Open 892 | Nomination Mafia | Postgame

[gob]

I'm town everyone.

Someone elab the setup and how it works.

[gob]

And how are each of these slots perceived? Did they nom 3 townies to force a mislim?

[gob]

Hm, why would mafia put up their own aureal in that scenario... kinda weird.

VOTE: Skygazer

I can understand the WIFOM aspect of it though, but it seems to good to be true.

[gob]

Why would I give a reasoning here? It seems pretty simple, I can only vote myself, you or Skygazer. I feel how things went you aren't scum, therefore I vote Skygazer. I also havent really liked a lot of Skygazer's posts since they seem appealy.

[gob]

didn't you misvig me in our last game together?

?? Defcon?

what does that have to do with my current read anyway

[gob]

Sky doesn’t seem to concerned about being voted

[gob]

what do you mean by appealy?

500 is joke
501 is real answer

that whole sequence is appealy. Im not saying its an 100% thing though, you could be caught or not idk but im gonna voter you

[gob]

so you're scumreading me for making a joke?

No? I am voting you because i found those two posts appealy and right now what youre doing is also that.

[gob]

Look i got no dog in this fight. How is it aureal

Elaborate on y its aureal

[gob]

i have no idea what you mean by appealy. who/what am i appealing to?

Appealing to me. Doesnt really matter ive already moved past this read.

Why did things tie yesterday Skygazer?

[gob]

Looks likeonly 2 people on me

[gob]

Why would I give a reasoning here? It seems pretty simple, I can only vote myself, you or Skygazer. I feel how things went you aren't scum, therefore I vote Skygazer. I also havent really liked a lot of Skygazer's posts since they seem appealy.

Well it's not simple if you don't say anything, and if you're actually town still nobody is going to be persuaded to see things your way if you don't explain your view. What exactly do you mean by "how things went" meaning I'm not scum?

because you tied with tacky who flipped town, meaning everyone wants to flip your slot automatically, or at least they should.

So it just seems too convenient, mafia wouldn’t put up their obvious own today unless they were hard bussing you and going for towncred and that clearly ain’t happening

[gob]

Why would I give a reasoning here? It seems pretty simple, I can only vote myself, you or Skygazer. I feel how things went you aren't scum, therefore I vote Skygazer. I also havent really liked a lot of Skygazer's posts since they seem appealy.

Well it's not simple if you don't say anything, and if you're actually town still nobody is going to be persuaded to see things your way if you don't explain your view. What exactly do you mean by "how things went" meaning I'm not scum?

because you tied with tacky who flipped town, meaning everyone wants to flip your slot automatically, or at least they should.

So it just seems too convenient, mafia wouldn’t put up their obvious own today unless they were hard bussing you and going for towncred and that clearly ain’t happening

But your slot was also a leading tied wagon for most of the day? The aureal wagon felt really last minute and there's at least one scum on that wagon.

I disagree with aureal about never seeing anyone role scum and not want to play: I see it a lot, especially in newbies?

Its a totally different context, since today I was put up. Yesterday it was normal mechanics.

Anyway I need people to fill me in.

1. Has anyone claimed?
2. Any night time stuff happen
3. Why oh why did it tie yesterday?

[gob]

Thanks for telling me Aureal.

1. Has anyone claimed
3. Why did it tie yesterday

[gob]

Claimed... What? @_@

Well I guess thats true, nevermind on question 1.

[gob]

Why your slot gotta try to make my brain melt?

I am not trying to do anything like that, but it has happened before.

[gob]

Since when is gob town?

Since i got my role pm

[gob]

I've been thinking Roulette might be scum but I think molla being his partner is more likely than Aureal. I don't really think he's scum with Sky

I would rather fade Aureal over sky here I think. I'm a little busy today but I'll try to check in later and make a final decision

you dont get the final decision

i will also look tho

[gob]

I kinda just want to fade gob here tbh

Yeesh, sorry for towning too hard.

[gob]

Aureal and sky are towning way harder than you imo

? I dont really think Sky is frankly. Aureal is odd. I get the vibe they are town but I am not familiar with their meta.

Do you think I'm scum or do you think im the scummiest of these 3? Cause calling me scum is kinda weird here, I feel like all 3 of us have potential to be town.

[gob]

What is your read on sky?

That they are scum who is being appeal-y and stuff.

[gob]

Okay hm, there really isnt that much time.

I feel like Aureal's posting is very like... abrasive frankly. I do not think Aureal would post like that if Aureal was scum in this scenario.

Skygazer on the otherhand is posting very appeal-y. Even with me they have been very gloves on. I suspect they may just be trying to nice-wolf.

I don't think its impossible both are town though. Today is really the only day mafia could get away with putting up all 3 town and confirming a mislim.

[gob]

Wtf is this terrible interpretation? You must be wolf and you realized I came in hot and now you wanna get me out on the block lol.

You asked me for my READ on sky
I said scum(read)

but I do still think we all have potential to be town, as in, mafia only put up town to force a mislim.

[gob]

gob: the reasoning behind your scum read is wrong, i feel like that's how i am in every game

Well tell me why its Aureal then.

[gob]

I just replaced in, okay? I cant speak for who I replaced, but I am doing what I can to solve the game. Right now I am mainly focused on directly the wagon of today in the best possible direction. There is no real point in talking about something else because we'll have more correct info later.
I mean there is a point if you have something to say, but I really dont besides what I've said.

[gob]

I just replaced in, okay? I cant speak for who I replaced, but I am doing what I can to solve the game. Right now I am mainly focused on directing the wagon of today in the best possible direction. There is no real point in talking about something else because we'll have more correct info later. After night kills, and this current wagon.
I mean there is a point if you have something to say, but I really dont besides what I've said.

[gob]

I guess I am leaning more towards Sky since Black is giving resistance to it.

[gob]

i could go gob i guess. especially if it means i don't die!

You better not. I would quicker go aureal to save myself than you btw.

[gob]

@Aureal
@Skygazer

I have a question for both of you. Bare with me, especially if you find this stupid.

There are 5 cards in front of you.
A jack of hearts
An Ace of Spades
A 5 of hearts
A 8 of club
A Queen of Diamond

Which one do you pick, and why?

[gob]

If you don't want to play my silly game, I will play normally. But my silly game is accurate.

[gob]

i flipped a coin and it landed on 8 of club so i'll go with that

Why did you feel the need to

1. use randomization
2. mention you used randomization

[gob]

Hm

[gob]

It's too late to flashwagon gob, isn't it? The slot has the least solve engery of the three.

??? Seriously? Trust me I know what I am doing.

[gob]

I think Black has been scummy, but people I SR are SRing her, so Idk. I am not entirely sure on you since I feel like you havent voted since its 3 town up and you cant think of a real reason to vote.

I think BBMola is towny, they have the most solvey energy and have been in line with what I've seen from them before.

Thats about it though, everyone else outside that (and aureal and sky) is null.

[gob]

Like, I like about three posts in your iso.

I really don't care if you like my posts or not. I am just gaming, not trying to appeal to your tastes in terms of playing/solving.

[gob]

It's too late to flashwagon gob, isn't it? The slot has the least solve engery of the three.

I might be down for it, if he doesn't explain what's with the cards thing.

It is a mindread type thing. You never answered btw.

[gob]

Actually Bella, you should definitely vote gob if that's what you want, and see who comes for it. No harm done whatever the case, right?

[gob]

You can always ask again. No reason to be hard to work with.

[gob]

Is there a hammer in this game or nah?

[gob]

VOTE: Aureal

[gob]

I've felt Aureal was scummier than Sky for a while now, but I knew it was better if I waited to confirm it.

If im wrong, so be it.

[gob]

VOTE: Bellaphant

[gob]

I re-read the thread a bit.

