Choose Carefully Mafia: (Game Over)

[PokerFace]

ok I'm here, last game before temp leave better be quick with this few left. Reading recent stuff there is talk of mass claim which might be a good idea at this stage in the game. I got 3 general questions before I consider reading all 40 pages and if mass claim really is best.

1. Who has claimed so far?

2. Who is confirmed and why?

3. Can I get any real quick summaries from anybody?

[PokerFace]

That last part sounds like a jump since you said BM felt town.

Either both neighbors are scum in the same group.
Both Scum in different groups which would be wierd.
or Both town.

I'll read through and see which of these is most accurate shortly. Probably the last one off hand.

[PokerFace]

Still reading through. Should be done soon since holidays be over.

If everybody wants to massclaim I'm down with it too.

Claiming in order of scuminess is good. Popcorn may also work fine.

Should be done reading by later today.

[PokerFace]

Ok I finished reading a bit later then I thought I would. my bad. I'll give a post stating all suspicions and who I think is in which group after I cover one other thing currently being discussed.

I was the first to think unconfirmed masons should be called neighbors. I am glad Bird111 decided to run a game with them. This an apropriate game to be my last game before my temp mafia leave.
http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Mason
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 36#1123736
And I say its neighbors instead or neighbours because I am american!

Onto business, I believe the final group of neighbors to both be town. Carn seemed to honestly suspect Armlx earlier in the game. In the context of them both being scum in the same group, I can't see CarnCarn as being willing to bus armlx his scum buddy. Can't see him as having that kinda a motive if they had never played before and armlx didn't seem to have any pregame talk with his neighbor scum planning a back and forth bus which scum usually plan out pre-game. So the idea of them being on the same team complimented by intentions of them early bussing each other seems outlandish.

Armlx's neighbor claim after the entire situation seems to fit well as an honest explanation to others more so than a fake claim. You can call wifom if you want but I don't think he would so easily link himself to his buddy Carn when they would also have to be paried with either EJ or Detspeed as the third buddy.

Basically I am now certain they aren't scum in the same group. And that they are in fact neighbors. They were first neighbors to claim and their entire back and forth looked genuine. Onto the context of them being scum in different groups yet still neighbors. Idea sounds crazy from page one and continues on that way. Why would Carn scum seek to lynch his neighbor buddy so earlier when it could out him as a neighbor and therefore place him under alot of pressure; if Armlx wasn't revealed as scum, him turning up innocent makes Carn look guilty. Only reason Carn could genuinly take such a risk was if he did not care if he was pressured and if he genuinly didn't care then he was more intent on catching scum then avoiding suspiciouns. Scum normally care more about looking inocent then hunting scum and since Carn seems to fall into the reverse catgory he must be town.

Only possibilities allowing symetry in scum groups are:
1. Both scum same group not neighbors
2. Both scum different group still neighbors
3. Both town still neighbors
4. One of them is an sk

And so since option 4 is just a joke , only option 3 allows Carn to be town and therefore Armlx must also be town. Basically something simular to what was said in post 348. With that settled its onto finding out who is scum among everyone else.

If 3/3 then everyone else is scum but me. If 2/2 then most of everyone else is scum. I think I already know who is in each group of those left. I'll show you these cases in my next post.

Carn, Who should claim next?

[PokerFace]

I am back.

Bluehost ate a post of mine as it crashed.

Will have an analysis on those still alive as soon as possible.

[PokerFace]

VT as in Vanilla Townie or are you claiming Vengeful Townie?

[PokerFace]

Vanilla Townie here too.

I think that's everybody assuming Armlx doesn't have anything to add to his claim. If he does he should say it now.

I'll rewrite/post analysis on players shortly. This week was busy and site wasn't up for all of it.

[PokerFace]

Ok I think the best way to do this analysis is to first look at who would most likly be scum in what faction

if it is 3/3

and then look at who would most likly be scum in what faction if its 2/2.

Sociopaths claim reeks and pretty much goes against the game rules of choosing which mafia to inspect. His post at the bottom of page 20 reeks of scum knowing Santos1 is town and thus not wanting to caught on the wagon of Santos1.

All in all, looking at the Santos wagoning, it seems both scum driven, as well as town driven.

Santos seems town to me, especially given with his meta.

One person attacking him though, has rubbed my scumdar the wrong way, but I shall see how this continues.

Why would you want to see how it continues? You are going to allow the person you think is scum to lynch a townie?

