This setup is very very hard to win for scum after a scum elimination D1. If there was one thing I wish we could prep scum newbies for, it's that. Because bussing being equal to a loss state in most setups isn't always the most intuitive thing to learn. That being said, I think it's probably good that the newbie setup doesn't encourage heavy bussing D1. Regardless, I think StraightFlush did an admirable job getting as far as he did. I think the self-vote might have been a viable strategy at some point in this site's history but I think culture has shifted against that type of behavior somewhere along the line.
I think the D1 town conflict was interesting to watch in that neither side was fully wrong. On one hand, there *was* no real resistance to the camelCasedSnivy wagon. On the other hand, that didn't mean CCS was town. I think it was an interesting case of different townies having two different halves of the puzzle as opposed to anyone being fully wrong.
In post 36, StraightFlush wrote:
Not expecting you to respond to this, but I figure my wincon is just not getting tracked by Jackson tonight since a kill on him isn't safe (purple could still be a doctor according to the setup, in which case JV is the objectively best target). Of course there's also the possibility that Jackson lied about his N1 results to lim a strong scumread (ketchup) and bait someone onto purple, but I feel like that play would be more likely to come from a watcher since they'd actually have the ability to see everyone who visits purple after doing that
Wow, would you look at that! Scum really did thought that a doctor was possible!
Missing in your probability calculation is the chance that Purplemango has been tracked - despite identifying that the game is probably a tracker game. Otherwise, I really appreciate the effort you gave this game!
In post 139, ketchup777 wrote:
1681 Jackson calling me “Actually insane" oh boy, confrontational Jackson is back, he’s so back
It’s giving me similar vibe flashbacks to when Jackson said my POV was 'actually infuriating' (and we were TvT). So maybe he is town and we are TvTing for a third time (:
Gave me a good laugh. Do I want to read all of ur thread now? Ahhhhhh (yes)
"Am I a ghost like you, caught between the seams of two intertwining melodies?"
nice win though everyone, I’m glad you recovered! I’m surprised Flush thought I was baiting something in a doc/tracker setup, but I’ll take it. Purple was certainly a creative nightkill that could’ve worked and at the very least shook things up. With the nightkills seemingly known in advance it looked like flush would’ve been the next lim if he just went for a simple jackson kill anyway.
Zach you played well, I hope you play another game soon!
the HEM track was nice
I understand more now why you CCed me Jackson and I had been maybe too lenient in my notes at the time that I as scum would 'never' fakeclaim JK here. Your angle was that I was fakeclaiming in a fake gambit, which honestly makes sense to think that. so oops. And HEM you are right I didn’t think properly through if purple was tracked (which came to hurt here very much and could’ve been very bad). I’ll be more careful next time I try something like this!
hem+dragon I misread your slot from both of you. so oops that’s on me
In post 139, ketchup777 wrote:
1681 Jackson calling me “Actually insane" oh boy, confrontational Jackson is back, he’s so back
It’s giving me similar vibe flashbacks to when Jackson said my POV was 'actually infuriating' (and we were TvT). So maybe he is town and we are TvTing for a third time (:
Gave me a good laugh. Do I want to read all of ur thread now? Ahhhhhh (yes)
it’ll be quicker than you think some of the posts are just me screaming in agony over text whether to go through with the fakeclaim
I have two running theories in my mind, it depends on one assumption which is why Ydrasse was killed in particular. It's either my initial assumption which was a low-info kill, and them HEM's which would be an attempted PR-snipe. I personally think it's a strong combination of both.
Low Info Kill
In the world where Ydrasse was a low info kill, it would mean that the scum would be okay with the outcome Snivy's flip would have, considering HEM and myself were the primary pushback against a
scum flip
and the primary pusher (Kay, and to a lesser degree ketchup) had not been shot it means that they feel the game benefits to keep those people alive or that the scum simply cannot kill them (because they
are
them).
Hard pushing against a scum flip looks bad in all worlds, meaning the scum must have felt comfortable not killing those who would otherwise be extremely hard to eliminate when they themselves (HEM/JV) would be at a more severe risk. So from that line of thinking, that removes both HEM and myself from the scum pool. I called this out twice in the moment but Flush's actions also doesn't make sense with this assumption either, as they were town-reading both me and HEM going into today so the only way they're scum is if they thought the remaining town would just happen to take the push over which doesn't make sense if this kill was made for the reason to segment jv/hem further.
If the kill was made as an attempted PR snipe, which upon thinking further about HEM's thoughts I feel that this almost certainly has to do with it as otherwise I feel one of Kay/Ketchup would have been shot as it wouldn't affect the game too much with the mindset of keeping the game in the state that it's in. I feel the remaining scum making this kill in particular forces the remaining scum to have been thinking, at least a little bit substantially. Their focus being on finding PR is a strong hook as I believe one player has been playing, speaking and acting in a way that is almost entirely built upon finding the PRs. Guess who?
