Mini Normal 1857 (Game Over - Mafia Wins!)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

PAGE 100 PAGETOP
I think VCA clears Sesq and implicates Drone. Rask seems unlikely to be scum at this point but she's been tunneling shannon. Maybe he thinks he's convinced he's caught scum in her but I'm not sure. If Titus and Drone are truly neighbors they're likely to both be town, no 2 player hoods in archives contain 1 scum and 1 town. If we don't lynch one today and we do lynch town today one should be lynched tomorrow to confirm the other for LyLo. I know I'm lining lynches but I'm pretty sure I'm the NK tonight and I'm not holding out hope for a doc.

Will post some other thoughts in a bit, cooking soon

[JaeReed]

VC 3.10

shadonra (4)

: Titus, Drone, gerryoat, TTTT

-- L-1!

shannon (2)

: Raskolnikov, shadonra

Drone (1)

: ssbm_Kyouko

Titus (1)

: shannon

gerryoat (1)

: Sesq

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2017-01-03 16:47:00)

gerryoat is V/LA til the 7th.

[shannon]

There's a reason I didn't actually vote, let's put it that way. I wanted to see whether my expressed intention to vote would derail the wagon, given that lots of folks have a scum read on me.

Okay, so did it? What's your analysis here?

I am starting with this question because it's a relatively simple one, and because I don't think I'm going to get to all of them, frankly.

The reason I haven't said anything is because the wagon hasn't gone away. I was hoping to see some more voting action. So far, TTTT unvoted Impoetic, Gerry put her back at L-1. SSBM unvoted, then later TTTT put her back at L-1.

Through this, Titus and Drone have both remained on Impoetic.

Like lots of other players, I've been focused on Titus and Drone and trying to sort them out. I'm not sure whether this is even possible, TBH.

I've got two theories in mind at the moment, both of which are potentially ridiculous. So I'll start with reads: SSBM, Impoetic, and you, I think are all town. I'm not sure about Sesq, TTTT, and Gerry, I guess I'm neutral on them. Slightly towny feel about TTTT because of the interaction with NewImpoetic. I think one of Titus and Drone is scum.

So, the theory part:

If one of Titus and Drone is scum, I suspect that the strategy will be for the scum one to subtly sheep the other, so that we can't get a clear read on the pair of them and by the time we've lynched it'll be too late. I don't know what, if anything, to do about this.

The particularly crazy part -

*If* - and I think it's a big if - Titus and Drone are both shown to be town, then I think the team is SSBM + Someone who has been relatively under the radar. I think SSBM has been directing traffic, so to speak, toward a few candidates all game. Her focus has been on sorting Titus and Drone, sorting me and LUV, and on Impoetic. And while I see this as towny overall, if both Titus and Drone are town, and given a town read on Impoetic, I left with SSBM by POE. (To be clear - I don't think that any combo of just Gerry/TTTT/Sesq makes sense as a scum team).

[TTTT]

^town post

[shadonra]

I think it'd be fairly insane from a setup perspective if only one of Titus/Drone were scum. I think there's two ways that can go, assuming that they've been neighbors from game start:
1) Both town (more likely, IMO)
2) Both scum (I don't see any reason to make this gambit, and neither of them seems like the kind of person to go for it)

I think the only way that exactly one of them is scum is that Drone is a mafia neighborizer. This is why I asked him about his day1 chat.

[Raskolnikov]

If there's scum in titus/drone it's drone. Titus would've been CC'd if her claim was fake.

Drone was in favour of shannon wagon right up until it happened and then turned to calling it a terrible wagon and throwing shade on everyone on it. That was my guess going into today though realistically there's too many lurker/nullslots that could be with anyone to do any association work. But even individually it's strange.

Shannon's weirding me out TBH, her answers aren't satisfying on a factual level but there's something about the tone?

[Drone]

Fluffy and I did speak, more than Titus and I.

Sorry i'm a little demotivated, going through a bit.

@mod V/LA till sunday.
Apology.

[Raskolnikov]

Mmm. There's still all the issues on her d2 progression though. Even if today's been okay that initial titus push doesn't fit the explanation.

[Raskolnikov]

@Drone
What do you think of shadonra?

[Raskolnikov]

I wanna re-evaluate a bit but it's too close to deadline.

Gerryoat and drone V/LA is annoying.

[Raskolnikov]

The thing about me, I've noticed, is that I have two modes: Super Obv Town (which is always super faked, even if I am actually town), and Genuinely Being Me (which is almost always scum read, even if I'm town). I'm actively trying to tone down the Super Obv Town because it's hard to maintain, but this 'normal' me gets me scum read, so I might have to change that!