I still think Bella is likely mafia, and I think her partner is Roulette. I'll just speak freely here since there are no night kills.

I'll go more in-depth and quote stuff later. But generally Black/Bella has a clear wolf in it, and I think its Bella. Her early posts especially are bad, and her EoD1 posts scream TMI (knowledge of both Kitty and Aureals alignments).

[gob]

When you get the chance gob I would like to hear why you think Bella/Roulette are partnered

We know that Day 1, both Kitty and Aureal are town. So in retrospect we know that the mafia had no dog in that fight. So I suspect the 2 mafia are on seperate wagons.
One of Black/Bella is scum 100%. The night kill on kitty was off the wagon of Kitty. Usually scum kill someone who wasnt on the same wagon and them (for reasons).

Roulette I looked at the ISO, and I felt Roulette sits on the fence a bunch, especially at the EoD1. Less of a good read I guess.

[gob]

When you get the chance gob I would like to hear why you think Bella/Roulette are partnered

We know that Day 1, both Kitty and Aureal are town. So in retrospect we know that the mafia had no dog in that fight. So I suspect the 2 mafia are on seperate wagons.
One of Black/Bella is scum 100%. The night kill on kitty was off the wagon of Kitty. Usually scum kill someone who wasnt on the same wagon and them (for reasons).

Roulette I looked at the ISO, and I felt Roulette sits on the fence a bunch, especially at the EoD1. Less of a good read I guess.

Also, what fight? The fight between wagons? I thought aureal was town. In fact, I remember saying that after the nominations, aureal was likely put up as the decoy: I don't like the fact that you are now sring me for...being right? Whilst getting basic stuff wrong about the game, like an imaginary night kill.

NGL, I'm frustrated because I've reached out to you twice and got nothing.

Yea the fight between wagons. They were both town so it really didnt matter which one got limmed Day 1.

To say I'm SRing you for being right is lol. I am SRing you because logically you or Black is mafia. And you are fence sitty, and like you said you thought Aureal was town. Mafia has an easier time defending town they think are towny then actually going out and finding scum.

You being "right" on town means nothing, frankly.

[gob]

@black, you just finished a game with scum!gob, which I have briefly read about twenty pages of. Thoughts?

There is just no way of catching me as scum early on. I'm too good at weaseling my way out of wagons and flipping SRs into TRs.

Just wait until later on in the game, I run out of steam and then I'm easy pickings. Forget my old logic, prone to slipping, etc.

[gob]

When you get the chance gob I would like to hear why you think Bella/Roulette are partnered

We know that Day 1, both Kitty and Aureal are town. So in retrospect we know that the mafia had no dog in that fight. So I suspect the 2 mafia are on seperate wagons.
One of Black/Bella is scum 100%. The night kill on kitty was off the wagon of Kitty. Usually scum kill someone who wasnt on the same wagon and them (for reasons).

Roulette I looked at the ISO, and I felt Roulette sits on the fence a bunch, especially at the EoD1. Less of a good read I guess.

[gob]

No, that's a conclusion. Where's the thought process. Also, there wasn't a nk.

The thought process is that mafia wont all go on one wagon.

using PoE that leaves you or Black. Thats the whole thought process that implies its you two.

Do you think Black is scummy bella?

[gob]

Ok, so it's...nothing else? It's vca and not play based?

I think black/could/ be scum, but right now I think molla's play is scummier. Do you agree? Leave your vca out of it. If molla flips town, I think I look again at black but right now, I'd rather leave her alone because she is providing content, unlike most other people.

Why would I leave VCA out of it? It's an important part of analysis. It's not the only thing obviously.

Molla may be scummy or may not be. However Black/Bella 100% (and i do mean 100%) hits mafia.

[gob]

especially at the EoD1

No?! I have very clear read at EOD1 which is I want to hang you, and that Kitty is very town.

Okay, seems good.

Must we hang Aureal or Kitty?

This read as sitting on the fence between them (which is a bad look) to me.

However there are some other posts like

I do not understand why Aureal was frustrated, she may be mafia for it.

Khaos will be useless constant. Aureal may speak more and we will understand her alignment.

So what you say is true.

[gob]

Because that's still 50/50, gob, so play must come into it somewhere. Or when I flip town, are you going to spend tomorrow just campaigning for black and not reasses?

I agree that its 50/50. Do you agree with my logic Bella? You actually seem pretty receptive to what I am saying.

If you flip town, yes I would go on Black. There are some things that could happen that would put me off Black but most likely I would go black since those things probably wont happen since Black is most likely scum in that scenario.

[gob]

Black jumping off molla's wagon does look shit though.

Sky, where's your head at?

Why is Black jumping off molla's wagon that bad? Seems fine to me.

[gob]

How are votes not play?

[gob]

It's one aspect. I've already said blacks votes are a bit Sus. I'm asking you to now consider play at all, or even the fact that me/black, in your world view, must have a partner.

I am considering that, but you must (and it seems you have, please clarify) that between you/Black there is a maf 99%

I dont feel as hopeless as other people, I think we're pretty close to a solve.

[gob]

UNVOTE: Belaphant

Upon re-reading I do think BBMolla may be scum here. There is a lot of weird stuff, like their progression on Bella.

Black and Skygazer, what do you think as the other two not voting BBmolla?

[gob]

Merlyn's ISO i actually think is towny.

BBMolla there are a TON of townreads, and they all seem pretty hard. I checked Large Normal 244, and BBMolla does sound very confident and tunnel one person (in that game it was flavor leaf, in this one it was aureal). However the amount of townreads and how quickly they were given out is way different.

But I would like to cover the other bases, which is Roulette and Skygazer in that pool. And then Black/Bella who is still very likely 1 mafia between.

[gob]

I guess if its Black/BBmolla the game is that simple but that is lame and boring.

[gob]

I guess if its Black/BBmolla the game is that simple but that is lame and boring.

I'm town, so if you're confident that there's one scum in me/bella, do you think bella makes sense as a molla partner? I'm not really seeing it

Well it is possible the mafia were both on a town wagon day 1, maybe in an effort to make it tie.

Why are you not voting bbmolla if you think they're scummy btw? dont want to end day early or something?

[gob]

Skygazer

[gob]

Don't hammer yet, I'm gonna think again, re-read and then post tonight. After tonight you can hammer though I guess.

[gob]

I don't have much to add today

Kinda curious what gob cooks up here. It's a little weird that he invoked Sky to hammer in 789 and now he wants to look at stuff

Honestly I'm a little too tired / low energy to make a post tonight. I would really like to give the game another look over though. I wasn't trying to get sky to hammer though i just wanted to hear from sky.

[gob]

WHat come on dude.

If BBmolla is scum here im gonna be so disappointment.

[gob]

if we can figure out two townies we win

i'm one of them so that's kind of half the battle

I think you could be mafia here still, since you weren't voting BBmolla. What do you think about that?

It would mean Day 2 you put yourself up and we got pwned but maybe that's what happened.

[gob]

I think we win here but I'll have to wait and hear from everyone.

I'm starting to realize 2 mafia is just 2 easy for town.

[gob]

Okay I think I know who it is almost certainly now. BBMolla's ISO makes it quite obvious.

I'll give everyone time to do their thang, and for mafia to dig their own hole a bit.

When you all are ready to end the game, let me know.

[gob]

Iso says sky/roulette?

Perhaps. I am actually down to argue any point though, basically arguing anyone as the last mafia. At this point the game is just fun for me, because I already know who is mafia, already know how to catch them 100% of the time. I am just waiting because waiting is part of fulfilling the 100% catch rate.

But one person is far easier to argue for than the other. Just looking at BBmolla's ISO and nobody else's.

