapes being town shannon also,

other than that not a lot been so swamped tween v/la and coming down sick this last weekend uggh.

That's okay, hope you're feeling better now!

The input is appreciated! It all helps in the end!

[Aristophanes]

Regular weekend V/la.

I'll make sure I'm not totally absent though, especially with the deadline approaching!

[Aristophanes]

Also have another scum read that I will explain when back from V/LA if it pans out during the weekend.

Did this ever happen? I see the Grapes tunnel, but I don't see any other early cases in your ISO. Who was this going to be on, Magna, and is it still relevant?

[Aristophanes]

VOTE: Grapes

That makes L-2 on both Grapes and Magna

Shannon MoI scumteam? Maybe.

It'd be ballsy, but possible.

[Aristophanes]

Aristo, I'd like a stance or two from you. Where do you stand in terms of wagons?

In terms of wagons? Not in terms of reads? What odd word choice. Especially considering part of Grapes' arguments against MoI is thinking in terms of mislynches."

Grapes is a fairly strong townread though, and the two of you have made a solid MoI argument. I'll vote there before the end of day.

[Aristophanes]

Why not now?

I was out. Just walking home now. I'm gonna do some analysis before bed then probably disappear until after deadline, so I want to make an informed choice. However, Grapes remains a townread at this juncture, and I'm taking nite of the BTD wagon as a counterwagon to MoI should he flip scum.

[Aristophanes]

Right. I forgot until I started rereading MoI's Iso that I already did that. That's where I got the quote in 395 that he never answered.

And his 498 says an awful lot about his motivations this game. None of the lurkers seem likely to be scum to him, yet Rach and NM are good "fallback lynches" if he has to resort to then. It looks like he's not actually looking for a scum flip, just any flip. PLs suck man!

I'm going to read the shorter "lurker" Isos tn (so long as I can stay awake) as they are the slots I don't have solid reads on yet.

However,
VOTE: Magna

[Aristophanes]

Hmm...if this is a scum flip, BTD is assuredly town as the counterwagon attempt. If this is a town flip, he is very possibly scum. His iso is about 90% Grapes and Shannon commentary, and an awful lot of his justification is awkward and fake. Like he really has to push to make cases, so he's over thinking them and making them very robotic.

Also, his attempt to derail the MoI wagon is noted. Well, that is, his attempt to discredit Grapes and push that lynch ahead by saying how bad his vote was. This is part of a series of analyses on the MoI votes that started with Grapes and ended with...Grapes.

[Aristophanes]

Not_Mafia is actually a townlean at the moment. Shaddowez had solid posts when he could be around, and I haven't seen anything AI in NM himself. Based on predecessor play, he gets a townlean. That fake hammer was super lame though.

Whoa, ninja!

[Aristophanes]

Independent of an MoI flip or read, what is your read on BTD?

Independently, scumlean.

The reason there is dependence in the picture is the counterwagon nature of his current wagon. If MoI flips scum, which I believe there is a good chance of, BTD scum just doesn't seem viable.

It's all preflip though, which is shitty and unreliable. I'm merely mentioning it for post-flip consideration.

[Aristophanes]

Ari in what world am

I

not the counterwagon to Magna?

It looks like your wagon is rickety and unlikely to gain full traction. Therefore BTD is set up as another possibility to draw people away from MoI.

[Aristophanes]

In other terms, you two are dueling wagons.
BTD is a counterwagon.

[Aristophanes]

The reason there is dependence in the picture is the counterwagon nature of his current wagon. If MoI flips scum, which I believe there is a good chance of, BTD scum just doesn't seem viable.

I still don't get it. Also if I'm interpreting what I think you're trying to say, does the same logic apply to Grapes?

Indeed, however I already think Grapes is town. via his play. BTD is scum or extremely tunneled town, and the counterwagon (as opposed to the dueling wagon)not MoI. That's the difference.

[Aristophanes]

PEdit is the wrong thing but you get what I mean: Got half way through this and people have shown up

That would be ninja posts. Because they Ninja'd in before you could post yours

Nope, sorry, don't agree. I think Magna is town and if he flips scum, that won't change my view on BTD. Focus on that second part of your point, the bit I've bolded. Is that not worth a vote on its own?

I already stated that it is. But this wagon timing is creeping me out man!

[Aristophanes]

Shannon's 534 I really like!

Also, this is my time used up now. Off to work!

