Open 878: Scarfolk Council | The End

[Umlaut]

Vote Count 4.3

This title screenshot is all that remains of ‘Violence On’, a children’s TV programme that ran from 1970 to 1978. Each episode saw the programme’s presenters encouraging children to push classmates out of windows, off high walls or from the saddles of seaside beach donkeys.

Another popular programme called ‘Jail Fix It’ gave children the opportunity to get their injuries treated in a psychiatric prison hospital by high-risk inmates who had to learn first aid as part of their integration back into society.

Each week, the children’s decorated plaster casts (and, occasionally, unsolicited gang tattoos) were displayed in a gallery and a special prize was given to the child that had most amused the judges.

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fireisredsir (2):

Menalque, Cephrir

Ydrasse (2):

fireisredsir, Aureal

Not voting (3):

Dunnstral, Ydrasse, Aisa

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to launch.

Deadline:

(expired on 2023-07-07 20:50:00)

Notes:

• Menalque is on V/LA through Sunday, July 2.
  
• I will be unavailable for the entirety of Wednesday, July 5. If something requires my immediate attention on that day, please PM me.

[Aisa]

Hmm however I could go for fire or Ydra today, with a chance of Dunn if someone makes convincing points

[Umlaut]

Seeking a replacement for Cephrir. (He may keep his slot if he posts before a replacement is found.)

[Cephrir]

ouch

[Cephrir]

im just waiting for aisa to tell me what to do

[Menalque]

so uh actually i think this is a metric ive had a lot of success with. i can't even remember a time that ive misread you (or if i was conflicted, pushed for your lim) when we're both town once it gets into mid/late game

Quoting to facilitate access to page 58 from my phone

[Menalque]

To those who worried the wagon on enchant was too easy yesterday — look how much more difficult the fire wagon is proving to be and there is a more meaningful effort to counterwagon onto skitt

still reading but I think this is an unfair point to make as fire is playing the game while enchant did something other than that

I mean I’m reading fire but idk why you asked me to go back when this… does not look good for you

[Menalque]

I spent the rest of 58->60 looking for egix posts and saw nothing so… I have no idea how this is meant to lead me to ydra!scum when there’s no posts by the slot? Or are you saying sheep posts spew the slot scum?

[Menalque]

FYI for thread I just got to the summer camp I’m working at so… i will be posting when I can but please ping me in specific things I need to see

I still feel like fire is a good vote for reasons previously mentioned, @aisa in particular lmk if you’re leaning elsewhere as you’re my most solid TR

@aureal also ping me if you want me to look at stuff

@ceph I guess if you have a case or specific stuff you think spews aureal scum tell me where to look and I’ll try to

I’m kinda sorry I’m so lazy this game but it’s also been somewhat out of my control and when I have had time to play I just haven’t super been eager to spend it reading back

So while I still think fire is on balance the right play I don’t want to force that through if there’s a good argument for someone else esp given 2 scum world

[Menalque]

I’m not VLAing bc I can prob get on within prod range but consider my overall activity and how much I’m likely to do when online each time to be approx at a VLA level

[Menalque]

Aisa is definitely town, aureal is v likely town by virtue of being the CW, it’s possible ydra is scum who bussed but more likely is that both scum were defending sheep I think

Which makes it fire + (ceph/dunn)

The fact that ceph is trying to angle for a lim on aureal here instead of limming on the CW to sheep makes me think it’s more likely him vs dunn but I need to read them both in ISO to check that

Also while I think fire is the absolute right play for today we shouldn’t rush day

You need a way better reason to clear aureal

Do I? Cause I really think “was on scum wagon while flipped scum was on her wagon” is a pretty strong argument for not killing her

When the scum wagon was pretty heavily town driven, unless you want to argue that both aureal and ydrasse are scum in which case go ahead but it’d better be incredibly compelling

yeah that's not compelling at all sometimes scum lose control of a day and what are they gonna do when that happens, not crossvote and just claim scum?

Are you saying aureal/sheep just shit bussed each other? If so where?