I can't find anything linking EJ to Socio but i can find a few things linking Socio to Detspeed. He thought STD or Detspeed was scum for no reason in this post

I swear, no matter what game it is I play in, if I am a regular townie, I am always a terrible player.

That is, unless he is just an Alt, then my read on him is shot to pieces.

Socio: Who do you suggest as scum then?

STD.

Clearly his only reasons were inside info. This was likly distancing. if there are 3 sicilans then I think the last one is Santos2. Socio also suspected him and this time for a bullshit reason

I expect this will be a boring day..

oEJo is obviously the lynch today, but there's no reason to just rush to it without letting everyone make a comment or 2 about stuff.

Like for example, how STD is scum, and Santos MK II is his scum buddy. All of day 1, STD his play was pretty good townie play...right up until it was revealed he was a neighbor. From that point, it was less of an uninformed majority viewpoint from him, to a more of knowing what was going on. The blatentness of trying to look as uniformed as he did, while every other neighbor didn't even try to feign ignorance, rubs me the wrong way. Most likely scum trying to appear as uninformed as possible, but not knowing where to draw the line. His guity conscience only became more apparent with his reaction to me saying his name.

Vote: Save The Dragons
Vote: Rope

For Santos MKII, rereplacing into the game, call it a hunch.

Vote: Santos MK II
Vote: Rope

But for the sake of today for lynching obvious scum:

Vote: oEJo
Vote: Gun

As far as parter, I have few ideas, the only one that stands out though is Empking with his anxiousness to lynch both days, brief typing style when otherwise not lurking, and general elusiveness.

Thank you for pointing out your scum buddies to us.

Posts 951, 971, 973
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 37#1395237
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 39#1397239
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 39#1397239
It would appear Bird111 made a mod error on page 39. Santos2 was already voting detspeed, then he unvoted which would give detspeed one less vote and then he somehow hammered? Long story short though, this reveals to us 2 things.
1) Detspeed was already on detspeed wagon (Third on to be precise, which was when detspeed had little evidence against him.)
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 40#1379540
2) It also reveals that santos paniced when detspeed selfvoted. He paniced to the point where he obviously forgot where his vote was and thus desperatly tried to hammer his buddy

without really giving any reasoning of his own.

Pattern much? Nice job taking a page from Sociopath's playbook right there.

I am a

Mafia Goon

, but I am not telling you which one

I choose

CarnCarn

to claim next.

Nice Claim. DIE!

_________________

Hers what i got on Zazy

Are you allowed to quote PM's?! Because i think you just made a mistake.

Either she knew what the neighbor pm looked like because her scumbuddy showed it to her pregame (I assume scum could talk pregame) or she is assuming this is a real pm based on her knowledge of having a scum buddy that is a neighbor. Zazy shows specifically that she is EJ's partner in these posts.

Am I getting the blame that PP left?
This was my second game with him and I was probably the nicest to him in the first. He called me a *Beep* probably due to the third game.

CC, I was hoping that the

other scum

would kill oEJo for us. That's why I posted it. I was hoping that they would when someone gave a comment about it. But this plan was destroyed when someone gave a comment to my plan.

Need to do a reread as the new guy posts long posts and I need to look for some scummy things.

I think this could be a slip. First you wanted EJ to stay alive longer which would help your group and second you said other scum group since you can't shoot your own buddy.

I don't like all this attention regarding the neighbours. Santos acts scummy. oEJo has the strangest argument regarding his vote. But all the other neighbours are getting the attention of being a neighbour. I don't think from what I've seen this game that they deserve it. I think I need to check those players who are putting a lot of attention at the neighbours.

This post shows more favoritism toward EJ and Satnos1 pair being under suspicion. Zazy should be shot if 3/3.

_________________

Post 551 Ribwich shows that if its 3/3 he is partners with someone in EJ&Santos1 pairing.

Alright, first off I'm going to apologize for not delivering on the post by post analysis I had previously promised. I was working on it, but it was just taking way too long to do.

Regarding the neighbor roles, I don't think we should go too much into it. There's just too many possibilites for what could happen even with 3 groups

(And I have suspicions that there could be a fourth group as well.)

1. T-T T-S1 T-S2
2. T-T T-T S1-S2
3. T-T T-T T-T
4. T-S1 T-S2 T-SK
5. T-S1 T-S2 S1-S2

There's some that are much more likely than others, but in the end it turns into a matter of outguessing the mod. Where I do think this will come in handy though is in trying to figure out which lynch method to use later on in the game. Once we have somebody that is confirmed scum, if we suspect another person in the neighbor groups, we can use the symmetry to find out what they're immune to. I don't think we should use the symmetry to find out WHO to target, but instead should use it to figure out HOW to target them.
...

