Secret Hitler (Game Over)

[Something_Smart]

Hey, guess who's basically confirmed not Hitler.

explain

There was little to no resistance to that government, I certainly didn't expect it to be defeated that soundly.

If I'm Hitler it would mean at least two, and more likely three, fascists neined because they expected 4/6 liberals to nein it. I don't know where that expectation would come from, especially if a liberal nominated it. (And if a fascist nominated Hitler, then why in the hell would he nein it?)

(Furthermore, there's confirmed one fascist in BuJaber/inspi and both could have made a perfectly reasonable justification for jaing-- inspi because he clearly trusts me over Mitillos, and Bu because he was the one who suggested this.)

(Double furthermore, Hitler is supposed to play the long game. While getting into a 1v1 as Hitler is not unheard of, me calling Mitillos fascist should be another data point in favor of "S_S is not Hitler".)

[Mitillos]

I will allow everyone to give their thoughts and respond to each other's questions. I'd also like to hear Nico's response. On Thursday, I will nominate Reck, unless someone can convince me by then that there is a better strategy.

[Something_Smart]

If 6 people say they will nein you no matter who you pick, can you stop wasting everyone's time?

[Something_Smart]

Actually we only need 5. And we already have 2 in BuJaber and me.

[Mitillos]

Conversation is good for town, and not a waste of time. If discussion dies down before Thursday (i.e. one full day without any new posts), I will make my nomination.

[BuJaber]

I actually think 2.7's response was very townie. I hadn't thought of it like that. If I gave that explanation to my usual board game group I think I'd be treated as conf scum but it really makes sense as lib. My group's too shallow. I think that makes nico the last scum.

Of course we don't have actual election evidence for 2.7's slot. But it looks like nsg is scum by PoE. Or NM is scum but not hitler.

[2 718281828459]

It is very unfortunate that I had to lose my chance to be president to help convince you that I am a good pick for president...

I will not insta-nein Mitillos, but I have varying levels of suspicion on anyone except xRECKONERx and one other that I forgot (I think it was nsg/Klick); those two I think are liberal.

[2 718281828459]

I still think that S_S has a decent chance of being hitler.

[Mitillos]

Yet you nominated him? That's pretty anti-lib of you...

[Something_Smart]

If I understand correctly it was trying to bait out jas from fascists.

But he failed to bait anyone who's actually participating in the game (and I don't think Nico's vote is meaningful as she'd probably ja whatever as liberal), so whatever it is, his posterior probability (don't laugh) of me being Hitler must be lower than his prior probability was.

[Mitillos]

The problem is that on one hand there is the baiting jas from fascists, and on the other is the automatic loss of the game should Hitler be elected, which would only take two liberal jas. If he really thought there was a decent chance you were Hitler, that would have been too big of a risk to take. If anything, I'm even more suspicious of 2.718 because of all this.

And don't worry; I'm a mathematician, I won't laugh. I might chuckle a bit, though.

[inspiratieloos]

I still think that S_S has a decent chance of being hitler.

I get thinking he's a fascist, but why Hitler? Accusing Mitillos as a fascist is guaranteed to eliminate him from governments until at least the later stages of the game with a high chance of getting in a situation like this where we'll probably not even have to bother figuring out which of them is fascist. That might be acceptable to a normal fascist, but as Hitler it's almost game throwing.

[2 718281828459]

Well, the consensus

was

that I would be neined, and in all honesty I expected 10 neins. So, the chances of all four fascists voting ja was pretty low, and even then, it would still require two liberals, who are supposed to follow a plan not to elect me at least for now.

inspiratieloos, I did not say "S_S is definitely hitler! Everyone try to assassinate S_S asap or else I call you fascist!" I said "S_S has a decent chance of being hitler". And I have played enough secret hitler to know that hitler can certainly accuse a fasc and try to gain trust by appearing to be on the "liberal side" of a FvF argument. Not saying that it necessarily

is

happening, but it definitely

can

.

[Something_Smart]

And I have played enough secret hitler to know that hitler can certainly accuse a fasc and try to gain trust by appearing to be on the "liberal side" of a FvF argument. Not saying that it necessarily

is

happening, but it definitely

can

.

Sure, that's a totally valid play and I've done it myself.

But do you think Mitillos is arguing like he wants to lose? Clearly he's calculating enough to know that, in that situation, he WANTS to look suspicious.

[BuJaber]

How obvious do you think he'd be though?

He's not exactly the most obvious townie. If I had 0 info I'd be unsure between you two. But inspi's actions around/toward you and your voting history compared to mitilos' points to you being allied with Inspi.

I wouldn't have pegged you for hitler it would come as a surprise for sure. We don't need to pick you though. Too late for that plan.

[Mitillos]

@2.718: I'm not sure where you're getting that consensus idea. Reck at some point said he'd rather be in a government with you than with me; N_M, mallow, and NR have been quiet; S_S didn't have you in his exclusion list and said he'd vote ja if you took Reck or Nico; and inspi said he'd ja himself, S_S, or Reck (later he also said to skip three times, but that's another story). Really, the only two players who said they were categorically going to nein you throughout were BuJ and me. nsg just said she wanted to skip your presidency in a rather off-hand way, so we could possibly add her. Three out of ten is hardly a consensus.

Also, welcome, Klick. Sorry I forgot to say this before.

[Something_Smart]

Well, the consensus was that I would be neined

Huh, I saw it very differently. Several people expressed support for BuJaber's idea, and nobody (except Mitillos) was really overtly against me being chancellor.

What made you think this? (Clearly you were right, but it was a result I didn't expect.)

[2 718281828459]

The "consensus" thing was because you, Mitillos, and BuJ were (from my view) dominating the conversation (in a way I only take offense to if a fasc does it), and I figured that most of the quiet people would just go along with the plan that supposedly had a 90% chance of working. I kept going back and forth between trusting the plan and not trusting it.

[Mitillos]

Hey, Reck, stop spying on Deku sleeping and come give your thoughts.

[Mitillos]

Well, I think it's time.

Nominate: Reck

[2 718281828459]

I think I trust Reck, but I am not sure about Mitillos. This will be a tough one.

flips coin

[xRECKONERx]

Hey, Reck, stop spying on Deku sleeping and come give your thoughts.

idk what this means

[Mitillos]

Your avatar, spying on another character from the same series, while said character sleeps.

[xRECKONERx]

i have this avatar because i lost a bet

[Ausuka]

Mitillos has chosen xRECKONERx as the chancellor. Please PM me "Ja" if you want to vote for the government to come into power, or "Nein“ if you do not.