Open 913 - This Game Started as an April Fools' Joke - Postgame

[Black]

You're probably town for noticing that tbh

town for noticing what? (im prolly dumb and missing something)

The observation in 840 feels like something that would come from town

the observation that tvt moved to another t is town, or the observation that you moving that wagon is NAI?

The former

[experience]

actually has experience commented on teams at all? if not hey experience same question as im asking to thomith it creates good content trust

i did bring up agreeing with imag on possible teams.
tho rn, given ming flipped town, i need to re-evaluate

[Black]

Well all of it really. I just like that he is thinking on this level. It feels like he's trying to solve the game

[experience]

also, there's sk here.

[experience]

which is somewhat worrying me as for all we know, the sk could've killed csf for the towncred

[OopsieDaisy]

despite drew dying in the night over light, i do think black is town here. i don't think getting a lower info flip is worth the move that black made at the end of n0 so she's chill for now in my eyes.

el needs to start playing the game soon but i still stand by my read of her. just getting more worried now that she got a townread for me and then parked the bus knowing i'd defend her hard enough for a lim to not happen.

imag/light i have been on a similar page with through a lot of n0/1 so i'm inclined to townread em. saying it out loud maybe it's not the best reason but i can't rly think of why i would sr either of these players over others.

this leaves experience/halfasleep/thomith to sort. out of these three halfasleep is the most townie imo, in retrospect choosing to pick me out as her main sr despite imag/light's reads on me would be bold as scum cause you're kinda asking for pushback there.

i don't think it's as simple as experience/thomith scum tho. i'm probably wrong somewhere :/

[OopsieDaisy]

Well all of it really. I just like that he is thinking on this level. It feels like he's trying to solve the game

is it that big of an observation that the wagons were all town on n0 tho? i mean, obvs it's big for the game, but we spent a good chunk of yesterday discussing that a town!ming flip would mean all the wagons from n0 were town right.

i do get what you're saying on the solving side of things tho i have liked imag's posting just generally across the game.

[experience]

despite drew dying in the night over light, i do think black is town here. i don't think getting a lower info flip is worth the move that black made at the end of n0 so she's chill for now in my eyes.

el needs to start playing the game soon but i still stand by my read of her. just getting more worried now that she got a townread for me and then parked the bus knowing i'd defend her hard enough for a lim to not happen.

imag/light i have been on a similar page with through a lot of n0/1 so i'm inclined to townread em. saying it out loud maybe it's not the best reason but i can't rly think of why i would sr either of these players over others.

this leaves experience/halfasleep/thomith to sort. out of these three halfasleep is the most townie imo, in retrospect choosing to pick me out as her main sr despite imag/light's reads on me would be bold as scum cause you're kinda asking for pushback there.

i don't think it's as simple as experience/thomith scum tho. i'm probably wrong somewhere :/

you know sk counts as scum, right?

[OopsieDaisy]

which is somewhat worrying me as for all we know, the sk could've killed csf for the towncred

yea we've sorta got a schrodinger's vig thing going on. like the kills make sense for a vig but sk can just make them to look like a vig.

[OopsieDaisy]

despite drew dying in the night over light, i do think black is town here. i don't think getting a lower info flip is worth the move that black made at the end of n0 so she's chill for now in my eyes.

el needs to start playing the game soon but i still stand by my read of her. just getting more worried now that she got a townread for me and then parked the bus knowing i'd defend her hard enough for a lim to not happen.

imag/light i have been on a similar page with through a lot of n0/1 so i'm inclined to townread em. saying it out loud maybe it's not the best reason but i can't rly think of why i would sr either of these players over others.

this leaves experience/halfasleep/thomith to sort. out of these three halfasleep is the most townie imo, in retrospect choosing to pick me out as her main sr despite imag/light's reads on me would be bold as scum cause you're kinda asking for pushback there.

i don't think it's as simple as experience/thomith scum tho. i'm probably wrong somewhere :/

you know sk counts as scum, right?

haha yea definitely 100% totally i knew that yep defo

(i had a feeling but i usually just default to scum meaning like, a scumteam. i'll try and use mafia instead if it bothers people)

[experience]

tbh now i'm starting to worry that one of the more tred players (minus light) is sk.
i'll look through people's isos later today.
p-edit: i see. i usually associate scum with non-town

[experience]

i mean anti-town

[OopsieDaisy]

imag/light i have been on a similar page with through a lot of n0/1 so i'm inclined to townread em. saying it out loud maybe it's not the best reason but i can't rly think of why i would sr either of these players over others.

well the fact that light survived the night is still weird to me and the one-shot thing could just be a lie but i feel like this line of thinking is just gonna end up in me talking in circles to myself

[OopsieDaisy]

i mean anti-town

yea i think you're right dw

[OopsieDaisy]

how do you even sk hunt in a forum game? i've done it irl before cause there's usually something unnatural about the way they approach the game but that's all in the moment social stuff that doesn't rly translate to forum games.

