open 894: near vanilla (game over)

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

it just feels too convenient to me that you're relatively hands off and barely here during d1

make popins to vote for kurta twice when his wagon reaches 5/6 votes respectively. and then you suddenly swing to the "right solution" and black's just there to do some weird song and dance with you?

it just feels covenient and like wrong.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

a) how would Black know that this distancing gambit would work

b) how are you confident it was even Black's idea in the first place

c) what has made you convinced that T3/Black were pulling a 5head strategy to position a theoretical scum!me as a deepwolf instead of just a flailing shot in the dark

a) she didnt have to know it would work, shes not a time traveler - she would do whatever she thinks has the highest chance of success.

b) black is likely the most experienced scum player on the team and her track record is p strong as mafia i think she would take it upon herself to plan this out.

c) cuz i dont think the odds of misyeeting titus are very good at all - so if the play is not to misyeet titus then it should be to make their #3 look good.

[OutWorldER]

it just feels too convenient to me that you're relatively hands off and barely here during d1

make popins to vote for kurta twice when his wagon reaches 5/6 votes respectively. and then you suddenly swing to the "right solution" and black's just there to do some weird song and dance with you?

it just feels covenient and like wrong.

so I'm scum because I caught scum at the wrong time???

[OutWorldER]

your entire argument predicates on the basis that you know exactly what both T3 and Black were thinking at the exact time they made those posts 2 months ago, and you've consequently latched onto this explanation that all the posts on page 40 are part of this super 5-dimensional scum strategy instead of literally any other, or more likely explanation.

[OutWorldER]

I need to go to bed and frankly I also need to step back as well because I keep having to retype my posts to get rid of crude words; at this point I just feel like you just decided I was scum when you replaced in and are only engaging with me out of obligation at this point

i do think you're probably town because your play here reminds me of among us mafia which is like the only frame of reference I have for your town game, and I also just don't feel like you'd expend the effort to go after me if you were scum here in this position.

that basically only leaves jupiter as my vote so

VOTE: Jupiter

good night

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

your entire argument predicates on the basis that you know exactly what both T3 and Black were thinking at the exact time they made those posts 2 months ago, and you've consequently latched onto this explanation that all the posts on page 40 are part of this super 5-dimensional scum strategy instead of literally any other, or more likely explanation.

well the alternative explanation is that they expected to yeet Titus and reading the game from page 35-40 I dont see how thats a reasonable expectation

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

you just decided I was scum when you replaced in and are only engaging with me out of obligation at this point

nah I wouldn't do that to you

if I made up my mind I would just hard push I am still very undecided but leaning towards you being last scum tbh.

I want to hear what TP has to say about why he thinks you're town.

there's a lot of things I've left unsaid that I'm still thinking about over and over. I still need to read parts of the game I haven't

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I guess the way I think about it is.

What was Black/T3 trying to do when they voted for Titus?

I reread that part of the game I don't think it makes sense for them to expect to get 5 town votes to misyeet Titus. Like who would even vote for Titus atp in the game? She feels like she's in control of the game and does not really feel like a viable elimination.

It feels to me like a kind of banzai charge that is extremely unlikely to work and I think black knows enough about reading a game state to know that it wouldn't work.

So if the goal wasn't to misyeet Titus then what is the goal? My theory is that the goal is to make whoever is scum #3 look good enough that they get to endgame on the towncred - because really you only need one scum to win the game. You never really need to worry about being mech-guiltied by a cop and if you simply just no-kill forever as long as you are outside of the standard POE you can go very deep.

The bonus for this kind of strategy is you never face the question of "why is so-and-so still alive?" that is an issue whenever someone highly townread doesn't die for a long time - since the mafia is not killing anyone there's no actual need to worry about "surviving for too long" as a townread player.

Also I reread the conversation Black is having with you and I don't see what her goal is. Is it to convince you to vote Titus? Like not really? It's not like anything she said is likely imo to convince you that you're wrong and titus is mafia or establish a kind of link that makes you less likely to vote for her. So I think the other viable answer is that she is trying to make you look good by letting you catch her because I think she knew she was already in a bad spot in that position.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

your entire argument predicates on the basis that you know exactly what both T3 and Black were thinking at the exact time they made those posts 2 months ago, and you've consequently latched onto this explanation that all the posts on page 40 are part of this super 5-dimensional scum strategy instead of literally any other, or more likely explanation.

I could actually be completely wrong about everything I said about Black/T3 and I could also be wrong about who is the mastermind proposing the idea but I could also still be right that you are the last mafia.

