Mini Normal 1874: Camping Trip Mafia (Game Over)

[SensFan]

Page 33:

actually when i say wifom the scum, i'm indicating that i'm not planning to claim at all until the next day phase.

you gave your reason and i didn't like it as it doesn't sound town motivated so i'm awaiting other responses before i make my decision.

How about we start simple, do you have a role that could clear fykus? For instance anything that would return something from the mod like "no result" if you were jailed?

Once you say no to that, do you have a role like bodyguard, doctor, bulletproof that would keep someone from dying that basically counters a JKer? For instance if you are a doctor and you protected someone I'd like to know cause it would nearly confirm that player town when fykus flips scum.

Not a fan of any more partial hints or claims. Requires a full claim.

Also, you don't read well. I said I suspect you are town so not sure why all the defensive FOS talk. I also suspect you are a weaker player and wish you'd trust stronger players like BV and myself when we suggest it is in towns best interest if you claim today. Unlike BV I am not in agreement that we send a bunch of votes your way to force you to claim.

Also don't really like the "Just listen to the good players" argument at all. Cases should be weighed on their merit, not how good the person making them is.

--

Woah, okay. So Jupiter is a weird JOAT and Matt is a Doc. What? Okay, so I think we already have way too much claimed Power alive. There's a dead Tracker+backup, and we have a claimed Doc/JK/JOAT, the latter of which has a 1-shot Doc? No way. I think there's at least 1, possibly 2 Scum in that trio. A tracker and two roles to protect it seems very strong. Will have more thoughts as I keep reading.

[SensFan]

Page 34:

Some talk about a massclaim. I do agree that at this point it probably makes sense, pending what happens in the next few pages. Nothing too much to comment on here.

Page 35:

So I say we lynch Sens tomorrow, and if he flips town then lynch Nadpool.

I don't like this train of thought that we should be trying to set up future lynches. It's something that's been happening for most of the day, and just strikes me as scummy. The Scum have more information than we do right now, so why decide on a future lynch when we will have more information later?

--

Okay, I've changed my mind about wanting to slow down the game. I'll obviously be alive tomorrow to figure out the game, and there isn't much we can get from Sensfan today that we won't get tomorrow given Fykus is pretty much confirmed scum. So, might as well lynch Fykus and get on with it. I'll vote him once everyone checks in and Matt posts last thoughts.

@Matt, I haven't ruled out the scum distancing from Shannon. I'm going to have a look at her ISO and discuss in a bit.

@Mod - do you offer accelerated nights if everyone PMs you for one?

I don't like this. Why rush through things? We don't lose time later if we use it today, so I don't understand the desire to rush anything. I see you backed off of this a few posts later, but it still rubs me the wrong way. Can you explain what in your mind the benefit would be to a rushed day?

[SensFan]

Page 36:

Almost entirely WIFOM and setup speculation, which I'm not a big fan of. I don't see much use in trying to decide if Scum would or wouldn't kill a claimed PR. The one part I find very interesting is Shannon's continued insistence that there's some super weird and uncommon Scum PRs in a Normal. It's the type of thing that wouldn't even enter my mind as an option, and am curious why you are focused on that.

[SensFan]

Page 37:

I knew sick was 100% scum after claiming watcher, but I couldn't state that without outting myself, so I knew that keeping sick alive and hunting for other scum when we have lynches available was something I thought was a good idea at the time

Fair enough on forgetting his role. That was the only plausible explanation and I wanted to see if you would say that.

Really? It's plausible that a Town player forgets literally the only piece of information available to them about the setup?

--

The Sick/Fykus discussion is interesting. I'm certainly more inclined to believe that they're two partners who completely botched a distancing/bussing plan than that Fykus is Town and didn't care too much whether he or Sick was lynched. The fairly quick hammer on Sick also strikes me as a panic move rather than Town-motivated. I don't think the natural reaction to a Town player being lurky and finally having time to come back to the game is to immediately hammer.

[SensFan]

That's bullshit. He was going to be prodded in 3 hours so he showed up just in time to prod-dodge. Busy weekend didn't stop him from posting elsewhere even after this game thread opened for D3.

What do you mean by prod-dodging? Like, why would I care whether or not I get prodded?