[gob]

if we can figure out two townies we win

i'm one of them so that's kind of half the battle

I think you could be mafia here still, since you weren't voting BBmolla. What do you think about that?

It would mean Day 2 you put yourself up and we got pwned but maybe that's what happened.

i think that if i were mafia with molla i would have committed to the bus and hammered for the cred instead of twiddling my thumbs second guessing myself. but that's probably not a super compelling argument.

Yes, it kind of comes down to WIFOM. Also I sort of forgot we can't lim you so its a mute point regardless.

[gob]

Realistically it's not you though Skygazer.

Because mafia putting themselves up Day 2 is sort of an unnecessarily WIFOM risk. I also didn't really feel any super desperation from you being sus'd by me and pushed (which i am reading as towny but could be wrong meta wise).

Basically, we simply can't assume either way mafia put all town up or not Day 2. But mafia knows that Town has no way to clear the 2 other people after Day 2's lim (you can lim them, but it's hard to justify continually limming from a pool created by mafia).

BASICALLY (again) what im saying is, mafia would more likely than not put all Town up Day 2. BECAUSE town has no reason to believe mafia wouldn't put themselves up Day 2 since it doesn't matter.


Although as I type this out now I'm not sure. I do think mafia put up all town Day 2, that's just sorta the vibe I got. But realistically the more I think about it, mafia almost ALL the time wants to nominate 1, maybe even 2 mafia Day 2. No fucking joke. That is actually the optimal play.

Because after Day 2, it's hard to justify continually limming from the pool created by mafia. Maybe one person if you felt they were scummy enough, but one person is getting spewed town in that pool. If they're both nominating each other Day 2, then the mafia can distance from each other way more effectively. If the mafia teammates nominate each other Day 4, they can split the votes between each other too if both are viewed as scum.

With all that crap said, I don't think it's you Skygazer. Even though it sort of goes contrary to what an optimal mafia team would do.

[gob]

To clarify (since I don't think it's clear).

I am saying that the MAFIA know that the TOWN do not have any WAY to get INFO on the other TWO people from the DAY 2 wagon. Except for limming one of them Day 3. then Day 4 the last person can be protected (if mafia).

SO

I think SkyGazer isn't mafia, because I don't think Mafia did that play. I think they put up all town since that was safer because BBMolla already had a bit of heat start of Day 2. And they didn't want to jeopardize their last member, their deepest wolf.

[gob]

To clarify (since I don't think it's clear).

I am saying that the MAFIA know that the TOWN do not have any WAY to get INFO on the other TWO people from the DAY 2 wagon. Except for limming one of them Day 3. then Day 4 the last person can be protected (if mafia).

SO

I think SkyGazer isn't mafia, because I don't think Mafia did that play (that being hiding a mafia in the Day 2 nominations). I think they put up all town since that was safer because BBMolla already had a bit of heat start of Day 2. And they didn't want to jeopardize their last member, their deepest wolf.

[gob]

I've actually convinced myself to go (person most likely mafia) -> Skygazer 100% of the time here though.

I won't be outplayed.

[gob]

No kills setups are FUN

[gob]

Gob, respectfully, that was a whole lot of words with a very damp squib.

damp squib?

[gob]

Tbf, even with context, the correct move would've been to vote him forever, as his buddy, which I did, so it's not clearing!

Huh?? What are you saying here?

[gob]

Since she went V/LA i guess there isnt much benefit to me not saying its Black almost 100% of the time here and I can prove it too.

[gob]

BBmolla ISO read along.

TR kittyTacky
TR Khaos (gob)
TR Aureal
Questions Black
Questions Kitty
TRs Bellaphant (says meta is not same as before)
SRs Roulette (doesn't like post)
Null Skygazer
Quetions Black

Day 1 =
TR
KittyTacky
Khaos/Gob
Aureal
Bellaphant

SR
Roulette

Null
Skygazer

No Read
Black



SRs Aureal
TRs Roulette
SRs Aureal
TR Skygazer
SRs Bella (Bella/Aureal atm)
TR Skygazer
TR Gob
Null on Black (#626)
SR Bella (658)

Day 2 =
TR
Roulette
Skygazer
Gob

SR
Aureal
Bella

Null
Black


SR Black (680)
Votes Bella

Day 3 =

SR
Black
Bella (via voting)


========

Conclusion: BBMolla is partners with Black. Unlike every other player Day 1, BBMolla never gave a read on Black. Not even a null read. Day 2 they null black. Day 3 they SR Black.

If it's not black then it would be Bellaphant here, btw. But almost certainly Black given both maf wont hop on the same wagon day 1 in a tie scenario.

[gob]

Since she went V/LA i guess there isnt much benefit to me not saying its Black almost 100% of the time here and I can prove it too.

Why would you wait until I'm V/LA to push this?

I don't think your case implicates me any more than it does Roulette or Bella

I wasnt waiting for you to V/LA but I was waiting to see what you said.

but if you arent gonna be around that isnt helpful and becomes a waste of time

[gob]

Since she went V/LA i guess there isnt much benefit to me not saying its Black almost 100% of the time here and I can prove it too.

Why would you wait until I'm V/LA to push this?

I don't think your case implicates me any more than it does Roulette or Bella

You dont thinK BBmolla who was throwing out townreads left and right, who didnt even comment on your alignment Day 1, implicates you more than the others?

I am still open to being wrong here btw. But i think BBmolla spewed you too heavily. If BBmolla ever hard defended their partner day 1 on the basis of meta (which bb did for Bella Day 1) i am willing to listen though.

[gob]

I am down with flu but I will look at past mafia games of Molla in a few days

You only need to look if BB defends partner day 1, and how BB defends that.

Frankly though, I think it's more likely BBMolla doesn't interact much with his partners. It's just a big level of difference between how BBMolla gave everyone a read Day 1, except for Black. He only asked black one weak question early iirc.

BBmolla also always had Black in a PoE when he SR'd her eventually Day 3. The PoE went Aureal/Bella -> Black/Bella

It's a massive difference between how BBMolla interacted with every other slot compared to Black. Every other slot BB was more than willing to give a read on Day 1, even if it was to openly state a null read like with Skygazer.

[gob]

Yeah, again, I don't think you are talking with the full context: you were 50/50 between the both and jumped off the wagon when it looked critical.

The only thing stopping me voting you is if you flip town, I dunno if gobs still in this '50/50 black and bella' vibe

i havent thought too much about it (because im so confident its black i dont want to waste my time convincing myself its townies)

But idk why this matters.

[gob]

if its not black it could be you yea

i would rethink in that scenario obviously but i probably go Sky > you

[gob]

Unfortunately it doesnt matter how you interacted with BB, black.

His own actions heavily imply its you. He is the type of scum to throw out townreads quickly and easily.

Even if we want to say his Day 1 play doesnt totally implicate you, it still heavily suggests you PoE wise.

[gob]

So you are fine going today, Black?

I think we get Sky tomorrow if its not you regardless. I really didn't feel like Sky was scum the way he played Day 2, but I could've just been outplayed there.

[gob]

So you are fine going today, Black?

I think we get Sky tomorrow if its not you regardless. I really didn't feel like Sky was scum the way he played Day 2, but I could've just been outplayed there.

This doesn't track with your previous stance. Why would you not flip bella after I flip town?

Are you fine with going today, Black?

And I am split between Sky and Bella right now. As who to lim tomorrow. Wagon analysis wise Bella does look worse than Sky, but I feel like she's been towny past two days.
But I'll figure it out tomorrow if necessary, I really don't think it goes to that point.

[gob]

You don't have room for error to fade sky here. It has to be me, bella, and Roulette if you are actually town. Low key not liking this take from you

I am not saying we lim Sky here lol. I am talking about tomorrow if need be.

