Open 847 - Trust Fall [Game Over]

[Greeting]

I kinda feel this happened partly thanks to my trust offer which scared the hell out of everyone.

[the worst]

chav/meuh is probably the ideal pair for today

[Meuh]

chav/meuh is probably the ideal pair for today

Yeah that's what we're doing I think!

[the worst]

I kinda feel this happened partly thanks to my trust offer which scared the hell out of everyone.

i think it was influential, but i think for the opposite reason - the kinda chain of [kuriyama <== ydrasse] [ydrasse <== worst] [worst <== greeting] really feels like it's just asserted that town is v close to winning

[the worst]

if i am forced to solve f4 i will be so sad

[Meuh]

I kinda feel this happened partly thanks to my trust offer which scared the hell out of everyone.

it was terrifying

[Meuh]

if i am forced to solve f4 i will be so sad

If Chav isn't town I'll have to rethink the way I perceive everything

[the worst]

ditto. but i think i'm better off just assuming my anxieties are dumb and bad because chav is reaaaaallly probably just town

[the worst]

Spoiler: only open this postgame if chav flipped scum because i'm obviously scum trying to sow discord and this tinfoil will not help town win this game

Okay my head is really doing me in, and the thing that's bugging me is this

Why has nobody trusted Chav today? It's the replacement trio playing footsie with each other which is ... interesting but

scum!Chav was around when HEM gave warning they'd accept Enchant's trust, kept talking back and forth, and basically had every opportunity to accept their own trust before letting HEM/Enchant jump, but did not take that opportunity

I don't see why scum lets that slip

So I'm gonna trust Chav tomorrow morning unless somebody has a really good reason to talk me out of it ... whether Chav accepts or not I'm gonna at least toss a trust this game

this post kind of makes me very slightly wary of a pavowski/chavela scumteam. i do think if chav is scum with pav she has some limited motivation not to leave on d1 (to use her town clout to correct the gamestate so pav isn't stuck poe). i don't really think this onus extends to d2 necessarily, but also chavela never had a chance to leave on d2.

her excitement for accurate trusts has been a little muted compared to the rest of the town core. that being said, you can also explain this away as her being anxious that we have scum in the towncore - which she has multiple times - so shrug.

Why has nobody trusted Chav today?

assuming chav/pav for a moment; i think this is the type of thing which feels like a more clever post than it actually is. it's just a very strange thing to muse about if you're coming from a pov of trying to solve this game.

It's the replacement trio playing footsie with each other which is ... interesting but

i definitely think this kind of sentiment pairs well with what scum!chavela would have been aiming for in this phase, and does more to compromise the town core than it does to help us solve each other.

honestly chavela is almost certainly just town. i just need to get this off my chest in the tiny tiny chance we're being finessed and i have to deal w it tomorrow.
if i'm scum i think this narrative is something i need to almost obligatorily push, so i wouldn't suggest putting all that much stock in it.

[Greeting]

the worst
meuh, chavela*
greeting
pavowski
bugspray


fairly sure the bottom two are just scum
i think chavela is like 0.1% less likely to be town than meuh but it's not meaningful

The groupsolve approach seems to be working.

Maybe it really just is

Pavowski

and

bugspray

? If that's the case, I'm actually feeling bad for them for not getting even a shred of a townread during the whole game. Maybe I missed something, but I don't remember either of them offering or even considering trusting one another as well. Perhaps it would have been wiser to do so since it wouldn't expose either, but it would help them distance themselves from one another as potential partners.

I can't help but notice that there's only one more successful pairing left for us to win. I don't mind staying until endgame in this case.

[the worst]

town has probably already won once chavela/meuh leave. if not, greeting, it's up to you & me to save the world. hope you're ready.

[Meuh]

the worst
meuh, chavela*
greeting
pavowski
bugspray


fairly sure the bottom two are just scum
i think chavela is like 0.1% less likely to be town than meuh but it's not meaningful

The groupsolve approach seems to be working.

