Open 786 | Dream Mafia | Cult Win!

[innocentvillager]

so... you're seriously okay with this vote?

[innocentvillager]

scum in {Hiraki, Ari}
scum in {Ari, JC}

common denominator is Ari here, feel like I'm overthinking it

[the worst]

i thiiiiinnnnnnnkkkkkkk ssssssssooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

like i can see trajectory in your solve that makes me think it's {a real thought process, planned}
i think you're town
you're realistically also probably the worst case scenario deepwolf rn
so i'd rather you be voting someone i'm Uncomfortable about than have to vote them myself

[innocentvillager]

why does recruit!JC try to pretend the message went through to town!Ari? i like don't believe the scumteam like discussed all of this, didn't privately ask the mod, and try to pretend it got sent anyway, wouldn't recruit!JC just "send" it to one of his new cult buddies?

[innocentvillager]

i mean im more asking if you agree with me LOL

[the worst]

oh lmao

that little voice at the bottom of my gut is screaming that you're right
my biggest concern is that it feels like users is more like, directly playing in a way which generates elims which i think are on town and i Don't think he is town ...

[the worst]

honestly though maybe 2 + 2 just equals ari being scum
i could be overthinking this

[innocentvillager]

i mean i was planning on unvoting because ? but after hearing your reaction i kind of want to just keep my vote here, i feel better about this now

[Hiraki]

UNVOTE: hiraki why aren't you still voting ari

someone told me to unvote so i said w/e

looking at the time left, i am putting it back on

i have trouble reconciling username to scum after D1 and D2. i don't think he acts that way as cult leader, could also be why i wasn't culted though N1 though. i also want to investigate something just so i can be doubly right. ari has both ties to username and titus as CL which makes me think it was intentional. the other side is username doesn't and titus hasn't done anything in a game that is at D3 while being known as the VCA person.

the reason i feel that it's also not username is that i have more faith in cult-titus to recognize a good vote placement on a cult lynch (was 2 on ythan) while i don't see that from the other two. ari also went after iamusername D1 harder than titus' slot so i just don't see that being the slot that rolled it.

Unvote, Vote: Ari

[innocentvillager]

okay. i kind of think this is right, but im very nervous...

[Aristophanes]

Wait wtf.

Why am I getting votes?

I'm tired and getting here. I will do it tn or early tomorrow.

WTF are these VOTES!?!?

[Titus]

Ari --- IV, Hiraki
Titus - username
username - Titus

I'll try to look at this more tmo but no promises as I have work.

[the worst]

i guess i'm also posting just to say i've popped in & haven't tried any bullshit

don't really have the time to add anything right now; i'll be around more probably like, tomorrow.

[iamausername]

huh.

from my perspective, Titus is basically confirmed cult at this point, pretty sure her vote has been on me long enough for a speedhammer to be organised.

innocentvillager does not make that Ari vote as cult. the flow of the game was very clearly headed for a username execution until he dropped that bombshell, and he would have no reason to want to disrupt that. i am extremely confident that he is town.

so we're left with Titus/Hiraki and Titus/Ari as the only possible OG cult teams. even if i consider the possibility that i've been wrong about Hiraki, Titus seems like the obvious cult leader: BM (Titus) came in hard against Korina (Ari) on D1, and hard bussing your cult leader on D1 would be an act of absolute madness.

inno, who are you seeing as the other cult, if Ari is the leader?

[iamausername]

why does recruit!JC try to pretend the message went through to town!Ari? i like don't believe the scumteam like discussed all of this, didn't privately ask the mod, and try to pretend it got sent anyway, wouldn't recruit!JC just "send" it to one of his new cult buddies?

i kind of see where you're coming from, but like, why does cult!Ari pretend not to receive the message? doing so sets up a scenario where there is guaranteed scum in (Ari, Jesus), but only Jesus is mechanically confirmed to not be the cult leader, which just makes Ari more likely to end up on the chopping block. why wouldn't he just say "yep, got the message, Jesus is Friendly Neighbor as we already knew"?

[Jesus Christ]

ok, first thing's first:

VOTE: Titus

i can't see it being Ari. no one else can see it being Ari. if it is Ari, he's played it extremely well and deserves the win.