You are clearly the lim here today.

[gob]

Are you fine with going today, Black?

Only if you promise to go bella and Roulette after me. I don't think it's sky

I promise to look at the game and make my best judgement, whatever that may be. I think it's just you here though, so I am just making sure you are okay to be limmed.

I dont really think it's bella though. I think BBmolla's scum partner is in you/Roulette/Sky in that order. Bella is still possible from the wagon analysis standpoint obviously, but the way BBmolla read her compared to others, it just doesn't come off as scum townreading their own scum partner. BBmola's day 1 seemed to be him trying to be as honest/towny as possible and that led to him interacting with you the least and giving out town reads to everyone except you/Roulette/Sky. (Roulette was an SR day 1, Sky was a null day 1).

[gob]

I'm starting to wonder if Bella is just town. If so y'all may want to reconsider gob tomorrow. This sudden hedginess doesn't feel good and it seems like gob is trying to keep the PoE wide open to prepare for endgame

Not really, I am just considering all options openly. I am not going to convince myself it's someone else because I was already suspecting you before BBmolla's flip, and afterwards BBmolla's ISO really implicates you. You've said it doesn't (even though you previously said it was a good theory), but that's about it. Other than that you haven't really shown me why Roulette could be scum here, and now you're calling Bella town.

I still need to make sure you are okay with being limmed here, though. I can't tell if you are down or not.

I promise to look at the game and make my best judgement, whatever that may be. I think it's just you here though, so I am just making sure you are okay to be limmed

Why would it matter if I'm ok being faded? I'm not going to self vote. If the rest of the game wants me gone then it'll happen but I'm going to make sure I've left enough information for the game to be solved if that's the route we take

Just checking.

[gob]

If gob is scum here I think it makes sense for him to push me in conjunction with him backing off his "one scum in Black/Bella 100%" stance. If he goes Black > Bella and we both flip town then Roulette and Sky just fade him in ELO

I'm not backing off anything. I am saying you are the scum here, lol.

I am willing to go Roulette tomorrow, but I am so convinced it's you Black.

[gob]

I'll tell you all what.

Give me my vanity wagon on Black today, since I am very confident. If I'm wrong, i'll vote whoever you all want blindly tomorrow, no questions asked.

[gob]

You got me

[gob]

hi gob are you town

I’m at Bella/Aureal atm

Sky and Gob both seem town

These are the only two times molla mentions gob and they have zero interactions outside of this

What about with my slot as a whole? I think you're being a bit unfair here, but I think I know why.

If you are town here, then I would explain why its Roulette.

[gob]

745 is just bad.

Excuse me?

[gob]

Yea my thoughts and stuff change. I originally wasn't feeling Roulette at all but it seems others find him scummy (except Black now) so I am open to going for him. Especially because I felt Skygazer's recent posts are more towny than not, further making me not want to vote them. Bella just doesn't seem like mafia since there are no actual plays being made by her from what I can see.

I think it's just Black. But like I said before, if I'm wrong I will just shut my mouth and go along with what people want tomorrow.

[gob]

I wasn't looking at Molla at all originally. I was focused on you/Black since you are the 2 people leftover from the Day 1 lim on Kitty.

However I went back and read and yea he did seem clearly scummy to me. Thats why I said it all.

I will admit, I have been a little all over the place today but that's only because I think it's Black here for sure. So to a certain extent I've stopped trying all that hard.

[gob]

I'm fine with that, lim Black and I'll go tomorrow.

Because the game ends with Black.

[gob]

You can't just quote a bunch of shit and say "that's not real" btw, especially when it literally is real.

You can say it's not, but it is real.

[gob]

You can't just quote a bunch of shit and say "that's not real" btw, especially when it literally is real.

You can say it's not, but it is real.

Scum don't have real solving thoughts because they're not trying to solve. They are fabricated thoughts to push your agenda

To say I'm not solving is ludicrous, frankly. You can go back and see how I progressed on people like molla.
Anyway it doesn't seem to progressive going back and forth with you.

I think what I said before about how BBMolla interacted with your slot is pretty air tight. I guess i can repeat it all if people want me to. but it doesnt seem like anyone has even really interacted with my case in any meaningful way.

[gob]

Do you actually think scum are more likely to ignore their partner as opposed to townread or bus them? I haven't done that in any of my scum games and I haven't seen you do it in any of yours. This just feels like a thought to push your agenda

Yes absolutely, I think the way BBMolla was so willing to give reads on LITERALLY EVERY PLAYER except you does implicate you. I often ignore my partner too, since you can usually get away with it.

I dont think you can call it a push of any agenda. Objectively BBMolla treated you differently than everyone Day 1. Maybe I am just blowing smoke and it's nothing, but giving how careless BBmolla was with giving reads Day 1, I find the fact only you didn't receive one to be extremely pinging.

There is other stuff you've done today I've found scummy, like when you said me and Sky were scummy for not being put up. I thought that was a little weird and needed more explanation. But I my main point on you is BBmolla's interaction with your slot.

[gob]

And it's not like you guys didn't try to bus each other later. So that point is mute.

BBmolla's read progression on you was no comment -> null -> scumread (always keeping you in a pool though).

I would appreciate some actual interaction with my case on Black by someone besides Black.

[gob]

i feel like that's kind of a stretch if you look at merlyn's posting up to 77

Whats kind of a stretch? My theory?

[gob]

Black, if I am wrong I am going to feel embarrassed more than anything.

So if it's not you, and its also not me, who would it be from your point of view?

I personally think Black -> Bella -> Sky wins 100% of the time. Bella to cover all of Kitty wagon Day 1, and Skygazer to cover the mafia hiding one of their own in the Day 2 pool.
But I also don't think I personally can live through 2 more cycles if I am wrong on you Black, so if you are actually town tell me where to look.


But you are going today, so if you're mafia and dont wanna waste time/effort you can just give up.

[gob]

If it's not you then it's probably Roulette. Maybe sky as a deep wolf. I don't really think it's bella anymore

Why Roulette and Sky?

And why not Bella (probably more important).

[gob]

VOTE: Black

[gob]

Let us start getting ready for EoD everyone

[gob]

If im wrong here im gonna lose it

[gob]

Please fade gob tomorrow

Cant tell if youre town who has given up or maf who has given up.

Either way I will listen to you on Roulette whatever you say. I sort of feel similar about Bella to you i think.

[gob]

If its not you I’m not gonna let people lim me. But i will listen to people more than i usually do lol.

[gob]

If its not you I’m not gonna let people lim me. But i will listen to people more than i usually do lol.

This cannot make it to ELO

Why not? Seriously

[gob]

aim not trying to bury you here if anything the opposite.

You are dying but on the way out if youre town you could do more than this. It just makes me feel like youre scum giving up, frankly.

I apologize if you’re town, i really do.

[gob]

Because I think it's obvious you are scum here. The contradictions in 905 don't come from town

Pedit: What more do you want me to do? I'm pretty convinced it's you and I've given the alternatives if it's not. I think I've set town up to when even after I'm gone. You just want me to do more because you don't like that my conclusion ensures you're faded tomorrow

Well yea basically. Cause i am town so if you are town and your conclusion is I get faded tomorrow, that is the losing play. So obviously I cannot accept that.

I do agree i contradicted myself. I was mainly trying to get everyone to agree on limming you today above all else, so I didnt really have a set future plan for the next days. However, i have settled upon Bella -> Skygazer if its not you here. I will go back and look more at Roulette if its not you too.

Realistically i would go Black -> Bella -> Sky/Roulette

If i am to die at some point, just because everyone thinks im scummy or something, then I would say lim Bella with the last lim after me.