[Cephrir]

@ceph I guess if you have a case or specific stuff you think spews aureal scum tell me where to look and I’ll try to

you may notice i'm not voting her currently

[Cephrir]

Aisa is definitely town, aureal is v likely town by virtue of being the CW, it’s possible ydra is scum who bussed but more likely is that both scum were defending sheep I think

Which makes it fire + (ceph/dunn)

The fact that ceph is trying to angle for a lim on aureal here instead of limming on the CW to sheep makes me think it’s more likely him vs dunn but I need to read them both in ISO to check that

Also while I think fire is the absolute right play for today we shouldn’t rush day

You need a way better reason to clear aureal

Do I? Cause I really think “was on scum wagon while flipped scum was on her wagon” is a pretty strong argument for not killing her

When the scum wagon was pretty heavily town driven, unless you want to argue that both aureal and ydrasse are scum in which case go ahead but it’d better be incredibly compelling

yeah that's not compelling at all sometimes scum lose control of a day and what are they gonna do when that happens, not crossvote and just claim scum?

Are you saying aureal/sheep just shit bussed each other? If so where?

im just saying that i don't think it's impossible they were forced into voting for each other

[Aisa]

I still feel like fire is a good vote for reasons previously mentioned, @aisa in particular lmk if you’re leaning elsewhere as you’re my most solid TR

Yeah I’m leaning fire or Ydra at the moment not sure where the decision’s gonna land

[Aisa]

I think I’m basically at the same point I was a couple days ago, where I feel fairly good that flipping {fire, Ydra, Dunn} ends the game but trying to choose the exact yeet causes much anguish

[Aureal]

FYI for thread I just got to the summer camp I’m working at so… i will be posting when I can but please ping me in specific things I need to see

I still feel like fire is a good vote for reasons previously mentioned, @aisa in particular lmk if you’re leaning elsewhere as you’re my most solid TR

@aureal also ping me if you want me to look at stuff

What do you think of how sheep tries to keep up the fire wagon as pressure starts to come towards him? About here through page 86

viewtopic.php?p=13817258#p13817258

While also claiming that scum don't want it, to boot. Heh.

[fireisredsir]

Ok I skimmed two Dunn games (specifically, mafia: viewtopic.php?t=90967 , town: viewtopic.php?t=91073) and I

think

he looks a little closer to the town game here? I have very low confidence in this conclusion but it is a conclusion nonetheless.

I'd describe the difference between the two games as: in the town game it feels like he has more posts where he is "thinking out loud" or presenting half-baked musings ("I wonder if this means that X is town", "one idea I had was that..."). In the scum game he was (imo) more likely to just state a conclusion ("I think this makes [player] scum").

(Idk what I was expecting but the difference ended up being simpler than I thought.)

I had some sort of epiphany yesterday that allowed me to townlean Dunn. I wish I could remember what the epiphany was

I remembered btw but in hindsight it was not based on much

im sort of losing confidence in my dunn read btw

[fireisredsir]

i think CSF's positioning around enchant is fairly scummy actually in hindsight around post 850 and i think sheep may have kinda noticed and tmi'd it a bit in 875 (and then never really revisited this take)

This seems a bit tinfoil-y, I think 875 is one of those fairly boilerplate posts scum make to justify jumping on a wagon and I don’t think it tells you much about what sheep’s partner must have been thinking or doing at the time

maybe its bc 875 was like one of the key posts that made me townread sheep every time i came back to it, idk

i think it just felt like a really good take and it felt accurate and i was thinking the same thing. didn't feel boilerplate at all to me, it seemed like there was real insight there

and so i was thinking that insight could have come from knowing it was true

i think CSF kinda being hesitant to find enchant scummy in the way she did was lightly scummy bc most of town did find enchant scummy and did find implosion's case convincing. i also think that trying to mostly focus elsewhere and push a different read is where i think scum might try to look busy and position around a town led wagon. i think sheep had the right of it actually in allowing himself to get swept up in the enchant suspicion, because that's what most of town was doing. but i don't think it's a particularly natural or comfortable thing for scum to do. scum often feel that hesitation around that type of situation because they know that it's wrong and it's hard for them to see why town is suspicious of a slot that looks like low hanging fruit to them

[fireisredsir]

