Open 60: The New C9 - Game over!

[iamausername]

Yeah, it probably is about time to lay down a vote.

Vote: armlx

.

Everyone, who do you think is specifically mafia? Specifically SK?

[armlx]

Shteven = Mafia, Username = SK.

[Shteven]

Aye, the game's slowed down some, so if this is all the arguments we'll make today, I'm ready to vote.

I'd say Fonz is SK, and Armlx mafia. And since I haven't been able to drum up much support for Fonz, I'll try to take the hint.

Vote: Armlx

[armlx]

I'd say Fonz is SK, and Armlx mafia. And since I haven't been able to drum up much support for Fonz, I'll try to take the hint.

What's the hint? That you are shamelessly band wagoning?

[iamausername]

Yep, suspected that would happen, and I'm going to

Unvote, Vote: Shteven

, because he's clearly more concerned with his own survival than trying to find scum.

I'm pretty much seeing it like this right now:

armlx is probably mafia, but possibly town.
Shteven is probably SK, but possibly mafia.
Fonz is probably town, but possibly SK.

But whichever scum Shteven flips as, I'll be scouring things with a fine toothed comb before I vote tomorrow. (This assumes Shteven is lynched today, and vollkan is killed tonight, since anything else would be madness on someone's part.)

[The Fonz]

It's futile to try to keep your vote count down, just like it's futile to keep your post count down. You'll be called for lurking and be policy lynched. If you want to lay low you have to vote, but vote carefully so as to not generate attention. It takes skill to survive as an SK.

But, and this is fairly crucial,

that's precisely what you were accusing me of, earlier.

Iam: Shteven specifically SK
Currently seeing arm rather than you as mafia.

I am obviously happy enough with this wagon to hammer. Going to hold off in order to give vollkan chance to present any final thoughts that might help tomorrow assuming we're lynching correctly.

[The Fonz]

In fact, vollkan, it may be an idea for you to come up with 3-5 questions for each of us, and then have all agree to begin the day by answering them should it come to that.

[Shteven]

I'd be more upset, but actually lynching a townie (me) isn't that horrible of an outcome.

That will leave us with 1 unconfirmed townie, 1 mason, 1 mafia, one sk. the killing factions have to kill each other to win - so if they're both right town wins. They win if they are right and the other is wrong. Obviously you can't afford to kill Vollkan. SO DON'T, damnit. /cough

I hope you guys have good reads on each other

If you lynch me there won't be a tommorow.

[Shteven]

After having re-read my post, I imagined myself as the Fonz, and I figure what I posted is probably going to make him even more likely to lynch me. I imagine something about accepting one's own lynch as inevitable being along the lines of self-voting.

I just hope he flips scum for ego purposes I'd be alright with being wrong about sk vs mafia.

[armlx]

I imagine something about accepting one's own lynch as inevitable being along the lines of self-voting.

Not in the slightest actually, unless you stop posting logical things because of it.

[Shteven]

I'd say Fonz is SK, and Armlx mafia. And since I haven't been able to drum up much support for Fonz, I'll try to take the hint.

What's the hint? That you are shamelessly band wagoning?

At first I thought you meant I was band wagoning Fonz, which confused me. But the only way this would make sense is if you meant that I was trying to go for a more popular option, i.e. you. Yes, that's what I did.

I'm not really sure band wagoning at this point is such a bad thing. Or maybe I should say that after we've had several pages and weeks of discussion with no votes, that it's really not band wagoning for me to vote for someone who I think has the best chances of being mafia and is also likely to get support. I suppose it comes from doubt that my read of Fonz is accurate that I'm willing to listen to others - my case on him is based on gut. I'm pretty convinced, but I've been wrong before. Let me ask you this - if a townie thinks someone else's case is better than theirs, what should they do?

This shouldn't be taken to say that I think the Fonz has been acting better lately or that he isn't the SK. I still don't trust him, but I don't have the proof to convince others.

-----------------------
In fact, for the interest of the fonz, I worked out if it would be beneficial to myself to lynch myself. On randomly selected lynches, it's not. The question is how good or bad an approximation random lynches are at this point, when things are really somewhat biased.

(Numbers given are random lynches)
Lynch scum today:
3 townies, 1 scum.
Night kill vollkan, 2 townies: 1 scum.
In other words, Shteven + scum + townie.

Technically this lynch is 1/2 chance but call me somewhat pessimistic about it's true odds. Vollkan hasn't posted much today but as he's almost certainly dead by this point his trust or non-trust of me won't be an issue. I believe the other town to be likely to lynch me.

lynch Shteven:
Previous scenario - killing factions attempt to cross kill. Not certain, but significant chances of victory.