[gob]

And the reason Bella > Sky/Roulette is that I find the wagon analysis line of reasoning to be better than the Skygazer paranoia kill.

[gob]

I think BBmolla's scum partner is in you/Roulette/Sky in that order.

So this was just a lie or what?

No but it’s like this

I find Bella to be towny tone wise. However I know that the wagon analysis line of reasoning is better than my own personal reads of people.

Sky i also find their tone towny, especially on Day 2 where they were pretty close to dying. But again I could be wrong and I know that it is in mafia’s best interest to hide 1-2 scum in the day 2 noms.

So i am trying to cover each situation

[gob]

The more you hedge on me the worse I feel. The wagon thing is still silly. It was silly day two and it's silly now.

Okay and I get that if youre town. However the wagon analysis is not silly and was never silly.

You are arguing that both mafia were on the same wagon (not Kitty) Day 1. I find that unlikely given the wagon tied. Why would mafia put 2 people on wagon just to tie? Its much safer and easier to hedge between the two wagons.


So Bella, please understand what I am saying before you accuse me of doing something silly.

[gob]

I understand that, but it's one element. I know I'm town, so I need to know you are relying on something other than that one fact: if black is scum, yay, you got it right, but if she isn't, you are wrong and it just /is/ like that, however unlikely. I don't want to be in a situation tomorrow where it's not black, and you won't look at roulette (I don't really think it's sky). I'm just trying to avoid an elo from hell (although tbf if black is town, I'm not gonna say I won't be looking at your slot primarily for the last scum, because to me the 'roman empire/wagon analysis' is how bad you both handled molla

I'm gonna look at Roulette regardless if Black is not mafia. I'm not really clearing anyone. But I want to make it clear that my current mind-set is Black -> Bella -> Skygazer wins the game 100%. I will look at Roulette again though, obviously. I am too paranoid to not do that.

FTR, I do think Roulette has scum-equity with BBmolla, depending on how you want to read BBmolla's read on Roulette throughout the game (SR Day 1 -> TR Day 2). But as of right now I think the ignoring of Black from BBmolla is way more pinging. Then there is how BBmolla interacted with you, giving you a strong TR day 1 based on meta. It's totally possible BBmolla snuck their mafia partner in a TR, but given that he quickly TR'd a lot of people (because he was informed) I view that as town. Then he nulled Skygazer, which pings me in theory but the way it was done in practice makes me feel differently. There is also the whole Day 2 stuff with Skygazer.

But if Black flips green, Sky will be the person I'm most paranoid about, because we could've gotten them Day 2. But I still think I can figure it out in that scenario.

I don't really think we are headed for an ELO from hell because we're going off some hard stuff. Like the Day 1 wagons. Those are locked in stone and if we can figure out how the mafia voted (together or not together) we can reverse engineer the team from that alone.

[gob]

I have one more thing I can look at from BBmolla actually.

[gob]

There are 2 ways I see mafia distance a lot.

1. Quick vote on partner (either in RVS or right out of RVS)
2. Ignore

I am going to look through everyone's ISO's and see who voted BBMolla, and if so, when.

[gob]

You know what, maybe I was wrong.

@Black

Get in here. I think I may have been wrong. Part of me wanted to dethrone the scum queen but you may just not be scum here.

[gob]

Me and my big mouth might've lost town the game. But now me and my big mouth are the only way to save the game too.

[gob]

Well I guess it doesn't matter since we can't lim Skygazer today, but looking back Skygazer looks worse than anyone else in regards to engaging with BBmolla.

It's true that BBmolla didn't read Black at ALL day 1 (and that is why we still lim Black today) but Skygazer RARELY even talked about BBmolla.

Bella ISO: 'molla' = 35 matches in 124 posts + 9 (really only 2) with 'Merlyn' [Bella didn't interact with Merlyn at all basically, but they did interact with molla a lot, so that's probably nothing).
Black ISO: 'molla' = 83 matches in 188 posts + 28 with 'Merlyn' (heavy interaction with Merlyn early)
Skygazer ISO: 'molla' = 14 matches in 136 posts + 9 with 'Merlyn' (only 1 interaction with Merlyn)
Roulette ISO: 'molla' = 41 matches in 121 posts + 17 with 'Merlyn" (interaction with merlyn early)

And if we look closer at Skygazer's posts, a lot of his interactions with BBmolla seem fishy.

Also, before I get into Skygazer's posts, I want to say that Roulette's interactions with molla feel SUPER towny. It's possible he just wolfed well here but stuff like #375 #378 #382 #563 and some others seem like TvS.

Anyway, onto Skygazer.

my yolo solve right now is aureal/black or molla/?

Without mentioning molla or interacting with molla (or Merlyn) Skygazer has him as a yolo solve INDEPENDENTLY scummy (Aureal/Black hinges on them being a team)

"unexplained"

okay here's an explanation. molla came in scum reading you which caused me to reconsider my read on you. reconsidering made me realize i should be scumreading you, for reasons i have already shared multiple times

Molla's scum read on Aureal caused him to SR aureal. Notice the wording here btw, "I should be scumreading you" not "I am scumreading you" it's a very odd way of phrasing it. (I will say though, I could see Town!Sky SRing Aureal because of Molla here, even if Molla was a SR, but the phrasing I find icky).

aight guess itll probably be me tonight.

gob, bella and black probably town? i feel like scum team is aureal/roulette or molla/roulette. large room for error. most confident on roulette.

i think after today roulette -> aureal -> molla probably wins the game

This one obviously looks the worst. Putting the wolf last in PoE is a classic tell.

==

TL;DR

I probably fucked up Day 2 big time, and it's Skygazer here, not Black. Nevertheless, we vote Black here today. Then tomorrow I freak out and stress over it all over again, but as of right now it looks like Skygazer.

And you know what?

@Roulette
@Bella

I'm LOCKING this in. Because I don't want you guys to lose faith in me (especially you Bella) since I need to make sure I don't get voted off here for being wrong. So I am prepared to LOCK my answers in.

Black -> Skygazer.

Also, talking about this at all is probably a misplay since it encourages Skygazer (who btw is being extremely fence sitty today, and was yesterday) to get ready to mislim me with the help of Bella and Roulette. So Roulette, Skygazer, Black, Bella. Whichever 3 of you are town, please be nice to me because I'll feel like sin if we lose here.

[gob]

Agh, maybe not though?? Like, okay, you must see my thought process on gob - content today is fine. He makes content with contradictions today though I do not think contradictions make him scummy. The way gob makes Sky hang follow after Black hang is scummy. Khaos being nominated points to gob town but his stuff about Molla is so mafia.

??? How is my stuff about Molla "so mafia" ??

I am starting to think that Sky is scum here and Black is town. I am trying to SOLVE the game here.

[gob]

Eh. gob is a deeply overconfident man but a town nonetheless.

Like I say, I have the highest self esteem and the lowest self confidence.

[gob]

960 seems like a post scum would make if they know someone is about to flip town imminently

How so? That post was made because I dont like burying people, no matter how sure i am.

Furthermore if Black is actually town it makes more sense for me to get them to “work” for me before they die, giving their PoV and stuff.

[gob]

Roulettes probably just town here, right?

I plan on meta’ing BBmolla so I will have some sort of info on this. I think if BBmolla SRs his partners in similar ways, its possible Roulette is mafia. But otherwise we can clear Roulette. Since Roulette’s posts against Merlyn and Bbmolla look good.

[gob]

The way gob makes Sky hang follow after Black hang is scummy.

this is why i snap unvoted

960 seems like a post scum would make if they know someone is about to flip town imminently

Yeah I'm feeling this, and now gob is backtracking on the solve he was so convinced about in order to save face

Flip me and then flip gob. I don't see how it's not just gg after that

Because im Town!