Ketchup's PR Hunting Mentality
I believe Ketchup's behaviour surrounding Flush in particular is the strongest thing that made me realise that they're the wolf this game. I believe with the logic that scum did kill to try and snipe the PR, the game-state benefitted them substantially I feel they felt they had the wiggle room to push a bit riskier socially to find who the PRs actually are. Their behaviour is weird surrounding Flush and pushing him to claim, I feel that they've already either deduced or even checked them if it's the rolecop world that Flush was not a PR and thus was not interested in pushing them because it simply
did not benefit
them to do so. They want to spread their wings out and get as much information as they can.
Anybody should be able to attest that they've been incredibly PR focused the entire game, which if that's just because I was the one that's always trying to shut down that conversation or call him out on it but it's been a repeated issue with him. I feel the reluctance on voting out Flush is obvious, Kay even called that out specifically and I believe it's because of this. I feel like his behaviour and his words don't line up properly. He makes it try to seem like he's okay with the wagon, he put Flush/Zach as his pool but he is also acting completely contradictory as it's very clear he actively
In post 2048, ketchup777 wrote:
i just think there are better places to lim, today at least
Who would you prefer to vote out right now?
Zach or Flush, but will check over Jackson and hem again at some point.
Shortly after this in his ISO, he had this awful progression showcasing his mentality of actively rejecting the idea of pushing flush even though he is very much in his solve and has not claimed (with Kay and I both being pretty headstrong about wanting to resolve that slot through a claim). His behaviour once again insinuates that he only wants to appear like he wants to push him (or wants to have him as a backup elim later when the information gathering phase is over and he wants to solidify an actual wagon)
There's also the behaviour around Flush's wagon earlier in the day where he felt reluctant to push Flush but even at that he clearly didn't have the mindset of finding scum. It was to get the claim and then jump off.
that's literally what these posts insinuate is his mindset here
In post 2115, JacksonVirgo wrote:
NKA is me assuming Ydrasse was a low-info kill because the scum liked the position they assumed D2 would start with. Which I would assume is exactly what is happening
I’ll comment on it then.
This is an interesting theory. I think it’s possible scum thought that since Ydrasse is an experienced player, her lying low could have suggested a PR (I hate this like of analysis yet other people seem to like it sooo…). Also they feared shooting me/KJQ in case we were protected. trying to work out which scumteam (A, B or C) it comes from I suppose
In post 2115, JacksonVirgo wrote:
NKA is me assuming Ydrasse was a low-info kill because the scum liked the position they assumed D2 would start with. Which I would assume is exactly what is happening
I’ll comment on it then.
This is an interesting theory. I think it’s possible scum thought that since Ydrasse is an experienced player, her lying low could have suggested a PR (I hate this like of analysis yet other people seem to like it sooo…). Also they feared shooting me/KJQ in case we were protected. trying to work out which scumteam (A, B or C) it comes from I suppose
If scum were killing just based on experience, why wasn't HEM or myself shot? We were all on a similar enough wavelength, why shoot the person easiest to actually eliminate. Chances are it wasn't because of a PR-read because to shoot Ydrasse, I would assume they would have to be pretty confident and it just was wrong so idk. My mind is going straight to low-info shot because nobody was really focusing them at all to any reasonable degree.
I think neither Purple nor Zach makes that kill. I don't think Kay does either. HEM doesn't make that kill, nor do I (I'd have killed Kay here). The remainder is you/flush
Ydrasse had the combo of r xperience and lying low. You and hem have not lied low (good, stay active! you are doing well and are on the money!).
In my first game, thomith‘s mini normal, I read mafia PT and outworlder pushed for the Delta kill because he was confident Delta was PR, yet he was wrong there. It’s possible a similar thing happened here.
I hadn’t really thought about who I would NK but to do a beacon of honesty I’ll think about it here now, assuming I didn’t know which of the 9 setups it was which is obviously not going to be true but anyway).
I would probably avoid killing kay. If I were a protective, kay is who I would protect. I might go for you, jackson, to shake things up and I don’t think you would be protected.
This is a pretty nonsensical analysis of what has happened and it feels like they're trying to push the conversation AWAY from talking about the reason Ydrasse was shot. Experience/Lying Low is the reason he believes ydrasse was shot when a scum flip happened, meaning an optimal kill for positioning is NECESSARY. He tries backing this up with an example immediately which makes me feel this was calculated. This entire post feels calculated, and also extremely out of touch of the gamestate so I feel this is an attempt to hide the fact that the kill was made for a specific reason (which I had spoken about above). The first quote of this quote tree also links to his pr-hunting mindset I called out earlier.