I do believe Santos is scum for many of the other reasons people have brought up. There is one post he has made though that everyone else seemed to have disliked for an entirely different reason than me though.

...

Vote: Santos
Vote: Gun

At first he doesn't want to lynch the neighbors and then he goes back and undermines himself in the same post by voting a neighbor. He obviously knew someone in the pairing was scum

but was not anxious to bus.

Which is why he implicated Santos1. if 3/3 He is obv EJ's scum buddy. You want further proof at what I'm getting at?

Now that the mod has confirmed that Santos was town, I do agree that the fact that oEJo did not know this does make him scum.

However, it might be in our best interest to not lynch him. We know that he's scum, but we don't which side he's on. The other scum team does though. I'm thinking we might want to go after somebody else, and let the scum deal with him. That way, oEJo still gets killed, we get another shot at killing scum today, and there's one less townie that could get potentially killed at night.

We're done here. He tried to give EJ an out or chance to stay alive longer. Scum almost never try to kill lynchbait or other scum on night1.

Does anyone agree with me that we would be better off letting the opposing scum team deal with oEJo?

In these posts Rib continues to give EJ's reprieves.

My take is that scum would naturally try to vote for the weapon they are immune to (under no pressure) and would try to WIFOM out if they are pressured. Like I said, it's not much to go on either way, but that's my reasoning.

Post 644^ What carn said after voting gun shortly before

Another point that's fairly weak: when he was voting Santos he still had his vote on gun. If he truly believed Santos was scum, he would have voted for the weapon he was immune to since obviously they couldn't be scum partners.

It isn't a lot to go off, but unless something else comes up I'm going to go ahead and

Vote: Rope

How rib saved EJ again in Post 645^

Unvote: oEJo

There's a possibility that I think a lot of people if not everybody has overlooked. I want to make sure about this before commiting to a lynch.

oEJo, other than the fact that your name would be switched with his, did you have the exact same role PM as Santos?

For Fuck's sake, if it 3/3 Shoot Chrono/Ribwich/Fonzie! Hell would you like more proof he had inside info EJ was scum. See posts 714 - 729. Carn was on the right track there.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 81#1351381
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 09#1351609
Well that's all I got for 3/3 scenario.

If its 2/2

then players with worst claims are more likly scum. Santos2 and Socio.

Couldn't find anything really linking Socio to EJ. As long as I did not misinterpretet the first post I quoted here. Meaning he would have more precise reasons for thinking santos1 was town. But since he did not mention his own attachment to EJ I'm fairly sure my read is right and he should be hung.

This would leave Santos 2 as EJ's partner. There were a couple of times he defended EJ as well so i suppose he could fit in that scum group:
First Santos2 post
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 56#1352056

What has been decided on the symmetry theory? I don't trust it, but I wouldn't want to ignore it either. Its really hard to decide. The only thing that really put me off was oEJo's lack of effort to explain his vote, but that has already been discussed and I'm over that issue. Ah well.

Unvote: Gun

oEJo will not hammer himself because he maintains he is town, right?

Santos2 unvote's gun which is what could kill EJ on that same day Nov 13 which is the same day santos2 came into the game

Idea: Cop investigates oEJo tonight and if he is NOT scum, then we move on. If he is scum, then we lynch him tomorrow?

Thoughts----

All those posts were on Nov 13 my Time zone

*Final summary*

[mrow]

Player Name

[col]Chace they are Scum[col]Chance they are Sic[col]They are Cors

Socio

[col]80[col]75[col]25

Santos2

[col]100[col]50[col]50

Zazy

[col]50[col]40[col]60

Fonz

[col]65[col]10[col]90

Carn

[col]00[col]45[col]55

Armlx

[col]00[col]55[col]45
I don't think armlx and carn are scum. If i was wrong I'd say Armlx was Sic for his slight early defense of Detspeed's newb card and Carn would be with EJ for slight indifference with voting HP leaves over voting obv scum EJ when santos1 was revealed town. BUt I'm not in the mood to discuss this further since I'm pretty sure both of them are town as my earlier post pointed out.

I got stronger impression of what scum group Socio is in over Santos. though i'm pretty sure they are both scum especially since Santos 2 confessed. Should we lynch santo2 or socio today?