To those who worried the wagon on enchant was too easy yesterday — look how much more difficult the fire wagon is proving to be and there is a more meaningful effort to counterwagon onto skitt

still reading but I think this is an unfair point to make as fire is playing the game while enchant did something other than that

I mean I’m reading fire but idk why you asked me to go back when this… does not look good for you

like i said it's mostly about aureal

idc how i look lol

[fireisredsir]

mostly its just a really significant portion of the game where things are loosely starting to shift away from the tvt of me vs skitter and people are opening up to the possibility of limming sheep, murmurings are building from multiple town angles, and it isn't ever really fully shut down until implosion shows back up basically like "ok we're doing fire or skitter"

i think in that time in between, the gamestate was kinda up in the air, and seeing how everyone responded to that shift in the game and how they may have tried in influence it or react to it is really telling

and i think notably ceph and aureal responded in a towny way and then i think egix showed up with one of the scummiest possible reactions to the situation imo

i guess maybe its less significant without knowing my alignment lole but idk just flip me and then look at it afterwards

[fireisredsir]

I think I’m basically at the same point I was a couple days ago, where I feel fairly good that flipping {fire, Ydra, Dunn} ends the game but trying to choose the exact yeet causes much anguish

im probably good with this

[fireisredsir]

i think im dunn > aureal at this point

[Dunnstral]

How are you cool with 2539 then?

[Aisa]

i think CSF's positioning around enchant is fairly scummy actually in hindsight around post 850 and i think sheep may have kinda noticed and tmi'd it a bit in 875 (and then never really revisited this take)

This seems a bit tinfoil-y, I think 875 is one of those fairly boilerplate posts scum make to justify jumping on a wagon and I don’t think it tells you much about what sheep’s partner must have been thinking or doing at the time

maybe its bc 875 was like one of the key posts that made me townread sheep every time i came back to it, idk

i think it just felt like a really good take and it felt accurate and i was thinking the same thing. didn't feel boilerplate at all to me, it seemed like there was real insight there

and so i was thinking that insight could have come from knowing it was true

i think CSF kinda being hesitant to find enchant scummy in the way she did was lightly scummy bc most of town did find enchant scummy and did find implosion's case convincing. i also think that trying to mostly focus elsewhere and push a different read is where i think scum might try to look busy and position around a town led wagon. i think sheep had the right of it actually in allowing himself to get swept up in the enchant suspicion, because that's what most of town was doing. but i don't think it's a particularly natural or comfortable thing for scum to do. scum often feel that hesitation around that type of situation because they know that it's wrong and it's hard for them to see why town is suspicious of a slot that looks like low hanging fruit to them

This is useful context.

I agree that was a good move on sheep's end.

To me "stay off the town miselimination" and "jump on the obvious townie miselimination" are both fairly popular and well-understood scripts for scum. I agree that staying off would be maybe ever so slightly easier psychologically, but town can be off wagon as well ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

[Aisa]

I would kill sheep > aureal, if that's the direction we're going in then I'll stop pushing fire because I think we should only have one more slot claim today at most

I agree with the first bit, but unless you now think that fire v skitter is tvt then I don't see why we shouldn't just stay the course.

ok sorry yea everyone please like read pages 58 to 61 or so

VOTE: ydrasse

mostly its just a really significant portion of the game where things are loosely starting to shift away from the tvt of me vs skitter and people are opening up to the possibility of limming sheep, murmurings are building from multiple town angles, and it isn't ever really fully shut down until implosion shows back up basically like "ok we're doing fire or skitter"

i think in that time in between, the gamestate was kinda up in the air, and seeing how everyone responded to that shift in the game and how they may have tried in influence it or react to it is really telling

and i think notably ceph and aureal responded in a towny way and then i think egix showed up with one of the scummiest possible reactions to the situation imo

i guess maybe its less significant without knowing my alignment lole but idk just flip me and then look at it afterwards

However this has finally sunk in for me and I cannot overemphasise how not-great that one specific Egix post you quoted looks.
I think the first time I saw that Egix post we didn't know sheep was scum so I didn't really care about it
But wow ok, I don't know why it took me so long to see, but that is one heck of a coincidentally-extremely-scummy post if Egix was town