The way it played out: town got a kill when there was 6 town and 3 mafia
town got a kill when there was 5 town and 3 mafia
If you ignore everything else and just randomly kill both times (I don't like this type of calculation, personally), you have a 33% chance of killing mafia, then a 37.5% chance. By the time the numbers become managable, the game is over
"You are the Joker of mafia players" - Oversoul
"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.
His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
33% chance to lynch scum day 1.
37.5% chance to nightkill scum night 1.
Even if you consider day 2 an autowin at that point: and this game would have gone very sour for scum had I not fakeclaimed when I did: it's still pretty unlikely to get into this situation.
In post 633, RadiantCowbells wrote:All 3 of us had to live for one day. THat's surprisingly hard. Keep in mind that vig kills are significantly more likely to hit scum than lynches are.
its really not
and I understand that
You just had to claim something beleivable to live one day
In post 633, RadiantCowbells wrote:All 3 of us had to live for one day. THat's surprisingly hard. Keep in mind that vig kills are significantly more likely to hit scum than lynches are.
But what about the percentages thing?
I don't think it's as hard as you're saying - maybe in THIS run it happened to be hard (again, I didn't read it) but that shouldn't effect game balance
Even if you say that vig kills are average chance to hit scum: which they're not. by that token lynches are less likely to hit scum as well.
there's a 58.33% chance that 1 scum is dead on day 2.
even if 41.66% was near scum autowin, which I think it wasn't necessarily without some organization behind the wheel, the setup's still not going to wind up being that scumsided.
FMPOV there is a very high % chance in most lobbies that scum will do something scummy while pushing the day 1 wagon and get vigged for it.
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
And even then, while not fairly balanced, It's not bad to be runnable a single time as a bastard game. The real problem is the winrate combined with it feeling unfair for the majority of town - In the end most of town only had a say in 1 kill and then they lost, meaning they couldn't do anythign to prevent the loss themself - even though they hadn't been lynched or killed
I agree that the way the game played out felt shitty for town but again I don't think that was related to percentages as much as it was to that this is a bad game to be run closed.
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
But anyway this is called Frozen Angel mafia for a reason! It's the story of Frozen Angel's life as either alignment. She thinks that she's going to win but then I screw up her faction, whether I'm on it or not
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
In post 645, RadiantCowbells wrote:I agree that the way the game played out felt shitty for town but again I don't think that was related to percentages as much as it was to that this is a bad game to be run closed.
thats wrong calculation. scum have support and the ability to live one more day
They always have that ability
41.6% to definitly win the game d2 is pretty high
I think you're horribly underestimating the probability that the N1 vig hits town if town is lynched day 1. Vig shots are pretty fucking likely to hit scum overall.
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.