You can think what you want. I had a super busy weekend. You're also being a little disingenuous as I made a single quick two-line post after this game opened.

[SensFan]

All in all, I think Fykus is probably the lynch for today. The interaction with Sick is abnormal, and the hammer is terrible. I believe there's only three votes on Fykus now and so will vote him pending a VC (just to be sure).

[BlackVoid]

@Shannon - IAI voted sickofit in RVS on D1 so him moving off isn't really concerning. I do want him to explain why he moved off from Sickofit to Fykus on D2 though. As for me voting Sickofit D2, I'm a different person than LUV and I'd like to think I'm decent scumhunter. I didn't vote at all D1 because the day ended before I could make a decision on where I wanted to vote. There might be more than co-incidence to the fact that there was a voting block though. I'm interested in seeing what you do with it.

@Sensfan - you are heavily downplaying how annoying how annoying and frustrating your inactivity in this game has been. You have contributed almost nothing to the game besides your initial push on TwoFace for suspecting sickofit. Then you showed up and complained about how people unvoting because of claims is bad (which I think you actually believe even though I disagree). You claimed to not buy the Fykus wagon, on D2 you joined the people saying that TwoFace was too obvious a kill for sickofit to make and did not contribute towards his lynch. You've been on the wrong end of the sickofit lynch pretty much the whole game and given he was the roleblocker, that doesn't look very good for you. I was indeed skeptical of your post last night because it seemed like more of the same stalling but at least now you've started becoming active so I'm slightly happier about that and your read on Fykus. At the time I suggested just moving on with the day, I didn't have any hope that you ever intended to catch up and it seemed like you and Fykus have given up on the game. I'm still not at the point of townreading you though and would appreciate you hammering out in-depth reads on all players.

[Jaack]

VOTE COUNT 1.05

lucca261 (4): mattblackguy, Nadpool, shannon, Lil Uzi Vert
Sickofit1138 (3): I Am Innocent, TwoFace, Soulmil07
mattblackguy (2): ssbm_Kyouko, Sickofit1138
TwoFace (1): SensFan
shannon (1): massive
Fykus (1): lucca261
Nadpool (1): Fykus

Just looking at some votecounts and this one struck me as interesting. The lucca wagon kinda just appeared and disappeared within like two pages and was hardly ever discussed. Matt's the only one who offered any sort of reasons...

I'm not sure what I make of this. None of the confirmed towns nor my strongest townreads are on it, but neither are my strongest scumreads...

Taking note of this now to review later.

I'm glad I quoted this or else I would have forgotten it.

Let's assume for a moment that fykus is scum and lucca/Jupiter is town. Here's a wagon on town with at least 3 town on it. The counterwagon is your scumbuddy roleblocker. To me that looks like a pretty solid opportunity, particularly for newbie scum.

Here's what fykus posted instead:

Page 6

@fykus, 138: I'll throw a question for you. What do you think of Matt saying that I'm pushing you both because you are the "weakest" players in the game.

I guess its plausible but probably unlikely. I'll withhold my judgement for now since you haven't posted much yet.

For now though, I'm going to put my vote on Nadpool since he has offered nothing but seemingly random votes so far this game.

VOTE: Nadpool

I feel like scumfykus would have voted lucca there.

That wagon's quick rise and fall makes a lot more sense if lucca/Jupiter is scum, as scum would be less willing to commit to and more willing to abandon such a wagon at this point.

I guess it still makes sense if both fykus and lucca/Jupiter are scum.

[Leonshade]

VOTE COUNT 3.02

Fykus (3):

I Am Innocent, Nadpool, mattblackguy

JupiterCrush (2):

massive, Jaack

Not Voting (5):

SensFan, BlackVoid, Fykus, JupiterCrush, shannon

With 10 players alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

Day 3 will end in (expired on 2017-03-04 04:16:02).

[Leonshade]

Deleted.

[Leonshade]

Fykus has been prodded. If he doesn't pick his prod up in (expired on 2017-02-21 15:31:47), I will start searching for a replacement.

[SensFan]

Cool.

Vote: Fykus

as mentioned before.

[BlackVoid]

@Jaack, so who do you think is partnered with Jupiter? Do you think there's merit to what I said about only me or IAI fitting in as a partner because if it was anyone else, they would have performed the kill instead of Jupiter doing it?