[Aristophanes]

Well that was unexpected!

[Aristophanes]

Yeah, I'm going to stick with my thoughts yesterday.
VOTE: BTD

The case against him is solid.

I really don't get the grapes kill. I'll have to look into possible motivations for that.

[Aristophanes]

MoI's last reads certainly must be considered (especially since we know he is Town) but we should not assume he is always right. It is certainly possible that Shannon is scum. However, we know he is guaranteed not to be lying so his reads are slightly more accurate than any of ours on average. Aristo is a weak scumread so for now:

VOTE: Aristophanes

This logic is actually rather fallacious. His reads are now confirmed to be genuine. That doesn't make them any more correct though. Dead town can be just as wrong as living town. I know you somewhat address this, but you still make the claim that his reads have a higher chance of being correct than ours do, which is wrong.

Also, you aren't considering Grapes' reads for some reason, despite him being the NK and confirmed town. Why is that?

[Aristophanes]

Where's the case on me?

[BTD's] iso is about 90% Grapes and Shannon commentary, and an awful lot of his justification is awkward and fake. Like he really has to push to make cases, so he's over thinking them and making them very robotic.

Also, his attempt to derail the MoI wagon is noted. Well, that is, his attempt to discredit Grapes and push that lynch ahead by saying how bad his vote was. This is part of a series of analyses on the MoI votes that started with Grapes and ended with...Grapes.

[Aristophanes]

I've been busy, but I hadn't realized I hadn't posted. Sorry all!

[Aristophanes]

Shannon, let me get back to you on NM. I want to reread him.

His play mostly struck me as town on a gut/meta level, but I want to go more into it.

[Aristophanes]

Everyone on BTD - Please explain why I was so crazy to try to lynch him yesterday, yet here you all are?

I'd also love to see a justification of the cross-voting that's going on, it is anything more than OMGUS?

I made the case yesterday. But I thought for sure MoI was scum and there was no chance the two could be scum together. I had a lot more faith in my MoI read, therefore that was the scumread I pursued. That has turned out to be wrong, which validated my BTD suspicions.

How do you feel about his assertion that I am scum? I feel like his reasoning is weak. Grapes was pretty obviously a VT, based in the way he played the game. I was on his radar so little I don't remember him mentioning a scumread on me. He was a strong townread of mine. If u were scum, that is the kind of player I'd never get rid of!
In fact, with the oddity of the kill (he was a very possible mislynch if left alive today), I would argue we probably have a scumteam of newer players.

[Aristophanes]

Shannon, let me get back to you on NM. I want to reread him.

His play mostly struck me as town on a gut/meta level, but I want to go more into it.

How convenient

Because I want to check things out and haven't had the time? Right. Totally convenient.

[Aristophanes]

Standard weekend V/la is now in effect.

The only difference is that I probably won't post at all until Tuesday now, so I'm officializing it!

[Aristophanes]

Geez, I get back from a busy busy weekend to being at L-1?

Gimme a bit and I'll see what's up.

Have I missed ant questions?

[Aristophanes]

Rach, how on earth dies a scumread on NM make me scum??

This is clear posturing.

VOTE: Rach

[Aristophanes]

Rach, how on earth does a scumread on NM make me scum??

This is clear posturing.

VOTE: Rach

Rach was asked to give a case on NM and said nothing about you. Also,

L-1

.

I guess I'm hallucinating that vote then?

It may have been indirect, but she got to the point eventually. NM case was a front for an Ari case.

[Aristophanes]

I don't really know what to say right now! I could have sworn I'd posted. Anyone have questions for me I guess?

[Aristophanes]

Shannon is town. Is this actually in question?

NM is a little hazier, but I don't see a Rach/NM Scumteam as some have proposed, so he gets some points there. I'll have to look back into him tomorrow.

[Aristophanes]

I thought you'd never ask!
VOTE: BTD

[Aristophanes]

I

still

don't get the Grapes kill.

[Aristophanes]

PS - Aristo, I doctored you N1 and I doctored BTD N2. Luckily BTD knew what was up with Tenshii (and luckily I got it together D2 and resisted the NM wagon) or it would have been very different for town.

Aw thanks!
This is why I wanted to keep you around. You were reading me exactly as I had hoped the Doc would!

If I'd lived through D2 and not been lynched I think we could have pulled it off! The switch deviated us!

[Aristophanes]

I honestly totally forgot I wanted to kill you!

Oh well!