Secret Hitler (Game Over)

For completed/abandoned Mish Mash Games.
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Post Post #625 (ISO) » Tue Aug 28, 2018 10:53 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 622, Klick wrote:Every game of Secret Hitler I’ve seen revolved way too much around attempted setup breaking and not enough around reads.
That's because discussion in Secret Hitler is tepid at best and that combined with the high proportion of scum makes reads awful in general.

If you have one or two pet reads based on personal experience with a player, then that's probably +EV for town, but otherwise playing on reads over mechanics is likely to be -EV.

This is a case in point; you've never played with me (aside from One Night Werewolf which hardly counts), and I'm hard to read in regular mafia, let alone here where I'm mostly arguing mechanics.
I think there’s scum motivation in trying to direct gameplay solely via what’s statistically likely, because it limits opportunities to obtain reads.
This is true if you assume that forming reads is good for town. I'm not so sure that it is. Especially since, in the case of someone like me, it's impossible to remove mechanics from my view of the game, so any pure reads from me would either be informed by mechanics and so not pure reads, or utter garbage.

And more than half the players in this game have something to their POV that they can't get rid of. So be warned. If you're looking for what appears to be real reads, you're gonna get fake ones a lot more easily.
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Post Post #626 (ISO) » Tue Aug 28, 2018 10:54 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Also... welcome to the game! :P
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Post Post #627 (ISO) » Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:18 pm

Post by inspiratieloos »

In post 607, Mitillos wrote: @BuJ: I believe that your plan involved Reck picking someone between the four people involved in investigations. This doesn't mean we skip three times, and get a random policy first. That would have been a waste of an execution, something desirable only to fascists (*cough* inspi *unconvincing cough*), since it reduces the likelihood of a liberal wincon. The plan can still happen, now that it doesn't take 3 neins in a row to carry out.
Yes, we'd lose an execution in exchange for not running the risk of getting an execution in the hands of a Fascist or of it turning out Reck was Hitler and auto-lose. I took it as a given that no one would vote for you as a president (that didn't go as expected...), Fascist!2.7 or Fascist!NR could have just shot Reck or NM while you're a lot more constrained because open sabotage would make SS conf!Liberal.



Overall I don't think it actually matters
that
much who gets shot here.

You shoot Reck or NM -> SS is Conf!Liberal, you shoot anyone else -> we still probably win off Reck's and NM's presidencies even if you buried a Liberal*, if we don't win off those it's still a 50/50 between BuJ and me, if you shoot me it's a 50/50 between BuJ and SS.

Pedit:*and with presumably all Liberals voting for those it doesn't really matter whether it's 5v4 or 6v3.
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Post Post #628 (ISO) » Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:20 pm

Post by 2 718281828459 »

Hold it... how does Mitillos being fascist confirm SS as liberal? You will probably say that the other 3 fascists are accounted for, but we do not know that for sure and "confirmed" is a strong word.
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Post Post #629 (ISO) » Tue Aug 28, 2018 8:52 pm

Post by BuJaber »

But we know that SS investigated Mitillos and claimed he was fascist.
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Post Post #630 (ISO) » Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:08 am

Post by Klick »

The possibility of them both being fascist is still there, albeit small.
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Post Post #631 (ISO) » Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:27 am

Post by xRECKONERx »

klick y is ur avatar me
green shirt thursdays
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Post Post #632 (ISO) » Wed Aug 29, 2018 4:49 am

Post by Klick »

I posted in Shadow’s April Fools thread this year, this is what happened
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Post Post #633 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2018 2:32 am

Post by Mitillos »

Well, I still think that the best choice is NR. BuJ suggested shooting inspi, but I think he is less likely to be Hitler than NR is, given his behaviour. And since I also think she is likely to be fascist, even if she turns out to not be Hitler, I'm inclined to go with NR over inspi on this one.

However, I will wait until Saturday, in case anyone else wants to voice their opinion.
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Post Post #634 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2018 3:06 am

Post by mallowgeno »

I'm confused as to why you wouldn't shoot SS? If he said you were a facist and if you are not a facist wouldn't you just shoot SS? He's clearly not on your side.
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Post Post #635 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:00 am

Post by BuJaber »

He's greedy and wants to try and win right now
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Post Post #636 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:05 am

Post by Mitillos »

@mallow: I've repeatedly said that S_S is almost certainly not Hitler (since he accused me, thus making it harder for himself to be elected) and that I'd rather try to shoot Hitler. If you're confused, then you haven't been reading my posts too carefully.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
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Post Post #637 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:20 am

Post by mallowgeno »

In post 636, Mitillos wrote:@mallow: I've repeatedly said that S_S is almost certainly not Hitler (since he accused me, thus making it harder for himself to be elected) and that I'd rather try to shoot Hitler. If you're confused, then you haven't been reading my posts too carefully.
Ah I remember why I stopped commenting on this thread thank you
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Post Post #638 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2018 5:09 am

Post by Klick »

For what it's worth, I agree with mallow in that it makes a lot more sense to go for something that's a guaranteed net positive in shooting someone that's confirmed to be scum for you. In fact, S_S should have a higher-than-random chance of being Hitler for you, being of the same alignment.
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Post Post #639 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2018 5:39 am