[mattblackguy]

@everyone who thinks Fykus is town,

Why do you think Sick didn't try to push Fykus' lynch yesterday? If Fykus really is Town Jailkeeper then Sick would have good reason to push for his lynch because it was between him and Fykus. It's not like Fykus was a universal townread. It actually was the opposite, and many people were already scumreading him. Sick wouldn't even have to try hard to push the lynch through of Fykus. Why would Sick want to get himself lynched over Fykus? He was the roleblocker, and if Fykus was a jailkeeper then he had all the reason to push a mislynch of the jailkeeper before he gets lynched tomorrow.

I'm a watcher. Now get the fuck off my wagon

Visited SSbm, who was targeted by Fykus.

This doesn't read like someone that was purposely countering Fykus, and trying to get him lynched. So I don't think his intent was to mislynch town!fykus, or to bus his partner. I think Sick accidentally countered Fykus when he was trying to make his results match up. (Either Sick thought Fykus said he visited SSbm, Fykus was supposed to say he visited SSbm or some other blunder happened here)

So why didn't Sick push for Fykus' lynch after he fucked up by countering him? Well simply he couldn't. Fykus wasn't getting townread, and even if he tried to slightly push Fykus it could cause people to jump off his wagon to Fykus' wagon which he absolutely didn't want. He had no choice at the point but to take the lynch because pushing his partner would have made the situation way worse for the scumteam.

After Fykus flips goon Sick would have been proved to be lying since there's no way Fykus!goon could have visited SSbm. This means if Sick pushed Fykus, and Fykus got lynched then he would get lynched the next day for lying. The only option Sick had after countering Fykus was to lie down and take the lynch, and just hope that Fykus could get away with some towncred.

[SensFan]

Oh shit. I hadn't considered that.

[Jaack]

@Jaack, so who do you think is partnered with Jupiter? Do you think there's merit to what I said about only me or IAI fitting in as a partner because if it was anyone else, they would have performed the kill instead of Jupiter doing it?

I don't see anything to rule out IAI as a choice, but at the same time, there's not really a smoking gun. I should note that it's possible that IAI was the nk choice as he has been widely townread and the only other option, fykus, was highly lynchable.

I think shannon makes a decent amount of sense. Moderately scummy on her own, was part of the first sick wagon D1, but not the second one, and only voted sick D2 after the lynch had pretty much been decided. With the lucca/jupiter slot, shannon was on that flashwagon D1, but joined and left without much of a word on the subject. It was actually shannon's vote that made me give that wagon a closer look initially, and it remains an odd vote.

@Matt - That seems like a reasonable enough narrative, but I still think that Jupiter is the superior lynch.

As far as I can see it, there are four possible things that can happen today:
1. We lynch Jupiter, Jupiter flips scum
2. We lynch Jupiter, Jupiter flips town
3. We lynch Fykus, Fykus flips scum
4. We lynch Fykus, Fykus flips town.

Since we have a flipped roleblocker, I'm going to assume that the remaining scum are all goons for the sake of this scenario work.

Scenario 1 is pretty awesome. We're down to one remaining scum, and we have a solid role like JK, which only improves when there's a single scum left.
Scenario 3 is also awesome, but an outted 1 shot BP that has to be activated is not particularly powerful. The best it can do is scare scum from shooting Jupiter until lylo, which is ok I guess, but not nearly as cool as a jk. I guess this one practically confirms IAI as town (I guess scum could have holstered, but that seems unlikely. The only other explination is that Matt saved IAI)
Scenario 2 and 4 are about equally bad. We waste a mislynch, Matt gets shot N3, lynch the other scum D4. If fykus was the scum, IAI dies N4, if Jupiter than idk) Either way, we're at 6 players with 2 chances to lynch 1 scum. Not great but still winnable. That being said I don't see much of a tangible difference between these scenarios.

If I were 50/50 on which one of fykus/jupiter was scum, I'd still support a Jupiter lynch, because it has higher upside. But I also think that Jupiter makes more sense as scum. If y'all decide that fykus is the better lynch, I'm not going to spend too much energy arguing against it - I'm not that confident in my reads. But Jupiter remains the far better lynch option.