[PokerFace]

Messed up that chart. chase they are scum is funny but should say chance they are scum and that last column should be "chance" they are corscian

[PokerFace]

I rather doubt he's town, because if its the scenario I think you are refering to, a vanilla claim could have worked just as well for that purpose

You can say the scenario out loud if you think its not getting a cross, or as long as you feel it is safe to say it out loud.

I think he is still at L-1 so no one has hammered yet.

[PokerFace]

Yay its better they cross, and not otherwise.

anything else to discuss?

[PokerFace]

hmm...

If 3/3 then Socio is likly Sicilian as explained earlier. Socio acted like he suspected STD/Detspeed and Santos2 because they were his scum buddies. Fonz and Zazy are corsicians by my earlier logic.

Now what logic is there that could make SP a Corsician (EJ's partner) and it 2/2. Well there was only 1 death on night 1 and no deaths on night 2. Since nobody claimed doc, a doc did not make a protect. Missing kills likly means at least 1 scum group tried to kill town and hit scum. Socio suspected STD and SantosII for pretty much crap to no reasons. So if the Corsicans (SP&EJ) did target Sicilians (STD/Det&Santos2) then that is another way Socio could have logically learned they were the 2 sicilians and gained is so called earlier suspicions. Why the hell did Santos claim scum thinking town couldn't win?

@All,

1) does this 2/2 logic seem practical and or stronger than the 3/3 logic?
2) Anybody notice any conections in play or defence/comments between SP and EJ?
3) Anybody else think it wierd [hp]leaves is only neighbor mentioned in morning scene besides carn?

[PokerFace]

Well that's an unexpected stroke of brilliance.

If Fonzie is scum with Zazie and we did fail to lynch a sicilian SP, then him and zazie could kill SP and win tonight assuming SP didn't kill one of them back. If Fonzie is scum with zazie this would be obv plan.

Fonzie sucessfully lynching his scum buddy now would be stupid. Him and SP would both live and the game would no matter what have a chance to continue when he already had a chance to win as corsc with Zazy. I suppose he could be using this kinda case to clear himself as scum but then he'd also be risking the chance that SP killed him tonight and that would auto-loose him and zazy the game if sp killed him. Fonz scum is efectivly crippling himself with this play that has bad chance of paying off. He can't be this dumb and scum.

He is likly town and I must have been off reading ribwich... only way to be certain of all this is to...

Vote: Zazier

Vote: Gun

Lynching Sociopath probably would make this entire process shorter but this way we can effectivly eliminate scum in the next 2 days while preparing for the possibility 3/3 exist with zaziercorscscum

[PokerFace]

well actually obv plan for fonz corscscum with zazy would be to not come up with this plan and somehow hang socio but either way this still gets only 3/3 I see as possibly existing

[PokerFace]

The worst case scenario here from my perspective is if somehow the corsicans are actually PF and SP, and even that's no worse than trying to lynch SP and failing.

One of us being corsician paired with SP is mathmatically the same as failing to lynch SP. Because that would that mean Zazier is the last siclian and we would be failing to lynch her. This would lead to SP and his real partner taking a huge risk because Zazy scum could kill one of them tonight. Which isn't the ideal when you consider SP and his partner would be better off hanging Zazy and winning the game today.

I have agreed with fonz's assessment of point 3 because of how SP suspected 2 already dead sicilians with practically no good logic. I thought it more likly he was their buddies but i guess its equally as likly he just failed to kill them on nights 1 and 2 when he was trying to kill town instead.

Still got no clue why santos2 was dumb enough to claim scum.

[PokerFace]

Ok it makes sence he would make that claim if it is 3/3. You are correct about that. From my/that point of view that would make me and armlx the only townies. But right now the way you are acting does not make sence with the vision I percieved you would have if you were scum with Zazy. Part or all of my read could be wrong and if you are town also, then 2/2 would be a reality and Santos2's claim would make about as much sence as giving George W. Bush a third term in office.

I'm still down with lynching Zazy like this, that is a good plan to account for 3/3 existing but if Zazy does turn up town then that leads me to conclude it is 2/2 SP is last scum. And Santos2 was only making that claim because he hoped he could trick us into making another failed lynch that he somehow thought could be turned into victory for his side. I either did some math wrong calculating what a mislynch of Santos2 would have meant yesterday in 2/2 or Santos took a risk he did not fully understand.

or all this is mute and it is 3/3 and his claim made sence

[PokerFace]

You do realize how stupid it is to tell people who you're investigating a night before, right? If the game is not over then scum is still alive and you just told scum what you are going to do tonight. Wow, that was so smart. Scum can now plan to acomfort for your actions if you really were a cop. Way to over play your fake claim. Not even William Shatner overacts this much.