You're using something know as appeal to probability which is a logical fallacy in which you talk about a specific example of what must happen for me to be right on every point - which i agree is unlikely. I could indeed be wrong on every single point I have made so far in this game but still be right that you are mafia. You are trying to conflate the two probabilities.

I know it's not damning because this could just as easily come from town!you but I guess I'm reading the emotional undertones as exasperated scum rather than frustrated townie.

I can be pretty confbiased tho so I'm gonna look at this with fresh eyes tomm and try to be open minded because people tell me I'm fucking awful at being open minded and they're mostly right.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Another thought just came to me.

This is T3 "casing" Titus: Timestamp: Mon Dec 04, 2023 7:56:46 pm

T3, why are you scumreading me?

I noticed that you hyperfocused on Kurtapika earlier and rarely, if ever provided much commentary or reads on other players. Another thing I noticed was that you aren't doing VCA and that your reads are 'muted,' in a sense. You have your theory about me/Kurta/Black but you're only really going out and pushing Kurta. It seems very different to MBOS 13 when you were absolutely convinced that Norwee/Dwlee/me were scum - you really pushed us hard and you had more substantial reasoning than you do for me/Kurta/Black:
Subject: mini theme 2229: MBOS 13 schweppes' pulpy potions daya 5

The three of them are locktowning each other based on spacious reasoning. They don't interact organically.

[citation needed]

-Retti

For example,

NorwegianboyEE: The three of us aren't locktowning each other.
Also NorwegianboyEE: My PoE includes none of them. Titus is there though.

T3: We aren't hard defending each other.
Also T3: Puts me as lock scum for my reads.

Previously,

NorwegianboyEE: Dwlee, your read on Titus has no reason just tunneling.
Dwlee: So what?
NorwegianboyEE: That's ok you'll see Titus as town.

Later:

NoweiganboyEE: It's Titus and Fairy Circle.

---

This is scum trying to chain us and/or vig me.

Your play here also differs from what I most recently saw of you in Secrets of the Anukat Topaz, in that game you, again, had very strong scumreads and awkwardly pushed those scumreads in a scummy way such that you eventually got voted out. As Dannflor remarked on earlier, your tone definitely feels slightly more relaxed here compared to your tone in Secrets of the Anukat Topaz, which came across to me as extremely wooden. This is a pretty weak point because when I spectated Datisi's University I found your tone as scum to transcend into an entirely different dimension of wooden.

I also strongly disliked your progression here:

I also believe kurtapika is largely a town driven wagon

Which makes the non existence of a counter wagon pretty weird

The nearest we’ve come is skygazer

T3 has been vla and the third won't use their limited cache to create a counter. They've played passively with their vote to try and get a counter going to no avail.

VOTE: T3

Between these two posts, the only thing that changed was Aisa saying that Kurta is town and OWER voting me. While you did say that Kurta not having English as a first language makes you think that he is townier, that doesn't address the bulk of your argument against Kurta so I don't buy that you unvoted because of a changed read. I also don't buy that you could have unvoted because the day was ending and the consensus was on me. At that point, there were still 48 hours left in the day, and while the momentum was on me, Kurta was the bigger wagon.

Black hops on here at Mon Dec 04, 2023 8:08:42 pm

I've been thinking Titus could be scum here and I like this case from T3. I'm on board with this

VOTE: Titus

and you show up to "shut down the counterwagon" here at 8:13:55

That case is extremely weak-sauce and I think the T3/Black partner theory gains more merit by the post.

The timestamps are relevant because I simply do not believe the 5 minutes that transpired between Black's vote hopping onto T3's "case" are enough time for you to read the T3 post and Black's vote hop and decide that this is some kind of scumwagon that needs to be shut down.

I also don't think you read T3's scumcase of Titus and did an evaluation or meta comparison because he posted at 756 and I simply do not believe you were online and able to do cross meta comparison and decide all of his points were "Weaksauce" and "reachy" in such a short timespan.

this entire interaction feels like planned scum theatre to me and not an organic thing that just happened

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

there's a certain confidence and edge to how you interact specifically with black on page 40 that rings extremely townie but it also feels like its missing in the rest of your iso which worries me because I can see you feeling comfortable in being confident in bussing your teammate who is working with you but you have less confidence when fake-sorting an unaligned player.

yes I'm confbiased as fuck because I literally just talked myself from thinking that your interaction with black on the back end of 40 feels townie into man this doesnt fit with the rest of this guy's iso.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

alright I actually need to sleep I expect Tired Person to slap some sense into me if I'm actually off the reservation or some shit

[schadd_]

Spoiler:

vote count 9.2 !