Yes I am backtracking that I was so convinced on. What is so scummy about that? seriously use your fucking head.

[gob]

UNVOTE: Black

Gonna freak out some nore then ill be done, promise

[gob]

Yes tht is a good plan from me.

When everyone is convinced Day 2 had all town, I, the mafia, would come in and tell everyone that mafia would optimally put one of their own on Day 2.

Blowing what cover I may have had.

I am keeping my options open because I think you are more likely mafia than Black based on everything so far. Could be wrong of course but whatever youre trying to say im doing scummy isnt it.

[gob]

Ive had so much fun though regardless of the outcome. These no kill setups are so comfy and fun.

[gob]

The way gob makes Sky hang follow after Black hang is scummy.

this is why i snap unvoted

960 seems like a post scum would make if they know someone is about to flip town imminently

Yeah I'm feeling this, and now gob is backtracking on the solve he was so convinced about in order to save face

Flip me and then flip gob. I don't see how it's not just gg after that

Because im Town!

Yes I am backtracking that I was so convinced on. What is so scummy about that? seriously use your fucking head.

Feels weird from the guy who didn't like his theory called silly

How is that weird? Someone calling my work ‘silly’ is obviously gonna feel bad. It wasnt silly anyway, it all made sense and is still valid. May not be correct but I didn’t just make something up

[gob]

Starting to think maybe it could be sky instead of gob, but I'm not convinced

Meh

I'm pretty sure it's not Roulette or bella though so as long as we go me --> gob --> sky, town should win

Its not me so be careful about dragging my name through the mud. Because i need to convince the other town to actually vote with me, despite me being wrong and backtracking.

I feel like we should lim Bella over you here Black BUT ONLY BECAUSE i do not trust Bella to vote with me, frankly. You Black i trust enough.

Probably gonna get flack for saying that but yea.

[gob]

Its not me so we cannot do the whole “whoever is next scummy” type of deal.

You can solve for me obviously but it should actually have something there. Rather than just saying i am scummier than Sky so i gotta go.

[gob]

I cant even get upset at Town because this was my bad here backtracking as much as I did. I shouldve kept my mouth shut and solved for longer.

But again I am town, my stuff I stand by, my logic. And i really want to win this game whicu is why I keep making posts even when theyre not that great.

[gob]

Black, want to talk about the game with me and theorize? Basically treat this shit a job with me for a bit.

I want to go over Skygazer, Bella and Roulette with you. Since you are most likely still dying here (it could only otherwise be Roulette) if you flip town then your words will hold a lot of weight.

I am going to look at how molla treats his partners in past games. I also will probably meta everyone else in the game a bit cause why not


Anyone else is also welcome to join in and come solve with me. This shit is my life and it's more important than my job.

[gob]

Okay, I will just look at everything and write up. I would appreciate your feedback on it. I'll try to make it all brief.


Also, where does everyone themselves stand on Black right now? I think everyone needs to make their stances clear right now.
@Bellaphant (reminds me of Aliphant)
@Roulette (you especially. If you're town you're potential Mislim bait especially after I die. You need to speak up asap).
@Skygazer (I think you are the mafia and I messed up Day 2. If I am wrong there then please scream at me. You don't seem like the type to get upset though, especially if you are mafia here. So Idk)

[gob]

Okay time to do the thing except right this time.

[gob]

first a weed break

I'm in the trenches rn. It's probably the drugs but this is some of the most fun i've had in a while.

[gob]

Okay. I need to sleep. I did read some old stuff but it was too conf-biasy to be useful to say.

I will say this though. I went back and looked at Skygazer's old games and he does keep his scumbuddies in his scumreads constantly. I find his molla read this game to be weird. It sort of comes out of nowhere. Furthermore, it is against molla alone. And then later on he obviously didn't vote him.

There was also this instance

my yolo solve right now is aureal/black or molla/?

"unexplained"

okay here's an explanation. molla came in scum reading you which caused me to reconsider my read on you. reconsidering made me realize i should be scumreading you, for reasons i have already shared multiple times

I just find it weird considering Sky already had molla as independently scummy.



I also looked at some old Bellaphant games but they werent that useful.

If anyone can please

link me the most current archives. Like the Open games and stuff. I am bad at this stuff.

And everyone... PLEASE BE READY To switch your vote. I will try to figure everything out by the time there is around 3-4 hours left in the day... And if you hammer early im gonna be angry at you. Even if we end up winning somehow.

[gob]

I spend like 3+ hours reading but im so inefficient it's really like 30 minutes of work.

[gob]

Black is the best lim here either way, I believe

If i said I wanted to lim you.................................................................... what would you say. Also what about Roulette

[gob]

Roulette you still reading?

[gob]

I kinda have zero motivation to figure out if it's gob or sky here. We win as long as it's not bella or Roulette and I think everyone agrees it's probably not them, so let's go me --> sky --> gob and that's probably just gg

The thing is……. I am not sold on Roulette or Bella being clear. Well whatever idk why im telling you its not that important.

I do agree i think you -> sky wins most likely. but the fact you say that at all makes me think youre town and this is pointless. If not that then I would probably go Bella, but im not confident in it.



oh well just a game just a game

[gob]

there's a distinct lack of panic in this game state right now which makes me think scum are comfy which points towards roulette or bella imo

i think gob is probably just town

The only people i see comfy are you roulette and bella.

[gob]

i am frustrated

[gob]

The person who seems the least towny to me right now is Roulette. Bella i also find weird with the sky shade just now…… but again idk why Bella goes out her way to shade Sky here as scum.

Given everything, given everything. I just don’t know.

How sure was everyone on Black before? After i made my case. It remember Roulette and Sky agreeing with it straight up. IIRC.

I am wondering if scum!black would be able to stay cool in that scenario.


Once i get home ill look into stuff more and make my decision. I am feeing hella sad all of a sudden.

[gob]

Yes i would be down to lim Roulette on the basis he’s solved the least today.

What does everyone think about that?

[gob]

nobody hammer pls

[gob]

Bella is strange today.

Also what is this about?

Today we do not consider Bella.

Elaborate on why? Elaborate on all your reads real quick

[gob]

Bella is strange today.

Also what is this about?

Today we do not consider Bella.

Elaborate on why? Elaborate on all your reads real quick

You are town because of the Khaos nomination... Bella is likely town because of her interaction with Molla, I strongly townread Skygazer earlier and I still do. This leaves Black.

I sort of want to vote Bella today. I am currently comparing her game here to a past town game and it's different. She is less serious and more jokey this game. A lot of her questions seem 'easier' too. I am comparing to Open 887 btw.

Why do you townread Skygazer? Do you have any sort of mechanical reasoning like you do on my slot?

[gob]

i can do this if i really try

[gob]

Honestly I am between Black and Bella for sure now.

Leaning Bellaphant VOTE: Bellaphant

There are certain things comparing Bella's games. She likes to engage with her partners and ask them questions out of the blue. Compare viewtopic.php?p=13687521#p13687521 and in this game viewtopic.php?p=13981456#p13981456

There are multiple instances of small similarities like this, not just this one example. I also do not really like Bella's first post in the game. Giving a reason or explanation even when the situation doesn't call for it is usually a mafia sign.

But with this said, im just sort of feeling this out right now. I'm not married to the vote. Black is still okay I guess even though I feel like Black is town, I am still scared of her omega-wolfing me.

[gob]

I'm at the point where im so deep into my own theories and thoughts that reading more meta isn't helpful.