[BlackVoid]

Here's why I prefer Fykus: I think the lack of reaction to sickofit faking a result on him is very unlikely to be town. I think the low activity level, the disinterest, and the stalling is unlikely to be town especially since I've read through a newbie town-game of his and his play here is nothing like this. I'm not sure why you don't think it's damning. There's also the fact that there's nothing in the D1 ISO of sickofit/Fykus that stops them from being partners. In fact, things like sickofit trying to associate Fykus with TwoFace points more towards them being partners. There's also what I mentioned earlier that sickofit would try harder to lynch Fykus if Fykus were town. What Matt said is the icing on the cake.

Between Fykus and Jupiter, I admit I'm annoyed with Jupiter's play and manner of revealing his claim. I'm not even sure I buy the role that he claimed and there's still a tinfoil worry that Lucca and Sickofit were using their previous game to signal to each other that "weird" was some kind of code. But I do have to say Jupiter's actions are consistent with his claim in a way that if he's scum, he went through a lot of effort to pre-plan the whole thing. I also like the fact that Lucca didn't bite into sickofit's insistence that because they pushed each other in a previous game, they should be friends now. Lucca pushed against that and voted him. All on balance, I think Fykus is more likely to flip scum and now that Sensfan has posted, I'm ready to vote there. Not sure who the partner is but since I'm certainly going to be alive tomorrow, I'll get around to it then.

VOTE: Fykus (L-1)

[Leonshade]

Okay, I've changed my mind about wanting to slow down the game. I'll obviously be alive tomorrow to figure out the game, and there isn't much we can get from Sensfan today that we won't get tomorrow given Fykus is pretty much confirmed scum. So, might as well lynch Fykus and get on with it. I'll vote him once everyone checks in and Matt posts last thoughts.

@Matt, I haven't ruled out the scum distancing from Shannon. I'm going to have a look at her ISO and discuss in a bit.

@Mod - do you offer accelerated nights if everyone PMs you for one?

Yes.

[BlackVoid]

I'm not really sold on the outcome of lynching a scum-Jupiter being good for us because I have a really hard time seeing Fykus being scum playing the way he did. I have considered all options, I looked over Lucca/Jupiter, looked over interactions between sickofit and Fykus and I still can't see a likely scenario where Fykus is town. If I'm wrong, that's a lot of re-evaluation I need to do although I'd lynch Jupiter and heavily lean towards IAI as Jupiter's partner. But most likely I think Fykus is scum and we have a pool of six to figure out the partner. So, I suggest we lynch Fykus today, see what role he has if scum, mass-claim tomorrow and then figure out where Jupiter's claim fits in.

[BlackVoid]

Anyone willing to hammer while the mod is here so we can get the flip?

[SensFan]

I'm not really sold on the outcome of lynching a scum-Jupiter being good for us because

I have a really hard time seeing Fykus being scum playing the way he did

. I have considered all options, I looked over Lucca/Jupiter, looked over interactions between sickofit and Fykus and I still can't see a likely scenario where Fykus is town. If I'm wrong, that's a lot of re-evaluation I need to do although I'd lynch Jupiter and heavily lean towards IAI as Jupiter's partner. But most likely I think Fykus is scum and we have a pool of six to figure out the partner. So, I suggest we lynch Fykus today, see what role he has if scum, mass-claim tomorrow and then figure out where Jupiter's claim fits in.

Typo?

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, I meant I have a hard time seeing him as town.

[mattblackguy]

@BV, If you lynch Inno this game I'm going to be pissed to you in the post game. You guys are both town and need to work together not against each other.

[BlackVoid]

If Fykus is scum like I expect, IAI is pretty much confirmed town not just because he nailed both scum on D1 and pushed for their lynches but also because he was the obvious nightkill N2 whom you saved.

I'm talking about the off-chance that Fykus is town. I don't think he is but I'm the kind of player that likes to exhaust all options and consider every possibility to make sure nothing gets by me so I looked over that too. To be clear, I don't think IAI is scum. I think Fykus is. With who, I'm not sure.

Unless you are arguing that IAI is town even in a Jupiter-scum, Fykus-town scenario, then I do have to wonder why Jupiter would perform the kill over someone outside of his list of top three.

[Fykus]

VOTE: fykus

See you in hell candy boys!