Guess Half of the Average [OVER]

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Guess Half of the Average [OVER]

Post Post #0 (ISO) » Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:56 pm

Post by 2 718281828459 »

Congratulations Aronis for winning...


This is a really simple guessing game. The winner is the player who guesses closest to one-half of the average of all guesses.
EDIT
: Streamlined the process so you can submit your guess at any time in the next 14 days.
Rules:
  • Each player will choose a real number between 0 and 1000 inclusive. Numbers will be rounded, I have not decided what they will be rounded to (but it will be at least 3 decimal places).
  • When the deadline expires, I will reveal everyone's numbers, add them up, and divide by twice the number of players.
    1. Anyone who wishes to participate has 14 days to send me a PM with there number. Countdown: (expired on 2018-07-07 20:00:00) (If there are not at least 10 players, this will be extended by one week.)
    2. After that expires, I will (try to) post who won. The winner is whoever guesses closest to half of the average of all guesses. Ties are considered to be a win for all tied players.
Now, as you may know (or have figured out), in a purely rational world everyone should pick 0. However, this strategy may not work.

But you know what,
I will play, and my number will be 0.
You are more than welcome to also pick 0, or pick something else out of spite, or pick something else because you know someone else will pick something higher... whatever you want. It is your number. (I am only writing my number publicly so I cannot cheat. You will write it in a PM to me.)

I mean, if you
want
to discuss the game or say your number or lie about your number, go ahead... this is a very relaxed game anyway.
Last edited by 2 718281828459 on Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:23 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Post Post #1 (ISO) » Sat Jun 16, 2018 3:28 pm

Post by Ircher »

This game has zero interest; I did it and got literally two responses.

But sure, I'll play.
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Post Post #2 (ISO) » Sat Jun 16, 2018 3:35 pm

Post by 123456789 »

Also, don't round the numbers; simply round the average at the end. (Or if you round the submitted guesses, I would suggest at least 10 decimal places so we aren't losing precision.)

What if no one guesses the average? Does everyone lose?
"You learn mathematics by doing mathematics."
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Post Post #3 (ISO) » Sat Jun 16, 2018 4:12 pm

Post by NotAJumbleOfNumbers »

/in
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Post Post #4 (ISO) » Sun Jun 17, 2018 6:40 am

Post by 2 718281828459 »

If no one guesses the average (which is probability ~1 if people pick things like pi and logs and sqrts) then whoever is closest wins.

I have changed the rules so you now simply have 14 days to submit your number starting when I wrote that post (no 7-day wait period). The deadline will be extended one week if there are < 10 players.
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Post Post #5 (ISO) » Tue Jun 19, 2018 4:13 pm

Post by Ircher »

You should guarantee that you will submit the number 1000, but you will win if half the average is (to 10 decimal places) is 0.
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Post Post #6 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2018 3:12 am

Post by 2 718281828459 »

Ircher, that would make it impossible for me to win.
Bumping thread again.
Only about one week left!
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Post Post #7 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2018 11:07 am

Post by Ircher »

I mean, you really shouldn't win most of the time.
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Post Post #8 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2018 3:49 pm

Post by 2 718281828459 »

I know, and I am completely at the mercy of the other players. It is just that I want it to be
possible
for me to win, even if it is
unlikely
. Under your rules, the ONLY way I can win is if EVERYONE picks 1000, right?

Really, the reason I picked 0 is because if I win, then everyone is playing logically, which would be a good thing.

Also, ties are considered to be a win for everyone in the tie.
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Post Post #9 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2018 4:05 pm

Post by Ircher »

Okay, your guess is 500. That encourages people not to guess zero but gives you a (small) chance to win.
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Post Post #10 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2018 4:05 pm

Post by Ircher »

Or just randomize your guess using the dice tag publicly.
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Post Post #11 (ISO) » Mon Jun 25, 2018 2:41 am

Post by 2 718281828459 »

Maybe you could just let me run my game the way I want to run it. I highly doubt (given what I know so far) that I will win anyway.
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Post Post #12 (ISO) » Sat Jun 30, 2018 2:43 am

Post by 2 718281828459 »

Deadline Extended by One Week
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Post Post #13 (ISO) » Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:17 am

Post by Gosrir Elmer Odels »

I'll bite the bullet, & guess 1000. There. PM'ing you.
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Post Post #14 (ISO) » Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:25 am

Post by Gosrir Elmer Odels »

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Post Post #15 (ISO) » Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:20 am

Post by 2 718281828459 »

Guesses
  • Blackberry - 2,000,000
    Invalid for being over 1000
  • Gosrir Elmer Odels - 100
  • Ircher - 0.60532
  • Aronis - 2
  • NotAJumbleOfNumbers - a little more than 0
  • Me - 0
Valid responses: 5
Sum: 102.60532
Average: (about 20)
Half Average: (about 10)

WINNER: Aronis

Second place: Ircher
Third place: NAJON
Fourth place: me
Fifth place: Gosrir

Thanks to all who participated!
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