And now I'm polling first again despite having the least delegates... This primary is weird.
Posted: Mon Feb 20, 2017 4:58 am
by Kublai Khan
I forget how elections work. Since I won Wyoming and Minnesota, can I use my cavalry and ski forces to pincer attack the Dakotas and add them to my totals?
Posted: Mon Feb 20, 2017 6:04 pm
by AniX
>Implying I won't emerge from a contested convention the campaign.
Casuals.
Posted: Mon Feb 20, 2017 6:37 pm
by Majiffy
How the fuck am I still polling so gd low nationally
0 days until Maine (D)
2 days until Super Tuesday II
248 days until the Presidential Election
Headlines
The papers are released each day in the morning, and describe what happened the previous day. The first day of the cycle is a Wednesday, and the last a Tuesday, but the first newspapers are Thursday's, and the last Wednesday's.
Monday's papers:
how cool for
Negarir
and
Spire
to win things!
Serduchka
is facing down a minor
scandal
, while everyone's favourite crazed governor,
Gov. Paul LePage
, endorses
Khan
. And also
Sen. Bill Cassidy
is #WithHim (
Abbott
)
In Review
The news cycle strength is how good or bad your media was for the week, if you had any media at all, and if the cycle was a week long. The ads just tell you who's producing what, and what's being targeted in each. Scandals are self-explanatory. The full picture has basically everything that happened, but unformatted, so you can cry while you read it.
Spoiler: Ads
Tilden-St. Leonard
> completed ad > United States >
Tilden-St. Leonard
/Integrity.
Negarir
> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/Role of Government.
Negarir
> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/Leadership.
Defender
> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/Role of Government.
Abbott
> completed ad > United States >
Abbott
/Role of Government.
Khan
> completed ad > United States >
Khan
/Health Care.
Serduchka
> completed ad > United States >
Peanuts
/Leadership.
Reckoner
> completed ad > United States >
Spire
/War on Terror.
Peanuts
> completed ad > United States >
Peanuts
/Leadership.
McGriddles
> completed ad > United States >
Spire
/Role of Government.
McGriddles
> completed ad > United States >
Peanuts
/Leadership.
Spoiler: Scandals
Scandal on Serduchka!
Spoiler: The rest
Negarir wins in Kansas!
Negarir wins in Kentucky!
Negarir wins in Louisiana!
Abbott wins in Maine!
Spire wins in Kansas!
Spire wins in Louisiana!
Spire wins in Nebraska!
Democratic Maine Caucuses today!
Republican Puerto Rico Primary today!
Republican Hawaii Caucuses in 2 days!
Republican Idaho Primary in 2 days!
Republican Michigan Primary in 2 days!
Democratic Democrats Abroad Caucuses in 2 days!
Democratic Michigan Primary in 2 days!
Republican Mississippi Primary in 2 days!
Democratic Mississippi Primary in 2 days!
Republican U.S. Virgin Islands Caucuses in 4 days!
Republican Washington, D.C. Primary in 6 days!
Democratic Northern Mariana Islands Caucuses in 6 days!
Republican Guam Caucuses in 6 days!
Democratic American Samoa Caucuses in 7 days!
Democratic North Carolina Primary in 9 days!
Republican Missouri Primary in 9 days!
Democratic Ohio Primary in 9 days!
Republican North Carolina Primary in 9 days!
Republican Northern Mariana Islands Caucuses in 9 days!
Democratic Florida Primary in 9 days!
Democratic Illinois Primary in 9 days!
Republican Ohio Primary in 9 days!
Republican Florida Primary in 9 days!
Republican Illinois Primary in 9 days!
Democratic Missouri Primary in 9 days!
REP primaries debate in 4 days.
DEM primaries debate tonight!
DEM primaries debate in 3 days.
Khan endorsed by Gov. Paul LePage > Environment!
Gov. Paul LePage is now a potential Surrogate for Khan!
Abbott endorsed by Sen. Bill Cassidy > Issue Familiarity!
Sen. Bill Cassidy is now a potential Surrogate for Abbott!
