Open 81 - The New C9 - Game Over

[Korts]

Explain.

[StrangerCoug]

Are you voting strife220 for WIFOM?

[Korts]

You can say that. I'm voting him for his unnatural conviction in me lying. He hasn't seriously considered me being the real doc, which I think would be pro-town. His points against me are pretty much speculation and circular logic, and the assumption that the doc would've been killed off ASAP, while the alternative is also worth thought, that scum kept the doc alive in the hopes of getting him lynched.

I guess my points have all been said before, but my conviction in strife being scum is pretty big right now.

[farside22]

I agree with korts on this. I'm been saying over and over that scum are more likely to use this tactic to make a doc look like scum then a townie would.

vote: strife

[StrangerCoug]

You guys had better be right, because I'm going against what I said earlier...

Vote: strife220

for the kill.

[Korts]

SC, I'm trying to figure out whether it may be optimal for you not to shoot tonight. You'll have a 1 in 3 chance of hitting the last scum, and if you miskill, that may lose the town's chance. On the other hand, you'll have to take into account the fact that you have a fairly good chance of targetting the same person as the scum, and the fact that I may manage another save tonight.

[StrangerCoug]

I'm not going to vig anybody tonight unless I'm positive they're scum.

[The Fonz]

Hmmm. I'd rather you'd have waited to hammer at least until I got to post farside analysis, but oh well. I'd probably have come to the conclusion she's always scum, like usual.

Regarding vigging tonight: obv if Strife flips town it's a no-brainer. Kill whoever you're most sure is scum. If Strife flips scum, then town cannot lose if his partner is farside (or me), since at worst it goes to 2-1 with a living vig- the best case scenario for scum there is to get a townie lynched in endgame, and even then it's a draw. The only possible way for town to lose this game in that scenario is if scum shoot SC and SC shoots a townie.

Which makes me think that, if Strife is scum, shooting Korts is the percentage play. If he's town, the town still can't lose, and has a 50-50 shot at winning. If he's scum, then... well, it's obvious why it's a good move.

[Korts]

Now either Fonz hasn't calculated in the factor that there'll be TWO NKs if SC shoots, and that town will be going into D6 with 1:1 scum:town ratio if SC misses and scum pull off a kill,

OR

he's scum and wants SC to kill me, through this faulty logic. SC, I say that if you shoot tonight, shoot Fonz.

[farside22]

Now either Fonz hasn't calculated in the factor that there'll be TWO NKs if SC shoots, and that town will be going into D6 with 1:1 scum:town ratio if SC misses and scum pull off a kill,

OR

he's scum and wants SC to kill me, through this faulty logic. SC, I say that if you shoot tonight, shoot Fonz.

I think SC should decide between me or Fonz. We both claim vanilla and I don't see a reason to shoot korts.

[The Fonz]

Now either Fonz hasn't calculated in the factor that there'll be TWO NKs if SC shoots, and that town will be going into D6 with 1:1 scum:town ratio if SC misses and scum pull off a kill,

OR

he's scum and wants SC to kill me, through this faulty logic. SC, I say that if you shoot tonight, shoot Fonz.

Wrong on both. I DID factor in the scenario where SC kills Korts and the scum kill another townie? Like I said, that's the worst case scenario, and it ends a draw.

The town cannot lose going 3-1 into night with a doctor and vig alive. Think about it:

Either it goes to 1-1, and the game's over, draw.
Or, you're scum, it's over, town win.
Or, the scum try to kill you too, and it's the same as if he never fired.

Those are all the possibilities if you are shot. None result in even the possibility of a town loss. Therefore, IF he shoots, he should shoot you. (If I were him, I'd probably flip a coin- since if you're town, then scum won't be able to risk not shooting you if there's a chance SC won't, since that would be auto-town win).

I had all this typed out in a massive post with probabilities, and it got lost to a blue screen. Apologies if the above summation wasn't as clear as the full post was, but the logic clearly wasn't flawed.

[Korts]

No need for numbers, I get your point now. Guess I overreacted a bit.

If strife flips scum, we can do much better than a draw. We don't need a potential miskill ruining our chance at a town win.

I definitely say SC should refrain from shooting tonight, and the town will go to D6 2:1, where SC will just have to choose one of two. I think a fifty percent chance at winning is better than a one in three chance (through vig shot) of winning.

[StrangerCoug]

I'm leaning toward The Fonz, but I will hold my fire.

[Korts]

I just reread a couple of farside's most recent posts. I'm second-guessing myself right now. I can see a strife-farside team, with one of them pushing for a doctor-lynch with senseless conviction, while the other protects the claimed doctor from every attack, and never comes around to really doubting him. It would be a very nice plan, indeed. SC, I think this is gonna be hard on you tomorrow...

[Korts]

The more I think of it, the more I'm convinced... Fonz had considered both sides of the stories, while farside always sided with me in the strife-Korts debate.

[The Fonz]

No need for numbers, I get your point now. Guess I overreacted a bit.

If strife flips scum, we can do much better than a draw. We don't need a potential miskill ruining our chance at a town win.

It's probably an 'attitude to risk' thing. I want to ensure there is no chance of losing (first do no harm), you want to make the chance of winning as high as possible.

Plus, of course, the fact that you know your own alignment, so no matter what shooting you won't help you win.

[Korts]

I'm just guessing, but come tomorrow, you'll know my alignment too. Consider these my parting words, I'm going to sleep and possibly not be able to log on before twilight's over.

[strife220]

I'm town.
If Korts is scum, town loses. So the thing to assume here is that the team is Farside/Fonz. SC should vig one of those two and Korts should protect SC. If Korts is telling the truth, we tie (by Fonz's argument). If Korts is scum, we lose. There's no way for us to win at this point.

[StrangerCoug]

Damn it, now I can't decide whether to shoot...

[strife220]

Why would you not shoot? If Korts is scum, we lose whether you shoot or not. If Korts is town, we lose if you don't shoot. Therefore - shoot Farside or Fonz.

[Korts]

Okay, I guess I have to agree with strife here. If he flips town, you obviously will have to shoot one of farside/Fonz for a draw.

[StrangerCoug]

You wouldn't be giving me advice if you were town

[Rogueben]

Vote Count 21

strife220

(3) - {farside22, StrangerCoug, Korts}

Not Voting (2) - {strife220, The Fonz, }

With a majority of votes strife220 is lynched. He was a townie.

The deadline for Night 5 will be the 1st of November at 3AM GMT.

[Rogueben]

You wake up in the morning and realising that again the night has been filled with bloodshed. The body of the town doctor, Korts, was found lying in the main street with most of his head intact. Lying next to him is the body of one of societies lowlife, farside22 found shot through the stomach. She was a goon.

The day passes with little interest, with no one deciding that a lynch was appropriate.

The next night Strangercoug, the towns vigilante, and The Fonz, the Godfather in the mafia kill eachother in a stand off in town central.

Now that everyone else is dead you can finally get some rest.

The game ends with a draw between the mafia and the town.

[farside22]

I can't believe SC shot me instead of Fonz. Not that it matters. Oh well a tie is a tie.
I seriously mean it though. I am never replacing BM again. Terrible.