Post by Mitillos »

Absent other information, yes, he would have a higher than random chance. But he advocated against either of us being in any government, and tried to indirectly protect others from being excluded, which changes the calculus.
The thing is that I consider the gain in shooting S_S lower than the expected gains from shooting NR.
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Post Post #640 (ISO) » Sat Sep 01, 2018 7:36 am

Post by Mitillos »

OK, so I've been rereading, and I've come around to what you guys have been saying. It's probably better to get rid of a guaranteed fascist, to reduce the number of their votes, just in case NR happens to be a liberal, after all. Worst case, if Reck or N_M end up getting a fascist policy, they can shoot NR instead, since they will have more information.
I will give everyone a few more hours, if they want to chime in, and then I'll shoot S_S.
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Post Post #641 (ISO) » Sat Sep 01, 2018 8:30 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 605, Something_Smart wrote:deciding his own shot rather than agreeing to be leashed should be taken as a scumclaim.
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Post Post #642 (ISO) » Sat Sep 01, 2018 11:56 am

Post by 2 718281828459 »

Mitillos
, answer the following questions:
1. What, in your view, is the probability of NicoRobin being Hitler?
2. If not, is there any chance that Nico could be vanilla Fascist?
3. Is the probability of instantly winning the game versus being down to 5v4 better than the certainty of shooting a fascist but then still having to work for a liberal win?

Personally, I would suggest that the remaining 9 players (or as many of them as possible) should informally vote on who to shoot, and Mitillos should agree to shoot the one who gets the most votes.
VOTE: NicoRobin

Votecount 1NicoRobin (1) - 2.718
Not Voting (8) - all others

With 9 alive apart from Mitillos, a majority is 5.
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Post Post #643 (ISO) » Sat Sep 01, 2018 11:56 am

Post by 2 718281828459 »

(Before you say anything: I do not think SS is certainly fascist -- I simply addressed the question to someone who does.)
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Post Post #644 (ISO) » Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:15 pm

Post by Mitillos »

@2.718: If I were forced to put numbers on it, I'd say that there's about a 50% chance of her being Hitler. You'd be second most likely with something like a 33% chance, and then mallow, nsg, inspi, S_S, and Buj with significantly smaller chances, in decreasing order. If NR is not Hitler, she could still be a vanilla fascist, but the probability of that is very small, as it is less likely that both you and she are fascists. If I shoot S_S, then we'd still be relying on a bit of luck, in terms of the cards falling the right way. The next two presidents are not going to be an issue, so it's mostly a matter of avoiding fascist chancellors and getting a liberal card on each of them. Neither option is great, but I don't think one is significantly better than the other, after all. Also, I'm not sure why you wouldn't want me voting. I'm part of this game too...

Anyway, fine, I can wait to see if people will at least agree to voice their opinion through a vote, rather than just give pointless and incorrect rhetoric.
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Post Post #645 (ISO) » Sat Sep 01, 2018 6:20 pm

Post by BuJaber »

I mean I want you to shoot Inspi on the off chance SS is being buddied and you're the fascist.

Though to be fair you could have shot reck or NM already as fascist.

If you really are town from your POV you should shoot SS and nobody else imo. It's your burden to show us you're town after that but in your position you only know 3 things for sure. Reck is not hitler. NM is not hitler. SS claimed you are a fascist.

If you're liberal you know there's no motivation for SS to do that as another liberal.

I don't agre that we need to take a risk and shoot nico. 5-4 guarantees we win every vote. All that needs to happen is to vote for the conftowns and we will win.
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Post Post #646 (ISO) » Sat Sep 01, 2018 7:19 pm

Post by Mitillos »

The thing is, from my POV, shooting S_S certainly turns the game into 6-3, but is unlikely to end it. Shooting Nico has a chance to end the game, and otherwise probably turns the game into 5-4, with a small chance of 6-3. I'm just having a lot of difficulty deciding which course of action gives us the best chances of winning.
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Post Post #647 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2018 2:25 pm

Post by Mitillos »

OK, I've gone back and forth enough on this. I don't know if this is the correct choice, but I believe it is. I don't think we have to worry about the votes not falling the right way at this late stage. I think that there is a good enough chance that this will end the game now, that I'm willing to risk it. I hope I am correct; if I am not, all I can do now is apologise in advance.

Execute: Nico Robin
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Post Post #648 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2018 2:39 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

Almost posted
Yeah, that was Hitler. GG liberals.
to see if I could get any good reactions, but I figured the odds of a genuine town reaction are slim enough and that's mean enough that it's not worth yanking people's chains like that.

On the contrary, if the game WERE over I would definitely know it and would be telling you so you wouldn't have to wait. So no. Nico was not Hitler. I'm still lost on the logic of why Hitler would be quiet rather than actively trying to play the long game, but whatever.

I'm not dead, which is only a good thing if people actually start listening to me. (And they'd better, because otherwise it's effectively 4v4 and you've already lost-- unless you think that Mitillos would bus Nico rather than just shooting me, when shooting me was probably the smarter option from his POV anyway.) And... I should definitely be more trusted than Mitillos, especially now that his "risky shot" turned out to be wrong.
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Post Post #649 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:06 pm

Post by BuJaber »

I don't understand your post
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