MAPS
Ignore McMullin. Leaders of each state are colour-coded; white states means it's too close to call. The percentage list on the right-hand side is the popular vote; the lines and segments down the bottom are PROJECTED delegates. Earned delegates are located in posts #1 and #2.
i forgot them whoops
Next time, on this thing!:
maine but like, democratic lol
Posted: Wed Feb 22, 2017 2:05 am
by Drench
v glad u all enjoyed my super tuesday shitposting btw
Posted: Wed Feb 22, 2017 2:26 am
by Drench
PUERTO RICO (
R
) AND MAINE (
D
)
i? hate state parties for splitting shit up like this
puerto rico has 23 delegates and
20%
, maine is 30 and
15%
, whoo, let's do the former first
Spoiler: The Puerto Rico Republican Primary; Sunday, 6th March, 2016
The final results have been certified.
In fifth place, with 5,633 votes and 14.6% of the vote,
Khan
. He fails to make the delegate threshold, and overperforms final polling by 0.9%.
In fourth place, with 6,802 votes and 17.6% of the vote,
Defender
. He fails to make the delegate threshold, and overperforms final polling by 4.6%.
In third place, with 7,645 votes and 19.8% of the vote...
...
TSL
. She fails to make the delegate threshold, and overperforms final polling by 1.1%.
The winner of the Puerto Rico Republican primary...
With 9,752 votes, and 25.2% of the vote...
Tony Abbott
12 delegates won
+6.7% from polling
In second place, with 8,867 votes, and 22.9% of the vote, was
Negarir
. He claims eleven delegates, and underperforms final polling by 0.7%.
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Abbott
25.2%
9,752
12 dels
+6.7%
Negarir
22.9%
8,867
11 dels
-0.7%
TSL
19.8%
7,645
0 dels
+1.1%
Defender
17.6%
6,802
0 dels
+4.6%
Khan
14.6%
5,633
0 dels
+0.9%
Total
38,699
23 dels
does anyone even live in maine
Spoiler: The Maine Democratic Caucus; Sunday, 6th March, 2016
The final results have been certified.
In fifth place, with 415 votes and 12.0% of the vote,
McGriddles
. He fails to make the delegate threshold, and overperforms final polling by 0.2%.
In fourth place, with 491 votes and 14.2% of the vote,
Reckoner
. He fails to make the delegate threshold, and underperforms final polling by 2.8%.
In third place, with 704 votes and 20.3% of the vote...
...
Peanuts
. He claims eight delegates, and overperforms final polling by 2.9%.
The winner of the Maine Democratic caucus...
With 1,035 votes, and 29.8% of the vote...
Verka Serduchka
12 delegates won
+0.9% from polling
In second place, with 824 votes and 23.8% of the vote,
Spire
. He claims ten delegates, and overperforms final polling by 0.7%.
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
29.8%
1,035
12 dels
+0.9%
Spire
23.8%
824
10 dels
+0.7%
Peanuts
20.3%
704
8 dels
+2.9%
Reckoner
14.2%
491
0 dels
-2.8%
McGriddles
12.0%
415
0 dels
+0.2%
Total
3,469
30 dels
yeah that was fun
Spoiler: Progressive Results
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
Abbott
40.1%
4,230,013
479 dels
Negarir
17.0%
1,796,338
171 dels
Khan
13.2%
1,389,345
127 dels
Defender
15.4%
1,625,703
113 dels
TSL
11.9%
1,255,983
77 dels
Mothma
2.3%
242,511
5 dels
Dels left
1,500 dels
Total
10,539,893
2,472 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
Serduchka
34.0%
2,446,893
590 dels
McGriddles
22.6%
1,627,063
313 dels
Reckoner
17.2%
1,233,786
150 dels
Peanuts
15.0%
1,079,176
148 dels
Spire
11.2%
805,539
142 dels
Dels left
3,422 dels
Total
7,192,457
4,765 dels
Posted: Wed Feb 22, 2017 2:42 am
by Drench
March 7th
1 day until Super Tuesday II
247 days until the Presidential Election
The papers are released each day in the morning, and describe what happened the previous day. The first day of the cycle is a Wednesday, and the last a Tuesday, but the first newspapers are Thursday's, and the last Wednesday's.