[gob]

I have basically the same solve as kittytacky atm

VOTE: Aureal

I think I'd rather do this over Bellaphant, just cause I've seen scum Bella and this doesn't look the same. scum-Bella looks really pro-town lmfao

Hm, this actually is an interesting post though in retrospect. In post 333 Kitty (who BB loudly TRs, he also flipped his sus-ness on Aureal just before) votes Bellaphant

who had no votes at the time

and in response BBmolla says

he basically agrees with kitty's solve

but chooses Aureal over Bella. In my catchup post for BBmolla, I quoted this as a TR for Bella from BBmolla, but at closer inspection it's more flimsy.
This is also a few posts after BBmolla changed his tune on Aureal.

okay nvm aureal decided to be useful like four pages ago

[gob]

i think the way bella approached me today was weird but i dont see what scum-bella gets out of that? seems more paranoia/distrust-driven than scum-driven

Did you feel Bella approached you in a way to try and setup future mislims?

[gob]

I've thought more about it. I feel like it's between Roulette and Bella. Those are the two people I don't feel the best about so I am okay with either dying today. I've tried to give everyone a look over and a fair shake.

Bella's interactions with Molla and even Merlyn look weird and some things ring true to her scum game meta, and compared to her past town game she is really posting at a different pace. BUT i know this can all probably be logically explained away.

I have a harder time believing its Roulette because the way he has played. Stuff like him having me as town still because of the Khaos stuff. He's mentioned that multiple times now, he keeps coming back to the same logic. I find that pretty towny. Although he hasn't done much solving or progressing today.

So I lean Bellaphant.

[gob]

Oh yes, and I forgot to add.

I do think it's possible Roulette is the mafia here and just misplayed not knowing. (I also think Sky could've done that Day 2). But I wouldn't lim on that possibility today.
Black could've also not been scared from my pushes because it was early in Day 4 and outplayed me. There is a lot that could've happened here and I cannot account for all of it.

[gob]

@black
@skygazer
@roulette
@bellaphant

Everyone i think we go Bellaphant here today.

[gob]

3 hours and 23 minutes.

Anyone want to chatter it up?

[gob]

Guess not

VOTE: Roulette

Just because I don't think it is worth voting Black and randing.

[gob]

Gobs last minute panic reads fake.

Was definitely a lot longer than a minute

[gob]

Roulette,

Vanilla Townie

, was eliminated.

Spoiler: Vanilla Townie

Salutations, you are a

Vanilla Townie

!

Personal Abilities:

• You have no special abilities.

Win Condition:

• You win if all threats to the
  Town
  are deceased and at least one
  Town
  -aligned player remains.

Confirm by replying to this PM with a summary of your role.

Saw that coming

Then why did you vote??

Either way i think we go sky/bella today. I am leaning Bella but will go and look more

[gob]

Roulette,

Vanilla Townie

, was eliminated.

Spoiler: Vanilla Townie

Salutations, you are a

Vanilla Townie

!

Personal Abilities:

• You have no special abilities.

Win Condition:

• You win if all threats to the
  Town
  are deceased and at least one
  Town
  -aligned player remains.

Confirm by replying to this PM with a summary of your role.

Saw that coming

Then why did you vote??

Either way i think we go sky/bella today. I am leaning Bella but will go and look more

Because I had to?

We couldve voted Bella. Its water under the bridge thoever.

[gob]

ya if youre mafia black i saved your ass in a major way and kept your loseless streak alive.

So jf youre mafia at least make this unpainful

[gob]

Gob are you trying to pocket me

Yes but only if youre mafia.

[gob]

I want to go Bella -> Sky

Willing to talk about it all.

[gob]

I just am conflicted, black. My gut tells me it's gob, my brain says you and my tin hat says sky.

If I'm the lim today and it makes tomorrow easier for not!me, I'm fine with it?

seems like you are scum here then

[gob]

Scum who just volunteered to be the lim?

You are volunteering to be lim?

[gob]

Scum who just volunteered to be the lim?

In regards to this I do think it makes more sense for scum to not nominate themselves there, though I think they could have done it and then tried the whole wifom thing

This was one of the biggest reasons I didn't think it could be you, plus all the interactions with molla that felt unintuitive as S/S

So it has to be Skygazer, if what you say is true. And scum nominated Day 2 and we (i) just missed.

I still feel like it's Bella though. What interactions made you think it wasn't S/S ? I felt like it was pretty along the lines of Bella's Scumgame the way she interacted with both Merlyn and molla, if bella is scum. Especially on the first day.

[gob]

No, I mean now: if you think I'll fuck up lylo, I'll willingly eat the lim

P-edit go read my newbie game with molla where we both scum and then come back to me. Go on

Can you link it? I will gladly read any meta.

You could totally be town here btw, and it's Skygazer instead. But I am just saying stuff makes me want to vote you.

[gob]

I don't really disagree with anything. Stuff like 428 also pinged me when I read it.

I guess if Bella and Sky want to link me their scum games, I can go in depth on them. I have a few new angles I want to attack it from.

I also feel better about you Black, just because of how things went down yesterday. I won't lie I still worry you are mafia, but the way stuff went yesterday it's hard to believe. Still possible though.

[gob]

Well it seems like we go Sky here. Then tomorrow we can go either Bella or Black. I would super stress for that because they're in the same lim pool, but I Actually think the odds are good that way.

[gob]

but the way stuff went yesterday it's hard to believe

What exactly went down that makes it hard to believe I'm scum?

You were okay limming yourself -> into me. Which you wouldn't do as scum.

Well it seems like we go Sky here. Then tomorrow we can go either Bella or Black. I would super stress for that because they're in the same lim pool, but I Actually think the odds are good that way.

Why sky if you think it's bella?

Cause Bella is also saying they're okay to be limmed here. Skygazer is the only one who hasn't really said anything. Also objectively I think he's taken the least stances the past 2 days, although anyone can correct me on that. It seems like he's sitting back and letting people drive stuff. There was also the whole not voting molla stuff.

But I'm more sure of Bella because it fits in line more with the voting analysis stuff. But like I've said before here, the wagons were tied and the mafia has good reason to tie the wagons. I have been going by the idea that mafia would vote on separate wagons day 1, and just coast on both since both were town.

I do still think Bella has been in line with her scumgame too. But again, idk, if she's saying she's fine to go then that leaves Skygazer. Maybe she is just saying it to trick me here lol.

[gob]

@gob

here are my scum ganes from this year (minus a multiball game that i lurked and got crosskilled n1)
viewtopic.php?t=90580
viewtopic.php?t=90886
viewtopic.php?t=91760

Thank you. I will read these probably this weekend. I am a little worn out from the past two days.

Although I am wondering what you think about everything right now Skygazer.

If you are mafia idk just come out and admit it, because I'm sort of out of energy. I think if you're mafia here you're done either way so you should just out and give up.

[gob]

Seems pretty much everyone is townreading me or treating me like town.

If you think otherwise tell me now. Cause I hven't felt any heat from Sky recently, Bella had a bit with me yesterday.

[gob]

Seems pretty much everyone is townreading me or treating me like town.

If you think otherwise tell me now. Cause I hven't felt any heat from Sky recently, Bella had a bit with me yesterday.

I still think you could be scum

It feels like you just want to push sky because I showed some form of hesitation for bella. You say you think it's sky because bella is fine with being faded but 1113 came after she said that, and in this post you say you think it's bella

And now you seem really concerned with how people read you which reads like you want to take the people that townread you the most to ELO

I'm not sure if you're scum trying to position themselves optimally or paranoid town

Honestly at this point, I think sky -> bella or bella -> sky wins so I dont really care either way. What you and sky say about Bella potentially doing that for appearances is true. The same could be said about Black's appeal yesterday.

I definitely care about how people read me. I said what I said specifically to bring this up and get this out of the way btw.

Cause if I am wrong here, I don't want to be put into a situation where I'm with lets say Bella (mafia) and Skygazer (town). I could lose that because Bella could trick Sky. Or vice versa. So it obviously matters who I bring into F3 with me.