So it's either (2/3) [chance of random lynching non-vollkan non-shteven player] x 1/2 (tomorrow's lynch) = 1/3.

or

vote self - attempt cross kills. Assuming the killing factions act in their own best interest and not out of spite: 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4.

So randomly I shouldn't do it, but I'm tempted to because I believe my odds are worse off than random, and with increasing information the killing factions should be able to make a slightly better choice.

Using non-random lynches:
In words - I think our chances of getting a cross kill are higher than our chances of lynching correctly both times; especially since we're already about to lynch incorrectly now. If I did manage to turn around today's lynch, tommorow's lynch would likely be myself. Lightning may strike twice, but I'm more confident in getting cross kills.

What the hell. I'll take it. Sorry vollkan, who didn't get a chance to post much today. At the very least, it's an interesting gambit to have a chance to take, right?

I think our odds on day 5 might have been over 50% but with the mislynch day 6 opened with us <50%. The chances of getting a cross kill, with the information we have, is probably slightly higher than 25%, maybe 30-35%. Good luck all

Scum - please act in your own best interests - you still have a good shot of winning if you're right and they're wrong! You cannot reasonably win by shooting a townie. [technically I suppose if you double kill the same townie it will open day 7 and then you can try again, but really, no.]

Vote: Shteven.

Fonz: be sure to tell me what you think about this particular self voting post-game, although it's sadly too late for you to policy lynch me.

[armlx]

Umm, it would have been better to wait and have vollkan show up.

[The Fonz]

Umm, it would have been better to wait and have vollkan show up.

This.

Also, 2 v1 endgame leaves the result in the town's hands, which I, at least, would prefer. Plus, even in the scenario where you're not full of crap, allowing vollkan to get his 0.02 in might help the scum hit each other.

Pulling this one after spending the entire game advocating the virtues of 'more discussion' just makes me more confident in your anti-townness.

[Shteven]

I did leave out one condition in my case: the assumed 2/3 chances of lynching today was relying on my own knowledge I'm townie - so really that's not giving an accurate picture. This doesn't change my decision, it instead strengthens my case, but it was enough of a flaw I wanted to correct it.

Another way of looking at it is to think of the three possibilities for today's lynch:

Lynch Shteven - go for cross kills, about 35% victory.
Lynch a scum player - Vollkan dies, outcome depends on the lynch tomorrow. Likely to lynch Shteven. Exactly what percent is hard to say, but I put it at less than 35% town victory.

[Shteven]

Pulling this one after spending the entire game advocating the virtues of 'more discussion' just makes me more confident in your anti-townness.

More discussion is a good thing. Forgive me for estimating our chances were low, and yes I realize this is denying other players the chances of future actions, and I'm sorry about that, but from a game theory POV, I think it was a good move.

I hope you don't think I'm an anti-town role, as that's 3 votes and it's impossible for me to scum now. I suppose you could mean I'm an anti-town player, instead of role, though.

[The Fonz]

I've kept on insisting my innocence as scum after the lynch before, just to screw with the town.

(In fact, the one time I self-voted in the past outside the RVS, I -lolirony- actually

was

the sk, so this don't impress me much).

[Shteven]

I was more implying the fact that I just killed myself, which means that either I'm willing to accept a 0% chance of victory when I previously had some, or that I'm town. Continuing to insist innocence after someone else kills you is rather different

[The Fonz]

Meh, you were just waiting for me to hammer anyway. I just have a really hard time believing you're town here.

[armlx]

Meh, you were just waiting for me to hammer anyway. I just have a really hard time believing you're town here.

I don't. As scum in this scenario you have absolutely no reason to self hammer as that would be conceding a game you could in theory get a win out of.

BTW, on the topic Fonz, there is 1 instance where self voting is ok. If the scenario right now was 3/2 and shteven was scum, sellf hammer would be +EV as it stops vollkan from showing up and posting.

[The Fonz]

Yep. Self-voting can sometimes make sense for scum. But it only really makes sense for town in the random stage, or when it's 2-1-1.

[armlx]

I disagree about the random stage.

The point of random voting is to be able to observe the clearly non-random trails that occur from it. The town loses nothing by doing it, so random voting is a 100% pro-town action. Therefore, not random voting is bad as its deliberately not doing a pro-town action.

Self voting is more or less the same as not random voting, as the point of random voting is to see interactions between players and self voting doesn't do that.

[The Fonz]

I disagree entirely. Self-voting in the random stage, so long as it is rare, can be used to stir up town, encourage opportunists to attack you, and so on.

[armlx]

encourage opportunists to attack you,

This falls into the whole trap setting issue, which I disagree with. Traps only catch lazy people, not necessarily scum.

[The Fonz]

Doesn't matter, when you're trying to get on from the RVS and generate genuine issue-based discussion.

[armlx]

I see what you are saying, but I can't say I agree with your methods.