[OopsieDaisy]

light DEFINITELY isn't sk if there is one tho, no world you claim cop like that as a 1-player faction you're asking to die in the night (or the following day if you guess wrong).

[halfasleep]

[halfasleep]

voted ming.
i think my preference here is a poe of daisy, elements, thomith, black. preferably in that order (maybe swap elements and thomith if daisy is town?). my gutread is that imaginality and experience are town.
not sure how to approach the 'vig or sk' question. i haven't played a game with a third-party in it yet so i don't have a good idea of what to look for.

[imaginality]

Spoiler: setup spec

Looking at the setup, we can rule out the first two of the anti-town scenarios if we believe light's cop claim:

* TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer
(Not possible as we have at least one C)
* TTTTTT = Goon + Godfather
(Not possible as we have had two kills)

Which leaves:
* TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer
[vs 1-shot cop and a Doc/RB/1-shot vig]
* TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker
[vs 1-shot cop and a vig]
*

TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer

[vs 1-shot cop and 2-3 other PRs]
* TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
[vs 1-shot cop, a vig, and 1-2 other PRs]
*

T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer

[vs 1-shot cop and 4 other PRs]
* 0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
[vs 1-shot cop, a vig, and 3-4 other PRs]

(It's not impossible we have both SK and a vig, but as that would require doc saves or targeting the same target both nights, it seems unlikely enough to rule out.)

The bolded scenarios are ones where we are in a 5 remaining town v 2+1 non-town scenario currently.

---

The fact we've had five VT flips so far points towards the first few of the above scenarios, as you'd expect the NKs or lims might have randomly hit a PR by now if we were jam packed with power.

---
Implications for current state:

In the 5 v 3 scenarios, we'll already be 3 v 3 after tonight if scum and SK managed to NK different players. So we need to get a doc or rb save tonight to have any chance.

If we're not in those scenarios, we're 6 v 2 or 6 v 1+1 currently. If we have a vig, it's likely 6 v 2.

Spoiler: vig scenario spec

Assuming if we have a vig we're 6 v 2 as seems likely:

If the vig holsters tonight and tomorrow night, worst case we get to control:
* 5 v 2 D3 lim
* 3 v 2 D4 lim

If the vig shoots tonight, worst case, we get to control:
* N2 vig shot (2/7 chance of hitting scum if not roleblocked, 1/6 chance of being roleblocked)
* 4 v 2 D3 lim
* N3 vig shot (2/4 chance of hitting scum if not roleblocked, 1/3 chance of being roleblocked)

I think that's a slightly better option overall?

I've written this during a work meeting lol so haven't double checked my workings but interested to know what others think.

So, my suggestion for today is we might as well assume we have a vig, and try to agree on two players we want to lim (in order, so if the vig shot gets blocked we know who to coalesce on for the vote).

And the vig can vig one and we lim the other.

[imaginality]

voted ming.
i think my preference here is a poe of daisy, elements, thomith, black. preferably in that order (maybe swap elements and thomith if daisy is town?). my gutread is that imaginality and experience are town.
not sure how to approach the 'vig or sk' question. i haven't played a game with a third-party in it yet so i don't have a good idea of what to look for.

I'm interested in your townread on experience. You describe it as a gutread but how strong is it?


For hunting SKs, one thing that I've seen work is spotting players who are focused on just looking for scum or just SK rather than considering both. The extra NKs could definitely come from either SK or vig, I think, so anyone who's being overly confident it's a vig might be a possible SK.

Also SKs can still seem a bit more confident/less confused than town players since they know a little bit more about what's going on. And care a little bit less about solving since they don't mind a mislims.

Take that with a grain of salt though as I haven't played many games recently.

[Black]

I was SK recently. SKs want to scum hunt. I lost my game because I couldn't find scum and kept killing townies

[Black]

Also did everyone vote for ming but me?

[Black]

Kind of a rhetorical question but it looks like it

[Black]

So, my suggestion for today is we might as well assume we have a vig, and try to agree on two players we want to lim (in order, so if the vig shot gets blocked we know who to coalesce on for the vote).

I like this plan

Assuming I have a better day today I'm gonna find some scum after work

[imaginality]

My gut still tells me Black's opening post today was performative. Drew was pretty sure Black was scum so I kinda feel if I were town!Black I'd be suspecting Drew was shot to frame me compared with a "that's so weird, why did Drew die" type of post.

And since then, Black giving me town points for making a somewhat obvious point (that happened to paint Black in a better light) felt a little like it could be from scum hoping to want to keep me on side.

@Daisy re. your point in 855 I don't see Black pushing for the BR lim as clearing her, because it's relatively riskfree as scum. Either town BR gets limmed, or town ming or town Moros do.

The risk of some suspicion on Black after BR flips town (which isn't a big risk, as townies pushing a mislim on D1 happens often enough) is balanced by the fact that if Black were to be limmed we would definitely have limmed ming or Moros afterwards out of suspicion she was deflecting away from them.

I want to look into other players more rather than tunnel, so I'll stop here, go sleep, and look wider tomorrow, but if the night mysteriously ended right now I'd probably vote Black.