So to answer your question in a pretentious way, I'm paranoid town trying to position myself optimally.

[gob]

as a defense against the molla thing:
i declared intent before he self hammered. if molla is gonna die anyways, why not just let me hammer and get the cred? self-hammers usually come when the optics are looking good, not when it makes it seem like the partner is stalling on voting

Yea. I will read your games and see.

What do you think the optimal path right now Sky? If you had to guess.

[gob]

Seems Sky isn't focused on the next days as much as me, black and bella are. Anyone else think this?

[gob]

most optimal path would be to catch scum today

True but thats tough

[gob]

I’m craving pizza

[gob]

Black can you link ur scum gMes too? might as well do this right

[gob]

imma do my thang

[gob]

This is basically my game, and nobody else's game, at this point.

It's a single player game and it rests on my shoulders to win it for town. Everyone else is irrelevant here (no offense guys)

[gob]

my head hurts so FUCKING bad right now I cannot solve.

Black -> if you're scum I will probably retire from mafia, no joke.
Bella -> you are my truest solve I think
Skygazer -> you are my secondary solve.

I am repeating myself at this point but nobody else is posting so Idk what to do.

[gob]

I get that, but If you, gob and black decide you three, then there's two town deciding. I think if gob /is/ town I don't see a way to get through to him tomorrow? Best case scenario is that we lim black and black is scum! But if she isn't, then realistically I see you being the decision maker tomorrow

Seems like you are okay with me, black and Sky deciding in f3? is basically what you're saying right?

I am a bit unmotivated right now, but i'll figure it out before the eod.

[gob]

....if I look for an agenda, especially in what I've just written, I feel like it's in what I'm saying about black. I think I'm being a bit pig headed: I want gob to be scum, rather than soneone who just doesnt get me

So who are you scum reading now exactly? I'm not really sure.

I am not scum and if I am wrong on you, I'm sorry. I don't really have anything new to say about anyone right now though.

[gob]

....if I look for an agenda, especially in what I've just written, I feel like it's in what I'm saying about black. I think I'm being a bit pig headed: I want gob to be scum, rather than soneone who just doesnt get me

So who are you scum reading now exactly? I'm not really sure.

I am not scum and if I am wrong on you, I'm sorry. I don't really have anything new to say about anyone right now though.

Did you get anything out of my scum games?

Havent read anything. I felt like shit all of Saturday and then I threw up. I feel okay now but no motivation for the game. I know I'll probably get motivated soon though.

If I believe gob to be town, my question is do we want skygazywho is basically a ? At the end, or black who I see there's a valid reason to sr.

No answers to my questions?

[gob]

stop black

lwt me get to this but i think thats the wrong play

bad f3

[gob]

stop black

lwt me get to this but i think thats the wrong play

bad f3

???

just wait for me before voting

[gob]

im fucking garbage dude

[gob]

stop black

lwt me get to this but i think thats the wrong play

bad f3

Tbf it's a bad f3 for black is she's scum, so why would she want it?

I am not sure if i should explain fully because it will make it easier for the mafia. But basically I dont want to have the two people not voting alongside molla day 1 to be in my ELO. We were all on the same wagon day 1 so we really should never do that ELO for technical reasons

That's a good point. This is WIFOM so I don't think it matters but if I were scum here I would absolutely try to fade bella

You can say that and maybe its true but its bad logic to follow.

Gob why is it a bad f3 for you

Makes it harder for me basically. Cause of the day 1 wagon stuff.

Basically all the stuff i said before about Bella/Black having 1 scum 100%. I still believe in that (although if im wrong ill know why and adjust later, because mafia sometimes want a tied wagon).

[gob]

Because you are telling us about /optimal/ scum. And maybe you are that optimal scum normally: but are we?

That is what im trying to figure out here

I guess my question is that you are using 'scum' as a catch all term there: surely a better question is does Bella!scum care about what's technically correct scum play?(Vella can't even count). Does black?

I don’t know. The way i play though is trying to figure out what the optimal play for mafia was and backtracking. Even if youre wrong you still end up catching mafia usually.

But im not interested in thinking about Black or Bella or Sky’s actual thoughts on the game outside of what they were saying before. Because how you all explain your thought processes and stuff now doesnt really help me

[gob]

gob if you vote w me right now we can force a black elim due to the voting mechanic

can we do bella or no?

[gob]

I do want to do this right but i understand we’re running out of time. I was sick over the weekend and now im kinda swamped at work, and i should really stop playing at work anyway.

I still am planning on putting forth the time and effort to look at everything again, but you know how real life goes.

[gob]

Alright, time to bring out the bullshit tactics and strategies.

[gob]

I won't like, for a second there I was feeling unconfident and even a little (dare I say it) scared?

Not scared to lose mind you. Scared of being wrong. Since regardless of the outcome here, I fucked up big at some point on Sky or Black. Unless it's Bella in which case I fucked up small.


But then I remembered that it's just a game, and I shouldn't be scared of these situations but embrace them. Since this is where my biggest issues as a player lie.

[gob]

okay fuck it whatever. in gob we trust.

VOTE: bella

I was interested in that analysis. If I was wrong on you, then I could be wrong on Black. So you pushing that way may be good.

I haven't even read anyone's old games yet btw, just so everyone knows how not-progressed I am.

[gob]

It's crazy Aureal disappeared for 16 years and then came back.

[gob]

I think I am okay with a Skygazer wagon today actually.

A lot of their analysis on Day 1 doesn't sit right with me, basically. I've sort of accepted I'm not gonna have some kind of A-hah moment.

Their vote onto Aureal is also less towny then I originally thought. He previously did SR kitty a lot, and then Skygazer flipped on Kitty because he's scared of Mislimming. There was also some weird wording (but this doesn't really mean anything unless I went and cross verified which I don't want to do since idk its a lot).

I feel like it was a vote to save Skygazer's skin, and basically let the town make their own mistake and not hammer Kitty himself.

It's a shame we limmed Roulette yesterday, since they were pretty clearly town from the EoD1 looking back with hindsight. Anyways, I think I am okay limming Skygazer here.

The F3 will be awkward for me, but no F3 is gonna be perfect since we limmed Roulette yesterday I am realizing. I am also not even really interested in thinking about people's motivations much today since I give people the benefit of the doubt too much so it never leads anywhere.

[gob]

viewtopic.php?t=91705 go read the elo

What was this in reference to? What is elo?

I probably should actually vote Bella here because I don't think the wagon analysis stuff has ever been wrong before. At least not when I've used it. But I can see why a scum!sky would hop on Aureal with scum!molla on Day 1 there. And again all the other shit with Sky around Day 1 i didn't like.

Bella I feel like they are a bit different from their scum games usually. More forceful. The sample size is one though, and it's with Molla. In that game she put molla at E-1 but didn't really push hard. This game she drove the lim (although Sky? i think said it was my vote that really changed the tides) being first on Molla.

Black I haven't got to. I'll be totally honest though, my paranoia about Black is coming back.

@Bella @Skygazer
If you have experience with Black, how good of a bluffer is she? My main town-tell on her was her absolute willingness to go Black -> gob, but I am not sure how real that willingness was, especially as it fades to memory. So I need your opinions, please.

[gob]

Newbie 2111
Newbie 2113
Newbie 2116
Micro 1082
Open 885

Open 888 (had to replace out of this one halfway through)

I will, probably not read this at work since I'll be too busy, but in a perfect world I may take a look at this on the shitter @ work 2morrow.

[gob]

it is pretty funny how i was kinda scumread by everyone but now im probably the innocent child tomorrow lol

[gob]

I’ll enter a deep depression if i lose this match.