(micro 1101) mystery box of silver 16: tinkleton (it tinkled)

[Psyche]

Okay. Drew. I'm thinking of doing this wagon with the worst. if you ask me not to, I won't.
But if I do, then this will quickly test your theory that worst is scum -- but by risking the game.
Her teammate (gypyx) will swoop in and hammer HPE and the game will be over.

[the worst]

if your solve is correct, the biggest loss vector is me voting hpe, hpe voting me, drew voting me, gypyx hammering me. if the solve isn't correct, the biggest loss vector fmpov is me voting the town in [gypyx, hpe] and then the scum in [gypyx, hpe] & drew hammering. I guess you can also be scum but I don't really feel like living in any of those universes.

I do think hpe/drew is more likely than gypyx/drew in a manner of like, 67% to 19% to 14% or something.

At some point we're gonna have to prove that there is scum within 2 slots tho and drew tunnelling me seems like a problem whether it's today or in f3.

[Psyche]

But if you assent, here is why you should not respond by starting a wagon on worst:

Under the scenario where worst is scum, you starting a wagon on worst will not make it harder for worst to win. Gypyx will still be able to show up and hammer HPE and win. So your win chance goes from 0 to 0 with a vote on worst (if worst is scum).
But under the scenario where worst is town, you starting a wagon on will lose the game -- HPE and Gypyx will hammer.

So because
1) you acknowledge that there is some chance of worst being town, and
2) you don't gain any win chance from voting worst if they and I are on a wagon together

then you should not vote worst if worst and I end up on a wagon against HPE.

But again, I won't vote HPE unless you assent to it. homie code or whatever.

[Doctor Drew]

Okay. Drew. I'm thinking of doing this wagon with the worst. if you ask me not to, I won't.
But if I do, then this will quickly test your theory that worst is scum -- but by risking the game.
Her teammate (gypyx) will swoop in and hammer HPE and the game will be over.

Well ok, no pressure I guess lol

I won't stop you, you have put in the work so again.....will defer to you, just will be another apology letter to send me if wrong lol

[Psyche]

i think gypyx/drew is super unlikely at this point because of drew's decision to maintain a scumread on you worst. we would have potentially already limmed HPE and lost the game by now under gypyx/drew.

[Psyche]

i think gypyx/drew is super unlikely at this point because of drew's decision to maintain a scumread on you worst. we would have potentially already limmed HPE and lost the game by now under gypyx/drew.

unless drew is some sort of sadist

[Psyche]

ohh wait lemme think

[the worst]

I literally pedited a vote out.

[Psyche]

sry in a phone call but i want to check a thing first one moment

[the worst]

No rush

[the worst]

Actually there's a world where we use this phase to hammer test drew/gypyx or me/hpe if we want to really lower the odds

[Psyche]

ok, the flaw im noticing in my reasoning in 1054 is that at the time drew could have chosen to townread you (instead of maintaining his scumread), we were teed up to lim gypyx. And in fact, he might have looked suspicious if he didn't signpost a preference to lim gypyx supposing he did turn out to townread you.

So townreading you probably would have compelled him to back a gypyx lim. Does this push the needle for me though? I guess I already had reasons to reject a gypyx/drew team but it might move the needle for you.

[Psyche]

The point I'm trying to make though is that it's incorrect to infer that gypyx is scum based on drew's decision not to go along with townreading worst.

[Psyche]

Anyway! You still wanna put down that vote? I'm still down.

[the worst]

ok, the flaw im noticing in my reasoning in 1054 is that at the time drew could have chosen to townread you (instead of maintaining his scumread), we were teed up to lim gypyx. And in fact, he might have looked suspicious if he didn't signpost a preference to lim gypyx supposing he did turn out to townread you.

So townreading you probably would have compelled him to back a gypyx lim. Does this push the needle for me though? I guess I already had reasons to reject a gypyx/drew team but it might move the needle for you.

I think this is within the realm of doubt that I've accounted for tbh, like drew/gypyx is a slightly more difficult world to find than drew/hype and you seem extremely confident on this point and I do agree with it a moderate amount but either way I just think HPE is scum and I'm probably going to be here overthinking my partner solve tomorrow.

[the worst]

VOTE: HPE probably not going to find a path to win if this is wrong

[Psyche]

ok. let's do it.

VOTE: HPE

[Psyche]

say drew if you're feeling impatient and also very friendly you can go ahead and hammer. or also if you're scum doing a great betrayal

[the worst]

I'm probably more nervous than I have any right to be but I don't feel bamboozled so maybe it's just my natural state.

[Psyche]

or we can wait, that's fine. i am definitely capable of thinking about other things while experiencing the passage of time. for sure. great time to just be subscribed to get email notifications when a post is made in this thread. i can just tune out and live the rest of my life until gmail pings me.

[Doctor Drew]

VOTE: hpe

[Psyche]

gasp
ok well are any of you two scum?

[Psyche]

now worst im sure there's the thought in the back of your head that drew is bussing here but we really are just homies to the max. i think. peace out.

[Psyche]

gosh drew say something you were just here agh

[Psyche]

it couldnt be it couldn't be it couldn't be