But its not like you can investigate anybody. Pretty sure your claim goes against game rules since rules say cops and docs got to choose what to do. And besides if it was 2 cops geared towards one groupeach, some neighbors that 'might' get confirmed after scum in their groups die, and 2/2 scum (who can survive nks with 1 cop who can see them and 1 that can't) that feels unbalanced toward town with 2 cops. While 1 cop that must choose, some neighbors that 'might' get confirmed after scum in their groups die, and 2/2 (who can survive some nks and investigations) is more fair.

3/3 with neighbors and 1 cop could also be balanced I suppose. Waiting on zazy's reveal for final verdict I guess.

From the amounts of neighbors and pairings, this game seems to rely heavily on symmetry, with a cop each having the ability to find half the scum and useless for the other half.
(Reminds me of the Elemental Cult Mafia game with 4 Cults and cops each being able to find 2 of the 4.)

Pretty sure cult cops in that game turned up cop and it said who they could and could not get guilties on in their death scenes. Moses just read as cop so he was not geared for sicilians only.

[PokerFace]

Thanks for the game bird. A very good game for me to play before temp leave. It had neighbors in various combinations and was run while at a time I was eventually able to replace into. Thanx big time

The game kinda feels balanced towards the town now especially with fonzie's role.

Santos made that claim presumably thinking he could trick us into using the wrong weapon I guess. That's the only thing that makes sence and I guess it isn't such a stupid suggestion now. But Socio gave that BS cop claim that pointed out the right weapon to use. Socio knew the right weapon because he was in the other group. I can now see why Socio is killed when he is scum. That claim was bad and broke rule. He should have made his claim to encompass the rules so he could be a cop identical to what we expected of moses. More than one cop is possible in a game so its not like he was going to be counter claimed.

I so called this:

Night Choices:
Night 1:
ribwich chose to be immune to Corsican
Moses investigated Santos II for Corsican ties, got innocent

Corsicans townie killed Santos II

Sicilians townie killed Riceballtail

Night 2:
ribwich choose to be immune to Sicilians
Moses investigated ribwich for Corsican ties, got innocent
Sicilians failed to send in a kill

Corsicans townie killed Save the Dragons/Detspeed

Good game everyone. Fonz had and awesome plan and it would have stopped 3 if there was three. When he came up with it I knew he had to be town, but the only way I could convince him I was town too was to follow through with it. Sorry about the lynch there Zazy. You were at the wrong place at the wrong time but it wasn't like we weren't gauranteed to beat 2/2 by that point already so hope you ain't mad.

I wouldn't call his thing a paranoia exercise for 2 reasons. It made perfect sence too me. Socio was obv scum with that claim while Fonz and Zazy were just possible scum. Lynching either possibility pretty much confirmed the other and the desire to lynch one did the same. What he said in the posts after made it feel like he read my mind. Very good plan for 3/3 though it was unecessary. We could have lynched Socio a day before and won but I guess erroring with the side of caution wasn't so bad.

Fonzie likly didn't full claim because a townie claimed nk imunity makes little sence especially when scum is able to be imune to a single scum groups kills already. Making a full claim would draw suspicion from town while keeping the skill secret kept the skill hidden from scum and kept him more protected. Good move just claiming Vanilla me thinks. Nice job on plan and claim buddy.

This thing was good fun. GG all. Thanx Bird

[PokerFace]

You are correct, lynching Socio day 6 was the simple probable course of action while lynching Zazi and then Socio was the longer but definate course to success.

I'm still amazed you came up with that kinda plan I don't think I would of thought of it as fast as you did in your shoes with your role. Battle Mage's play in this game was really good and had we replaced each other's people I don't think I would have laid out or thought of such a plan though I guess that depends on how you would have acted in his role too. It's always good to plan with you Fonz.

This game was a good read and then a real good time when I actually started getting down to business. I hope I get the chance to play with alot of you guys again some time. Later.

[PokerFace]

I'm guessing that's a typo since I can't see corsicans/socio being dumb enough to shoot him again townie style after failing to killing him like that previously.

You were pretty much confirmed town at that point so I can definatly see them killing you.