The fact it feels calculated but this post exists is insane
Unnatural Fixation on his (future) Scum Game + Regular Inconsistencies
I've argued this when I was pushing him day one, but I feel he is unnaturally and overly fixated on making statements for his future scum games or what a scum mindset would have. I feel this is his attempt at distancing himself from his own scum mindset as "why would scum talk about scum this much" or something along those lines.
In post 2150, ketchup777 wrote:
wolves are in {jackson, zachson, flush, hem}. I just need to get one of you out of this poollll
Replace Jack with purple and that’s where I’m at.
replace? why not just add purple in. do you really 100% think it’s not jackson?
I think you and Jackson are both in a place where I wouldn’t vote you until it was 3 people left and I’d need some sort of come-to-jesus moment.
brb organising my night kills to get to that ElO
There's been a few layers of inconsistencies they've had. Most notably when they said I was cleared through interaction from skitter but happened to just randomly ignore that later, even when I asked a question to gauge that in particular (too lazy to find the quotes) but here's another inconsistency
In post 1957, ketchup777 wrote:
Ydrasse was going to be in my pool for today though so I need to reevaluate
Mine too honestly so the kill is kinda odd. I feel like scum knows you and I are probably cleared and we’d be pushing those off the wagon. Unless they were sure (incorrectly) ydra had a PR, killing her was a bad idea because if scum didn’t vote their partner, the pool is small. She was the only vote on snivy that we could really see as sus.
i think it was probs a mix of PR hunting and fearing they hit a protect
I thought afterwards another play I could’ve made is quietly self-hammering and hoping scum miss PR again. Self-hammering feels too much like I’m game throwing to make that appealing tho
I have two running theories in my mind, it depends on one assumption which is why Ydrasse was killed in particular. It's either my initial assumption which was a low-info kill, and them HEM's which would be an attempted PR-snipe. I personally think it's a strong combination of both.
Low Info Kill
In the world where Ydrasse was a low info kill, it would mean that the scum would be okay with the outcome Snivy's flip would have, considering HEM and myself were the primary pushback against a
scum flip
and the primary pusher (Kay, and to a lesser degree ketchup) had not been shot it means that they feel the game benefits to keep those people alive or that the scum simply cannot kill them (because they
are
them).
Hard pushing against a scum flip looks bad in all worlds, meaning the scum must have felt comfortable not killing those who would otherwise be extremely hard to eliminate when they themselves (HEM/JV) would be at a more severe risk. So from that line of thinking, that removes both HEM and myself from the scum pool. I called this out twice in the moment but Flush's actions also doesn't make sense with this assumption either, as they were town-reading both me and HEM going into today so the only way they're scum is if they thought the remaining town would just happen to take the push over which doesn't make sense if this kill was made for the reason to segment jv/hem further.
If the kill was made as an attempted PR snipe, which upon thinking further about HEM's thoughts I feel that this almost certainly has to do with it as otherwise I feel one of Kay/Ketchup would have been shot as it wouldn't affect the game too much with the mindset of keeping the game in the state that it's in. I feel the remaining scum making this kill in particular forces the remaining scum to have been thinking, at least a little bit substantially. Their focus being on finding PR is a strong hook as I believe one player has been playing, speaking and acting in a way that is almost entirely built upon finding the PRs. Guess who?
Ketchup's PR Hunting Mentality
I believe Ketchup's behaviour surrounding Flush in particular is the strongest thing that made me realise that they're the wolf this game. I believe with the logic that scum did kill to try and snipe the PR, the game-state benefitted them substantially I feel they felt they had the wiggle room to push a bit riskier socially to find who the PRs actually are. Their behaviour is weird surrounding Flush and pushing him to claim, I feel that they've already either deduced or even checked them if it's the rolecop world that Flush was not a PR and thus was not interested in pushing them because it simply
did not benefit
them to do so. They want to spread their wings out and get as much information as they can.
Anybody should be able to attest that they've been incredibly PR focused the entire game, which if that's just because I was the one that's always trying to shut down that conversation or call him out on it but it's been a repeated issue with him. I feel the reluctance on voting out Flush is obvious, Kay even called that out specifically and I believe it's because of this. I feel like his behaviour and his words don't line up properly. He makes it try to seem like he's okay with the wagon, he put Flush/Zach as his pool but he is also acting completely contradictory as it's very clear he actively
In post 2048, ketchup777 wrote:
i just think there are better places to lim, today at least
Who would you prefer to vote out right now?
Zach or Flush, but will check over Jackson and hem again at some point.