Maybe it really just is

Pavowski

and

bugspray

? If that's the case, I'm actually feeling bad for them for not getting even a shred of a townread during the whole game. Maybe I missed something, but I don't remember either of them offering or even considering trusting one another as well. Perhaps it would have been wiser to do so since it wouldn't expose either, but it would help them distance themselves from one another as potential partners.

I can't help but notice that there's only one more successful pairing left for us to win. I don't mind staying until endgame in this case.

A perfect win would be really nice!
Yeah if it is the 2 of them it's a bit sad since they just got shut out from town core completely, although it also makes the trusts on me pretty funny

[chavela]

chav/meuh is probably the ideal pair for today

can you muse a bit about

what if meuh mafia for me please

as you've already done the musing about me

and

i town

[the worst]

i think there's almost a 0% chance scum!meuh doesn't take one of the trusts offered d2

[the worst]

also haven't been pinged by any associatives from pavowski/bugspray but i will do the exercise if she flips scum

i'm loathe to do the full exercise on either a scum!meuh universe or a scum!chavela universe today given i'm already p sure we're about to win

[chavela]

also, both the worst and greeting talked a bit about like

what if i was partnered with pav

and if i was partnered with pav i would have at some point made an effort to get pav out of the game?

if you think i stayed in the game in order to get pav out?

but none of this really actually important

i think mostly probably the worst just doing the what if thing i constantly do even when 95+% on someone

[chavela]

i think there's almost a 0% chance scum!meuh doesn't take one of the trusts offered d2

yeah unless there was like an explicit understanding not to accept

but then who would partner even be

[chavela]

her being anxious

it me

[Meuh]

ugh this is anxiety inducing especially after we got 2 right

chav do you just wanna do it now instead of worrying about it forever? i can't see any other option being better here

[the worst]

i think you would've, yeah. the only real counter-argument i have is that i think you had a LOT of momentum/control on d1, and i think come d2 that control was spread more evenly amongst a handful of players and it would've been significantly harder to get pav out of the game.

i kinda did an exercise of considering who in this game (personality/gameplay wise) would be the most likely to deliberately pass on trusts to ensure their partner was trusted first, and i think first place is tied between you/kuriyama/maybe me. despite both being quite regular i'm not actually sure that we've played together a bunch, so i'm kind of anxious to try and define your limitations & abilities as a scum player. i just know that you're pretty good.

basically yeah there should not be a world where you & meuh don't leave today, but i'm at like 96.8% on you and about 98.7% on meuh and just kind of trying to swallow that ever-present lump in my throat.

[chavela]

ugh this is anxiety inducing especially after we got 2 right

chav do you just wanna do it now instead of worrying about it forever? i can't see any other option being better here

you can offer if you'd like and not worry about

like it's between that and you accepting the worst to me right now i think

and you offering leaves both on the table

but i also want to look over things again to feel more sure

[chavela]

i think you had a LOT of momentum/control on d1, and i think come d2 that control was spread more evenly amongst a handful of players

i mean,

mostly letting the smarter people do the thing and trying not to ruin the game

[Meuh]

ugh this is anxiety inducing especially after we got 2 right

chav do you just wanna do it now instead of worrying about it forever? i can't see any other option being better here

you can offer if you'd like and not worry about

like it's between that and you accepting the worst to me right now i think

and you offering leaves both on the table

but i also want to look over things again to feel more sure

I'll just do nothing for the moment, still leaves both on the table

[the worst]

that's totally reasonable, it's also more likely than any upside-down-distorted-world interpretation of your play that has you as scum imo.

i'm not sure i'm at the point where it's possible for me to become more convinced that you're town.

[chavela]

ugh this is anxiety inducing especially after we got 2 right

chav do you just wanna do it now instead of worrying about it forever? i can't see any other option being better here

you can offer if you'd like and not worry about

like it's between that and you accepting the worst to me right now i think

and you offering leaves both on the table

but i also want to look over things again to feel more sure

I'll just do nothing for the moment, still leaves both on the table

true enough

guess i would like to have some semblance of a plan in place just in case

but it's not as though i can reasonably ask you to help with a plan in case of you being mafia lol