I hope that this has been an adequate response?

What it boils down to is even though you're here and posting a lot I just don't see much independent drive from you. Like you have "unique" opinions but I feel like you push it so little it's hard to believe you aren't just going with the flow. You say it's indecision and uncertainty but I don't really see you trying to clarify it either? I feel like you exert so little influence onto the game if that makes sense, like about the same as the straight-up lurkers but while being here and posting...

[Raskolnikov]

@Titus just wondering, why did you gunsmith impo over shannon?

[gerryoat]

The person voting me is most likely town and that makes me sad.

[shadonra]

The person voting me is most likely town and that makes me sad.

why are you voting me

[TTTT]

If there's scum in titus/drone it's drone. Titus would've been CC'd if her claim was fake.

plz explain this.
it's a Normal game, so why would we expect a counterclaim to universal backup neighbor?

[shannon]

The thing about me, I've noticed, is that I have two modes: Super Obv Town (which is always super faked, even if I am actually town), and Genuinely Being Me (which is almost always scum read, even if I'm town). I'm actively trying to tone down the Super Obv Town because it's hard to maintain, but this 'normal' me gets me scum read, so I might have to change that!

I hope that this has been an adequate response?

What it boils down to is even though you're here and posting a lot I just don't see much independent drive from you. Like you have "unique" opinions but I feel like you push it so little it's hard to believe you aren't just going with the flow. You say it's indecision and uncertainty but I don't really see you trying to clarify it either? I feel like you exert so little influence onto the game if that makes sense, like about the same as the straight-up lurkers but while being here and posting...

If I push things little it's because I'm not committed to a single course of action, I'm still trying to work things out. There's also the case that I *can't* push things effectively because of the scum read that's been on me so long. (Like if I'd really tried to push to save LUV, how would that have looked in the circumstance?). I will take your feedback on board.

[shannon]

Alright, if everyone insists that Titus and Drone must both be town because of setup reasons, then here's my cray POE:

VOTE: SSBM

I'm going to take today to re-read the game with Scum SSBM in mind and I'll be back with evidence tonight.

If I don't find that evidence, well, I'll unvote, and go with the majority I guess.

[Raskolnikov]

If there's scum in titus/drone it's drone. Titus would've been CC'd if her claim was fake.

plz explain this.
it's a Normal game, so why would we expect a counterclaim to universal backup neighbor?

So overall I'm not sure that JOAT + 2-s follower is enough investigation tools.
1 jailkeep, 1 gunsmith and 2 follows altogether is maybe 1 cop's worth of investigation power.

UB isn't really invest but I'd still count it towards that from the longer lifespan it'd give either.

It's complicated but I'd count UB partially towards invest power and there wouldn't be much without it. Follower's pretty weak, JK is just okay and even 1s gunsmith isn't quite cop.
Also considering transcend dying despite having a BP means roleblocker or strongman.

Titus is titus but fluffyrabbit looked pretty town too.

[Raskolnikov]

If I push things little it's because I'm not committed to a single course of action, I'm still trying to work things out. There's also the case that I *can't* push things effectively because of the scum read that's been on me so long. (Like if I'd really tried to push to save LUV, how would that have looked in the circumstance?). I will take your feedback on board.

zzzzzzzz

Idk if shannon's hardcore appeasing me or not here... I hate it when people act nice to me when I push them.

[Raskolnikov]

Need everyone on the impoetic/shadonra wagon's comment on shadonra, only TTTT's really said anything there. Gerryoat popped in but didn't mention it.

Really have to start closing the day out now. I still think shannon's probably the best lynch here, if not her then maybe drone, but it's annoying this has taken too long and I've started second guessing... I'm not 100% either shadonra's town (more like 70?) but there's the chance it's like another LUV lynch where it tells us literally nothing because of how uninvolved impoetic was.

[shadonra]

the wagon on me is shameful tbh. still no one has answered why they're on it.

[shannon]

If I push things little it's because I'm not committed to a single course of action, I'm still trying to work things out. There's also the case that I *can't* push things effectively because of the scum read that's been on me so long. (Like if I'd really tried to push to save LUV, how would that have looked in the circumstance?). I will take your feedback on board.

zzzzzzzz

Idk if shannon's hardcore appeasing me or not here... I hate it when people act nice to me when I push them.

Sorry, I didn't mean to annoy you x

[shannon]

Need everyone on the impoetic/shadonra wagon's comment on shadonra, only TTTT's really said anything there. Gerryoat popped in but didn't mention it.