Monday's headlines:
You won't believe this but Super Tuesday still dominates the news, with Super Saturday a little below it. But also, we've got news of
Spire
in the Debate,
Abbott
in Puerto Rico, and
Serduchka
in Maine.
McGriddles
needs to tone down the negativity, mate, and
Spire
collects
Gov. Jon Bel Edwards
#CantQuellTheBel.
Defender
is in Hawaii, definitely for work definitely not for the surf , and
Reckoner
's attack ad is a bit shit.
Tuesday:
Blah blah guess who won states etc. But also:
Reckoner
tries to do role-of-governmenty speech things and he's just so bad at speaking. God. He's terrible. Anyway also,
Negarir
has all the answers about terrorism on Meet the Press, while also running into a minor
scandal
.
TSL
keeps attacking people and for once it backfires, while
Reckoner
plays nice with Greta Van Susteren. And
Abbott
wins the affections (and rose) of
Sen. David Vitter
.
In Review
The news cycle strength is how good or bad your media was for the week, if you had any media at all, and if the cycle was a week long. The ads just tell you who's producing what, and what's being targeted in each. Scandals are self-explanatory. The full picture has basically everything that happened, but unformatted, so you can cry while you read it.
Spoiler: Ads
Tilden-St. Leonard
> completed ad > United States >
Tilden-St. Leonard
/Integrity.
Negarir
> completed ad > United States >
Defender
/War on Terror.
Defender
> completed ad > United States >
Defender
/Role of Government.
Abbott
> completed ad > United States >
Abbott
/Government Spending.
Khan
> completed ad > United States >
Abbott
/Government Spending.
Serduchka
> completed ad > United States >
Peanuts
/Leadership.
Reckoner
> completed ad > United States >
Reckoner
/Role of Government.
Spire
> completed ad > United States >
Peanuts
/Leadership.
Peanuts
> completed ad > United States >
Spire
/Role of Government.
McGriddles
> completed ad > United States >
Spire
/Role of Government.
Negarir
> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/Role of Government.
Abbott
> completed ad > United States >
Abbott
/War on Terror.
Reckoner
> completed ad > United States >
Reckoner
/Role of Government.
Spire
> completed ad > United States >
Spire
/War on Terror.
Spire
> completed ad > United States >
Serduchka
/Leadership.
Peanuts
> completed ad > United States >
Peanuts
/Leadership.
Spoiler: Scandals
Scandal on Negarir!
Spoiler: The rest
Abbott wins in Puerto Rico!
Serduchka wins in Maine!
Republican Hawaii Caucuses today!
Democratic Michigan Primary today!
Republican Idaho Primary today!
Democratic Mississippi Primary today!
Democratic Democrats Abroad Caucuses today!
Republican Michigan Primary today!
Republican Mississippi Primary today!
Republican U.S. Virgin Islands Caucuses in 2 days!
Republican Washington, D.C. Primary in 4 days!
Democratic Northern Mariana Islands Caucuses in 4 days!
Republican Guam Caucuses in 4 days!
Democratic American Samoa Caucuses in 5 days!
Democratic Illinois Primary in 7 days!
Republican Northern Mariana Islands Caucuses in 7 days!
Republican Ohio Primary in 7 days!
Democratic Missouri Primary in 7 days!
Democratic North Carolina Primary in 7 days!
Republican Florida Primary in 7 days!
Democratic Ohio Primary in 7 days!
Republican Illinois Primary in 7 days!
Republican Missouri Primary in 7 days!
Republican North Carolina Primary in 7 days!
Democratic Florida Primary in 7 days!
REP primaries debate in 2 days.
DEM primaries debate tomorrow.
Abbott endorsed by Sen. David Vitter > Education!
Sen. David Vitter is now a potential Surrogate for Abbott!
Spire endorsed by Gov. John Bel Edwards > Unions!
Gov. John Bel Edwards is now a potential Surrogate for Spire!