Shortly after this in his ISO, he had this awful progression showcasing his mentality of actively rejecting the idea of pushing flush even though he is very much in his solve and has not claimed (with Kay and I both being pretty headstrong about wanting to resolve that slot through a claim). His behaviour once again insinuates that he only wants to appear like he wants to push him (or wants to have him as a backup elim later when the information gathering phase is over and he wants to solidify an actual wagon)
There's also the behaviour around Flush's wagon earlier in the day where he felt reluctant to push Flush but even at that he clearly didn't have the mindset of finding scum. It was to get the claim and then jump off.
that's literally what these posts insinuate is his mindset here
In post 2115, JacksonVirgo wrote:
NKA is me assuming Ydrasse was a low-info kill because the scum liked the position they assumed D2 would start with. Which I would assume is exactly what is happening
I’ll comment on it then.
This is an interesting theory. I think it’s possible scum thought that since Ydrasse is an experienced player, her lying low could have suggested a PR (I hate this like of analysis yet other people seem to like it sooo…). Also they feared shooting me/KJQ in case we were protected. trying to work out which scumteam (A, B or C) it comes from I suppose
In post 2115, JacksonVirgo wrote:
NKA is me assuming Ydrasse was a low-info kill because the scum liked the position they assumed D2 would start with. Which I would assume is exactly what is happening
I’ll comment on it then.
This is an interesting theory. I think it’s possible scum thought that since Ydrasse is an experienced player, her lying low could have suggested a PR (I hate this like of analysis yet other people seem to like it sooo…). Also they feared shooting me/KJQ in case we were protected. trying to work out which scumteam (A, B or C) it comes from I suppose
If scum were killing just based on experience, why wasn't HEM or myself shot? We were all on a similar enough wavelength, why shoot the person easiest to actually eliminate. Chances are it wasn't because of a PR-read because to shoot Ydrasse, I would assume they would have to be pretty confident and it just was wrong so idk. My mind is going straight to low-info shot because nobody was really focusing them at all to any reasonable degree.
I think neither Purple nor Zach makes that kill. I don't think Kay does either. HEM doesn't make that kill, nor do I (I'd have killed Kay here). The remainder is you/flush
Ydrasse had the combo of r xperience and lying low. You and hem have not lied low (good, stay active! you are doing well and are on the money!).
In my first game, thomith‘s mini normal, I read mafia PT and outworlder pushed for the Delta kill because he was confident Delta was PR, yet he was wrong there. It’s possible a similar thing happened here.
I hadn’t really thought about who I would NK but to do a beacon of honesty I’ll think about it here now, assuming I didn’t know which of the 9 setups it was which is obviously not going to be true but anyway).
I would probably avoid killing kay. If I were a protective, kay is who I would protect. I might go for you, jackson, to shake things up and I don’t think you would be protected.
This is a pretty nonsensical analysis of what has happened and it feels like they're trying to push the conversation AWAY from talking about the reason Ydrasse was shot. Experience/Lying Low is the reason he believes ydrasse was shot when a scum flip happened, meaning an optimal kill for positioning is NECESSARY. He tries backing this up with an example immediately which makes me feel this was calculated. This entire post feels calculated, and also extremely out of touch of the gamestate so I feel this is an attempt to hide the fact that the kill was made for a specific reason (which I had spoken about above). The first quote of this quote tree also links to his pr-hunting mindset I called out earlier.
The fact it feels calculated but this post exists is insane
Unnatural Fixation on his (future) Scum Game + Regular Inconsistencies
I've argued this when I was pushing him day one, but I feel he is unnaturally and overly fixated on making statements for his future scum games or what a scum mindset would have. I feel this is his attempt at distancing himself from his own scum mindset as "why would scum talk about scum this much" or something along those lines.
In post 2150, ketchup777 wrote:
wolves are in {jackson, zachson, flush, hem}. I just need to get one of you out of this poollll
Replace Jack with purple and that’s where I’m at.
replace? why not just add purple in. do you really 100% think it’s not jackson?
I think you and Jackson are both in a place where I wouldn’t vote you until it was 3 people left and I’d need some sort of come-to-jesus moment.
brb organising my night kills to get to that ElO
There's been a few layers of inconsistencies they've had. Most notably when they said I was cleared through interaction from skitter but happened to just randomly ignore that later, even when I asked a question to gauge that in particular (too lazy to find the quotes) but here's another inconsistency
In post 1957, ketchup777 wrote:
Ydrasse was going to be in my pool for today though so I need to reevaluate
Mine too honestly so the kill is kinda odd. I feel like scum knows you and I are probably cleared and we’d be pushing those off the wagon. Unless they were sure (incorrectly) ydra had a PR, killing her was a bad idea because if scum didn’t vote their partner, the pool is small. She was the only vote on snivy that we could really see as sus.
i think it was probs a mix of PR hunting and fearing they hit a protect
i think you panicked immediately from the wall post. this isn't necessarily a death sentence. the counter to this is strong AtE, slurs, derogatory statements, and excessive discussion of real-life issues. works every time.