Titus does not deserve this win.

the worst, i think the major error in your analysis above is here:

if she's the CL she's also not incentivised to reflexively bus as soon as she replaces in here.

it is, in fact, very much in cult's interest to bus their recruit there. the day began at 5:3 town:cult ratio. executing town makes it 4:3. executing cultist, then recruiting someone else ALSO makes it 4:3, except they get to take out a town PR and sow more seeds of confusion.

it is 100% clear that Ythan was trying to get himself killed yesterday, and succeeded. and who started that wagon rolling? oh yeah, Hiraki. who has been obviously fucking aligned with Titus since day one. Hiraki and Ythan planned this out in the scum PT, Titus replaced in, had this plan relayed to her, agreed that it made sense and went along with it.

innocentvillager, i think the major flaw in your analysis above is:

I'm leaning username for now mostly since CL has an almost purely survivalistic agenda and being FOS'd all game there is definite scum-motivation to keeping up content like he's been doing

i accept that i am one of the few people who is not mechanically confirmed to not be the cult leader. i accept that this puts me under suspicion, and i accept that sometimes town players will get it wrong, and sometimes i'll be the one who takes the fall for that.

but "you are scum because you've actually been trying in this game" is the worst case anyone has ever made in a game of mafia and you should be ashamed of yourself

This theory actually makes sense. Even though I didn't get recruited, they probably wanted to recruit some random person to try to get the more useful PR.
VOTE: Titus because you thought she was the leader and Hiraki the rolecop?

Also being hard to read this game would be a cult strategy, since if Titus was townread then we would stop attacking her. But you guys might townread her, so what do you think?

[innocentvillager]

V/LA until Monday

sorry this should be my last V/LA for a while

will still try to check in quickly ~twice a day or so with this deadline

..also happier with my vote given no quickhammer? maybe not enough time has passed yet but... we'll see

[Titus]

I'm rather surprised by the division. I don't see why Ari would be getting wagoned unless I am wrong somewhere. Scum wanting to recruit the worst?

[Aristophanes]

scum in {Hiraki, Ari}
scum in {Ari, JC}

common denominator is Ari here, feel like I'm overthinking it

This is wrong entirely.
Holy shit.

Culted - JC
RoleCop - Hiraki, IV, Username, Titus
CL - IV, Username, Titus

I get weaving me into these, I am not because I can't be arsed to see where I fall here.
But saying the above is reductive and not even close to correct.

I actually think IV is cult based on recent posting.
They tested the waters with a vote on me and then went V/LA.
They reduced things in the wrong way making it look like I am Cult.
They are manipulating TW's trust in them.

GDI

[Aristophanes]

Possible scum based on no quickhammers:

Titus/Username - should contain 1 scum.
Hiraki/Aristophanes - should be 1 scum.

From this I think Hiraki is Rolecop I guess
Titus/Username are CL.

It means IV is just fucking bad though and I will trust TW's read there as I have been but seriously.
I. Am. Not. CULT!

Titus or Username today.
I think it's Username.

[Hiraki]

They tested the waters with a vote on me and then went V/LA.

You think he planned to go V/LA just so he would not be suspicious? That's kind of dirty, don't you think?

[Aristophanes]

They tested the waters with a vote on me and then went V/LA.

You think he planned to go V/LA just so he would not be suspicious? That's kind of dirty, don't you think?

In the end I think they are probably town, as my analysis got me to again.

I am hoping they wouldn't do that because it is, in fact, dirty.
It's also possible the two happened to align by chance. If that's the case it is not dirty, just coincidental. I can accept that.

[Hiraki]

Right - I read that. Just seems like you're grabbing at straws by pulling that one out and actually posting it. If anything, that makes me feel a little better in my reads.

[innocentvillager]

hi I am unfortunately super busy RL (cramming for something on Monday I am behind as fuck) for real, I wouldn’t fake V/LA as either alignment when I don’t need to nono pls

I am bad at separating out mafia from my RL concerns and will probably still check in too often anyway

quick note on skimming is Ari I see you don’t like my reductions but then you proceed to call Hiraki and JC scum fypov which kind of proves my point?

[Aristophanes]

Yeah that all makes sense. Sorry for assuming the worst case, IV. I should have known you wouldn't do that.

JC is 100% confirmed town and Hiraki is 100% confirmed not CL and knowing this I cannot look at the game any other way really. I'm trying to be as open and objective as I can but it's not easy when you have a slam dunk and nobody else can see it.