Reckoner's policy speech on the Role of Government issue has backfired!
Reckoner receives permanent issue penalty from policy speech on the Role of Government issue.
Tilden-St. Leonard's attack ad has backfired.
MAPS
Ignore McMullin. Leaders of each state are colour-coded; white states means it's too close to call. The percentage list on the right-hand side is the popular vote; the lines and segments down the bottom are PROJECTED delegates. Earned delegates are located in posts #1 and #2.
you'll get them in the next posts because:
Next time, on this thing!:
We have two withdrawls.
Posted: Wed Feb 22, 2017 2:55 am
by Drench
Suspensions of Campaigns II and III
Monday, March 7th, 2016
After failing to convert votes into delegates and make progress to the line of 1237, both
Khan
(R) and
Defender
(R) have decided to suspend their campaigns.
It was never a question of winning delegates: both candidates performed that job. It was about winning enough, and whether they had the tenacity to continue if not. Neither were hyper-ideologues; neither were conviction politicians of the highest order, willing to continue when all hope was lost. Both
Khan
and
Defender
eventually saw the writing on the wall.
Despite their good performances in polling, it's instructive to note that the top three delegate earners are the ones who remain. Neither
Defender
nor
Khan
were simply not equipped, either financially or electorally, to overcome the deficit they had built. The former had just under $400,000 in the bank; the latter marginally less. In a national campaign, it's not enough.
The decision to pull out in the lead-up to a primary contest--indeed, multiple contests--will be hotly contested and debated. It was probably the wrong move. But to pull out now may save political face, and maintain relationships; these being among the last proportional contests of note, it may have been better to shut the door when the losses weren't as great, and everyone won at least a little bit.
A contested convention appears unlikely, but the some-20% of the vote these two controlled must go somewhere. If it changes some winner-take-all results, we may have a contest on our hands, and in that event, neither may be happy to pledge their collective 230~ delegates towards a candidate. Their best relationships were with each other. Now that their races are over,
Defender
and
Khan
must turn to someone else in support.
Next time:
Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho; their ballot just got chopped in half. Grim days for the undecided voter.
Posted: Wed Feb 22, 2017 3:02 am
by Drench
it's 1am i'm going to sleep
enjoy the suspense
Posted: Wed Feb 22, 2017 4:04 am
by inspiratieloos
Wait... Am I campaigning in Democrats Abroad? How does that even work?
Posted: Wed Feb 22, 2017 4:09 am
by xRECKONERx
GOP is a three horse race now ooooo
Posted: Wed Feb 22, 2017 7:51 am
by Majiffy
Reck when are you just gonna give up and man my phones
Posted: Wed Feb 22, 2017 7:52 am
by Majiffy
Also this simulation has told me that I need to uproot and start my political career in Texas. Maybe I'll go to Houston.
Posted: Wed Feb 22, 2017 2:06 pm
by Drench
In post 237, inspiratieloos wrote:Wait... Am I campaigning in Democrats Abroad? How does that even work?
i got no idea man
Posted: Wed Feb 22, 2017 2:13 pm
by Kublai Khan
In post 235, Drench wrote:After failing to convert votes into delegates and make progress to the line of 1237, both Khan (R) and Defender (R) have decided to suspend their campaigns.
Aw, boo. Still, makes sense. Don't have the war coffer, so likely can't compete in the greater picture. Left in good position to have a job in the Abbott administration or run again in 4 years.
Will continue to follow this. I do agree that they need to tweak some things in the AI to make it a better simulation.
Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2017 2:10 am
by Drench
Suspension of Campaign IV
Tuesday, March 8th, 2016
I lied, there's one more.
Following a string of underwhelming performances, only one state victory, and weak debate performances,
Tilden-St. Leonard
(R) has decided to suspend her campaign.
In the delegate hunt,
Tilden-St. Leonard
was always disadvantaged. Failing to make thresholds across the country, her only chance of emerging in the top three delegate counts was to hold on until the end, and despite being on track to do that, it proved a bridge too far. She suspends her campaign after three other Republicans, but only out-performed one of them.