Really have to start closing the day out now. I still think shannon's probably the best lynch here, if not her then maybe drone, but it's annoying this has taken too long and I've started second guessing... I'm not 100% either shadonra's town (more like 70?) but there's the chance it's like another LUV lynch where it tells us literally nothing because of how uninvolved impoetic was.

The LUV lynch *did* tell us stuff, though.

It told you all that his result on me was accurate, that I didn't do the N1 kill.
It also told you that the main reason for wanting to lynch him, i.e. that his claim didn't jibe well with Titus', was BS.

If Titus is town (via the 'neighbours are always town in this setup' generalisation) ((This is where I suspend my disbelief)), that makes Drone town also. Yay, we've got two conf townies!

If Titus is town then she really did get 'no result' on Impoettic. I think that if Titus is willing to suspend *her* disbelief about my alignment and not jump to far-fetched conclusions about me and Impoetic having weird role combos, we end up with something plausible. Titus, Drone, Impoetic/Shad, and me are all town. (I want to add you to this too, Rask).

The PR has been roleblocked both N1 and N2. For whatever reason, Titus was left alive in favour of D7. Let's put this down to WIFOM. So, scum is within SSBM, TTTT, Gerry, and Sesq. My *guess* as to why D7 was killed is that it allowed SSBM to make small talk about mourning her town block and having to try to recruit some of us to the new one. I'll have to read back to see whether I remember that right.

PS - If you lynch me all you'll know is that LUV's result on me was true, which you already know. We won't be any closer to narrowing down the scum pool. If you lynch Drone, well, maybe we strike it lucky and get the only neighbours (apparently ever?) to have one scum and one town. But more likely, we don't learn anything, and we still don't know squat about Titus. I think we need to look elsewhere.

[shannon]

Nuh OK I'm re-reading and I just can't see SSBM as scum. It's gotta be Titus. I think this is the one game in apparently ever that has a neighbourhood that's 50/50.

Question - If Titus is scum, does this make sense of N1? Would a 1 shot scum roleblocker (or I guess a 2 shot but they didn't use their shot last night on the right person), plus JOAT (no backup) and 2 Shot Follower be balanced-ish?

Here's the quotes that got me thinking...

Well there goes my other townread. Only one nightkill again I'm starting to wonder if we even have a vig. Titus what did you do last night and who did you target?

(I tried to scumread this post above but I couldn't. This exchange just really cemented it for me).

Gs no result, did not say which action

I am inclined to think my target is ascetic

I got no result on my gs check. I am treating this as a guilty on the target. Result at midday.

Also how can no result be treated as a guilty? Just curious what the logic is even if it's moonlogic

That seems like an odd conclusion for what's confirmed in this setup

Do you have any reason to believe your target is ascetic rather than you got roleblocked?

That seems like an odd conclusion for what's confirmed in this setup

Limited shot investigatives, plus scum strongman (which is the theory we went with yesterday), suggests no RB.

What about scum JOAT with 1xRB 1xNinja and 1xStrongman to balance town JOAT?

What about scum JOAT with 1xRB 1xNinja and 1xStrongman to balance town JOAT?

Possible.

Like I think there's no way they're both town. It's possible they're really neighbors but I can't see them both being town. They're also the only players to simultaneously vote me the whole game if I'm not mistaken which makes me think the neighborhood might be real but that maybe they're not both scum and it's only one of them. A game just finished that I caught scum!Drone in (my first Newbie, lasted like 6 weeks ) so I can finally talk about it but I'd need to read him closer and see what I think of him there compared to now. Raskol was in that game too but she got killed N1 for being obvtown

All the bold stuff here still stands:

Ssm, please hand over your dunce cap. Shannon is scum with the target of my check.

Soooo let me get this straight:

You scum read me, and think LUV was faking a result on me. He flips town which verifies his result, but you *don't* check me for a gun, you check someone else. You get no result on them, but then claim that I'm scum *with* that person?

Oh so I'm Ascetic and shannon is the 3rd scum.

So the plan was to wait for someone to bite when you didn't give out the name, later conveniently say that you targeted that player, then claim shannon is the 3rd scum

.

And you also think that from a balance standpoint that it makes sense to have an Ascetic scum in the same game as a Follower? What is the point of the Follower in such a setup?

Now you're saying that an Ascetic did the kill which means it's probably not a strongman unless you also thing a strongman ascetic would be balanced, so you think it's a roleblocker I assume? This is rich.

VOTE: Titus

[TTTT]

Shannon is a mislynch.
Titus is scum with either Shad or Rask.
I'll move back to Shad if need be, but this feels better.
VOTE: Titus