JupiterXV (1):

OutWorldER

not voting (3):

PookyTheMagicalBear, tired person, JupiterXV

with 4 alive, it takes 3 to remand a player's remnants. day 9 ends in (expired on 2024-02-03 09:45:12)

moderateur notes

• toot

[JupiterXV]

VOTE: OWER it's not pooky at this point

[OutWorldER]

Also I reread the conversation Black is having with you and I don't see what her goal is. Is it to convince you to vote Titus? Like not really? It's not like anything she said is likely imo to convince you that you're wrong and titus is mafia or establish a kind of link that makes you less likely to vote for her. So I think the other viable answer is that she is trying to make you look good by letting you catch her because I think she knew she was already in a bad spot in that position.

the impression I got when I was talking against her was that she was trying to lead me into saying something that she'd try to turn around on me.

idk I don't really know the specific goal I just remember the distinct feeling of thinking that Black was trying to lead me into some sort of vocal trap

[OutWorldER]

also the timestamp theory is just...what? There's 17 minutes between T3's case and me posting, which is more than enough time to read through it. Black's post afterwards was two entire lines. You could be the next Mr. Fantastic with that stretch.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

so when did you read it

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

like did you just happen to be online when T3 dropped his big post and you started reading it and going into the games he cited as meta to check if they supported his conclusions? like what was you process for deciding T3's case was "weaksauce"

[OutWorldER]

i didn't check the citations on his meta-read I just read the post and it fundamentally clashed with my own experience of playing with Titus and the conclusions beyond the meta-read were incredibly barebones so I thought it was shit

[tired person]

sorry guys, i don't have time today to read all the new pages v_v

i super promise to do it tomorrow.

what i can say is that i think jupiter ruling outworlder out at the beginning of this say phase combined with the post about doctor self-protecting, might've been a scumslip, because maybe jupiter tried to kill outworlder n1 and failed. yeah outworlder was my doc save n1 and t3 hinted that he didn't even perform the kill:

Why the hell would I submit the kill if I was scum

If I am scum here then I WILL LITERALLY JUST HAVE MY PARTNER SUBMIT THE KILL TO AVOID GETTING BLOCKED BY THE JAILKEEPER. Yeah, Titus, no shit, I'm the obvious Jailkeeper target!!!

God you're so tunneled just like every single game I play with you

This means there's about a 33% chance T3 is scum because Titus jailkept him. Maybe you think it's unlikely that T3 was the nightkill target (fair enough) - that's still a 50-50 split between "T3 is scum" and "the Doctor saved someone last night".

What I've been trying to say for a while is that

if I'm scum, I don't have to be the person carrying out the kill

From your POV, if I flip town, then what? A doctor has a clear, who in all likelihood is someone who we're all townreading already?

The mech against me only works if I am the one to submit the kill. Ignoring the fact that I already knew that Titus was Jailkeeper, I will only submit the kill if either my partner is so towny that they would be jailed, or so scummy that they would be jailed. In the former scenario, my only possible partners are Dannflor, OWER, and maybe Jupiter although I don't think that scum would see him as competent enough to kill. In the latter scenario, my only possible partner is Kurta.

The only people who have actually gone ahead and expressed why they scumread me for reasons other than mech are Titus and Skygazer. I don't hate Skygazer's case but Titus' case is clearly rooted in confirmation bias.

also, i checked this yesterday when i was going over whether dannflor had any chance to be scum, and i've concluded that yes, t3 did have a reason to nightkill outworlder.

outworlder was basically (correctly) tunneled on a t3/black solve, as demonstrated from this post + his next 7 posts in iso:

That case is extremely weak-sauce and I think the T3/Black partner theory gains more merit by the post.

Why is Titus town?

Because you and T3 are scum.

so if town!outworlder was left alive, t3 could count on him mega pushing him after black's flip and therefore had to kill him.

thoughts, pooky? since the other two are kinda in direct 1v1.

[JupiterXV]

but i'm town...

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

sorry guys, i don't have time today to read all the new pages v_v

i super promise to do it tomorrow.

what i can say is that i think jupiter ruling outworlder out at the beginning of this say phase combined with the post about doctor self-protecting, might've been a scumslip, because maybe jupiter tried to kill outworlder n1 and failed. yeah outworlder was my doc save n1 and t3 hinted that he didn't even perform the kill:

Why the hell would I submit the kill if I was scum

If I am scum here then I WILL LITERALLY JUST HAVE MY PARTNER SUBMIT THE KILL TO AVOID GETTING BLOCKED BY THE JAILKEEPER. Yeah, Titus, no shit, I'm the obvious Jailkeeper target!!!