Tilden-St. Leonard
was certainly flush of money--with over a million in the bank--and with an average fundraising pull. But her overall platform failed to really connect with Republican voters in the way that all five other Republicans, with more traditionally centre-right positions, did. Being a centrist is great news for a general election candidate, but you have to make it there first.
She did not make it there first. Pulling out before the Tuesday elections is the incorrect move (and the AI is dumb for doing it), but it's a move she'll have to live with--and it's a move that may cause seismic shifts in how the rest of the contest proceeds. A race that was almost locked up by
Abbott
now has a full potential to swing towards
Negarir
.
This convention will most likely not be contested. But the window does exist. Outside the two remaining candidates, 312 delegates sit, and if the margin is smaller than that, it'll be--as they say--on. Where
Tilden-St. Leonard
sends her delegates, however, may not be known for some time.
Next time:
NOW we're getting elections.
Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2017 2:12 am
by Drench
SUPER 2UESDAY
YEAH BAYBEY!!! It's Super Tuesday, but a second one. Super 2uesday. I loathe CNN for calling it this.
Three contests on the Democratic side and four on the Republican, with the latter now being an either-or proposition. Exciting times.
Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2017 2:21 am
by Drench
DEMOCRATS
ABROAD
Truly bless the crackt boys and girls of the Democratic National Committee. In their benevolence, 34 half-delegates have been elected from ALL OVER THE WORLD by Democrats (from ALL OVER THE WORLD). It literally took a week let's get this over and done with. 17 delegates,
15%
.
Spoiler: Democrats Abroad; Tuesday, 1st March to Tuesday, 8th March, 2016
The final results have been certified.
In fifth place, with 4,755 votes and 13.8% of the vote,
Reckoner
. He fails to make the delegate threshold, and overperforms final polling by 0.3%.
In fourth place, with 5,082 votes and 14.7% of the vote,
McGriddles
. He fails to make the delegate threshold, and underperforms final polling by 0.2%.
In third place, with 5,385 votes and 15.6% of the vote...
...
Peanuts
. He claims four delegates, and underperforms final polling by 0.1%.
The winner of Democrats Abroad...
With 10,273 votes, and 29.8% of the vote...
Spire
7 delegates won
+0.5% from polling
In second place, with 9,000 votes and 26.1% of the vote,
Serduchka
. She claims six delegates, and overperforms final polling by 2.0%.
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Spire
29.8%
10,273
7 dels
+0.5%
Serduchka
26.1%
9,000
6 dels
+2.0%
Peanuts
15.6%
5,385
4 dels
-0.1%
McGriddles
14.7%
5,082
0 dels
-0.2%
Reckoner
13.8%
4,755
0 dels
+0.3%
Total
34,495
17 dels
up next, i am the hoe, and the island one
Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2017 2:33 am
by Drench
HAWAII AND IDAHO (
REPUBLICAN
)
Hawaii has like four Republican voters in total but they still possess 19 delegates completely proportional. Which is roughly a
5%
threshold, but come on, there's two candidates left, that's getting made. A little less permissive is Idaho, which does it at a
20%
threshold. But there are 32 delegates so it's worth it.
As a note, both candidates will massively overperform polling today because, nationally, about 30% of the vote on average just got injected into one or the other candidate's share. Congrats.
Spoiler: The Hawaii Republican Caucus; Tuesday, 8th March, 2016
The final results have been certified.
The winner of the Hawaii Republican caucus...
With 7,764 votes, and 58.0% of the vote...
Negarir
11 delegates won
+28.4% from polling
Abbott
wins 5,616 votes, 42.0% of the vote, and eight delegates. He overperformes final polling by 10.4%.
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
58.0%
7,764
11 dels
+28.4%
Abbott
42.0%
5,616
8 dels
+10.4%
Total
13,380
19 dels
And Idaho.
Spoiler: The Idaho Republican Primary; Tuesday, 8th March, 2016
The final results have been certified.
The winner of the Idaho Republican primary...
With 113,337 votes, and 51.0% of the vote...
