Mafiascum.net

Probably random lynch.

Though, I doubt today we can exploit the game as someone already voted.

In post 924, Ümläüt wrote:

@Mod

What happens if no one votes?

One more question, who do we think scum would most want to veto? If it's someone living, we should lynch them.

Actually, probably it was Vedith.

Who PsychoticDave played with?

Also, it's technically hard to know if we don't know the second scum, they might've changed Dave's mind.

I've never played with Dave. Anyway, I think if we're really approaching that question better to just look at who has the most experience and/or best reputation as town.

Vedith seems to have a strong reputation (no comment on whether it's earned), and shaddowez has the earliest join date by more than a year.

Since I'm in the shaddowez slot now, I seem to be inadvertently arguing for lynching myself. I think it's pretty clear I'm town given how I worked to revitalize the dead Dave wagon on d2, but if we're aiming for the Chosen win I honestly see no reason to think I'm chosen.

What do you think about how your slot was going to be lynched D1 if it weren't for the deadline extension?

You know, I didn't think about it much since lurking as hard as shaddow did is a pretty understandable reason to be wagoned. (Not saying it's a great reason on day 1—better to let replacement bait be replaced—but it certainly happens enough.) But the fact that Dave was on the wagon is at least some positive evidence I'm chosen.

We really haven't done much analysis of Dave yet, actually. Here's his complete vote log.

• 7:
  Vedith
  , L-3
  
• 30: Creature, L-4
  
• 83:
  Vedith
  , L-3
  
• 359:
  nn30
  , L-2
  
• 438: shaddowez, L-1
  
• 479:
  nn30
  , L-1

• 625: Human Sequencer, L-2
  
• 822:
  Psychotic Dave
  , L

I think being voted to L-1 by Dave is reasonably strong evidence that I'm town, but pretty weak evidence that I'm chosen. nn30 wasn't chosen, after all, and Dave sandwiched his vote for me between votes for him. I suspect he really did just want to lynch any townie and end the day at that point.

Dave's vote for Creature, on the other hand, is fairly strong evidence of his being chosen. I just don't see any other compelling reason to try and start a wagon from scratch on a player as easy to townread as Creature, when you already have a great mislynch candidate in Vedith. His vote on Human is also evidence that Human is chosen, though not quite as strong since he didn't start that wagon himself.

The living slots Dave voted are Tenshii and TTTT. I think we should flip both of these. I want to start with Tenshii, but I'm not so picky about that.

Good, maybe we should also create hypothetical scenarios of each of us being scum and who we voted.

That seems like a lot of work for one person (getting the L-minus counts in particular can be kind of a pain), and should be distributed among the players. Probably everyone doing their own is not the best plan. Who should analyze whom?

A few nothing-up-my-sleeve options:

1. Rota in alphabetical order. Creature → Human Sequencer → Tenshi → TTTT → Ümläüt → Creature
   
2. Rota in signup order. Human Sequencer → Ümläüt → Tenshii → Creature → TTTT → Human Sequencer
   
3. Popcorn, starting with Creature.

Sorta like each person check the other's vote progressions?

Yes, that's what I mean.

Okay, hmm, it's just a vote progression anyway.

I'll do Human's as I have more time.

14: Human Sequencer, L-2
22: , L-2
35: Creature, L-3
55: , L-2
476: , L-2
495: Unvote
518: , L-2


627: , L-3


893: , L

:
896: TTTT, L-2

Human were scum (I don't think they are, but that's the point of this exercise), that progression obviously suggests Creature and TTTT are chosen.

Before Dave's lynch scum though it would be better to keep killing to take their numbers fast. After Dave's lynch the last scum though it would be better to let town lynch one of the Chosen then start killing again.

hmmm

Eh, on second thought these vote progressions are pretty objective so it's not really that important to distribute the work evenly or anything. I'll do MisaTange/TTTT because he has a slightly lower post count and I'm lazy.

• 4:
  nn30
  (L-4)
  
• 106: Creature (L-3)
  
• 257:
  nn30
  (L-3)
  
• 382: shaddowez (L-2)
  
• 475:
  nn30
  (L-3)

• 639:
  Hiraki
  (L-1)
  
• 699:
  Psychotic Dave
  (L-2)
  
• 733: unvote

• 892:
  Hiraki
  (L-1)

Never voted: Human Sequencer, Tenshii, .

If TTTT is taken for scum, this would suggest Creature and I are chosen, more so Creature than I.

----

On a reread, I dislike TTTT's flip-flip on Dave during Day 2. He voted for Dave after the slip, but then changed his mind and said that 'slip' was more likely to come from bad town. This was some time after when the Dave wagon had already stalled.

Tenshii vote progression

• 53:
  Vedith
  (L-2)
  
• 111: MisaTange (L-4)
  
• 255: TTTT (L-3; note TTTT = MisaTange)
  
• 380: shaddowez (L-3)

• 618: Human Sequencer (L-3)
  
• 633:
  Hiraki
  (L-3)

• 891:
  Hiraki
  (L-2)

Never voted: , Creature, .

If Tenshii is taken for scum, this would suggest the chosen are among TTTT, Human Sequencer, and myself.

Conversely, if we believe Creature is chosen, this suggests Tenshii is town. However, given that Creature has been pretty obvtown, this might just mean scum!Tenshii had the sense not to try and lead a lynch on a widely townread player.

UNVOTE: Tenshii

Leaning more toward a TTTT lynch, but I don't want the day to end yet. The meta lately seems to allow quickhammering and I don't want to risk it.

Creature vote progression

• 18: Human Sequencer (L-1)
  
• 26: unvote
  
• 66:
  nn30
  (L-2)
  
• 379: shaddowez (L-4)
  
• 455: unvote
  
• 474:
  nn30
  (L-4)

• 634:
  Hiraki
  (L-2)
  
• 651: unvote
  
• 860:
  PsychoticDave
  (L-1)

• 890:
  Hiraki
  (L-3)

Never voted: Tenshii, , TTTT

If Creature is taken for scum, this would suggest I am chosen. Possibly Human as well, though there is no strong evidence for this.

(Again, this is purely hypothetical and for completeness; Creature remains my top townread.)

----

Someone else should do me.

91: (L-4)
158: (L-4)
449: Tenshii (L-4)


796: Tenshii (L-2)
834: (L-2)


907: Tenshii (L-2)
947: Unvote