God you're so tunneled just like every single game I play with you

This means there's about a 33% chance T3 is scum because Titus jailkept him. Maybe you think it's unlikely that T3 was the nightkill target (fair enough) - that's still a 50-50 split between "T3 is scum" and "the Doctor saved someone last night".

What I've been trying to say for a while is that

if I'm scum, I don't have to be the person carrying out the kill

From your POV, if I flip town, then what? A doctor has a clear, who in all likelihood is someone who we're all townreading already?

The mech against me only works if I am the one to submit the kill. Ignoring the fact that I already knew that Titus was Jailkeeper, I will only submit the kill if either my partner is so towny that they would be jailed, or so scummy that they would be jailed. In the former scenario, my only possible partners are Dannflor, OWER, and maybe Jupiter although I don't think that scum would see him as competent enough to kill. In the latter scenario, my only possible partner is Kurta.

The only people who have actually gone ahead and expressed why they scumread me for reasons other than mech are Titus and Skygazer. I don't hate Skygazer's case but Titus' case is clearly rooted in confirmation bias.

also, i checked this yesterday when i was going over whether dannflor had any chance to be scum, and i've concluded that yes, t3 did have a reason to nightkill outworlder.

outworlder was basically (correctly) tunneled on a t3/black solve, as demonstrated from this post + his next 7 posts in iso:

That case is extremely weak-sauce and I think the T3/Black partner theory gains more merit by the post.

Why is Titus town?

Because you and T3 are scum.

so if town!outworlder was left alive, t3 could count on him mega pushing him after black's flip and therefore had to kill him.

thoughts, pooky? since the other two are kinda in direct 1v1.

I dunno why T3 would give us any useful information, for all we know he did try to send the kill and got blocked.

you're right that OWER should have shoved T3 after Black flips scum but he voted for Afayeed instead and this is one page after Afayeed spars with Titus over some nonsense so even though he's saying T3 is mafia he's not really hardshoving atp.

I have not read anything yet but I pre-typed some thoughts during the night. Will properly catch up later as currently I'm occupied today.

VOTE: Afrayed Knott

Spoiler: Wall

Current Townblock: Myself, Titus, Dann, Skygazer, Project, ¿¿Bellaphant??

Project was Black's top townread, being heavily pushed by Dann, but had a lot of pushback, most of which was by Titus though, who's extremely likely to be town. Project likely to just be town.

Kurta also heavily pushed by Dann but wagon fizzled out, townread by Black, but gamestate theory presented by Dann beforehand still holds weight. Probably town?

Afrayed Knott pushed by Black in a really soft way, and Black never really tried to get anybody on the wagon. Seems very much like distancing. Most confident in this partner equity.

T3 was on the chopping block and both him and Black tried to setup a counter-wagon on Titus. Don't see a reason for Black to get off T3 if he's a mislim, and the sudden shift in reads suggest she was getting ready to bus but switched to try and counter momentum on the T3 wagon. Unless she was just trying to get Titus speed-limmed so she didn't have to deal with the NKA of night-killing her? "I'll deathtunnel Titus if T3 flips Town" feels like scum setting up a chain mislim. But why try to get Titus limmed off T3's case if you were setting up to lim Titus tommorow off a T3 mislim? Occam's Razor probably just says T3 is scum here.

Biggest suspicions in T3/Afrayed Knott. Bellaphant and Skygazer least confident townreads. Self-hammer at 24 hours left in deadline feels strange, optimal play here is to hope Town's momentum fizzles out and they no lim, thinking Black tried to make it look like Bellaphant was bussing. Weak TR though.

Skygazer vote on Black seems too early to be a bus when she could've tried to continue pushing T3 or try to add credibility to the case against Titus. Skygazer probably only scum in a Black/Skygazer/T3 world and preferred bussing Black over bussing T3, but that seems unlikely for a multitude of reasons.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

knowing OWER was the n1 protect does change the odds quite a bit but I honestly still don't feel comfortable voting for Jupiter.

if you really want me to i'll do it and hope I'm wrong but like I won't be happy about it tho this could just be because I'm crazy confbiased -.-

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

like I just can't see OWER being a strong enough thread presence for the scum to decide we gotta shoot this guy immediately. it feels like if they wanted to kill anyone they'd want to kill titus

[OutWorldER]

like I just can't see OWER being a strong enough thread presence for the scum to decide we gotta shoot this guy immediately. it feels like if they wanted to kill anyone they'd want to kill titus

I mean, yeah they would want to kill Titus but she's also like, a really obvious doc shot candidate. Pure WIFOM on both ends whether that goes through or not. Same with the other big townie presences like Dann. It's probable that T3 thought there was a lesser chance I'd get doc'd or that other kills outside of Titus would be too incriminating.