Negarir
16 delegates won
+29.2% from polling
Abbott
wins 108,883 votes, 49.0% of the vote, and sixteen delegates. He overperformes final polling by 16.9%.
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
51.0%
113,337
16 dels
+29.2%
Abbott
49.0%
108,883
16 dels
+16.9%
Total
222,220
32 dels
We finish off with both parties' contests in Mississippi and Michigan.
Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2017 2:46 am
by Drench
MISSISSIPPI
Mississippi: both an annoying school chant and a rich source of delegates. 40 delegates on the Republican side, 41 on the Democratic; and both sides' thresholds are
15%
. Fun fun fun.
Spoiler: The Mississippi Republican Primary; Tuesday, 8th March, 2016
The final results have been certified.
The winner of the Mississippi Republican primary...
With 289,963 votes, and 69.7% of the vote...
Negarir
28 delegates won
+36.0% from polling
Abbott
wins 126,607 votes, 30.3% of the vote, and twelve delegates. He overperformes final polling by 9.1%.
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
69.7%
289,963
28 dels
+36.0%
Abbott
30.3%
126,307
12 dels
+9.1%
Total
416,270
40 dels
Spoiler: The Mississippi Democratic Primary; Tuesday, 8th March, 2016
The final results have been certified.
In fifth place, with 30,903 votes and 13.6% of the vote,
McGriddles
. He fails to make the delegate threshold, and overperforms final polling by 2.8%.
In fourth place, with 34,800 votes and 15.3% of the vote,
Serduchka
. She claims seven delegates, and underperforms final polling by 1.8%.
In third place, with 38,993 votes and 17.2% of the vote...
...
Reckoner
. He claims eight delegates, and underperforms final polling by 1.3%.
The winner of the Mississippi Democratic primary...
With 68,725 votes, and 30.3% of the vote...
Mr. Peanuts
15 delegates won
+5.3% from polling
In second place, with 53,743 votes and 23.7% of the vote,
Spire
. He claims eleven delegates, and overperforms final polling by 2.7%.
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Peanuts
30.3%
68,725
15 dels
+5.3%
Spire
23.7%
53,743
11 dels
+2.7%
Reckoner
17.2%
38,993
8 dels
-1.3%
Serduchka
15.3%
34,800
7 dels
-1.8%
McGriddles
13.6%
30,903
0 dels
+2.8%
Total
227,164
41 dels
yay cool michigan time
Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2017 2:54 am
by Drench
MICHIGAN
in honour of the real life michigan i will be drinking throughout this post to make up for back then when i couldn't (legally)
15%
threshold for both, 59 delegates for Republicans and 147 for Democrats.
Spoiler: The Michigan Republican Primary; Tuesday, 8th March, 2016
The final results have been certified.
The winner of the Michigan Republican primary...
With 765,719 votes, and 57.9% of the vote...
Negarir
34 delegates won
+31.6% from polling
Abbott
wins 557,870 votes, 42.1% of the vote, and twenty five delegates. He overperformes final polling by 17.5%.
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
57.9%
765,719
34 dels
+31.6%
Abbott
42.1%
557,870
25 dels
+17.5%
Total
1,323,589
59 dels
let's finish this off
Spoiler: The Michigan Democratic Primary; Tuesday, 8th March, 2016
The final results have been certified.
In fifth place, with 161,851 votes and 13.4% of the vote,
McGriddles
. He fails to make the delegate threshold, and underperforms final polling by 0.6%.
In fourth place, with 222,827 votes and 18.5% of the vote,
Peanuts
. He claims thirty one delegates, and overperforms final polling by 1.9%.
In third place, with 229,650 votes and 19.0% of the vote...
...
Spire
. He claims thirty two delegates, and overperforms final polling by 3.0%.
The winner of the Michigan Democratic primary...
With 316,661 votes, and 26.3% of the vote...
Reckoner
45 delegates won
-1.0% from polling
In second place, with 274,563 votes and 22.8% of the vote,
Serduchka
. She claims thirty nine delegates, and overperforms final polling by 1.1%.